asterisk2a + qt   23

Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King: new financial crisis is 'certain' without reform of banks | Business | The Guardian
The former Bank of England governor says in his new book that imbalances in the global economy makes a crash inevitable [...] GFC was the fault of the financial system, not individual greedy bankers, in his new book, The End Of Alchemy: Money, Banking And The Future Of The Global Economy [...] “Without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain, and the failure ... to tackle the disequilibrium in the world economy makes it likely that it will come sooner rather than later,” Lord King wrote. [...] global central banks were caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” - unable to raise interest rates for fear of stifling the economic recovery, the newspaper reported. [... blame] broken financial system. [...] failure of a system, and the ideas that underpinned it, [...] “Only a fundamental rethink of how we, as a society, organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition //&! dailym.ai/21tPG5y
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  investment  banking  self-regulation  retail  banking  Greed  financial  product  regulation  regulators  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Mark  Carney  macroprudential  policy  property  bubble  austerity  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  economic  history  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  free  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  faultlines  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  China  Brazil  credit  bubble  2016  reflate  reflation  junk  bond  revolving  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  UK  IMF  OECD  credit  card  debt  car  loan  BOE  MervynKing  ECB  Fed  Europe  deflationary  deflation  Gini  coefficient  inequality  MarioDraghi  Taper  QT  bonuses  bonus  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Tasting menu: Audio highlights from the February 20th 2016 edition by The Economist
"liberal centrist politicians are not up to the job" always claiming the confidence fairy will show up if they stop what they are doing! "faith in monetary policy is wavering" ... emerging market debt bubble (through hunt for yield, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, credit bubble originating from China) is unwinding and threatening global system stability.
aggregate  demand  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Taper  QT  Fed  distortion  hot-money  austerity  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  western  world  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  Mark  Carney  BOE  property  bubble  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  fairness  recovery  unintended  consequences 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Two slides that could predict a worse quarter for venture capital is coming
All of 2015’s totals lived and died on mega-deals. Mega-deals were the reason that the total amount invested in the year was one of the highest on record, even though the actual number of deals fell. It’s the reason the fourth quarter’s venture capital total fell so sharply when mega deals declined some 45%. //&! As America faces the techpocalypse, how are things going in Europe? - bit.ly/1ndNFZt //&! If Doordash is struggling to close funding with Sequoia as a lead, how bad are things at your startup? - bit.ly/1njD8v9 - Doordash is a fundable company, just not at the prices originally discussed… and maybe not even at $600 million. //&! Asian venture capital in 2016: This could get ugly… - It has the farthest to fall, and the newest investors - bit.ly/1Pg8vla
growth  round  Venture  Capital  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Silicon  Valley  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  Private  Market  Hype  Cycle  Unicorn  China  credit  bubble  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  QT  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  mobile  homescreen 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains | Zero Hedge
According to Citigroup's Matt King, it is now officially too late to save junk debt, which has entered the final stage of the credit cycle, the one where defaults for high yield bonds rise with every passing month. [...] we estimate that nearly $1tn of speculative-grade credits are at risk of default over the next downturn, as the stock of low-quality credit has soared. [...] These developments are a negative headwind for investment-grade corporates in 2016.
creditrating  creditrisk  NPL  corporate  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  speculative  bubbles  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  leverage  junk  bond  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  monetary  policy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  economic  history  Taper  QT  M&A 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Unicorns on fire: Funding falls dramatically in the fourth quarter, along with exits of all kinds
I predicted the second quarter of 2015 had to be peak mega round. Turns out, I was three months off. But now it’s official: The shit is hitting the fan. [...] In the third quarter, venture funding hit dot com funding levels with 2008 deals and $38.7 billion raised. In the fourth quarter, we saw the lowest deal tally since 2013, with just 1743 deals raising some $27.3 billion.
IPO  Unicorn  growth  round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Private  Market  Wall  Street  Fed  monetary  policy  USA  China  business  confidence  Silicon  Valley  Hype  Cycle  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Oil  price  QT 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börsenabsturz in China: Der Kontrollverlust - Kommentar - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Börsen-Crash in China ist Symptom eines fundamentalen Wandels: Um den Wohlstand zu erhalten, muss die Regierung immer mehr Kontrolle abgeben. Die Allmacht der kommunistischen Partei gerät ins Wanken.
China  economic  history  SRD  Yuan  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  corruption  bribery  regulation  regulators  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  inequality  IMF  AIIB  World  Bank  Hegemony  PBOC  Gini  coefficient  social  safety  net  Services  Public  Services  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  pension  scheme  pension  pension  fund  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  shadow  banking  NPL  2015  2016  shadow  economy  demographic  bubble 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
recovery  business  cycle  financial  cycle  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  Student  Loan  Bubble  car  credit  card  debt  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  austerity  fiscal  policy  economic  history  monetary  policy  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  western  world  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  UK  USA  Schuldenbremse  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Positioning  mainstreet.org  Germany  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  crony  capitalism  reflate  reflation  Career  Politicians  constituency  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Niedriglohnsektor  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  income  inequality  social  mobility  social  contract  political  theory  income  mobility  Standard  American  Diet  equity  credit  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BRIC  BOE  Fed  Fed  mandate  BOJ  PBOC  distortion  2015  ECB  Super  debt  servitude  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  Taper  QT  irrational  exuberance  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  speculative  bubbles  commodity  prices  Oil  price  inflation  expe 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE "As Soon As This Week" | Zero Hedge
The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go." Deutsche was kind enough to provide a silver lining to this otherwise dreary forecast: "What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates." [... or the shadowy actor Belgium - bit.ly/1LWtQQ9 &! bit.ly/1Ib2oNo - might have been a smoke mirror of the PBOC using "Euroclear", but the rabbit is out of the hat now! ] //&! bloom.bg/1JBiywV - Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall. The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
QT  Quantitative  Tightening  Taper  QE  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  2015  China  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  reserve  currency  petrodollar  PBOC  centralbanks  reserves  FX  reserves  Treasury  Market  treasuries  bond  bubble  reflate  reflation  distortion  economic  history  global  trade  global  growth  global  economy  OPEC  Russia 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - 2016 Economic Collapse - YouTube
17:00 - Russia dumping Treasuries. China dumping Treasuries. Belgium (who?) buying them up!? zerohedge reported on that. Why Belgium? Belgium is a front - smoke mirror, smoking gun! // 19:00 petrodollar. Iran. // Financial War Fare (& Cyber War Fare.) // Global Stealth Gold Run as insurance scheme as end of dollar as reserve currency scenario (hedge). Zerohedge has shown that worlds central banks have pulled continuously their gold from NY Fed // 28:00 Fed monetary policy puts dollar status in peril according to IMF. Central banks started long ago to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce dollars for other holdings. //// &! See end of the petrodollar and what it means (bad for all USD denominated assets) - bit.ly/1hBuuWo AND See QT 2015/2016 - China and everyone else selling Treasuries and USD FX reserves because they have to = quantitative tightening. treasury prices up (higher yield). --- bit.ly/1IGh4O3
treasuries  Treasury  Market  USA  Fed  bond  bubble  2015  China  Russia  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  USD  globalization  globalisation  petrodollar  OPEC  QT  Quantitative  Tightening  emerging  book  Dollar  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a

related tags

1%  Abenomics  Abstieg  abundance  account  Africa  ageing  aggregate  agreement  AIIB  allocation  America  American  and  Angel  Angela  Arabia  Asia  asset  austerity  avoidance  badbank  bailout  balance  bank  banking  banks  Ben  benbernanke  Bernanke  BIS  Blanchflower  BOE  BOJ  bond  bonus  bonuses  book  borderless  Brazil  bribery  BRIC  British  bubble  bubbles  budget  budget2015  business  Buy  Buy-to-Let  buyback  call  Cameron  Canada  capital  capitalism  car  card  Career  Carney  centralbank  centralbanks  CETA  Chartered  China  City  class  code  coefficient  commodity  competition  competitive  competitiveness  complexity  confidence  consequences  Conservative  constituency  consumer  contract  Contractor  corporate  corporations  correction  corruption  cost  creation  credit  creditcrunch  creditrating  creditrisk  crisis  crony  crunch  currency  currency-war  current  cycle  Danny  David  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  decade  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demand  demographic  deregulation  derivatives  Deutsche  devaluation  Developing  Diet  differentiate  differentiation  digital  discretionary  disposable  distortion  distribution  distrust  dogma  Dollar  door  downward  Eating  ECB  economic  economics  economy  education  emerging  energy  equity  Establishment  Europe  European  evasion  excess  expectation  exposure  exuberance  fairness  fault  faultlines  Fed  Ferguson  financial  fiscal  flat  FOMO  for  fracking  fractional  free  Frontier  frothy  fund  FX  gap  gas  GDP  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  George  Germany  GFC  Gini  global  globalisation  globalization  glut  Greed  growth  headwinds  Hegemony  Help  history  homescreen  hot-money  Hour  household  HSBC  hubris  hunt  Hype  ideology  imbalance  imbalances  IMF  Impediments  income  India  industrial  industry  inequality  inflation  infrastructure  insurance  interest  investment  Investor  IPO  Iran  irrational  Is  Janet  Japan  job  Jobs  JohnMaynardKeynes  Joseph  junk  keynes  Keynesianism  Koo  Krugman  labour  Latin  Leiharbeit  leverage  liberal  lines  liquidation  liquidity  literacy  loan  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  London  lost  low  M&A  M3  macroeconomic  macroprudential  mainstreet.org  mandate  margin  marginal  MarioDraghi  Mark  market  Markets  maximisation  mechanism  Merkel  MervynKing  microeconomic  middle  miltonfriedman  mobile  mobility  monetary  monetisation  monetization  money  moneysupply  mortgage  Mutual  NAFTA  neoliberal  neoliberalism  net  New  Niall  Niedriglohnsektor  NIRP  nominal  Normal  NPL  OECD  of  Oil  OPEC  Osborne  output  overcapacity  Oversight  Pact  panic  Party  Paul  payments  PBOC  pension  petrodollar  Petroleum  PIGS  policy  political  Politicians  poor  population  Positioning  Pound  Precariat  precarious  preferences  price  prices  private  Privileged  product  productive  productivity  profit  property  public  QE  QT  Quantitative  R&D  Raghuram  Rajan  rate  ratings  recession  recovery  refinancing  reflate  reflation  reform  refugee  regulation  regulators  Reich  repression  Research  reserve  reserves  retail  revolving  Rich  Richard  Richardkoo  Right  RMB  Robert  round  Russia  safety  Saudi  Save  savings  scheme  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  SDR  Sector  secular  security  Seed  self-employment  self-regulation  Service  Services  servitude  shadow  shale  share  shareholder  sheet  Shiller  short-term  Silicon  social  Software  South  sovereign  Sozialer  speculation  speculative  spending  SPV  squeeze  squeezed  SRD  stagnation  Standard  STEM  Sterling  Stiglitz  stimulus  Street  structural  student  subprime  subsidies  subsidizing  Super  supply  system  Taper  targeting  tarsand  tax  termsheet  The  theory  thinking  Tightening  TISA  to  Toff  Tories  TPP  trade  trading  transmission  trap  treasuries  Treasury  trickle-down  trust  TTIP  Turkey  UAE  UK  uncertainty  unconventional  underemployed  underinvestment  underwater  Unicorn  unintended  Union  unknown  unkown  USA  USD  Valley  value  VAR  velocity  Venture  view  wage  Wall  war  welfare  western  Westminster  Wolfgang  work  working  world  Yellen  Yen  yield  Yuan  Zeitarbeit  Zero  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: