asterisk2a + opec   61

Banker Leonhard Fischer über selbstzerstörerischen Finanzkapitalismus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Fischer: Die Globalisierung der Finanzmärkte besteht im Wesentlichen darin, dass die Amerikaner sich in ihrer eigenen Währung verschulden können und den Dollar so in die ganze Welt exportiert haben, um ihr riesiges Leistungsbilanzdefizit zu finanzieren. Ich habe als junger Banker bei J.P. Morgan selbst erlebt, wie die Investmentbanker in Scharen erst nach London flogen, dann nach Tokio und schließlich nach China, um Dollaranleihen für Schuldner aus den USA zu platzieren. Gleichzeitig investierten wir das Geld amerikanischer Fonds weltweit in Unternehmen und Immobilien. Ganz Amerika hat sich wie ein gigantischer Hedgefonds verhalten. So entstand die globale Finanzmarktmaschinerie, die in Wahrheit vor allem eine amerikanische ist.
Bitcoin  Dollar  fiat  currency  GFC  petro  WallStreet  Chomsky  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  globalization  China  IMF  USA  Empire  Capitalism  exploitation  economic  history  Blyth  Austerity  Chicago  liberalism  trust  oil  OPEC  petrodollar  Fed  bailout  self-regulation  money 
december 2017 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Global Energy Crisis (Summer Solutions series E946) - YouTube
last minute; Saudi's thing the oil is worth less in 2-3-10-20 years. than right now. thus, the IPO! extracting the last value out of national resource. gung ho about now now now. thus the OPEC-disablement is a symptom
OPEC  Saudi  Arabia  Oil  Price  Energy 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Oil exporter talks hit difficulties in Doha
A meeting of leading oil exporting countries in Qatar, called to address the low level of prices, has run into difficulties.
Reports from Qatar's capital Doha, say the problem is tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The agenda for the meeting is whether to freeze production levels.
Iran has consistently refused to take such steps but Saudi officials have at times appeared willing to take such action only if Iran were to as well. //&! failed at the end to come to, what would have been, a historic agreement - bit.ly/1SfbyYF
OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  secular  stagnation  2016  global  economy  western  world  Saudi  Arabia  Iran 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Saudi Arabia Threatens To Liquidate Its Treasury Holdings If Congress Probes Its Role In Sept 11 Attacks
[...] But the threat is another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States. [...] "Obama has been lobbying so intently against the bill that some lawmakers and families of Sept. 11 victims are infuriated. In their view, the Obama administration has consistently sided with the kingdom and has thwarted their efforts to learn what they believe to be the truth about the role some Saudi officials played in the terrorist plot." //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-15/one-man-asks-why-was-tritium-found-911-ground-zero
9/11  Saudi  Arabia  gwbush  georgewbush  bush  China  Japan  USA  reserve  currency  USD  Dollar  petrodollar  Middle  East  Taliban  al-Qaeda  al-Qaida  osamabinladen  OPEC  sovereign  wealth  fund  geopolitics  diplomacy  barackobama  foreign  affairs  Intelligence  foreign  relations  War  on  Terror  Pakistan  India  Hegemony  arms  trade  UK 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
IEA warns consumers of spike in oil prices - BBC News
[ Saudie's playing game of who has the deepest pockets against USA and Canada ] The International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning consumers not to let cheap oil lull them into a false sense of security amid forecasts of a price spike by 2021. In a report, the IEA said it expects prices to start recovering in 2017. But it forecasts that will be followed by a sharp jump in price as supply shrinks following under-investment by struggling producers.
OPEC  shale  gas  fracking  Saudi  Arabia  aggregate  demand  BRIC  China  credit  bubble  commodity  prices  secular  stagnation  Russia  Middle  East  Iran  Iraq  Oil  price  petrodollar  petrodollars  Petroleum  Industry  fossil  fuel  underinvestment 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Oil falls despite Saudi-Russian output deal - BBC News
Oil prices fell on Tuesday despite Saudi Arabia and Russia agreeing to freeze oil output at January levels if other producers follow suit. The announcement came after ministers from the two nations met in Doha along with their counterparts from Venezuela and Qatar.
Oil  price  OPEC 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Norway seeks to diversify its economy as oil earnings plunge - BBC News
As oil prices have collapsed, it's become clear that Norway has caught what used to be called the Dutch disease - an overreliance on one industry, in this case the oil and gas sector. With its upmarket waterfront restaurants and the Barcode office blocks, the Sorenga dockside development serves as a poignant reminder of how prosperous Norway had become while the going was still good. [...] Unbalanced economy [...] "The oil and gas industry became too strong in our economy, especially during the last four or five years, reflects Prime Minister Erna Solberg. "Most of the growth came from that sector, and our strong currency left some of our traditional industries behind." [...] Household debts have reached more than 200% of annual disposable income [ Dutch Disease; UK & USA = domestic consumption, Germany = exports and its name, London = Finance and wealthy expats/non-doms, Switzerland = exports and its name , China = export, Brazil = commodity export ]
Norway  Aberdeen  Oil  price  commodity  prices  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  economic  history  reflate  reflation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  aggregate  demand  Dutch  Disease  distortion  financial  repression  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  unemployment  OPEC 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
BP makes record loss and axes 7,000 jobs | Business | The Guardian
£6bn wiped off stock market value of oil company as investors react to losses and increasing Deepwater Horizon liablities [...] In the meantime the company plans to divest up to $8bn of assets over the next two years and cut 4,000 jobs from its exploration arm and 3,000 from “downstream” refining. Many of the exploration posts will be in Houston but some could also be in Aberdeen. [...] “No one is making money (in the key North American market) at $30 per barrel oil and every oil company is taking as many writedowns as they can. These are largely paper losses and its an absolute over-reaction to mark down BP shares by 9%.”
Oil  price  commodity  prices  fracking  shale  gas  USA  OPEC 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
No, Goldman Is Not Calling For An "Oil Bull Market": Here Is What It Really Said And Why It's Bad News For Banks | Zero Hedge
And herein lies the rub, because the more energy suppliers go into bankruptcy to remove the excess supply which is the critical condition of Goldman's upside case, the greater the shock will be among the banking system which is clearly underreserved for a mass default wave. To wit, just moments ago Wells admitted that it is among the most exposed banks to the energy sector: WELLS FARGO HAS $17 BIL OF OUTSTANDING ENERGY LOANS: CFO
Oil  price  NPL  shale  gas  fracking  USA  OPEC  commodity  prices 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
BHP Billiton writes down $7.2bn of shale assets - BBC News
BHP Billiton has written down the value of its US shale assets by $7.2bn (£5bn) as a result of the dive in oil prices.
Oil  price  OPEC  shale  gas  fracking  commodity  prices 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
A glut of crude politics - BBC News
It turns out US unconventional oil and gas production is more resilient, at a lower price, than the Saudis and others had predicted. Break-even for the new Texas and Dakota wells is higher than current prices (US West Texas Intermediate is below $37.50). So there is some expectation that supply from that American source will fall away in the next few months, as fracked wells lose pressure. But given the technology, it takes not much time to crank it back up again - once the price rises. [...] But the word from Oil and Gas UK is that there is now a "sustained fear" that prices will stay low for a long time. One of the trade body's senior managers told BBC radio on Wednesday that fields are losing money at current prices, and some aren't even covering their production costs. The consequence, says, Mike Tholen, will be fewer fields producing by the end of 2016. And with exploration all but dried up, there won't be fields to replace them. //&! bbc.in/1O0Rj4d
OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  commodities  recovery  global  economy  Saudi  Arabia  unintended  consequences  energy  price  energy  policy  short-termism  unknown  unkown 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Paralysed Opec pleads for allies as oil price crumbles - Telegraph
The cartel is no longer able to steer prices and risks going the way of the Texas Railroad Commission. The oil market has become a jungle
OPEC  Oil  price 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Record oil glut stands at 3bn barrels - BBC News
Although lower oil prices will lead to a decline in US production next year, the IEA said it would take months to clear the glut. "This massive cushion has inflated even as the global oil market adjusts to $50 per barrel. Demand growth has risen to a five-year high of nearly two million barrels per day," the agency said. "Gains in demand have been outpaced by vigorous production from OPEC and resilient non-OPEC supply." Growth in global demand for oil is expected to fall in 2016 as the allure of lower prices fades, the IEA added. //&! bbc.in/1HH3VL1 - So as China goes through what's being called the "new normal", it's likely that commodity producers are going to have to accept the same fate for themselves too.
Oil  price  OPEC  secular  stagnation  recovery  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BRIC  Brazil  China  GFC  economic  history 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
Krieg ǀ Evolution der Gewalt — der Freitag
Krieg Die Geschichte der Kriege hört nicht auf, sie ändern nur ihre Form und ihre Gestalt: Herfried Münklers neuer Wälzer // Kriegssplitter: Die Evolution der Gewalt im 20. und 21. Jahrhundert Herfried Münkler Rowohlt 2015, 400 S., 24,95 €
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
Russland und Syrien: Das Ende der alten Weltordnung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Viel wichtiger aber ist, nach vorne zu schauen. Die alten Sicherheitsstrukturen aus dem vergangenen Jahrhundert taugen nicht mehr. Nach dem Ende des ersten Kalten Krieges haben die Regierungen versäumt, sie weiterzuentwickeln und sich naiv auf der Friedensdividende ausgeruht. Der Krieg in der Ukraine und das russische Abenteuer in Syrien sind die Folge dieses Versagens. Die eigene Sicherheit oder Einflusssphäre auf Kosten anderer erhöhen zu wollen, führt nicht zu mehr, sondern zu weniger Sicherheit und Stabilität. Europa braucht deshalb neue Absprachen über Sicherheit und Zusammenarbeit. Europa braucht ein neues Helsinki.
NATO  diplomacy  Ukraine  Ukrain  Crimea  Crimea  Crisis  Russia  Putin  geopolitics  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  Intelligence  vladimirputin  presidency  barackobama  Syrien  Syria  Iran  OPEC  Arab  League  Middle  East  National  Security  Career  Politicians  status  quo  Cold  War  cyber  corporate  espionage  Nationalism  industrial  espionage  cyber  espionage  China  India  neoliberalism  neoliberal  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  UK  Germany  USA  France  European  Union  Turkey  Drone  Warfare  Drone  Strike  Pakistan  War  on  Terror  Afghanistan  Iraq  War  Iraq  G  Zero 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
VIDEO: ‘Days of Revolt’ With Chris Hedges: ISIS, the New Israel - Truthdig
https://youtu.be/Go5vYcrwlOM // Hedges begins by pointing out how the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916, responsible for “carving up the Middle East and turning countries into protectorates,” has been changed only twice—once with the Israeli independence and now with Islamic State. As Hedges put it, the tactics used to redraw the map in the Middle East are both effective and familiar, including the “use of foreign money, use of foreign fighters, tactics of ethnic cleansing and terrorism and this mythical vision—in the case of Israel, the recreation of Judea and Sumeria from the Bible, and in the case of ISIS, the recreation of the seventh-century caliphate.” Alnasseri agrees, opening his response with the observation that “to understand the pheonomenon of ISIS, we need to contextualize it within the setbacks and counter-revolution against the Arab revolutions.“ [...] 'Iraq can not be re-united.'
ISIS  History  Middle  East  Iraq  Arab  League  Arab-Spring  Israel  public  awareness  public  perception  public  opinion  Drone  Strike  Drone  Warfare  military–industrial  complex  military  intervention  human  rights  war  crime  USA  UK  geopolitics  Iran  OPEC  public  debate  public  discourse  Career  Politicians  foreign  affairs  Aid  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  Afghanistan  al-Qaida  Taliban  Sunni  Shia  PKK  Turkey  Yemen  Boko  Haram  extremism  Africa  Nigeria  Syrien  Syria  Egypt  Iraq  civil  war  Assad 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
credit  bubble  2015  Taper  centralbanks  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Richard  Koo  Debt  Super  Cycle  BRIC  AIIB  World  Bank  recovery  global  economy  global  trade  globalization  globalisation  flat  borderless  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  malinvestment  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  China  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  OPEC  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  western  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  austerity  divergence  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Niall  Ferguson  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inequality  Gini  coefficient  NPL  shadow  banking  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  creditrating  distortion  financial  financial  crisis  GFC 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Anatomy of Brazil's Financial Meltdown - Bloomberg View
Brazil desperately needs a circuit breaker to eliminate the mounting threat of cascading negative outcomes. The best way to achieve this would be a series of official decisions, designed by the government and passed by the legislature, that restore the country's growth dynamic, contain its fiscal deterioration and reverse mounting inflationary pressures.
BRIC  credit  bubble  commodity  prices  China  Russia  OPEC  Oil  price  2015  centralbanks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  western  world  secular  stagnation  global  economy  global  trade  global  imbalances  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Egon Krenz: der Kalte Krieg war nie zu Ende by Sputnik Deutschland
Europa ohne Russland geht nicht. USA sieht nicht gern das Europa/Deutschland gut mit Russland sind. [...] Die idee des kommunismus ist nicht tod zu kriegen. [...] Der kapitalismus kann nicht das letzte wort gehabt haben. [...] AIIB & BRIC (+South Africa) - ohne USA, ohne EU (ja nicht alle, Germany in AIIB)! // TTIP und co. schliesst BRIC aus. Punkt!!! USA will sich wirtschafts and und politische macht sichern mit TTIP und TPP before es zu spaet ist. // battle of ideas. battle to capture parts of new world, global trade and economy, future generations (emerging middle class).
Ukraine  Ukrain  Russia  vladimirputin  Putin  Europe  NATO  Cold  War  cyber  Middle  East  USA  foreign  affairs  geopolitics  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  Intelligence  German  reunification  UK  East  Europe  United  Nations  Security  Council  United  Nations  Angela  Merkel  Leadership  Crimea  Crimea  Crisis  presidency  barackobama  David  Cameron  diplomacy  Baltic  States  Balkan  East  Germany  east-europe  east-germany  China  World  Police  global  economy  sanctions  protectionism  global  trade  BRIC  European  Union  Turkey  Eurasia  Germany  cooperation  GCHQ  NSA  surveillance  state  Surveillance-Industrial  Complex  history  Aid  Arab  League  OPEC  military–industrial  military  intervention  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  neoliberalism  neoliberal  ISIS  al-Qaida  Taliban  Iraq  War  Iraq  Iran  Afghanistan  globalization  globalisation  TTIP  TPP  CETA  cablegate  Wikileaks  AIIB  World  Bank  TISA  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  capitalism  ideology  dogma  emerging  class  Developing  World  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  political  economy  political  science  political  theory  Niall  Ferguson  Africa  South  Africa 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Michael Lüders über den Krieg in Syrien - 10.09.2015 - YouTube
- Russia about to support Assad!? If Assad falls, ISIS all across Syria. West Airstrike tactic/offinsive is only for public posturing. And Saudi Arabia is supplying ISIS. And West has a foot in Iran after atom-negotiations. Israel is another political/geopolitical/religious player. And NATO gives green light to bomb PKK which fights against ISIS. ... LOL. // ISIS, Taliban, al-Qaida is made in USA. // Europe pays price for USA foreign policy! trying to export western values and democracy into Middle East. // 20 year civil war in Middle East followed by decades of USA military intervention. // USA training fighter to fight against ISIS and Assad is not working! // Diplomacy is falling short. Especially w current sactions against Russia by West because of Ukraine/Crimea Crisis. // Complexity of situation can not be solved w bombs and military invasion ... // &! youtu.be/mLm6Yn5lrX4 - Book - Middle East history.
Saudi  Arabia  Middle  East  Syrien  Syria  Assad  Iraq  War  Afghanistan  Pakistan  Jordan  Foreign  Aid  Eritrea  Africa  history  military  intervention  military–industrial  complex  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  UK  USA  Germany  European  Union  Lybia  Egypt  Arab-Spring  food  prices  National  Security  civil  ISIS  al-Qaida  Russia  Ukraine  Ukrain  China  Turkey  Israel  Gaza-Israel  conflict  Religion  OPEC  Iran  affairs  policy  relations  Noam  Chomsky  geopolitics  Taliban  NATO  PKK  Crimea  Crisis  vladimirputin  Putin  diplomacy  refugee  2015  WW2  British  Empire  Empire  World  Police  presidency  barackobama  Career  Politicians  Machtspiele  Machtgehabe  Machtpolitik  extremism  9/11 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE "As Soon As This Week" | Zero Hedge
The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go." Deutsche was kind enough to provide a silver lining to this otherwise dreary forecast: "What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates." [... or the shadowy actor Belgium - bit.ly/1LWtQQ9 &! bit.ly/1Ib2oNo - might have been a smoke mirror of the PBOC using "Euroclear", but the rabbit is out of the hat now! ] //&! bloom.bg/1JBiywV - Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall. The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
QT  Quantitative  Tightening  Taper  QE  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  2015  China  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  reserve  currency  petrodollar  PBOC  centralbanks  reserves  FX  reserves  Treasury  Market  treasuries  bond  bubble  reflate  reflation  distortion  economic  history  global  trade  global  growth  global  economy  OPEC  Russia 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar | Zero Hedge
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order. In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous loop. [...] For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative. [...] the world is now beginning to feel the impact of the petrodollar's quiet demise. // &! Follow-on! bit.ly/1IGh4O3
petrodollar  OPEC  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  2015  Oil  price  FX  reserves  China  Asia  emerging  market  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  market  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  treasuries  Treasury  bond  bubble  faultlines  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - 2016 Economic Collapse - YouTube
17:00 - Russia dumping Treasuries. China dumping Treasuries. Belgium (who?) buying them up!? zerohedge reported on that. Why Belgium? Belgium is a front - smoke mirror, smoking gun! // 19:00 petrodollar. Iran. // Financial War Fare (& Cyber War Fare.) // Global Stealth Gold Run as insurance scheme as end of dollar as reserve currency scenario (hedge). Zerohedge has shown that worlds central banks have pulled continuously their gold from NY Fed // 28:00 Fed monetary policy puts dollar status in peril according to IMF. Central banks started long ago to diversify their reserve holdings and reduce dollars for other holdings. //// &! See end of the petrodollar and what it means (bad for all USD denominated assets) - bit.ly/1hBuuWo AND See QT 2015/2016 - China and everyone else selling Treasuries and USD FX reserves because they have to = quantitative tightening. treasury prices up (higher yield). --- bit.ly/1IGh4O3
treasuries  Treasury  Market  USA  Fed  bond  bubble  2015  China  Russia  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  USD  globalization  globalisation  petrodollar  OPEC  QT  Quantitative  Tightening  emerging  book  Dollar  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why Oil-Producing Countries Keep on Pumping - Bloomberg View
The simplest explanation for this phenomenon is that the producers need the cash; the lower the price, the more they need to sell to maintain revenue. Among the trio of top oil producers -- Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. -- this need-for-cash argument works best for Russia. Last year, as crude prices began to tank, it quickly floated its currency. Since then, the ruble has devalued in lockstep with oil, so that every extra barrel sold produces the same revenue in rubles, which is the currency of the government's budget. As a result, Russia has no reason to cut production, even if it probably will suffer a future decline in output, because its major oil companies have sharply reduced investment.
OPEC  Oil  price  commodities  energy  price 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Crash bei Dax und Dow: Das war's mit Illusion Nummer drei - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Solange die Weltwirtschaft brummt, kann eine einzelne Volkswirtschaft ihre Währung so lange abwerten, bis sie wieder wettbewerbsfähig ist und der Aufschwung fast von alleine kommt. Globale Krisen funktionieren anders. Die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt kann nicht abwerten. Sie kann nur produktiver werden, aber nicht wettbewerbsfähiger. Da alle großen Wirtschaftsregionen der Welt - USA, Euroraum, Russland, China, Japan und Südostasien - ihre Mega-Krisen in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten hatten, gibt es auch keinen Unversehrten mehr, der die Rolle einer weltwirtschaftlichen Lokomotive übernehmen könnte. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft verlangsamt sich somit stetig. [...] Die fetten Jahre sind vorbei [...] [ Share buyback was hot in 2014/15 till now ] [...] Die Verschiebung der Macht von Arbeit zu Kapital schreitet nicht weiter fort. [ low interest rate environment bc low capital returns, new Millennials have to serve now this debt burden and can't hope to inflate it away. & stagnant wages! ]
IMF  OECD  global  economy  global  trade  globalisation  global  imbalances  globalization  borderless  flat  world  GFC  dot.com  recovery  reflate  reflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  economic  history  austerity  2015  China  USA  UK  Europe  savings  glut  structural  imbalance  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  participation  rate  productivity  Great  Moderation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  inflation  expectation  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  share  buyback  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  public  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  M&A  mainstreet.org  crony  capitalism  exploitation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  capitalism  bank  bailout  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  political  theory  structural  unemployment  Impediments  faultlines  policy  social  l 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! bit.ly/1EQ31Fn &! bit.ly/1F1zPue - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
correction  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  emerging  market  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  2015  unknown  unkown  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  China  USA  western  world  secular  stagnation  Developing  developed  world  Europe  UK  Singapore  Asia  global  economy  global  trade  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  economic  history  Taper  Abenomics  Japan  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  Richard  Koo  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  deflationary  deflation  job  creation  job  market  participation  rate  industrial  policy  Makers  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  PBOC  distortion  faultlines  Impediments  STEM  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Paul  Krugman  Larry  Summers  Ben  Bernanke  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  fiscal  stimulus  George  Osborne  dogma  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  ideology 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $80 Oil - Bloomberg View
[ new duopoly? - USA - OPEC, and OPEC not wanting that?! ] I'm sticking with my forecast of $10 to $20 a barrel. The logic behind that February projection still seems valid. Cartels exist to keep prices above equilibrium. But that encourages cheating, as cartel members want more than their allotted share and outsiders sell more to take advantage of the artificially elevated price. So the job of the cartel leader -- in OPEC's case, Saudi Arabia -- is to cut its production to accommodate the cheaters and prevent a price collapse. The Saudis had been doing that for decades, and as a result, OPEC production over the last 10 years has been flat, with all the growth instead enjoyed by non-OPEC producers, including U.S. frackers and Canadian oil-sands companies. [...] In Texas's Permian Basin and in the Persian Gulf, the marginal cost is $10 to $20 a barrel, and even lower for some Saudi oil fields. [...] Russia is desperate for anything that will earn foreign exchange. // &! bv.ms/1yKiZBs
OPEC  cartel  Oil  price  oligopol  monopoly  duopoly  marginal  cost  Saudi  Arabia  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  Middle  East  Russia  China  deflationary  deflation  fracking  shale  gas  shalegas  USA  energy  price  energy  policy  renewable  energy  2015  economic  history 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Global economy woes spark share falls - BBC News
Fed released minutes from its meeting on 28-29 July, showing that one policymaker was ready to vote for an interest rate rise at the meeting. Overall, the Fed thought conditions for a US rate rise "were approaching", but the economy was not ready yet. Other policymakers remained concerned that inflation would remain weak because of the strong dollar and falling commodity prices, which act as a double depressant on imports. The Fed's key interest rate has been kept near zero since December 2008. There has been speculation that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in September, and last month Fed chair Janet Yellen said she thought a rate rise this year was likely. Following the release of the Fed's minutes, US stocks rallied briefly but then fell back, while the dollar weakened on the currency markets. The Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading down 0.9%. [...] The committee also cited China as a potential problem, [...] [econ growth has 2 be sufficiently strong, incl labour mrkt]
China  Yuan  RMB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  dis-inflation  deflationary  deflation  Fed  PBOC  currency  debasement  devaluation  currency  war  currency-war  Dollar  Japan  Yen  BOJ  Abenomics  economic  history  Taper  2015  recovery  labour  market  participation  rate  unemployment  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  BIS  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  New  Normal  FOMC  commodity  prices  global  trade  global  economy  headwinds 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
North Sea oil giant - do not risk the UK's 'engineering legacy' - BBC News
The whole sector is important, worth £27bn to the British economy. Malcolm Webb, the former chief executive of Oil and Gas UK, described it as a "core component of the UK's engineering and manufacturing base" which "enjoys a worldwide reputation for excellence and innovation honed over 40 years at the cutting edge of exploration and production". And it is for that reason that it is worth listening when Mr Keiller says that - despite the rapid fall in the oil price - the North Sea is still a vital part of the UK's manufacturing future. "We have a fantastic engineering skills base here in the UK," Mr Keiller said. "It creates high quality job opportunities that can be exported to many different countries around the world. I have people in Aberdeen designing the most sophisticated sub-sea oil and gas developments for deep water offshore for South America and Africa and elsewhere. "These high quality jobs can exist way beyond the life of the North Sea." [...] sector still employs 400k
UK  STEM  industrial  policy  Oil  price  Aberdeen  OPEC  renewable  energy  green  energy  engineering  engineer  Smart  Grid  professional  education  vocational  education 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftslage: Ungebremst in die nächste Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So instabil, wie die Lage ist, bedarf es womöglich nur eines vergleichsweise kleinen Anstoßes, um die nächste Krise auszulösen. Und was passiert dann? [...] Kaum noch Spielräume, nirgends. Weder die Finanzpolitik noch die Zinspolitik kann bei einem erneuten Abschwung viel ausrichten. Das gilt auch für die Schwellenländer: Russland & Brasilien mühen sich, ihre Zahlungsfähigkeit zu sichern. Sogar Saudi-Arabien muss sich im Ausland verschulden. China's [...] Kapitalmarktblase aufgebläht und leidet nun unter einer der höchsten privatwirtschaftlichen Verschuldungsquoten aller Emerging Markets. Die ernsten Schwierigkeiten, vor denen die Volksrepublik steht, zeichnen sich bereits seit Langem ab. [...] Japan ist dann überall. [debt fuelled recovery (fiscal stimulus) that always were. now we have austerity & the "recovery" reflects that. plus deflationary effects; further globalisation, flat borderless world, technology, commoditisation of XYZ, future consumer (growth) not in the west!, etc]
UK  USA  Europe  recovery  2015  Taper  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  austerity  OECD  IMF  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BIS  Japan  China  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  secular  stagnation  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  fiscal  stimulus  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  Oil  price  OPEC  deflationary  deflation  currency  war  currency  debasement  hunt  for  yield  distortion  bank  bailout  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  inflation  expectation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  Developing  Frontier  Markets 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
equity  bubble  BOJ  Abenomics  China  2015  western  world  developed  world  Taper  QE  NIRP  ZIRP  economic  history  global  economy  global  trade  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Yen  Richard  Koo  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  GFC  trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  bailout  microeconomic  policy  microeconomics  behavioral  finance  deleveraging  debt  servitude  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Psychology  sociology  savings  rate  uncertainty  insecurity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Foreign Affairs Expert Leslie Gelb: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View | Free Listening on SoundCloud
Leslie Gelb, wrote Pentagon Papers. Which Ellsberg leaked (Whistleblower) - bit.ly/1Lgsq2D // Back in the days, national interests and force was expressed in war and seldomly in economic embargos (Napoleon tried that against British Empire) and there were economic skirmishes (oil/diesel, rubber) in the run-up to WW2 and the first couple of months before USA officially entered WW2. TODAY! National interests are only expressed in economic terms with trade embargoes, tariffs, trade deals and protectionism. Only little military skirmishes here and there and when, the nation tries to hide them from the publics eye (through rouge nations for hire army/special forces, a nations secret services supplying the underground arms trade that doesn't show up on its balance sheet or one of their nations manufacturers. West excluded Russia from recent G8 summit in Munich and made it G7. Russia/Europe/USA playing game of chicken of economic escalation. Or using corporate actors & new cyber war!
Russia  protectionism  embargo  Iran  nuclear  power  USA  Latin  America  corporate  state  national  interest  Nationalism  Europe  UK  cyber  crime  cyber  war  NSA  GCHQ  Surveillance-Industrial  Complex  surveillance  state  Orwellian  corporate  espionage  industrial  espionage  cyber  espionage  Crimea  Crimea  Crisis  presidency  barackobama  vladimirputin  Putin  China  Asia  Pakistan  Drone  Strike  Drone  Warfare  Africa  history  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  Afghanistan  Irak  Israel  Gaza-Israel  conflict  Germany  Ukraine  Ukrain  Angela  Merkel  Pentagon  CIA  MI6  Japan  SouthChinaSea  South  Korea  military–industrial  military  intervention  IT  Security  collateral  damage  international  relations  Security  False  Flag  on  Terror  ISIS  al-Qaida  book  G7  G8  United  Nations  Security  Council  NATO  OPEC  Oil  price  Saudi  Arabia  Arab  League  Cuba  Vietnam  WMD  smoking  gun  Syria  Syrien 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
Taber  bond  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  recovery  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  competition  competitive  competitiveness  borderless  flat  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  technological  progress  creative  destruction  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  STEM  developed  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  financial  incentive  incentive  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  incomplete  information  complexity  OPEC  Europe 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Saudi Arabia will need deep pockets if it is to win its oil war with US | Larry Elliott | World news | The Guardian
Riyadh’s plan to raise $27bn from bond sales is a sign that its economic battle with United States is taking its toll [...] Saudi Arabia is an expensive country to run for the House of Saud. Fearful of Iran, it has imported the latest military kit to show that it is the Middle East’s regional superpower. Higher defence spending has also been needed to fund action in Yemen and to counter the threat from Islamic State. In addition, Saudi Arabia has an unemployment problem that it fears may become a social unrest problem. Two-thirds of the population is under 30 and the unemployment rate for the 16-29 age group is 29%. [...] [IMF] estimates that Saudi Arabia is on course to run a budget deficit of 20% of national income this year. [...] oil accounts for almost 90% of Saudi Arabia’s revenues, [...] Saudis are now embroiled in a long – and expensive – war of attrition. And one they may not win. // &! /bbc.in/1gmHu0V
OPEC  shale  gas  shalegas  Oil  price  tarsand  fracking  USA  Europe  Saudi  Arabia  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  democracy  Religion  western  world  fiscal  policy  industrial  policy  Career  Politicians  corruption  bribery  Islamic  Law  Law  &  Justice  Justice  System  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  2015  national  interest 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Royal Dutch Shell cuts 6,500 jobs - BBC News
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has announced it has shed 6,500 jobs as part of cost-cutting plans as it seeks to counter falling oil prices. // &! bbc.in/1OPYI2I - British Gas owner Centrica cuts 6,000 jobs [...] However, the strong performance at British Gas was offset by a collapse in profits at Centrica's oil and gas production division. Profits in this unit fell 78% to £116m as a result of lower oil prices. [...] Centrica appointed Iain Conn as chief executive at the start of this year. He has been conducting a strategic review of the business over the past five months, which has concluded Centrica should concentrate on the British Gas side of the business and reduce its activities in actual energy production, which takes major investment. That is a less attractive business currently, as raw energy costs, such as oil, are around $50-60 a barrel, half the levels of last year. Centrica said it was assuming the oil price would not move far from that for the foreseeable future.
energy  price  2015  Oil  price  recovery  global  economy  China  secular  stagnation  economic  growth  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  deflationary  deflation  disinflation  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Taper  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  energy  market  renewable  energy  green  energy  energy  security  wind  energy  energy  policy  energy  efficiency  competitive  competitiveness  OPEC  shale  gas  fracking  shalegas  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  debt-fuelled  recovery  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  productive  investment  asset  allocation  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
How plunging oil prices have created a volatile new force in the global economy | Business | The Guardian
The new Saudi strategy has caused ripples across the world, knocking off pricey drilling operations everywhere from the Arctic to South America. More broadly, lower energy prices have delivered a blow to oil-dependent nations, pressuring state-run oil firms, causing a currency slump in Nigeria, and contributing to major economic contractions in Venezuela and Russia. Some experts also say that the Saudis are hoping to cut off the fracking boom at its knees. If they’d allowed prices to stay high, US production would have continued to grow rapidly.
OPEC  shale  gas  fracking  USA  geopolitics  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  petrodollars 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside Story: Oil wars - Shifting balance of power? - YouTube
OPEC will export more and more to ASIA/emerging and developing world. and western world will wean itself off oil. // still USA, the world police, is only one secury the energy security corridor to asia, there is no direct link to USA anymore. // still energy security is still in academics mind. rising population and rising middle class in ASIA, Africa, Eurasia, Latin America, ... // every country needs an energy mix, period. but it's not about which direction, it's about the willingness to invest in efficient enough renewable sources. //
geopolitics  OPEC  Asia  fracking  shale  gas 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Oil firm Talisman Sinopec plans 300 North Sea job cuts
production cost higher, price lower, OPEC playing hard ball (it wants high production cost facilities (tar sands oil sands shale gas and expensive deep sea well operations and explorations to go bust under low oil prices for the next 6-12 months. it thinks it has the longer breath, deeper purse - HELLO WORLD!) = job cuts. first "asset" to go. --- BP, Shell, Chevron and Conoco Phillips have all announced reductions to their workforces recently. // http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-4 &! http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling &! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/why-oil-prices-went-down-so-far-so-fast.html &! bit.ly/1COGvMx 35k jobs will be lost in 5 years &! the contrast of the working poor vs Millionaires - bit.ly/1yHz9tr &! bit.ly/1Gue1O6 "but the party is not over yet" bc this will pass too (OPEC's move/price war and global economy expectations 2015) &! 7k job cuts at Schlumberger bit.ly/158SetV &! bit.ly/1sXXs74
North  Sea  Oil  and  Gas  oilprice  price  UK  Aberdeen  global  economy  2015  general  election  2015  OPEC  shalegas  fracking  shale  tarsand  sands  political  theory  political  science  foreign  relations  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  Middle  East 
january 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ Breakingviews: Fracking foreign policy - YouTube
Aug. 28 - Rob Cox and Christopher Swann discuss how hydraulic fracturing in America may alter the country's approach to the Middle East.
Politics  energy  security  Syria  economic  history  foreign  policy  Libya  foreignaffairs  middle-east  geopolitics  history  USA  OPEC  energy  dependency  petrodollar  petrodollars  fracking 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Electric Company Of Saudi Arabia Warns Country May Run Out Of Oil By 2030 | zero hedge
Sometimes we wish the oil minister of former OPEC member Saudi Arabia ("we can supply any amount of oil"), Wikileaks ("Saudi Said To Have Overstated Crude Oil Reserves By 300 Billion Barrels or 40%"), and now Saudi Arabia's very own electricity company would coordinate their story.

The electricity company of Saudi Arabia has set off alarms to warn that oil in this country could be depleted by 2030 if left unchecked domestic consumption. According to a report of this company, it is estimated between 2.5 and 3.4 million barrels a day.
The report, published in the magazine Al Mashka of the company itself says that the increase in domestic consumption of oil is one of the main challenges facing the country, mainly because oil accounts for 80% of national income.
Abdel Salam al-Yamani, head of the Saudi Electricity Company also warned of the consequences for citizens to ignore the calls to save electricity and water, and has advised that they depend more on solar energy.
peakoil  saudiarabia  2011  OPEC 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Neue Schtzung: Irak wird zur drittgrten lmacht der Welt - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Diese Nachricht könnte für Nachbarschaftsstreit sorgen: Der Irak hat neuesten Schätzungen zufolge größere Ölvorräte als Iran. Der irakische Energieminister Hussein Scharistani sagte am Montag in Bagdad, sein Land verfüge über Vorkommen von 143,1 Milliarden Barrel Öl - rund ein Viertel mehr als bislang bekannt. Die Erdölreserven Irans werden auf 137 Milliarden Barrel geschätzt. Ein Barrel enthält 159 Liter.

Stimmen die Daten, ist der Irak die drittgrößte Ölmacht der Welt. Nur Saudi-Arabien und Venezuela haben größere Vorräte. So verfügt Saudi-Arabien laut der Statistik der Organisation der Erdöl exportierenden Länder ( OPEC) über Vorkommen von 264,5 Milliarden Barrel, Venezuela über 211,1 Milliarden Barrel.
oil  Iraq  Iran  OPEC  2010  USA  war 
october 2010 by asterisk2a

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