asterisk2a + tltro   29

Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! - Volles Risiko &! &! &! Market Reaction - &! - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&!
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  zombie  banks  deleveraging  Debt  Super  Cycle  secular  stagnation  consumer  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  household  car  loan  credit  card  student  loan  student  loan  student  Bubble  generation  rent  OMT  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  Agenda  2010  low  pay  low  income  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  velocity  of  money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
Europe  European  Union  deflationary  deflation  Fiscal  Pact  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Schuldenbremse  austerity  2016  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  babyboomers  Germany  policy  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  George  Osborne  G20  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
From Ticker - S&P: QE is driving inequality between the generations
Quantitative easing (QE) stabilized the economy but also exacerbated wealth disparity between rich and poor, mainly by boosting financial asset prices and house prices. //&! [ LOW PAY MINIMUM WAGE JOB CREATION ] During the U.K.’s recent “jobs-rich, pay-poor” economic recovery, strong employment gains were accompanied by a further rise of already high wage dispersion and an ever-growing share of part-time employment in lower income groups. //&! In the context of the tight housing market, low interest rates and QE are among the drivers behind the widening wealth and income gap between younger and older generations and between those on the housing ladder and those not on it. //&! Inequality is damaging! // - Bank of England's recovery policies have increased inequality, finds S&P [...] spending too much on rent, not able to save for deposit! //&! &!
QE  inequality  reflate  reflation  distortion  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  ECB  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  budget  deficit  austerity  George  Osborne  income  distribution  poverty  trap  tax  credit  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  Tories  nasty  party  homeless  homelessness  social  affordable  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Funding  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Europäische Zentralbank weitet Anleihenkäufe aus - Dax bricht ein - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank öffnet die Geldschleusen noch weiter. Ihr umstrittenes Anleihenkaufprogramm soll mindestens sechs Monate länger laufen als geplant. Anleger reagieren enttäuscht: Der Dax bricht zeitweise um mehr als drei Prozent ein. //&! Die EZB hat den sogenannten Einlagensatz von minus 0,2 auf minus 0,3 Prozent gesenkt. Damit wird es für Banken noch teurer, überschüssiges Geld bei der Zentralbank zu parken. -
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Blackrock-Vize Hildebrand kritisiert europäische Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Hildebrand: Nein, dafür sehe ich keine Anzeichen. Aber was mich schon besorgt, ist das Muster, dass frappantes Fehlverhalten europäischer Firmen immer wieder von amerikanischen Behörden aufgedeckt wird. Das scheint mir das wahre Problem zu sein. Ich denke da nicht nur an VW, sondern auch an die Banken oder an die Fifa. [...] Die Amerikaner dagegen sind das Problem schon 2009 angegangen, und die Banken sind schnell wieder gesundet. In Europa hat man es unter den Teppich gekehrt. [...] Europa hat zwei Probleme, und ein wesentliches davon ist ein Nachfrageproblem: Die Wirtschaft ist nicht ausgelastet, auch die Arbeitslosigkeit ist nach wie vor zu hoch. Und die Inflation liegt nahe null. [...] Europa hat auch ein Strukturproblem. Arbeits- und Produktmärkte sind überreguliert. [ Re Credit Bubble ] Niemand weiß genau, was geschieht, wenn diese Politik einmal umgekehrt wird.
VW  bank  bailout  FIFA  corporate  scandal  Volkswagen  sovereign  debt  crisis  too  big  to  bail  Grexit  European  Union  secular  stagnation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  deregulation  accountability  white-collar  crime  banking  investment  banking  retail  banking  recovery  MarioDraghi  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  GFC  economic  history  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  fiscal  monetary  Brussels  lost  decade  lostgeneration  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  austerity  Pact  Schuldenbremse  underinvestment  productive  investment  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  discretionary  spending  Sozialer  Abstieg  income  distribution  disposable  income  Brexit  credit  bubble  BRIC  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  Niall  Ferguson 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! // &! // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Was Angela Merkel noch alles angeboten hat - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Für den Fall, dass Tsipras die Verlängerung des aktuellen zweiten Hilfspakets zu den veränderten Konditionen akzeptiert hätte, bot Merkel ihm dem Vernehmen nach in einem letzten Gespräch am Freitag vergangener Woche unter anderem Folgendes an: ein drittes Hilfsprogramm, Schuldenerleichterungen, also eine teilweise Umschuldung, Investitionen in Höhe von rund 35 Milliarden Euro. // BUT NO debt jubilee/haircut and admitting that it was a EU bank bailout through the back door. // Counter-off on day 0 from Syriza; ESM to take on debt for two years. Another delay. Country will NOT start to grow in two years to pay off EFSF and IMF ... &! IMF pushes back on default scenario - &! Germany paid 85bn to EU banks (aka Greece Debt payments via EFSF, IMF and ECB ELA liability and bonds that ECB bought via their bank refinance programms (LTRO) via BuBa capital ownership of ECB) in case of default - // &! &!
