asterisk2a + piigs   387

The new European Union | Credit Writedowns
[ EU banking system was too big to bail in case Greece and else would default even in parts on some of its debt and or make no or delay repayment with interest in full ] In conclusion, the conditions asked of Greece are not likely to be met, because they cannot be met. Greece will be blamed for not living up to its commitments, as it has been this time around. Yet, somehow, the notion of asking for the impossible from a country that has no choice but to sign is fundamentally perverse. [...] The mistake was to break the no-bailout clause that was designed to make sure the Eurozone would not find itself in this position. For selfish reasons (i.e. preventing a bank crisis in Europe and the US), Greece was convinced to accept the first bailout in 2010.
Greece  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  investment  banking  retail  banking  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  European  Union  Positioning  ECB  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  crony  capitalism  corporate  scandal  austerity  accounting  scandal  bailout  bail-in  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  deposit  haircut  deposit  levy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Basel3  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  Privatisation  ideology  dogma  PIIGSFB  PIGS  PIIGS  France  Germany  Bundesbank  trichet  Jens  Weidmann  Angela  Merkel  Peer  Steinbrück  corruption  blackmail  josefackermann  ackermann  Deutsche  subsidies  subsidizing  Mark  Blyth  social  contract  social  tension  social  cohesion  constituency  Nationalizing  badbank  badbanks  restructuring  monetary 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Krise ǀ Weimar reloaded — der Freitag
Das Land befindet sich schon mitten in der Depression und schuld daran sind hohe Lohnkosten und üppige Sozialpolitik. Helfen können dagegen nur Lohn-, Preis- und Budgetkürzungen. Was sich liest wie eine Mainstream-Diagnose des heutigen Europas, ist tatsächlich der Inhalt eines Artikels aus dem März 1929. Er erschien im Deutschen Volkswirt, einem damaligen Fachblatt der liberalen Ökonomie. Der Autor war kein Geringerer als Joseph Schumpeter. Was er vorschlug, ist später als die berüchtigte Deflationspolitik des bis Mai 1932 amtierenden Reichskanzlers Heinrich Brüning bekannt geworden. [ can solve debt overhang w austerity, >> is deflationary, stagnant balance sheet or shrinking, thus increases debt 2 gdp/asset ratio ] [...] den „Ruin Mitteleuropas“ zu verantworten.
austerity  economic  history  Weimar  Treaty  of  Versailles  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Greece  Richard  Koo  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GroKo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  balance  sheet  recession  neoliberalism  neoliberal  sovereign  crisis  Europe  George  Osborne  UK  IMF  Weimarer  Republik  Troika  Umschuldung  jubilee  restructuring  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  European  Union  Eurogroup  technocrat  John  Maynard  Keynes  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff  Thomas  Piketty  Yanis  Varoufakis  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Weimar  Republic  European 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Pay? Austerity vs. Bailouts | Greece, Europe and The Euro! - YouTube
have to be held accountable >> bankers! but have not, just transfered private debt/losses onto public balance sheet which no has to paid down by the weakest of society and collectively by less public investment for the future (output gap/lower productivity) ie into infrastructure and education // stealing from the young // policy making by comfort and trinkets - George Osborne // moral hazard - the options they choose - paulson geithner summers and co made the tbtf and jail even worse! instead should have chosen partial privatization // sold off our future for keeping the gangsters "private" - get out of jail free card for what reason? because it would be not American? American means to be WALL STREET crony capitalistic greed with tax evasion and lobbying to the tunes of millions - your judge - that judges on you whether you get a free out of jail card?! // who will suffer in the end? the public and the weakest of society and unborn! period. long-term. // &! youtu.be/EmHYeGI0b_U
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us | Yanis Varoufakis | Comment is free | The Guardian
Debt restructuring has always been our aim in negotiations – but for some eurozone leaders Grexit is the goal [...] To frame the cynical transfer of irretrievable private losses on to the shoulders of taxpayers as an exercise in “tough love”, record austerity was imposed on Greece, whose national income, in turn – from which new and old debts had to be repaid – diminished by more than a quarter. It takes the mathematical expertise of a smart eight-year-old to know that this process could not end well. [...] In my first week as minister for finance I was visited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup (the eurozone finance ministers), who put a stark choice to me: accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up. [...] Wolfgang Schäuble, decided that Grexit’s costs were a worthwhile “investment” as a way of disciplining France et al,
Yanis  Varoufakis  debt  restructuring  debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sustainable  sustainability  Great  Depression  Greece  Grexit  lost  decade  lost  generation  PIGS  Troika  Germany  France  IMF  Angela  Merkel  ChristineLagarde  European  History  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  MarioDraghi  Leadership  European  Union  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvent  insolvency  austerity  economic  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  dogma  ideology  propaganda  Lügenpresse  bailout  zombie  banks  populism  manufactured  consent  media  conglomerate  corporate  state  Jeroen  Dijsselbloem  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Eurogroup  EFSF  ELA  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  referendum  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  FrancoisHollande  academia  academic  academics  carmenreinhart  kennethlewis  Alexis  Tsipras  Syriza  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  Podemos  Indignants  Indignados  occupywallstreet  fairness  GFC  recovery  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  economic-thought  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economists  economic  damage  short-term  thinking  short-term  view 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek debt crisis: What next for the European Union dream? - BBC News
In a European Union that's currently dominated by eye-popping debt figures, last-minute debt talks and sharp-tongued insults, some people are wondering what happened to the idealism behind the European project: the "European idea"? // &! Greece debt crisis: Eurozone decision down to politics - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-33429622 // agglomeration of the symptoms and outcomes of our time have pushed weak career politicans in a corner where they can't admit a big academic/intellectual/economic mistake and at least re-orientate. thus keeping the destructive path they are on. because their national (political) interest (and that of their constituency) is them more important (their status quo career) than the greater good and stable integrated (& solidarity) future of Europe is so needs in an even more unstable and uncertain and competitive future. It all started when they said it was "Alternativlos" to bailout banks and transfer the debt (risk) on public balance sheet.
Grexit  PIGS  European  History  European  Union  Angela  Merkel  Jean-Claude  Juncker  ECB  MarioDraghi  Germany  France  FrancoisHollande  Leadership  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Wolfgang  Schäuble  compromise  political  error  political  folly  political  economy  political  theory  Syriza  Alexis  Tsipras  Yanis  Varoufakis  austerity  dogma  ideology  IMF  ChristineLagarde  humility  humble  character  economic  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Gesellschaft  society  symptom  bailout  PIIGS  zombie  banks  PIIGSFB  GFC  recovery  2015  UK  neoliberal  neoliberalism  crony  capitalism  TBTF  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  Wall  Street  liberal  economic  reform  referendum  democracy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Merkel zwischen Schuldenkonferenz und Grexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[ Groesste feigheit und intelectual cynicism of EU history. "Alternativlos." BIS warned, time was wasted. ] Mit ideologischer Verbohrtheit beharren die Deutschen darauf, dass Griechenland all seine Kredite zurückzahlen muss - was so oder so nicht geschehen wird. Höchste Zeit also für eine Schuldenkonferenz! // Case of history - Treaty of Versailles = Nationalism (Nazi) and Rechtsruck! Happened in Greece and Co. and in Germany. // People learned and after WW2 and came together to give Europe a chance! >> London Debt Agreement (German: Londoner Schuldenabkommen) "An important term of the agreement was that repayments were only due while West Germany ran a trade surplus, and that repayments were limited to 3% of export earnings. This gave Germany’s creditors a powerful incentive to import German goods, assisting reconstruction." - bit.ly/1exF0vY bit.ly/1ep1dvW - also periphery countries like France, Italy, Spain and Portugal were encouraged by Allies not to demand war reparations.
Greece  Grexit  PIIGS  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  ideology  propaganda  WW1  WW2  Treaty  of  Versailles  debt  jubilee  European  History  London  Agreement  Londoner  Schuldenabkommen  common  good  common  sense  Gesellschaft  dogma  populism  economic  society  austerity  trickle-down  economics  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  solidarity  Angela  Merkel  IMF  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  World  Bank  Jean-Claude  Juncker  ChristineLagarde  academia  academics  sustainable  sustainability  Super  Cycle  debt  restructuring  haircut  debt  bubble  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  crony  capitalism  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Leadership  Legacy  vision  European  Union  fiscal  transferunion  Eurobond  lost  decade  lost  generation  GroKo  Sigmar  Gabriel  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  democracy  Lügenpresse  political  theory  political  error  political  economy  political  folly  policy  folly  policy  error  ECB  MarioDraghi  Makers  Great  Depression  GFC  recovery  output  gap  bailout  zombie  banks  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  BIS 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek referendum no vote signals huge challenge to eurozone leaders | Business | The Guardian
It is not clear which view will prevail. The EU mainstream hoped for a yes vote, not only because it would have represented democratic assent to the euro and acceptance of austerity, but also because the Tsipras government would have come under strong pressure to stand down. Negotiations between the two sides have gone nowhere for five months and have become particularly rancorous in the past month as bailout and debt repayment deadlines came and went, // Greece and its people are not too big to fail and but banks it owed money to in Europe (mainly Germany and France) were too big to fail - and to bail out people an inconvenience and nuisance.
mainstream  media  stakeholder  media  conglomerate  propaganda  manufactured  consent  dogma  ideology  austerity  economic  history  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Lügenpresse  Grexit  zombie  banks  bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  GFC  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  democracy  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Gregor Gysi, DIE LINKE: »Sie wollen die linke Regierung in Griechenland beseitigen« - YouTube
[ "Alternativlos" & 'Jeder fuer sich selbst.' ] Die Rettungspakete galten nie den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern, sondern immer den Banken. Auch bei uns wurden 480 Milliarden Euro binnen einer Woche für die Rettung der Banken beschlossen. Wenn man mal 1 Million Euro für einen kulturellen oder sozialen Zweck braucht, dann bekommt man ein Nein, aber bei den Banken gibt es immer nur ein Ja. [...] Ich habe Ihnen zugehört, Frau Bundeskanzlerin. Ihre Rede kann ich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die griechische Regierung hat alles falsch gemacht, und Sie, Herr Schäuble und die europäischen Institutionen, also der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Europäische Kommission und die Europäische Zentralbank, haben alles richtig gemacht. // via bit.ly/1R6V2yA
GroKo  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  bailout  Grexit  PIGS  PIIGS  EFSF  EFSM  ESM  IMF  Germany  Leadership  austerity  ideology  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Jean-Claude  Juncker  zombie  banks  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  No  Representation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  European  History  Rechtsruck  propaganda  manufactured  consent  Sigmar  Gabriel  solidarity  Gesellschaft  Lügenpresse  investigative  journalism  journalismus  journalism  Syriza  political  economy  political  theory  France  economic  election  campaign  promises  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  Podemos  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  hartz-iv  welfare  state  Public  Services  Social  Services  fairness  Super  Rich  1%  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  sovereignty  Troika  corporate  state  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  poverty  Gini  coefficient  mobility  UK  ChristineLagarde  political  science  political  error  political  folly  PR  relations  spin  doctor  banking  transferunion  currency  monetary  Eurobond  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  compromise  Politics 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney wastes no time in stamping his authority - Telegraph
Osborne fiscal plan of austerity till 2015/16 Rates don't go up beyond 2015 If market rates go up and make it more expensive for gov to borrow during tough times - will do QE - artificially lower the price again. >>> "Carney’s “not warranted” comment was tantamount to saying he expects rates to remain at 0.5pc until at least 2015. The vogue for “communication” is catching. In Australia, the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, demonstrated how not to do it, after a “joke” backfired earlier this week, crashing the currency until his deputy calmed things down. [...] At the European Central Bank, president Mario Draghi was more successful. In a break with protocol, he said rates would be at current or lower levels “for an extended period of time”, delighting stock markets on the continent as they interpreted it to mean 2016 at the earliest."
currency  debasement  unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  output-gap  foreignexchange  BOE  ECB  benbernanke  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  communication  PIGS  UK  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  forward  guidance  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  participation  rate  Taper  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  RBA  GeorgeOsborne  debt  monetization  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What's Next For Portugal? | Zero Hedge
The Portuguese economy cannot afford further delays Under the optimistic scenario forecast by the EU/IMF/ECB Troika, Portuguese debt is still expected to peak at 124% of GDP in 2014. Any delays will likely see this rise quickly, especially with growth already underperforming. Portuguese ten year borrowing costs have already shot up a staggering 1.5% since Gaspar’s resignation, reaching close to 8%. This highlights the fragility of the economic situation. Only a month ago, there was widespread talk of Portugal returning to the markets ahead of schedule – now it is difficult to see how it will exit its bailout programme in spring 2014 without any further assistance (the ECB’s bond buying programme, the OMT, still remains the most likely candidate).
Portugal  debtoverhang  OMT  2013  PIGS  Europe  European  Commission  sovereign  debt  crisis  bail-in  austerity  Troika  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  bailout 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Admits Mistakes on Greece Bailout - WSJ.com
"The International Monetary Fund is set to admit to major missteps over the past three years in its handling of the bailout of Greece, the first spark in a debt crisis that spread across Europe." > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-05/imf-admits-it-idiot-and-liar "" The greater beneficiary of the 2010 bailout wasn't so much Greece as the wider euro-zone, the document suggested. It described the rescue as a "holding operation" that "gave the euro area time to build a firewall to protect other vulnerable members and averted potentially severe effects on the global economy." "" >> + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/oecd-und-eu-kommission-gegen-euro-sparpolitik-und-fuer-mehr-inflation-a-903575.html
monetary  policy  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  Europe  accountability  accounting  European  Commission  GoldmanSachs  Euro  Troika  Brussels  ECB  political  folly  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  ChristineLagarde  trust  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  confidence  political  error  sovereign  crisis  trustagent  austerity  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  greatdepression  balance  sheet  recession  IMF  bailout 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfe für Finanzkonzerne: Deutschland bremst Bankenunion aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gerade wegen der Probleme im Bankensektor würden die geldpolitischen Impulse nicht mehr wirken. "Die EZB wird auf Dauer nicht erfolgreich sein können, wenn wir den Bankensektor nicht grundlegend reformieren",
ESM  angelamerkel  monetary  policy  PIIGSFB  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NPL  PIGS  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  political  error  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  deleveraging  Germany  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: EU-Pläne zum Sparkurs helfen nicht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der EU-Plan zur Aufweichung des Sparkurses ist weder politisch, rechtlich noch moralisch akzeptabel - er löst nicht einmal das Problem der Krise. Die neuen Taschenspielertricks aus Brüssel sind der Höhepunkt der Verlogenheit. [...] Die Angst geht um in Brüssel. Nach zwei Jahren harter internationaler Kritik gegen den wirtschaftspolitischen Sparkurs knickt die EU-Kommission jetzt ein. Sie will von der Austerität abweichen und auf Wachstum setzen.
unemployment  PIIGSFB  GFC  Europe  accounting  zombie  banks  Troika  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  budget  deficit  sovereign  crisis  youth  unemployment  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Germany  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Krisenländer: Barroso fordert eine Lockerung der Sparpolitik - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der britische Ökonom Simon Wren-Lewis hat vor einiger Zeit eine sehr hilfreiche Analyse veröffentlicht. Er vergleicht dabei die sogenannten strukturellen Primärüberschüsse. Das Wort "strukturell" meint hier, dass man den Konjunkturzyklus berücksichtigt. Das Wort "primär" bedeutet, dass man die Haushaltsbilanz vor der Zahlung von Zinsen betrachtet. Das tut man, weil man damit den Teil der Haushaltspolitik isoliert, auf den die Politik Einfluss hat. Der Euro-Raum insgesamt hat einen strukturellen Primärüberschuss von 2,2 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung, was angesichts der Rezession außerordentlich viel ist. Wren-Lewis errechnete dann, wie hoch eine optimale strukturelle Primärbilanz für den langfristigen Schuldenabbau momentan wäre. Das Ergebnis: ein Überschuss von nur 0,3 Prozent.
academics  Barroso  Europe  European  Commission  academia  Kenneth  Rogoff  Troika  carmenreinhart  political  folly  macroeconomics  policy  folly  Simon  Wren-Lewis  macroeconomic  policy  political  theory  economic  history  fiscal  policy  PIGS  UK  KennethRogoff  Schuldenbremse  error  austerity  Carmen  Reinhart  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  Germany  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Umfrage im Mittelstand: Deutsche Unternehmer schreiben Euro-Zone ab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Unternehmer als Wachstumskritiker Deutschlands Mittelständler zeigen sich in der Umfrage sogar als Wachstumskritiker. 88 Prozent unterschrieben die Aussage, die deutsche Volkswirtschaft müsse sich auf Grenzen des Wachstums einstellen. Nach Ansicht der Commerzbank-Analystin Ulrike Rondorf spiegelt sich darin auch die derzeitige Kapitalismusdebatte. "Ich denke, dass diese Einschätzung der Unternehmer der breiten Öffentlichkeit entspricht, die ein Streben nach höherem Wachstum und Gewinnen ablehnt." > but without growth, you can't serve existing debt burden.
academics  Politics  GFC  Europe  academia  European  Commission  fault  lines  Troika  Structural  Impediments  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  PIGS  imbalance  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Error  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  economic-thought  deleveraging  global  imbalances  mittelstand  Germany  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Former ECB Board Member Bini Smaghi Says Draghi Will Weaken Euro - Bloomberg
ECB Struggles The Frankfurt-based ECB is struggling to find new ways to help the 17-nation euro economy shake off its second recession in four years. While Draghi signalled this month that policy makers are considering cutting interest rates further, he said they haven’t yet come up with a plan to get banks lending to small and medium-sized businesses -- something the ECB has long identified as an area of economic weakness. Bini Smaghi said there’s no point in the ECB engaging in QE like the Fed, as that would involve it buying the sovereign bonds of countries like Germany, which already have record-low borrowing costs.
double-dip  debtoverhang  monetary  policy  2013  trust  economic  history  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  confidence  structural  imbalance  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  liquidity-trap  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  ECB  deleveraging  bank  crisis  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Cyprus Suspends Probe Into Who Withdrew Money Early | Zero Hedge
In a day full of stunners, we next get news from Cyprus, where a few weeks after the start of the "investigation" into who pulled their cash out of the country's doomed banking system in advance of the confiscation news on March 16 (and where even the current president was implicated in transferring over €20 milion in family money to London) the parliamentary committee tasked with tracking down the leaks, has suspended its probe. >> + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/here-we-go-cyprus-sell-%E2%82%AC400-million-gold-finance-part-its-bailout http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/europe-extends-confiscatory-non-template-template-interbank-deposits >> + in reality plans continue to push ahead to indeed 'legalize' bail-in template from Cyprus
Politics  deposit  haircut  capital  controls  Europe  haircut  accountability  European  Commission  transparency  Troika  banking  crisis  ECB  Cyprus  bankrun  deposit  levy  bank  crisis  trust  economic  history  PIGS  confidence  Laiki  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  bail-in  offshore  banking  austerity  capital  flight  PIIGS  corruption  of  Cyprus  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Interview with German Economist Peter Bofinger on Perils of Cyprus Bailout - SPIEGEL ONLINE
>> with the example of Cyprus - people having bank accounts @PIGS and or living there - will withdraw money, once the crisis intensifies again. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Italy put a on-off bank levy of 0.6% in 1992 on bank accounts. They called it "solidarity levy." > http://www.lastampa.it/2013/03/19/economia/a-nicosia-l-incubo-atene-giu-le-mani-dai-soldi-oqtF8dECetVT8OjhWFX8UP/pagina.html > http://www.crisisrepublic.com/a-history-of-bank-levies-italys-1992-bank-job/ "the whole Euro periphery is scared to death, since the Cyprus levy crushed the taboo of hitting bank depositors with losses." [What next!?] > http://www.edmundconway.com/2013/03/the-tragedy-of-cyprus/ "The price is a deeply socially-damaging one." >> http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/03/a-short-history-of-bank-deposit-and-levies.html
deposit  haircut  trust  economic  history  Europe  haircut  confidence  unintended  consequences  sovereign  debt  crisis  bail-in  history  trustagent  PIIGS  banking  crisis  Cyprus  bankrun  deposit  levy  bank  crisis 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Next Domino: Australia Doubles Tax On Retirement Savings | Zero Hedge
How much do you trust your government? >> Portugal, Ireland, Hungary & Co. raiding savings of ordinary people. raiding long-term funds for short-term holes. Promises are there to be broken. Laws to be rewritten. >> BOJ putting a tax in form of currency debasement (forced inflation / debt monetization) on its savers and pensioners. >> the problem with current form of democracy is - the short-term thinking that went on for 70 years.
currency  debasement  Politics  Europe  transferring-wealth  pension  scheme  IRA  BOJ  political  folly  Cyprus  Australia  democracy  greatrecession  lostdecade  policy  folly  JGB  middleclass  2013  lostgeneration  short-term  thinking  trust  pension  fund  working  poor  confidence  wealth  management  Error  401k  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  middle  class  USA  PIIGS  greatdepression  pension 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
ECB Re-Bluffs To Cyprus Bluff, Is "Prepared To Let Cyprus Go" | Zero Hedge
And to think: so much pain and confusion over what CNBC can't stop repeating is nothing but a tiny, little country. Tiny... maybe. But the precedent it will set may well be of Archduke Ferdinandian size.
contagion  OMT  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  sovereign  debt  crisis  Euro  Troika  PIIGS  banking  crisis  ECB  Cyprus  bank  crisis  zombi  banks  bailout  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Next: Capital Controls | Zero Hedge
That is precisely the Pandora's box that Europe has now opened, and which it is scrambling to close. How? With the dreaded "contingency plans", among which are such last ditch efforts as capital controls, including "imposing limits on daily withdrawals from bank accounts; capping the amount of money that can be electronically taken out of the country and making these transactions slower to clear; and introducing border checks to cap the amount of cash leaving in the country," most recently utilized in the banana-est of republics such as Argentina. + LEVY ON DEPOSITS "This is an unprecedented assault on individual property rights and every individual in the developed world should take notice, and far from stabilising the eurozone, the bail-out likely heightens contagion risk across the EU." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-oh-irony
capital-controls  contagion  ESM  trust  economic  history  Europe  confidence  unintended  consequences  trustagent  PIIGS  Cyprus  politcal  folly  bankrun  capital-flight  policy  folly  IMF  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Zypern-Krise: Wie sich das Land seinen Banken ausgeliefert hat - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Zypern steht vor dem Staatsbankrott, schuld sind vor allem die Banken. Jahrelang profitierte das Land von seinem überdimensionierten Finanzsektor, nun müssten die beiden größten Institute dringend abgewickelt werden. Doch die Regierung in Nikosia schreckt davor zurück - aus einem einzigen Grund. [...] Die Banken sind das eigentliche Problem Zyperns. Völlig überdimensioniert, vollgepumpt mit griechischen Staatsanleihen, de facto schon jetzt pleite. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/grossinvestor-pimco-trennt-sich-von-euro-investments-a-889960.html " Pimco glaube, dass es sich bei der Zwangsabgabe nicht nur um einen politischen Fehler der Euro-Retter handle. Stattdessen zeige das Hilfspaket, dass "der Euro weit davon entfernt ist, eine perfekte Reservewährung zu sein". > http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zypern-privatjets-fliegen-besonders-oft-nach-russland-a-889760.html
PIMCO  contagion  ESM  Political  Folly  trust  economic  history  Europe  confidence  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  Laiki  Bank  sovereign  debt  crisis  cyprus  trustagent  BIS  PIIGS  banking  crisis  ECB  bankruptcy  Bank  of  crisis  IMF  bailout  policy 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
"All The Conditions For A Total Disaster Are In Place" | Zero Hedge
We are now witnessing another radical change as a perfectly reasonable deposit guarantee is being undermined. Historians will one day explore the dark political motives behind this move. Meanwhile, we can only hope that the bad equilibrium that has just been created will not be chosen by anguished depositors. [...] Under the less benign scenario: We will have a full-fledged bank run as soon as the corralito is lifted.
corralito  2013  Politics  economic  history  Europe  unintended  consequences  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  banking  crisis  ECB  political  folly  Cyprus  bankrun  bank  crisis  Germany  policy  folly  IMF  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
17 Signs Of A Full-Blown Economic Depression Raging In Southern Europe | Zero Hedge
The percentage of bad loans in Italian banks has risen to 12.2 percent.  Back in 2007, that number was sitting at just 4.5 percent. Data from Italy's national statistics institute ISTAT showed that the country's economy shrank by 0.9pc in the fourth quarter of last year and gross domestic product was down a revised 2.8pc year-on-year. The Italian economy is in the midst of a horrifying "credit crunch" that is causing thousands of companies to go bankrupt. "The sustainability of Italian public finances is in jeopardy. The euro crisis will therefore return shortly with a vengeance."
Portugal  unemployment  2013  Greece  Spain  NPL  Europe  creditcrunch  zombie  banks  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  banking  crisis  zombie  consumer  bank  crisis  greatrecession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Saxo Bank CEO: "This Is Full-Blown Socialism And I Still Can't Believe It Happened" | Zero Hedge
This is a breach of fundamental property rights, dictated to a small country by foreign powers and it must make every bank depositor in Europe shiver. [...] Depositors in other prospective bailout countries must be running scared - is it safe to keep money in an Italian, Spanish or Greek bank any more? [...] This is a major, MAJOR game changer and the fallout will be with us for a long time to come. [...] Market reaction? it must be very good for gold - and for safe-haven countries like Switzerland, Singapore [...] This is full-blown socialism and I still cannot believe this really happened. >>> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/after-cyprus-who-next >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/cyprus-uncharted-territory-sets-sell-side-scrambling >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/socgens-post-mortem-cyprus-unique-stability-levy-aka-deposit-confiscation
ESM  PIIGS  banking  crisis  2013  Politics  Cyprus  bankrun  bank  crisis  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  bailout  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
For Everyone Shocked By What Just Happened... And Why This Is Just The Beginning | Zero Hedge
Today, lots of people woke up in shock and horror to what happened in Cyprus: a forced capital reallocation mandated by political elites under the guise of an "equity investment" in insolvent banks, which is really code for a "coercive, mandatory wealth tax." If less concerned about political correctness, one could say that what just happened was daylight robbery from savers to banks and the status quo. These same people may be even more shocked to learn that today's Cypriot "resolution" is merely the first of many such coercive interventions into personal wealth, first in Europe, and then everywhere else. [...] And with inflation woefully late in appearing and "inflating away" said debt overhang, Europe first is finally moving to Plan B, and is using Cyrprus as its Guniea Pig. http://www.scribd.com/doc/130778664/BCG-Back-to-Mesopotamia
debtoverhang  ESM  2013  Politics  debt  jubilee  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  reflation  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  greatdepression  deflation  debt  restructuring  Cyprus  inflation  greatrecession  bailout  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
IceCap Asset Management: "The Worst Is Over" | Zero Hedge
The worrisome feature of today’s global economy is that despite trillions (we repeat: trillions) in various forms of stimulus, economies around the World have not returned to the pre-2008 growth rates. > ECB may be able to artificially suppress PIIGS interest rates. but it can't create growth with QE and ZIRP > same with credit growth - stagnant. even with zero deposit interest rates for banks (overnight deposit @ECB). > that happend with Japan too. low interest rates. no growth. nil inflation. --- / What is missing is Confidence in Politics and Central Banks / ---
debtoverhang  QE  unemployment  monetary  policy  2013  Politics  trust  lostgeneration  economic  history  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  Richardkoo  lostdecade  greatrecession  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Europe's Scariest Chart Update: Italy Now Worse Than Portugal | Zero Hedge
For the first time in two years, Italy's youth unemployment rate is now higher than Portugal's at a staggering 38.7% (which is where Greece was just two years ago). Apart from Germany (which fell from 8.0% to 7.9%), every other nation saw youth unemployment rates rise with a record 24.2% of European youth unemployed. Greece (59.4%) and Spain (55.5%) remain the most concerning as we noted in the past, austerity sounds straightforward as a policy, until the consequences bite in terms of social unrest.
austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  2013  lostgeneration  Europe  greatrecession  lostdecade  youth  unemployment 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Steuerfahndern fehlen Computer und Büros - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Rund 55 Milliarden Euro schulden griechische Bürger dem Fiskus. Doch der Kampf gegen die Steuerflucht kommt laut einem Bericht von IWF und EU kaum voran: Viele Beamte der Steuerfahndung haben weder einen Computer noch einen richtigen Arbeitsplatz.
austerity  Troika  PIIGS  Greece  2013  corruption  taxevasion  IMF 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
If You Thought The European Crisis Was Over... | Zero Hedge
http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity-eurozone-and-its-implications [...] Austerity has failed. European Banks remain Rotten to the Core Sovereigns remain in Crisis [...] Since the start of the debt crisis financial markets have provided wrong signals; led by fear and panic, they pushed the spreads to artificially high levels and forced cash-strapped nations into intense austerity that produced great suffering. [...] Panic and fear are not good guides for economic policies. [...] The intense austerity programs that have been dictated by financial markets create new risks for the Eurozone. While the ECB 2012 decision to be a lender of last resort in the government bond markets eliminated the existential fears about the future of the Eurozone, the new risks for the future of the Eurozone now have shifted into the social and political sphere.
2008  debtoverhang  2013  Politics  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  WallStreet  deleveraging  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
A Century Of French And Italian Economic Decline | Zero Hedge
Italy overtook Japan with the worst real GDP growth of all advanced economies since 1991. [...] France has the most most worker-friendly environment of 40 countries analyzed. [...] All things considered, from an investment standpoint, caution continues to be warranted. [...] As shown, problems in Europe appear to be taking their toll on EU corporate profitability.
debtoverhang  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  PIIGS  greatdepression  GDP  deleveraging  Austerity  inflation  lostdecade  Japan  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
Griechenland hat an Reformeifer verloren und will Sparkurs abschwächen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Troika ist zurück in Athen - Griechenland nimmt den Besuch der internationalen Gläubiger so gelassen zur Kenntnis wie nie zuvor. Wichtige Reformen bleiben auf der Strecke, der Spareifer der Regierung ist erlahmt. Sie spielt auf Zeit und hofft auf frisches Geld.
Troika  PIIGS  greatdepression  2013  Greece  Politics  Austerity  human  tragedy  IWF  greatrecession  IMF 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
Schweizer Franken: Die hochriskante Wette der Schweizer Notenbank - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Tabus sind für immer gefallen", sagt der Genfer Professor Wyplosz. Die Zentralbanker, sagt er, "haben erkannt, dass das Wort 'unlimitiert' das einzige Werkzeug ist, das sie noch haben".

http://www.wallstreetjournal.de/article/SB10001424127887324081704578231262011018012.html
SNB  currency  debasement  currency-war  greatrecession  greatdepression  2013  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  CHF  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  economic  history 
january 2013 by asterisk2a
Neujahrsansprache der Kanzlerin: Merkel kündigt harte Zeiten an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das Schwerste kommt erst noch - diese Botschaft gibt Angela Merkel den Deutschen für 2013 mit auf den Weg. "Das wirtschaftliche Umfeld wird nicht einfacher", sagt die Kanzlerin in ihrer Neujahrsansprache. Immerhin verspricht sie, die Staatsfinanzen in Ordnung zu bringen.
2013  Greece  Europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  germany  angelamerkel  Politics 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach On Why Abe's Aggression Won't Save Japan //via ZeroHedge
The politicization of central banking continues unabated.

[...] [... GFC USA Aftermath ...]

When the bubbles burst, households understandably became fixated on balance-sheet repair – namely, paying down debt and rebuilding personal savings, rather than resuming excessive spending habits.

[...]

US consumers have pulled back as never before. In the 19 quarters since the start of 2008, annualized growth of inflation-adjusted consumer spending has averaged just 0.7% – almost three percentage points below the 3.6% trend increases recorded in the 11 years ending in 2006.

[...]

Not only is QE’s ability to jumpstart crisis-torn, balance-sheet-constrained economies limited; it also runs the important risk of blurring the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. Central banks that buy sovereign debt issued by fiscal authorities offset market-imposed discipline on borrowing costs, effectively subsidizing public-sector profligacy.
UK  stephenroach  liquidity-trap  currency-war  currency  debasement  banking  crisis  debtoverhang  France  structural  imbalance  status  quo  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  PIIGS  Europe  savings  glut  zombie  consumer  greatrecession  GFC  Richardkoo  zombie  banks  Japan  lostgeneration  lostdecade  2013  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  debt  monetisation  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  2012  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  Fed  USA  balance  sheet  recession  consumption  consumer 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Ausblick 2013: Die Krise kommt nach Europa zurück - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber die Fed liegt hier voll im Trend. Mark Carney, der jüngst ernannte nächste Gouverneur der Bank of England, denkt gar über ein nominales Ziel für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach. Das würde die Notenbank regelrecht zwingen, Inflation zu erzeugen, wenn das Realwachstum gering ist - so wie jetzt. Und der frisch gewählte japanische Regierungschef Shinzo Abe will ebenfalls, dass seine Notenbank Staatsanleihen kauft, um die Inflation anzukurbeln. Überall um uns herum wird die Geldpolitik in dramatisch aufgelockert, nur in der Euro-Zone nicht.

Die EZB hingegen muss auch weiter dem alleinigen Ziel der Preisstabilität huldigen. So steht es in den europäischen Verträgen. Zu deren strikter Einhaltung mahnen fast jeden Tag die Bundesbank und die meisten deutschen Leitartikler. Die Folgen dieser Diskrepanz in der Geldpolitik zwischen EZB und fast allen anderen großen Notenbanken sind in den Märkten überhaupt noch nicht durchgesickert. Ich erwarte eine kräftige spekulative Aufwertung des Euro...
benbernake  MarioDraghi  Mario  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  PIIGS  monetization  monetary  theory  currency-war  currency  debasement  sovereign  debt  crisis  Euro  2013  2012  BOE  Fed  inflation  reflation  BOJ  nominal  GDP  targeting  Mark  Carney  monetary  policy 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Griechenlands Bürger leiden trotz drittem Rettungspaket - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Griechenland bekommt neue Milliarden, Politiker in Brüssel und Athen feiern. Doch die Menschen im Land blicken düster in die Zukunft: Busfirmen können sich kein Benzin mehr leisten, Apotheker geben Medikamente nur noch gegen Bargeld aus. Das Vertrauen in Regierung und Euro-Partner ist verloren.
bailout  austerity  Europe  society  2012  confidence  trustagent  trust  PIIGS  Greece  Germany  Politics 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Hilfen für Griechenland belasten Bundeshaushalt - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die neuen Zusagen an Griechenland reißen ein Loch in den Bundeshaushalt: Allein im kommenden Jahr muss Deutschland mit 730 Millionen Euro weniger auskommen als geplant. Kritiker des Pakets sprechen von "politischer Insolvenzverschleppung".

Das neue Hilfspaket für Griechenland belastet den deutschen Haushalt schon im kommenden Jahr mit rund 730 Millionen Euro. Dies ergibt sich aus Äußerungen, die Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) am Dienstag zu den neuen Hilfen für Athen machte. Die Summe setzt sich aus zwei Posten zusammen: Gewinnen aus dem Anleihenkaufprogramm der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), die fortan an Griechenland überwiesen werden sollen, sowie einer Zinssenkung auf bereits gewährte Kredite für das Land.
austerity  ESM  EFSF  IMF  bailout  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIIGS  Greece  Insolvenzverschleppung  germany  ECB 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Ein Schuldenschnitt würde die Steuerzahler treffen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
IWF und EZB verlangen einen radikalen Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland. Aber wer soll die Kosten tragen? Die meisten Gläubiger haben sich längst abgesichert gegen drohende Verluste - am Ende zahlen die Bürger die Euro-Zone.

[...]

Rund 63 Milliarden Euro würden Griechenland erlassen, wenn die Euro-Partner nach aktuellem Stand auf die Hälfte ihrer Forderungen verzichten würden. Deutschland müsste etwa 17,5 Milliarden Euro beisteuern. Angesichts einer griechischen Gesamtschuldenlast von 304 Milliarden Euro wäre die Entlastung nicht besonders groß.

Experten glauben deshalb, dass langfristig noch mehr nötig sein wird, um Griechenland zu retten. "Ich halte es für illusorisch, jetzt einen großen Schuldenschnitt zu machen und zu glauben, dass es damit getan wäre", sagt Ökonom Fuest. "Aber man könnte dem Land mit einem begrenzten Schnitt zumindest einmal zwei Jahre Luft verschaffen."
confidence  trustagent  trust  Politics  Europe  ESM  EFSF  France  Germany  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  haircut  bailout  Greece  ECB  IMF 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
France and the euro: The time-bomb at the heart of Europe | The Economist
THE threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.

[Its] economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566233-france-slowly-heading-towards-crisis-says-john-peet-can-country-be-reformed

As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt.

[...] [Yet,] Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted.
IMF  Spain  economic  history  economics  Italy  unemployment  FrancoisHollande  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  GFC  competitiveness  greatrecession  Euro  Europe  austerity  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Kommentar: Der Schuldenschnitt in Griechenland wird teuer - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aus Furcht vor den deutschen Wählern sträubt sich Merkels Regierung gegen einen Schuldenschnitt und die Erkenntnis: Wir alle werden für Griechenland zahlen müssen.
[...]
Schon jetzt ist der Unmut gewaltig. Daran sind nicht nur die Schludergriechen schuld, sondern auch die Bundesregierung. Merkel und ihre Koalitionäre haben es lange vernachlässigt, den Menschen zu erklären, warum es sinnvoll ist, für Europa und auch für Griechenland einzutreten. Wie kaum eine andere Regierung haben sie die Stimmung gegen die Griechen geschürt und Argumente geliefert, warum man möglichst hart mit den Schuldensündern umgehen müsse. Nun wird es für sie umso schwerer zu erklären, warum man denselben Griechen plötzlich Geld schenken soll.

Es wird kein Weg daran vorbeiführen, dass Deutschland und andere Gläubigerstaaten für Griechenland zahlen - ob man das dann Schuldenschnitt, Pleite, Schuldenerlass oder Transfer nennt, ist zweitrangig. Wichtig ist nur, dass die verantwortlichen Politiker endlich den Mut..
trustagent  confidence  truth  economics  economic  history  IMF  austerity  greatrecession  2012  bailout  ESM  EFSF  PIIGS  haircut  Greece  angelamerkel  Politics 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Zuwanderung von Ingenieuren aus Südeuropa nützt Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So absurd es klingen mag: Die Euro-Krise hilft Unternehmen wie Ziehl-Abegg. Denn der Bewerberstrom aus Südeuropa wird in den nächsten Monaten kaum abreißen: Im ersten Halbjahr 2012 kamen netto rund 182.000 Zuwanderer nach Deutschland, 35 Prozent mehr als im Vorjahreszeitraum. Die Zahl der Portugiesen und Spanier stieg gegenüber 2011 um mehr als die Hälfte, die Zahl der griechischen Zuwanderer steig um 78 Prozent. In der Krise gilt Deutschland als letzte Zuflucht vor der Massenarbeitslosigkeit und der tiefen Rezession in ihren Heimatländern.

[...]

Imigration ... Das habe Deutschland auch bitter nötig: "Der demografische Wandel wird uns in 10 bis 15 Jahren voll treffen. Bis dahin müssen wir unser Erwerbspersonenpotential entwickeln", sagt Brücker. Ob der Zustrom aus dem Süden aber noch lange anhält, hält der Ökonom aber für sehr fraglich: "Wir haben eine einmalige Situation. Fast überall in Europa ist Krise, nur in Deutschland nicht. Das bleibt nicht für immer so."
babyboomers  demography  demographics  lostgeneration  lostdecade  greatrecession  germany  emigration  imigaration  2012  Portugal  Greece  Spain  unemployment  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Quote Of The Day: "That Was Not A Joke" | ZeroHedge
Question: Is the goal still to get Greece's debt to 120%?
Juncker: The fact is that the target of 120% will remain, but the target as far as the time frame is concerned has been postponed to 2022.
[Laughter in the room]
Juncker: That was not a joke!
sovereign  debt  crisis  Germany  greatrecession  2012  Cyprus  IMF  Europe  PIIGS  Greece 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Young, Hopeless Europeans Flock to Former Colonies — Business News - CNBC
Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho last year expressed his desperation about the situation in his country, and said that the only solution to soaring youth unemployment was for the ‘lost generation’, as the young are increasingly called, to emigrate.
austerity  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  2012  emigration  greatrecession  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Lest We Forget | ZeroHedge
The view of the ECB raises some interesting questions. I believe most would agree on two issues; first that the ECB is an insolvent institution and so highly leveraged and under-capitalized that a normal bank would have been in bankruptcy long ago but then a normal bank can’t print money. However it must also be said that the ECB is not a stand-alone institution living on another world and that the national central banks of Europe own it. Second I think most thoughtful people would agree that at some point in time that the financial condition of a central bank matters either in terms of increasing inflation by increasing the money supply or as a matter of valuation if no one or not enough financial institutions will support their currency or if some national central bank opts out on the basis of the economic threat to its citizens. This could be exemplified by Germany.

... The game could end if a major European bank falters
... Loss of Trust = Out of Bonds/Equity - into Gold&Co;.
Jens  Weidmann  Mark  Grant  operationtwist  QE3  QE2  OMT  SMP  greatrecession  GFC  unintended  consequences  Fed  ZIRP  QE  Gold  toobigtofail  confidence  trust  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  debt  monetisation  monetization  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  Germany  Bundesbank  MarioDraghi  economic  history  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  balancesheet  accounting  ECB 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Prof Martin Feldsein on Spanish economy and Euro (28Sept12) - YouTube
Report about anti austerity protests.
Report about politicians in Portugal taking a step back.

Spain, Catalonia, Politics, ...

Social fabric breaks apart.

Decline is subliminal. In-front our eyes, hardly noticeable.
confidence  trust  economic  history  Euro  fiscal  policy  ECB  IMF  fiscal  sovereignty  Pact  Troika  ESM  economics  MarianoRajoy  Catalonia  lostgeneration  greatrecession  Europe  Politics  social  contract  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Spain  Portugal  austerity 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Spain's 2013 budget a lose-lose act for Rajoy - YouTube
Deficit to widen because of no growth ...
thus keep on going with spending cuts to meet deficit targets.

Spain is very likely to request a bailout (via OMT and ESM) at the last minute ... somewhere in 2013 eventually.

Then it is about Portugal and Italy.
OMT  ESM  PIIGS  budget  deficit  2012  Europe  greatrecession  sovereign  debt  crisis  Spain  MarianoRajoy 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Without conditions, ECB intervention not credible: Draghi | ForexLive
Without Conditions, ECB Intervention Not Credible: Draghi

He says after he and his predecessor spent EUR 220 bln on peripheral debt via the Securities Market Program [SMP].

We don’t need a United States of Europe
Exceptional times sometimes call for exceptional measures
Bond buys not a departure from ECB mandate
Greatest risk to stability is from inaction

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/25/draghi-europe-faces-challenging-times/

OMT program has removed unfounded euro fears, eased market concerns
Bond program can only build a bridge

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/09/25/draghi-rates-were-too-disjointed-across-euro-area/

OMT to help stabilize many markets [#market manipulation]
OMT solely to support monetary policy transmission (cough, cough)
[OMT] Does not represent financing of governments
monetary  policy  2012  PIIGS  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  OMT  SMP  MarioDraghi 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
EZB-Juristen prüfen Anleihen-Aufkaufprogramm - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Betreibt die Europäische Zentralbank mit ihrem Aufkaufprogramm für Anleihen versteckte Staatsfinanzierung? Offenbar wappnen sich die Währungshüter gegen diesen Vorwurf. Laut "Bild"-Zeitung prüfen Juristen von EZB und Bundesbank die Rechtmäßigkeit der Käufe.

Nicht ausgeschlossen wird dem Bericht zufolge dabei, dass die brisante Frage demnächst dem Europäischen Gerichtshof zur Klärung vorgelegt wird. Für diesen Fall wollten sich EZB und Bundesbank juristisch wappnen. Hintergrund sei der Streit um die Frage, ob die EZB mit den Aufkäufen gegen das EU-vertragliche Verbot von direkter Staatsfinanzierung verstoße.
Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  ECB  Jens  Weidmann  Bundesbank  2012  monetary  policy  monetarism  monetization  OMT 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Verfassungsgericht überlässt Politik Lösung der Euro-Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Bisher haben die Richter die nationale Souveränität verteidigt - diese hat sich mit dem ESM-Spruch erledigt. Karlsruhe hat den Weg frei gemacht für eine Fiskalunion.

[...]

Auch der Hinweis auf eine formelle Haftungsobergrenze ist naiv. Die größte Gefahr für Deutschland besteht nicht in den offiziellen Finanzrisiken des Rettungsschirms, sondern in den nicht quantifizierbaren Risiken, etwa durch das innereuropäische Zahlungssystem Target 2 oder durch erneuten Kapitalbedarf von Banken im Falle eines Zusammenbruchs des Euro.

[...]

! Go-Ahead signal for future bailouts in return for giving up fiscal sovereignty !

Mit dem jetzigen Urteil signalisiert das Verfassungsgericht hingegen grünes Licht. Denn die Kombination aus einem permanenten Rettungsschirm, einem nicht kündbaren Fiskalpakt und unbegrenzten Bond-Käufen durch die Europäische Zentralbank laufen genau auf eine Fiskalunion hinaus. Ein Urteil gegen den ESM wäre die letzte rechtliche Möglichkeit gewesen, den Trend zu stoppen.
europeanunion  Politics  Kafka  Franz  Kafka  philosophy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  OMT  ECB  fiscal  sovereignty  2012  bank  crisis  banking  union  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Grexit  target2-system  EFSF  ESM  Europe  democracy  liberty  European  Pact  Germany  German  Constitutional  Court 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts (Dokumentation) - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die deutsche Haftungsobergrenze von 190 Milliarden Euro ist laut Urteil von Politikern mehrfach als unantastbar bezeichnet worden und auch in den ESM-Reglungen festgeschrieben. Trotzdem sehen die Richter Vorsicht geboten:

"Die Bundesrepublik Deutschland muss deutlich zum Ausdruck bringen, dass sie an den ESM-Vertrag insgesamt nicht gebunden sein kann, falls sich der von ihr geltend gemachte Vorbehalt als unwirksam erweisen sollte."

Fiscal Pact
Nach Art 109 Abs 3 Satz 2 in Verbindung mit Art. 115 Abs. 2 Satz 3 GG kann bei einer konjunkturellen Entwicklung, die von der Normallage abweicht, sowie bei Naturkatastrophen oder außergewöhnlichen Notsituationen, die sich der Kontrolle des Staates entziehen und die staatliche Finanzlage erheblich beeinträchtigen, von den Defizitvorgaben abgewichen werden."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100019964/german-constitutional-court-ratifies-esm-bailout-but-that-wont-save-the-euro/
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  OMT  2012  German  Constitutional  Court  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  EFSF  ESM  Germany 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
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