asterisk2a + seed   42

Pando: So we’ve all agreed: Zenefits will be the (guilty) scapegoat for all that went wrong in tech for the last five years
You don’t have to read everything Pando has written in the past few years to know some of the things we’re not big on. Bro-ish behavior, breaking laws, the cult of disruption, Silicon Valley companies hiring dangerous political operatives, and dictating your business strategy based on how much money you can raise. To name just a few. You only have to read Farhad Manjoo’s excellent piece on Zenefits last week that detailed how staff were told to turn their t-shirts inside out when they went to bars, or the Journal’s latest story about how Zenefits HR had to circulate a memo asking people not to have sex in the stairwells anymore to know this was a company right up there with “Boober” and the college emails of Evan Spiegel... //&! Zenefits: Were the Valley's kingmakers wrong, or did they just lie? - bit.ly/1SS6bDv //&! The Inside Story Of The Meltdown at $4.5 Billion Unicorn Zenefits - soundcloud.com/jay-yarow/zenefits - the sky is the limit! hyperbole. doubling every year... landgrab!
Zenefits  Uber  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  growth  round  hunt  for  yield  distortion  governance  corporate  governance  corporate  culture  culture  filter  bubble  bubble  Angel  Investor  Party  Seed  Incubator  Private  Market  FOMO 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View
history has proven again, markets are not efficient long-term // psychology is disreputable in econ department. // cognitive dissonance - justifying X action by looking around ... / Efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis for a reason; "it's a half-truth" "sometimes market moves don't reflect market news." // irrational exuberance // book fooled by randomness // 24:00 eugene phama - markets are very efficient, prices reflect all the knowledge out there, just buy the index, don't try to beat the market. buy passive index // don't play poker with your life savings. << robert shiller // 30:00 look at politics science, sociology, psychology - influence markets, people. broader disciplines. economists disregard them. // finance is about manage risk! about being a productive society and progress, and not suffer from boom and bust cycle! + financing activities ie VC gov supported R&D // & gov being a support pillar for all and not picking winners, can't forecast the future!
free  market  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  efficient-market  hypothesis  complexity  human  Wall  Street  crowd  herd  herding  speculative  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  GFC  subprime  book  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  finance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  tax  rate  R&D  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  risk  pension  fund  pension  obligation  401k  public  pension  pension  scheme  pension  marginal  propensity  to  consume  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Greed  oligarchy  self-regulation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  negative  equity  boom  &  bust  secular  stagnation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Two slides that could predict a worse quarter for venture capital is coming
All of 2015’s totals lived and died on mega-deals. Mega-deals were the reason that the total amount invested in the year was one of the highest on record, even though the actual number of deals fell. It’s the reason the fourth quarter’s venture capital total fell so sharply when mega deals declined some 45%. //&! As America faces the techpocalypse, how are things going in Europe? - bit.ly/1ndNFZt //&! If Doordash is struggling to close funding with Sequoia as a lead, how bad are things at your startup? - bit.ly/1njD8v9 - Doordash is a fundable company, just not at the prices originally discussed… and maybe not even at $600 million. //&! Asian venture capital in 2016: This could get ugly… - It has the farthest to fall, and the newest investors - bit.ly/1Pg8vla
growth  round  Venture  Capital  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Silicon  Valley  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  Private  Market  Hype  Cycle  Unicorn  China  credit  bubble  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  QT  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  mobile  homescreen 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Unicorns on fire: Funding falls dramatically in the fourth quarter, along with exits of all kinds
I predicted the second quarter of 2015 had to be peak mega round. Turns out, I was three months off. But now it’s official: The shit is hitting the fan. [...] In the third quarter, venture funding hit dot com funding levels with 2008 deals and $38.7 billion raised. In the fourth quarter, we saw the lowest deal tally since 2013, with just 1743 deals raising some $27.3 billion.
IPO  Unicorn  growth  round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Private  Market  Wall  Street  Fed  monetary  policy  USA  China  business  confidence  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Oil  price  QT 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: The most patient man in Silicon Valley
Too much in Silicon Valley revolves around hyperspeed. Everything in the startup world is an emergency that needs to be solved in an all-nighter last night, if you allow it to be. The genius in Ravikant’s AngelList is its measured, methodical, brick-by-brick pace to build a software platform to replace, save, wreck, or augment – the verb depends on your point of view – a business that everyone insisted for decades was incurably human, boutique and done with deeply-trusted partnerships and eye-to-eye handshake deals. //&! bit.ly/1LS4aVg - The “The old Series A investor who put in $2 million and really cared and had resources is dead.” [...] “A seed fund doesn’t have the resources that a Kleiner Perkins or a Benchmark had,” [ Incubators are only 3 months long ] AngelList syndicate leads help, but they don’t care enough to help [as classic VC's] [...] Entrepreneurs have to stitch it together themselves.”
Naval  Ravikant  AngelList  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  Networking  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  crowd  funding  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  disruption  disrupting  markets  bottom  up  SPV  growth  Party  Round  Angel  List  angel-list  A  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
We’re gonna need a bigger round...
After 15 years of staggering declines, the cost of building a company in San Francisco is rising sharply // prohibitive! diluting too much too early. // China and other BRIC paper millionaers divesting into property speculators, around the world. every city that has seen substantial price appreciation +10-20% over last +5 years // hot money from monetary policy, excess reserves, flushing around the globe //
cost  of  entry  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  standard  of  living  city  living  commuting  London  Start-up  Scene  San  Francisco  burn  rate  runway  advice  lesson  urbanisation  urban  planning  Mountain  View  Palo  Alto  Redwood  growth  round  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  PBOC  2015  credit  bubble  Fed  ECB  BOJ  excess  reserves  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Micro  VC  Limited  Partners  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  valuation  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The investors who will invest ask you why they shouldn’t. – AVC
I could tell within 5 minutes of meeting an investor whether they would invest. Investors who invested were excited about eShares before we met. They either saw the vision and liked it. [...] Excited investors (and the ones who invested) were different. They didn’t let me pitch. Instead, they asked questions to assess risk. They tried to find reasons not to invest. That is the pitch-paradox. The investors who won’tinvest will ask you why they should . The investors who will invest ask you why they shouldn’t. [ check you if you know your business/product/vertical/category inside out and intellectual honesty ] Your job is to make sure you don’t have reasons that they shouldn’t. Fundraising is simple: find investors that get excited about your company. It is a filtering exercise. Too many founders believe they have the wrong pitch instead of realizing they have the wrong audience. // [ from comments: The good VCs know what they want to invest in, and when they see you, they know it ... ]
Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Party  Round  Pitch  deck  pitching  Risk  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Anti-Angel-Gesetz: Auch die CDU schießt gegen Schäubles Pläne | Gründerszene
Die Lage ist schon jetzt nicht rosig. Die Zahl der Unternehmensgründungen geht zurück – die Liquidationen übersteigen bereits seit 2012 die Neugründungen. Zudem sind die Wagniskapital-Investitionen rückläufig. „Die wenigen Risikokapitalgeber jetzt zusätzlich durch drohende Gewinnbesteuerungen von einer möglichen Investition abzuschrecken, ist äußerst kontraproduktiv“, [...] Das Finanzministerium verteidigt sich. Bei der Reform gehe es darum, ein Steuerschlupfloch zu stopfen, das durch Änderungen bei der Dividendenbesteuerung im Jahr 2013 entstanden sei. Außerdem gebe es weiterhin einen Steuernachlass für Investoren in Startups. [ ja und die grossen konzerne? ] [...] Um den Startup-Standort Deutschland attraktiver zu machen, fordert der CDU-Wirtschaftsrat eine Etablierung von Wachstumsfonds für Startups und einen verbesserten Zugang zu Wagniskapital.
Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  tax  code  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  Germany  Mittelstand  entrepreneurship  entrepreneur  entrepreneurial  Failure  society  stigma  SME  SMB  national  interest  creative  destruction  Software  Is  Eating  The  World 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why I'm Moving My Business From San Francisco to St. Louis | Need/Want
// one VC/Angel said, its not that you run out of money, you run out of time to find the magic that makes things for your product work, MVP, Product/Market Fit, that kick up in net promoter score, that multiple in q/q growth, etc etc. // If you’re trying to bootstrap, being based in San Francisco is awful. [ Same with London and New York followed by LA and Seattle. ] Cheap cities are startup friendly. [ don't opt for Edinburgh, if go to Glasgow or Manchester (which got already a small start-up scene plus Media City, Salford) ] We’re an internet company. We don’t need to be tied to a specific location. Hiring remote and having a distributed work force is far cheaper than hiring locally and making everyone come into an office. // &! bit.ly/1EvpTcY
San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Mountain  View  growth  round  Google  Facebook  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  Silicon  Valley  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Seed  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  Taper  Unicorn  Decacorn  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Y Combinator Finally Reveals Its Approach To Growth-Stage Investing | TechCrunch
- signaling risk - do or not do follow-on round participation, but exists with every existing investor (on the bend to invest in next round or not and have pro rata) http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/04/03/understanding-vc-signaling/
ycombinator  growth  round  signaling  risk  Venture  Capital  Seed  A 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
#TOA14 Interview with Julie Meyer (CEO & Founder, Ariadne Capital) - YouTube
(1) why not to go to Palo Alto (2) money will find you if you are good enough/traction. // &! Enterprise Connect Presents: Raising Finance; Top Tips From Industry Experts (Highlights) - youtu.be/9Psgw5oJSMs // &! Lecture 9 How to Raise Money Marc Andreessen, Ron Conway, Parker Conrad - youtu.be/NJAKt1icZYs
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  traction  Focus  Product/Market  Fit  MVP  Minimal  Viable  Product  viral  coefficient  Net  Promoter  Score  network  effect  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  Seed  Round  A  Round  Angel  Investor  London  Scene  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Networking 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Fear Trumps Greed in Silicon Valley as Some Venture Firms Hedge - Bloomberg Business
[... high ops cost associated w SF/Palo Alto ... fancy office (and expensive (rarefied) developers from Google or Facebook) in SF as a sign of success while burning +2m per year at least with no cash flow in sight ... and with all consumer products being free and hoping to finance themselves in the future with advertising ... ] Some VCs are urging their companies to build a rainy day fund to ensure their survival. [...] It’s a constant battle deciding whether to invest in a potentially lucrative deal, said Philadelphia financier Rudy Karsan: “Greed versus fear.” [ Softbank Capital just last week came out publicly with a shift in strategy, to invest now ONLY in proven winners, at slightly premium to get in (and with preferred liquidation preferences in writing), &focus resources on those portfolio companies ... than to compete in a crowded, distorted, muggy, in transparent, very speculative (with lots of ifs and luck and bet on CEO to execute well) A-, B- (and C-Round) market. ]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  cash  flow  cash-is-king  hunt  for  yield  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  growth  round  SPV  war  for  talent  Private  Market  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  bubble  USA  Fed  Taper  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  Angel  Investor  Seed  business  model  advertising  VC  Venture  Capital  Greed  FOMO  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SoftBank  Capital  IPO  NASDAQ  A  Unicorn  Decacorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  exit  strategy  M&A  acquisition  acquihire  acqui-hire  business  cycle  business  plan  business  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  leverage  debtoverhang  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The frustrating, no-win "Goldilocks Zone" of seed deals
Don’t do party rounds. Raise as much as you possibly can so you don’t get crunched. Don’t raise money from just seed funds. Don’t raise money from just big name VCs unless you know you’ll breakthrough, and then absolutely do. And actually you never know that, so nevermind. Oh, and good luck rationalizing all of this advice, first timers. [...] TL;DR version: Large VC firms may do lots of seed deals but each partner will only do one to two Series A deals a year. So basic math tells you it’s a game of survivor. Most of the seed deals will not get a Series A from that firm. The concern is if you don’t quite make the cut, is the signal so bad to other VCs that you are worse off than if you never raised that, say, $200k from a big name VC to begin with? [ not every product consumer or b2b will not be a 500m/1bn dollar company, thus it's not worth it to raise risk capital and just grind it out!? at a sustainable pace, putting back in what you earned. ] &! bit.ly/1HjO13v
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  Venture  Capital  Series  A  seedround  seedfunding  traction  business  model  Silicon  Valley  economies  of  scale  pageviews  Unicorn  valuation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Naval Ravikant to VCs: “You can lie to your LPs, but don’t lie to yourselves” | PandoDaily
“There was so much innovation being thrown around—moveable carry, geographic portfolio, unbundling and more. Many were coming up to me later saying the ideas were flying at them too fast. That’s exactly what’s happening in the market.” Even if you don’t know what those terms mean, the important takeaway is that even the stodgiest VCs are going to have to start acting more like the entrepreneurs they serve because the market is only getting more competitive with the ways to fund becoming far more varied and “hackable.” [and add Corporate Accelerators, Incubators and Venture Funds] [...] restrictions LPs put on funds: things like how much you can invest, what percentage of a fund you can invest in follow on rounds of existing companies, what sector you invest in, whether you can invest personally if the fund invests as a group, etc.
Venture  Capital  angel-list  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  SPV  Private  Equity  IPO  growth  Sand  Hill  Road  Silicon  Valley  500  Start-ups  Rocket  Internet  ycombinator  Accelerator  TechStars  Seed  Camp  Incubator  niche  vertical  Secondary  Market  a16z  s23p  hunt  for  yield  distortion  Signal  vs.  Noise  wantrepreneur  economics  of  abundance  abundance  marginal  cost  MicroVC  Party  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  ecosystem 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Building A Moat In A Bubble: Navigating Today’s Financing Environment | TechCrunch
But building an operating plan that depends on successively larger and higher-priced rounds to materialize in the future could mean disaster. If you find yourself too fixated on that deep moat you’re building around your business, you may just fall right into it yourself. Too often, entrepreneurs let the amount of capital available to them determine how to operate their business rather than the other way around. Every company has a natural cadence of growth that needs to be respected, regardless of the external fundraising environment. There’s a limit to how many high-caliber engineers, salespeople, and marketing executives companies can recruit and train in a given period – trying to hire too much faster could mean the quality bar gets lowered on new employees. For consumer-facing services, attempting to launch into hyper-growth mode through paid marketing — when basic things like user experience and retention still need to be addressed — could prove harmful in the long run. << !!!
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  2015  growth  round  Seed  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  fiduciary  responsibility  Private  Market 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
You Need To Be A Billion Just To Make A Million | TechCrunch
[ especially consumer apps being hit driven business, already, that can go out of fashion as quickly as they came, might be a flash in a pan like Secret & work only on the SV/SF ] Competition in the Valley has started reaching a new peak, with candidates demanding all kinds of accoutrements just to change jobs. But it’s not just recruiting that has become more challenging. Sales, marketing, public relations — essentially every task that a startup has to do is just more difficult today given this cutthroat environment. The only way to respond to the higher threshold has been to raise ever more capital, and earlier as well. We now have the rise of the “instant unicorn” that can raise hundreds of millions of capital in just the first months of a company’s existence. That means companies are already worth billions, before they may have made their first million dollars in revenue or gotten their first million users. That’s the new normal, and founders have to be ready to adapt.
Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  barriers  to  entry  distortion  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  A  Round  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  Private  Market  competitive  advantage  ecosystem  burn  rate  runway  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  unintended  consequences  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Private  Equity  growth  growth  hacking  growth  hacker  structural  imbalance  Impediments  creative  destruction  Unicorn  competitiveness  competition  competitive  Signal  vs.  Noise  allocation  attention  span  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Alley  HR  human  resources 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
New stats show raising Seed money from big VCs increases survival. (The opposite of what everyone in the Valley says) | PandoDaily
(2) Don’t do a “party round” (2) Don’t raise money from a major VC. They will only follow on with the best companies and the signaling risk if they say no can be damning. [...] The companies who raised funds from large VC firms did better than those who raised funds from micro-VCs. [...] The anecdotal stuff is true & the data is true. The answer to how thats possible lies, as everything else in venture world does, with a massive range of quality & low barriers to get in. [...] the # of firms who invest at least $1 million a quarter 4 at least four straight quarters, there are only a paltry 97 firms left in the industry. [...] Raising big institutional funds is hard. Even shitty big VC firms have 2 meet some kind of bar 2 get that money — which is increasingly disappearing in the US. [...] [ hypothesis/thesis of micro-VC is flawed & opportunistic of lower Start-up cost 2 get from idea 2 MVP 2 Product/Market Fit with some traction. higher delta between good & bad co&mVC&angel ]
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  Party  Round  distortion  hunt  for  yield  economic  history  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  technological  history  technological  progress  Micro-VC  VC  Product/Market  Fit  post-traction  Series  A  MVP  meritocracy  meritocratic  Accelerator  ycombinator  Seed  Camp  TechStars  500  Start-ups 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Micro VC Shakeout | TechCrunch
NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (on Silicon Valley) created the conditions for people from SV and around, to create a small fund! Period. mass of micro vcs, seed funds, accelerators and angels is a symptom. // people become fearless, ... warren buffet saying 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful' // VCs and Private Equity, for growth rounds, stab each other in the back to be in into the next Unicorn's growth round << Greedy
Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  barriers  to  entry  complexity  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  asset  allocation  ecosystem  FOMO  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Accelerator  distortion  Unicorn  growth  Private  SPV  Wall  Street  bubble 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
(Founder Stories) Instagram-Backer Steve Anderson: Forget The Billion-Dollar Exits | TechCrunch
“the reality also was on Sand Hill Road everyone talks about the billion-dollar exits, and if you look at the history of the last 15 years, there has not been that many billion dollar exits … it turns out that the average exit over the last 10 years on average has been $100-million, and so I was thinking to myself well if I owned 10% of a $100-million outcome that is real money for me, and my co-founders and anybody else and so why isn’t there anybody whose capital was aligned and incented for that outcome?” // A Round is post-traction round. Decision has to be made whether to invest (A Round), dilute yourself, drive burn rate up acquiring more customers than normal rate vs cash flow positive Start-up that grows organically with rising revenues and staying cash flow positive. Fork in the road can be a credit line from VC. // VC's have to bet & have 2 invest 2 return the fund & more. Sometimes its not in the interest of the founder & company economics that got only ~<250m exit horizon.
Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  A  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  2011  Silicon  Valley 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PREMONEY 2014] Venture-nomics: The Explosion Of Micro-Funds & The LP Fatigue Epidemic - YouTube
(1) fundy changes, how little it costs to get sw product/company off the ground. [...] (X) Private Market keeps lots of value creation to itself, much longer time to IPO & Wall Street' short-term demands. // // see also other [PREMONEY 2014] videos on this channel
Venture  Capital  2014  2015  Open  Source  cloudcomputing  Cloudstorage  SPV  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  Crowd  Funding  Private  Market  Wall  Street 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Forward Partners - Your unfair advantage
Nic Brisbourne - Managing Partner at Forward Partners | Silicon Real LIVE - youtu.be/7oxJ-OO1um8 // ex-DFJ (Series A&B) // is on website, it says, focused on e-commerce, but does/did also consumer and some enterprise/dev tools. // they also have drop-in office hours - theequitykicker.com/2014/10/24/tips-attending-office-hours/ // 9:05 - Finding Tech Co-Founder is difficult, business founders have to sell themselves really hard. Same in SV, and UK. // 24:15 don't build lonely MVP, build one that resonates, slow down to speed up during feedback time and crystallising MVP to specific customer+own vision (balance) to the point where it fly's off the shelve // optimism with critical thinking (balance.) // Board to set focus and resolve problems. Staying on the same page (ben horrowitz book) // London Start-up Scene Ecosystem, its a marathon. TC reporting is not conducive to portray a realistic picture of Start-up struggle. // &! Philippe Botteri - Accel Partners - youtu.be/YIbGP-2LYLk
Venture  Capital  UK  London  Start-up  Scene  Europe  Scene  Seed  Round  seedround  seedfunding  wisdom-of-the-crowd  MVP  Accel  Partners  Forward  Partners 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] Upfront Ventures, Mark Suster, "Venture Outlook 2015 - Goldrush or Fool's Gold" - YouTube
(1) Change from Sales Funnel to Funnel of Intent on Mobile and Social Media. Lower Marketing/Early user acquisition cost at scale. And tap to credit cards to with one click through third party Platforms. And also Open Source Software Stacks and buying 'by time' the hardware stack on Google, AWS or Azure is paradigm shift. Results also in noise one has to break through first - raising the bar (by user choice) for everyone. (2) min10 - Value Creation held inside Private Market through growth & late-stage investing instead of IPO with single-class share structure with wobbily business numbers 'help you god that you aren't out 24m later' because of impatient Wall Street. (3) min14 Series D valuations show Private Market highest bidder wins phenomenon. But Valuations are up across the board. And with more Seed/Angel Investors, Seed Valuations are also bid up higher compared to ABC. // &! min29 youtu.be/25TxrhsXFvs - 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned"
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  A  Round  growth  Venture  Capital  Sales  Funnel  Funnel  of  Intent  mobile  first  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  Social  Media  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  productive  investment  Private  Market  Platform  TOS  2000  dot.com  bubble  2008  IPO  Wall  Street  single-class  share  structure  SPV  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  seedround  seedfunding  angelinvestor  angel-list  Angel  Investor  angelinvestors  incomplete  information  complexity  unintended  consequences  Dave  McClure  Mark  Suster  UpFront  Ventures  500  Start-ups  paradigm  shift 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned" - YouTube
Angel Investors/Seed and maybe even A Round is about jumping on and doubling down on companies that do well, others don't know about. It's information arbitrage. Wall Street Services Cottage Industry aka Economic Forecaster and Stock Pickers make their money with supposed information arbitrage. But it's just a cottage industry. ... Where Seed/Angel Investors do hustle, network, keep things private, sharing of non-public information with their best buddy and co-investor. // min 34 talks about Silicon Valley Ecosystem. (1) Optimism and Believe. German culture about fear of failure does not support it well in public. (2) supporting structures (3) capital at every stage.
500  Start-ups  Dave  McClure  Seed  Round  Venture  Capital  information  arbitrage  Private  Market  incomplete  information  Silicon  Valley  Angel  Investor  angel-list  Hustle  Networking  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  culture  society  Germany  failure  Leistungsdruck  ecosystem  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Mike Judge Explains Silicon Valley’s Success and Offers Hints About Season 2 - YouTube
min 15 - ideas on the fringe (looking crazy at the start and get ridiculed), and succeed, happen in the Valley. Everyone else can do the ideas that are not on the fringe. But every ideas VCs get pitched are fringe in general. SV = be on the fringe, work at the fringe, live on the fringe. When they work, they tend to work really really well. || Fear of Bubble & Hype Cycle >> Reduce risk, don't get sloppy. || end - "Start-up life is struggle." but public perception is like the lego movie everyone is singing 'everything is awesome' and dancing ...
Start-Up  lesson  Silicon  Valley  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  Seed  Round  A  Round  creative  destruction 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Potential Upside To A Technology Bubble | TechCrunch
just look at the graph, seed ang frowth round are impacted only. while a is still up a sizable 80% y/y. makes sense. // // From the article ""I am currently reading Antifragile. The premise of the book is looking at potential gains in times of disorder [R.I.P. Good Times Slide Show (2008) - http://tcrn.ch/ZBZw7u], and it’s a terrific read for those involved in startups and investing. Navigating fundamental shifts in technology and outer market forces are key characteristics of great founders. I look at the funding landscape and see a terrific environment for learning. Bubble or not there are certain things that remain true. Great founders create amazing companies and great founders will always find a way to succeed."" // 1bn valuation and the attribution of Unicorn and 'product CEO' for life of _your_ company, became a status symbol. // first lava stream of money bid-up asia and brick, now flown/flowing out and bidding up the Private Market where highest bidder wins.
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  growth  hunt  for  yield  A  Round  GFC  recession  Unicorn  symptom  burn  rate  superficial  status  anxiety  status  symbol  Private  Equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  secular  stagnation  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  allocation  incomplete  information  complexity  herding  bubbles  demographic  bubble  asset  bubble  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
What you label your funding round matters a lot less than how much you raise and what you accomplish | PandoDaily
It’s not inherently wrong to skip a Seed round altogether, or to raise a Seed so large that your next round effectively becomes a B round. But where the issue arises is in choosing such a path and not knowing you’re on it, and thus failing to deliver accordingly. Putting aside the occasional exceptions of outlier companies, proven repeat founders, and the like, there’s a predictable cadence to startup funding and the expectations that VCs set at each stage along the way. If you want to play the game, you have to know the rules.
Venture  Capital  Seed  Round  Series  A  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  traction  growth 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Why Jeff Clavier insists there’s no Series A Crunch | PandoDaily
It wasn’t that VCs were going to do fewer Series A deals than they have in the past. It was because there was a limit to how many more Series A deals the industry could do in a given year, since most VCs only do one to two deals per year. The explosion of incubators, angels, and seed funds meant there would be thousands more companies [ <100's with serious traction, seriously ] vying for those one or two yeses per partner per year. [...] [...] Clavier pushes his companies to raise ginormous seed rounds– way more than they think they want. He’ll routinely talk an entrepreneur who just wants to raise $750k into more than doubling that. Cynics could say this pushes an entrepreneur to give away more ownership at a higher early price and have less control, but the logic is that seeds are the only place where there’s a glut of money and you don’t have to prove a lot to get it. Load up while you can. That gives the company enough room that it can hit momentum .... & bit.ly/1ask6Np
Silicon  Valley  Venture  Capital  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Seed  Round  traction  execution  A  Round 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Flaxseeds & Breast Cancer Prevention - YouTube
Use of antibiotics reduces good bacteria in human intestine that converts plant lignin (Lignan (sigular, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignan) into human active lignin which fights the proliferation of cancer. Antibiotics misuse and abuse is having unintended consequences (side effects) on peoples life (ie long-term less quality of life and shorter life span).
antibiotics  pharmaceutical  industry  pharma  lignin  post-antibiotic  era  urinary  tract  infection  western  lifestyle  unintended  consequences  lignan  vegan  Flaxseed  breast  cancer  Sesame  Seed  UTI  western  diet  cancer 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Which VC firm should I pitch? cdixon.org – chris dixon's blog
A friend asked me the other day “Which VC firms should I pitch?” and I started to respond to him, but then realized that most of my knowledge of VC firms is already available online in the Which VC firm should I pitch? Hunch decision topic. That is the idea behind Hunch: to crowdsource the creation of decision trees, so that a group of knowledgeable people can get together and create a “virtual expert” that can be accessed by anyone.
hunch  VC  pitch  pitching  seed  angelinvestor 
november 2009 by asterisk2a

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