Grexit  default  IMF  EFSF  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Union  Career  Politicians  economic  history  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  GFC  recovery  Great  Depression  Greece  austerity  Troika  ECB  Syriza  democracy  solidarity  political  error  political  economy  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  ESM  ELA  BuBa  Bundesbank  LTRO  TLTRO  MarioDraghi  Jean-Claude  Juncker 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
US-Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's: Rundumschlag gegen europäische Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die amerikanische Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's hält viele europäische Geldhäuser für weniger kreditwürdig. Die Bonitätswächter stuften die Deutsche Bank um zwei Noten zurück. Sie liegt nun nur noch knapp über Ramschniveau. [...] Hintergrund des Rundumschlags sind die neuen EU-Regeln, wonach Banken nicht mehr wie in der Finanzkrise darauf zählen können, vom Staat gerettet zu werden. Aus diesem Grund hatte Mitte Mai bereits die Ratingagentur Fitch die Kreditwürdigkeit mehrerer Banken herabgestuft. [ vs USA which has no no-bailout law. ]
EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  zombie  banks  Europe  PIGS  Grexit  Brexit  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  IMF  Troika  economic  history  GFC  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ECB  policy  monetary  policy  toobigtofail  TBTF  investment  banking  bailout  systemicrisk  banking  crisis  banking  union  sovereignty  Gramny  France 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
The Ashcroft Interviews: Money, Blood & Revolution - YouTube
George Cooper - broken economics << is in crisis. is not offering useful guidance for policy makers because of so much conflicting views that are taken at time and voiced at times very violently. "economics is akin to astrology." ... QE will create bigger future recession. &! neoclassical = trickle-down/trickle-through &! economics teaches you a wrong view / looking glass &! neoclassical view - getting richer and richer. is that really true? &! maintaining status quo &! self-interest &! Marx says capitalism is polarising
book  economics  economist  GFC  academia  academics  centralbanks  equilibrium  disequilibrium  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  overhang  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  inequality  social  cohesion  trickle-down  economics  liquidity  trap  Philosophy  LTRO  TLTRO  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  fairness  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  downward  mobility  social  safety  net  austerity  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Warum wir weiter Bargeld brauchen - Münchau zu Rogoff-Vorstoß - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Ich glaube nicht, dass es möglich ist, die Inflationsziele nach Belieben hin- und herzuschieben. Wir sehen doch gerade die Schwierigkeiten, die die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) damit hat, ihr gegenwärtiges Inflationsziel von knapp zwei Prozent zu erreichen. Wenn man Inflationsziele beliebig verschiebt, verlieren sie schnell an Glaubwürdigkeit. Die Menschen würden zu Recht vermuten, dass man die Ziele bald wieder verändert, wenn es kommod ist. Anstatt zu versuchen, die Inflationsziele zu verändern oder das Bargeld abzuschaffen, sollten wir unsere existierenden Probleme ernster nehmen. Die EZB hätte viel früher und viel energischer mit der geldpolitischen Lockerung anfangen müssen. Heute stellt sich die vordringliche Frage, wie wir ein Abdriften in japanische Verhältnisse vermeiden. Wir sollten uns von diesen wichtigen Themen nicht durch störende Scheindebatten ablenken lassen. Die Abschaffung des Bargeldes wird unsere Probleme nicht lösen.
fiat  currency  inflation  targeting  deflation  deflationary  Europe  economic  history  ECB  MarioDraghi  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  zombie  banks  business  confidence  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  LTRO  TLTRO  Structural  Impediments  PIGS  Angela  Merkel  Pact  Schuldenbremse  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  imbalance  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Demand  and  Supply  China  Russia  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Exportweltmeister  GFC  recovery  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  crony  capitalism  Lohnzurückhaltung  consumer  confidence  profit  maximisation  Future  of  Work  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  culture  society  business  Politics  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  compromise  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  flat  globalisation  globalization 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Capitalism in Crisis Amid Slow Growth and Growing Inequality - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself? [...] The buzzword is "inclusion" and it refers to a trait that Western industrialized nations seem to be on the verge of losing: the ability to allow as many layers of society as possible to benefit from economic advancement and participate in political life. & IMF talking about over 70% of EU banks are Zombie Banks.
Japan  economic  history  GFC  recovery  greatrecession  2014  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Abenomics  Richard  Koo  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  structural  deficit  liquidity  trap  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  disposable  income  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  deleveraging  NPL  zombie  banks  business  investment  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  balance  sheet  recession  creditcrunch  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  excess  Bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  unintended  consequences  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TARP  LTRO  TLTRO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  IMF  BIS  Europe  UK  USA 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Mayer und sein Buch "Die neue Ordnung des Geldes" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Je mehr ich mich damit beschäftigte", erzählt er, "desto klarer wurde mir, dass das ein Problem im System ist." [...] "Wir haben die erste Runde der Krise bekämpft, aber wir kommen nicht mehr raus aus der Politik des billigen Geldes." [...] Gold ist für ihn ein "barbarischer Rohstoff", der im Modell der Österreichischen Schule eigentlich nur als Ersatz für das nötige Vertrauen der Bürger in eine Währung fungiere. Dennoch müsse die Geldmenge natürlich begrenzt werden. Den Banken und Staaten will Mayer deshalb jeden Zugriff auf die Schöpfung neuen Geldes entziehen. Er spricht von einem "Aktivgeldsystem".
book  GFC  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  BIS  IMF  Fed  academia  economic  history  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  LTRO  TLTRO  Bailout  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  transmission  mechanism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  fiat  currency  economic  model  economics  macroeconomics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
IWF-Treffen in Washington: Kritik an Geldpolitik von Draghi - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In der Tat sind es nicht mehr die Deutschen allein, die auf die Gefahren der dauerhaft niedrigen Zinsen hinweisen. Auch anderswo bekommt man ob der Billiggeldschwemme ein mulmiges Gefühl. Auf den Finanzmärkten würden die Investoren teilweise sehr hohe Risiken eingehen, warnt etwa Claudio Borio, Chefökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsgleich in Basel. In der Realwirtschaft, wo eigentlich investiert werden soll, seien die Unternehmen dagegen eher risikoscheu. Borio nennt das eine Störung im System. &
IMF  BIS  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  distortion  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  trust  trustagent  business  confidence  confidence  consumer  confidence  liquidity  trap  ECB  BOE  Fed  MarioDraghi  Germany  PIGS  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  working  poor  underemployed  squeezed  middle  class  Demand  and  Supply  Lohnzurückhaltung  deflation  deflationary  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Europe  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Exportweltmeister  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  economic  history  globalization  globalisation  disposable  income  flat  ABS  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  UK  USA  lost  decade  lost  generation  Policy  Makers  education  fiscal  monetary  folly  error  complexity  unintended  consequences  academia  Taper  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  downward  mobility  social  mobility  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  Bailout  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  banking 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  TLTRO  OMT  ABS  LTRO  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  trust  trustagent  confidence  creditcrunch  economic  history  Europe  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  Exportweltmeister  Germany  BuBa  austerity  IMF  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  zombie  banks  distortion  business  business  confidence  BRIC  MINT  USA  UK  MarioDraghi  Demand  Shock  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  industrial  policy  manufacturing  Services  Industry  service  economy  service  recovery  GFC  2014  consumer  confidence  output  gap  productivity 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a

related tags

1%  21stcentury  Abenomics  ABS  Abstieg  abundance  academia  academics  account  accountability  AfD  affordable  ageing  Agenda  aggregate  algorithm  allocation  and  Angela  animal  asset  austerity  automation  aversion  avoidance  babyboomers  bail  bailout  balance  bank  banking  banks  behavioral  big  Bill  BIS  Blair  Blyth  BOE  BOJ  bond  book  Brexit  BRIC  Brown  Brussels  BuBa  bubble  bubbles  budget  budget2015  Bundesbank  bureaucrat  business  Buy  Cameron  campaign  Capital  capitalism  car  carbon  card  Career  Carney  cash  centralbanks  child  China  ChristineLagarde  class  coefficient  cohesion  Commission  commodity  competitive  competitiveness  complexity  compromise  confidence  consent  consequences  Conservative  consume  consumer  contract  Contractor  corporate  corporations  corruption  cost  Council  creation  Creative  Creatives  credit  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  creditrating  creditrisk  crime  crisis  crony  culture  currency  currency-war  current  cycle  damage  David  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  decade  default  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demand  democracy  demographic  deposit  Depression  deregulation  derivatives  devaluation  Developing  direct  discretionary  disequilibrium  disposable  distortion  distribution  distrust  divergence  doctor  dogma  Donald  downward  Draghi  Duncan  Eating  ECB  economic  economics  economist  economy  Ed  education  EFSF  ELA  election  Elephant  emerging  energy  equilibrium  equity  error  ESM  Establishment  Euro  Eurobond  Eurogroup  Europe  European  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  evasion  excess  expectation  Exportweltmeister  fairness  Fairy  faultlines  fear  Fed  Ferguson  fiat  FIFA  financial  fiscal  flat  flow  folly  for  foreign  France  Frontier  Fund  Funding  Future  G20  gap  Gates  general  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  George  Germany  GFC  Gini  global  globalisation  globalization  Gordon  Gramny  Great  greatrecession  Greece  Grexit  growth  haircut  headwinds  Help  history  homeless  homelessness  hot-money  Hour  household  housing  hunt  Iain  ideology  imbalance  imbalances  IMF  immigration  Impediments  incentive  income  industrial  Industry  inequality  inflation  infrastructure  Integrationspolitik  interest  investment  Is  jail  Japan  Jean-Claude  Jens  JGB  job  Jobs  Joseph  jubilee  Juncker  junk  KennethRogoff  Koo  Krugman  labour  Leiharbeit  Lending  levy  liquidity  liquidity-trap  loan  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  long-term  lost  lostgeneration  low  LTRO  Lügenpresse  M3  macroeconomic  macroeconomics  Makers  man  management  manufactured  manufacturing  marginal  MarioDraghi  Mark  market  Markets  Marktwirtschaft  maximisation  mechanism  Merkel  microeconomic  microeconomics  middle  migration  Miliband  MINT  Mobile  mobility  model  monetary  monetisation  monetization  money  moneysupply  mortgage  Mutual  nasty  negative  net  New  Niall  Niedriglohnsektor  NIRP  No  non-performing  Normal  NPD  NPL  OBR  OECD  of  Oil  oligarchy  OMT  Osborne  output  overhang  oversight  Pact  Parliament  part-time  party  Paul  pay  Philosophy  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Piketty  plutocracy  policy  political  politician  Politicians  Politics  POMO  poor  population  populism  poverty  PR  Precariat  precarious  price  prices  private  Privileged  productive  productivity  profit  promises  propaganda  propensity  property  public  Put  QE  quantitative-easing  R&D  rate  real  recession  Rechtsruck  recovery  redistribution  reflate  reflation  reform  refugee  regulation  regulators  rent  rent-seeking  rentier  repo  Representation  repression  Research  reserves  restructuring  retail  Rich  Richard  Right  risk  Robotics  Russia  safety  Salami  Save  savings  scandal  Scheme  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  Sector  secular  self-regulation  service  Services  servitude  shadow  shadowbanking  sheet  Shock  short-fall  short-term  short-termism  Sick  skills  Smith  SNP  social  society  Software  solidarity  sovereign  sovereignty  Soziale  Sozialer  Sozialpolitik  speculation  speculative  spending  spin  spirits  squeezed  stagflation  stagnation  state  STEM  Stiglitz  stimulus  Street  structural  student  Super  supply  Syriza  system  systemic  systemicrisk  Tactics  Taper  targeting  TARP  tax  TBTF  technocrat  The  theory  thinking  Thomas  TLTRO  to  Toff  Tony  too  toobigtofail  Tories  trade  transmission  transparency  trap  trichet  trickle-down  Troika  Trump  trust  trustagent  UK  UKIP  uncertainty  unconventional  underemployed  underinvestment  unemployment  unintended  union  unknown  unknowns  unkown  USA  USD  velocity  Venture  view  VIX  volatility  Volkswagen  VW  wage  Wall  war  warrenbuffet  Weidmann  welfare  western  White  white-collar  Wolfgang  work  working  world  Yen  yield  youth  Zeitarbeit  Zero  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark: