asterisk2a + m3   31

Alan Greenspan on Brexit, U.S. Economy, and Inflation (Full Interview) - YouTube
UK out of Euro Currency but part of free trade single market was best option on table. // lack of leadership for political union and fiscal union aka ever closer union. not just currency and trade union (free trade). // GET AT THE ROOT ISSUE; productivity, ageing population (entitlement crisis), stagnant wages, secular stagnation = desperate population // European banks some still burdened by sov debt crisis/NPL (= zombie banks) & NIRP & QE & lack of uptake in business & consumer loans. // no back-up to the ECB (balance sheet) yet. what happens if the EURO stops being a hard currency? get Greece out, is a liability. // EU can not go on in Status Quo indefinitely. ie funding southern states. States have to get on course of economic harmony! everyone has to give up something! // Precariat/Squeezed Middle Class/Social Mobility = creates desperate people. // Entitlements are a legal issues. Productivity and Growth Rates can't fund entitlements. = There will be a crisis. // Career Politicians won't touch it. // History (look at M2) this environment ends up in inflation. not time or data.
European  Union  Brexit  fiscal  Political  Union  ECB  Alan  Greenspan  Fed  Yanis  Varoufakis  Janet  Yellen  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  secular  stagnation  productivity  gap  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  ageing  population  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  GFC  entitlement  spending  Abenomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  pension  obligation  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  immigration  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  Germany  Angela  Merkel  BOE  Mark  Carney  rising  middleclass  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  populism  demagogue  demagogy  Donald  Trump  western  world  savings  rate  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  triple-lock  pension  pension  fund  pension  scheme  democracy  Career  Politicians  politician  output  gap  M2  inflation  targeting  M3  commodity  prices  global  economy 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
FLUCTUATIONS IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ONLY ONE CAUSE
The financial crisis of 2006/7 turned into a recession prolonged by a failure to manage monetary demand efficiently to achieve target inflation. With the failure of Lehman Bros interbank markets froze and banks stopped commercial lending. Since then a mixture of quantitative easing and distortingly low interest rates has only managed to create the illusion of a boom as bubbles have developed in property and other asset prices.
GFC  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  M3  liquidity  trap  credit  growth  money  creation  process  money  supply  secular  stagnation  aggregate  demand  austerity  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  western  world  UK  USA 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
NiallFerguson  Niall  Ferguson  Margaret  Thatcher  economic  history  political  economy  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  book  Adam  Smith  adamsmith  austerity  ideology  dogma  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  USA  UK  China  history  social  contract  social  cohesion  social  tension  socialism  capitalism  crony  capitalism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  hayek  reflate  reflation  Fed  ECB  BOJ  BOE  Makers  BIS  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  business  confidence  Taper  2015  secular  stagnation  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  economic  growth  global  trade  global  economy  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  liquidity  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  fiscal  stimulus  aggregate  demand  marginal  propensity  to  consume  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  Richard  Koo  private  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  developed  world  western  world  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Developing  Frontier  Markets  inflation  inflation  business  targetin 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's IPO of the Century - Bloomberg View
The privatization couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an early Abenomics cheerleader, said this week that he's "really, really worried" about Tokyo’s chances of ending a two-decade slump. The hope is that the listing, which will be targeted at individual Japanese, will encourage households to invest more of their savings. Perhaps more important, it could enliven the country's stagnant banking sector. Japan is among the developed world's most overbanked nations, with more than 100 sleepy regional players (84 of which are publicly traded) servicing 126 million people. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policies, profit margins are shrinking even faster than the population.
Abenomics  Japan  economic  history  2015  neoliberalism  neoliberal  TPP  Privatisation  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  corporate  governance  culture  society  demographic  bubble  competitive  competition  competitiveness  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  deflation  Yen  BOJ  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  White  Elephants  asset  allocation  R&D  STEM  industrial  policy  China  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  M3 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - YouTube
too big to bail, thus stick it to the countries individually. // Draghi Put - LTRO, LTRO 2, ELA, what ever it takes, TLTRO, // 5trn (40% of EU GDP) put into banks since the crisis (as of 2013). // NPL (via stress test) - 1.22trn in NPL in EU banking system as of 2013. // TINA - there is no alternative (same with UK budget2015) - bbc.in/1N3hrdu &! Angela Merkel "Alternativlos" // bailed out the assets (income for banks via mortgages, loans, businesses loans and credit lines, insurance policies, 401ks, pension fund contributions) of the top 20-30% of the income distribution. austerity is put on the bottom 70-20% of the income distribution. a bailout not just of the banks, the system, but also the top 20-30%, the Super Rich, 1%, the Establishment, the Privileged, the babyboomers, the pensioners. ... and add QE, you really reflate/bail out the 1% ... 10% ... 20%, their pensions, investments, and so forth. // this was and still is a Class specific Put Option for those with assets!
Mark  Blyth  austerity  bailout  book  GFC  ECB  toobigtofail  TBTF  bank  bailout  too  big  to  bail  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  financial  repression  economic  history  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism  European  Union  Troika  Eurogroup  NPL  reflate  reflation  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  complexity  oversight  investment  banking  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  financial  literacy  financial  market  financial  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  MarioDraghi  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  European  Commission  European  Parliament  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  lenderoflastresort  Germany  banking  EuroFin  IMF  OECD  academia  academics  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  spin  doctor  PR  manufactured  consent  propaganda  Lügenpresse  populism  corporate  media  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  budget2015  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  No  bubble  asset  bubble  R 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Bernanke Caught In It? | Zero Hedge
"The real concern for investors, and individuals, is the actual economy. We are likely experiencing more than just a 'soft patch' currently despite the mainstream analysts' rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get themselves out of the 'liquidity trap' they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process. As we said recently this is the same question that Japan is trying to figure out as well." >> Tim Geithner once said in an agressive clear tone on that question 'the US is not Japan.'
monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  deflation  BOJ  Structural  Impediments  lostdecade  QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  lostgeneration  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  imbalance  austerity  ZIRP  USA  timgeithner  deleveraging  long-term  unemployment  deflationary  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Politik der niedrigen Zinsen: Nordstaaten verhinderten Zinssenkung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Geldpolitiker der Nordländer in der EU beharren auf ihrer Linie: Gemeinsam verhinderten Bundesbank-Präsident Weidmann und seine Kollegen nach SPIEGEL-Informationen eine weitere Leitzinssenkung der EZB. [...] Doch sieben Ratsmitglieder, vor allem aus den Nordstaaten, argumentierten heftig dagegen. Darunter waren nicht nur der deutsche Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann und der Niederländer Klaas Knot, sondern auch das deutsche Mitglied des geschäftsführenden Direktoriums, Jörg Asmussen.
QE  NIRP  JörgAsmussen  Europe  creditcrunch  M3  Bundesbank  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann  negative  real  interest  rate  banking  crisis  ECB  bank  crisis  creditcrisis 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Relax, central banks can still save us - Telegraph
Military demobilisation allowed an instant cut in the US budget deficit. Today the rot is structural, a failure to stop health care and ageing costs spiralling out of control.

The eurozone obviously needs looser money. M3 broad money is stagnant and real M1 deposits have turned negative, even in Germany and Holland. Real M1 is contracting at an alarming pace in Italy. EMU growth has wilted, five countries are spinning towards default, and the banking system is seizing up. This cries out for a change of course, yet the European Central Bank is still tightening.
USA  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balancesheet  recession  greatrecession  GFC  depression  history  paulkrugman  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  monetary  policy  supply  M1  M3  velocity  money  creditcrunch  error  folly  benbernanke  trichet  2011  August  JacksonHole  lesson  greatdepression  fiscal  austerity  europe  UK  presidency  barackobama  davidcameron  angelamerkel  sarkozy  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy money supply plunge flashes red warning signals - Telegraph
M1 in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line."What is disturbing is that the numbers in the core eurozone have started to deteriorate sharply as well. Central banks normally back-pedal or reverse policy when M1 starts to fall, so it is amazing that the European Central Bank went ahead with a rate rise this month," Mr Ward said.

"We expect the crisis to continue deteriorating, and threaten to undermine the entire euro area as European policy-makers still misunderstand market dynamics. They show no sign of catching up with reality," 
= wrong policy response, policy mistake
moneysupply  italy  france  2011  recovery  greatrecession  M1  M3  ECB  economics  economy  politics  EFSF  ESM  bailout  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  policy  mistake  wrong  decision 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
European Loan Growth Accelerated in February on Stronger Economy - Bloomberg
Loans to the private sector rose 2.6 percent from a year earlier after rising an annual 2.4 percent in January, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt said today. The rate of growth in M3 money supply, which the ECB uses as a gauge of future inflation, was 2 percent, the highest since August 2009.
M3  inflation  loan  growth  europe  2011  ECB 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
YouTube - Taylor Says Fed Should Begin Discussing `Exit Strategy'
money growth M3
- short term big stimulus - with only small long-term effect
markets are forward looking, pricing in already in a rate increase in UK and EU
- accommodative policy -- leaking -- first signs of inflationary effect abroad
- 70s - Fed behind the curve
- it is hard to get in-front of inflation without unsettling growth
QE  QE-2.0  Fed  unemployment  2011  exitstrategy  benbernanke  economics  quantitative-easing  BOJ  USA  Japan  M3  monetary  policy  lesson  inflation  commodities  bubble 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Bob Janjuah: "We Are Trapped In Some Sort Of Horrendous Keynesian/Monetarists' Nightmare...." | zero hedge
Kevin's work also made clear that one 5%+ GDP data point, driven by inventory, was certain - he thgt it would be Q3 09 but it ended up being in Q4. However, we both have felt and feel that the prvte sector is in the middle of a long multi-yr period of balance sheet repair, and that the questions re sustainable real 'growth' could/can only be answered once we strip out and/or see the abatement/absence of UNSUSTAINABLE government largesse/bailouts/handouts etc. To us, once you strip away the policymaker and his period of peak effectiveness, where we are now much closer to the end rather than the beginning, what is left to take grwth forward is not very much at all.

I refer of course to the key themes Sovereign Creditworthiness; and The Great Battle between Voluntary Austerity & Deflation, vs Involuntary Austerity, Inflation/Stagflation, Serial Bailouts, Debt & Debasement.

MV = PY / EMU M3 was -.3% y/y in 09, means that even with +M, V was negative. It is a balance sheet recession.
Keynesianism  monetization  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  private  public  debt  sovereign  austerity  default  globalisation  economics  M3  moneysupply  macroeconomics  greatrecession  UK  history  Japan  argentina  Greece  PIIGS  EMU  Europe  USA  BRIC  China  brasil  emergingmarkets  paulvolcker  competitive  competitiveness  Germany  Finland  euro  reflection  double-dip  reflate  developing-world  may  2010 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Bernanke Faces Disinflation as CPI Growth Slows - Bloomberg
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge -- the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy -- rose at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace since records began in 1959, according to an April 30 Commerce Department report.

The employment malaise is depressing wages. The unit cost of labor, or ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity, fell at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010, according to the Labor Department. That followed declines of 7.6 percent in the third quarter of 2009, the steepest in more than 60 years, and 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter. With labor costs falling, firms can maintain profit margins without increasing prices.
A falling inflation rate also increases real interest rates, effectively tightening monetary policy, he said.
deflation  inflation  usa  unemployment  2010  may  greatrecession  recovery  Fed  benbernanke  moneysupply  M3  M2  interestrate 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
The Greek people are being punished for Europe's errors - Telegraph
As for blaming Greece, let us remember that the European Central Bank stoked property booms in much the same way as the Greenspan Fed. It let the growth rate of M3 money balloon to 12.3pc by late 2007, against a 4.5pc target, pouring petrol on the fire in Club Med, Ireland, and Eastern Europe. Greece can perhaps claim its entry terms into the euro were violated by the ECB. Yet the Greeks are being singled out for punishment under the rescue terms. Mr Johnson says they will have to transfer 8pc to 9pc of GDP each year to foreign creditors from 2012 onwards.
No nation will tolerate such debt servitude for long.

This crisis stems from the original sin of EMU and the collective self-deception that lured debtors and creditors alike into excess. To lecture Greece gets us nowhere. Default will happen one way or another. So will contagion.
ECB  fed  bubble  M3  monetary  policy  greece  bailout  EMU  europe  germany  history  euro  2010  politics  angelamerkel 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
The Delicate Art of Unauthorized Innovation - Michael Schrage - Harvard Business Review
Is that bad? Yes. Innovative organizations need to be innovative about how they innovate. The innovation and entrepreneurship literature — popular and academic alike — overflows with stories detailing the importance of informal economies in enterprise development. But since too many C-level executives and not a few investors consider "informal" a euphemism for "inefficient," squeezing out perceived slack has become a managerial priority. The not-unreasonable view from the top is that it's smarter to make our formal processes better and more efficient than depend on informal initiatives we can't quite see or control.
internal  innovation  entrepreneurship  culture  management  business  creativity  Google  Amazon  M3  HP 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Chandler: Policy makers are repeating the mistakes of the 1930s - Credit Writedowns
Greece Spain Portugal Italy Ireland France
.
Ironically, the effect of the bond vigilantes and the social resistance may be similar insofar as the economic impact is negative. Ultimately what is at stake is the how the costs (broadly understood) of the bailouts and stimulus are going to be distributed, not just in terms of classes, but also sectors, industries and countries.
.
socialised Recession? Not really.
Bnks are in good shape (relativly speaking).
But the world economies are hurting even more than before.
GreatRecession  2010  M3  usa  europe  recession  recovery  comment  opinion  GreatDepression  history  lesson  sovereign  debt  Greece  credit  demand  keynes  Spain  Portugal  Italy  Ireland  France  Keynesianism 
february 2010 by asterisk2a

related tags

Abenomics  ABS  Abstieg  abundance  academia  academics  account  Adam  adamsmith  AfD  ageing  aggregate  AIIB  Alan  allocation  Amazon  Angela  angelamerkel  argentina  Asia  asset  assets  August  austerity  aversion  avoidance  Baby  babyboomers  bail  bailout  balance  balancesheet  bank  banking  banks  barackobama  behavioral  benbernanke  big  BIS  Blyth  BOE  BOJ  bond  book  Boomers  borderless  brasil  Brexit  BRIC  bubble  bubbles  budget  budget2015  Bundesbank  business  Cameron  capitalism  Career  Carney  cash  centralbank  centralbanks  Chartered  child  china  class  coefficient  cohesion  comment  Commission  commodities  commodity  communication  competition  competitive  competitiveness  complexity  confidence  consent  consequences  Conservative  Constitutional  consume  consumer  contract  corporate  corporations  correction  cost  Court  creation  creativity  credit  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  crisis  crony  culture  currency  currency-war  current  cycle  damage  David  davidcameron  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  decade  decision  default  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demagogue  demagogy  demand  democracy  demographic  deposit  depression  deregulation  derivatives  devaluation  developed  Developing  developing-world  discretionary  disposable  distortion  distribution  distrust  doctor  dogma  Donald  double-dip  Draghi  easing  ECB  economic  economics  economy  EFSF  ELA  Election  Elephants  emerging  emergingmarkets  EMU  energy  entitlement  entrepreneurship  equity  error  escape  ESM  Establishment  euro  EuroFin  Eurogroup  europe  European  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  europeanunion  evasion  excess  exitstrategy  expectation  exposure  exuberance  fairness  faultlines  fed  Ferguson  fiat  financial  Finland  fiscal  flat  flow  folly  for  forward  fractional  france  FrancoisHollande  Frontier  fund  FX  gap  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  George  GeorgeOsborne  German  germany  GFC  Gini  global  globalisation  globalization  Google  governance  Great  greatdepression  greatrecession  greece  Greenspan  GroKo  growth  guidance  hayek  headwinds  history  hot-money  household  HP  HSBC  hubris  hunt  ideology  imbalance  imbalances  IMF  immigration  Impediments  income  industrial  inequality  inflation  infrastructure  innovation  Integrationspolitik  interbank  interest  interestrate  internal  investment  Ireland  irrational  italy  JacksonHole  Janet  Japan  Jens  JGB  JohnMaynardKeynes  JörgAsmussen  keynes  Keynesianism  Koo  Labour  lenderoflastresort  lending  lesson  leverage  levy  liberal  liquidity  liquidity-trap  literacy  loan  London  long-term  lost  lostdecade  lostgeneration  LTRO  Lügenpresse  M1  M2  M3  macroeconomic  macroeconomics  Makers  management  manufactured  Margaret  margin  marginal  MarioDraghi  Mark  market  Markets  Marktwirtschaft  may  mechanism  media  Merkel  microeconomic  middle  middleclass  mistake  mobility  model  modern  monetary  monetisation  monetization  money  moneysupply  mortgage  negative  neoliberal  neoliberalism  New  Niall  NiallFerguson  NIRP  No  Normal  NPD  NPL  obligation  OECD  of  Oil  OMT  OPEC  opinion  Osborne  output  output-gap  overcapacity  oversight  Pact  panic  Parliament  Party  paulkrugman  paulvolcker  PBOC  pension  petrodollar  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  Piketty  policy  political  politician  Politicians  politics  poor  population  populism  Portugal  poverty  PR  Precariat  presidency  price  prices  private  Privatisation  Privileged  process  productive  productivity  propaganda  propensity  property  public  Put  QE  QE-2.0  QT  quantitative  quantitative-easing  R&D  rate  real  recession  Rechtsruck  recovery  reflate  reflation  reflection  reform  refugee  regulation  regulators  Representation  repression  reserve  reserves  Richard  richardkoo  rising  risk  RMB  sarkozy  savings  scheme  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  secular  self-regulation  servitude  shadow  sheet  short-term  short-termism  Smith  SNP  social  socialism  society  sovereign  sovereignty  Soziale  Sozialer  Sozialpolitik  Spain  speculation  speculative  spending  spin  squeezed  stagnation  Standard  state  STEM  stimulus  structural  student  Super  supply  system  Taper  targeting  tax  TBTF  tension  Thatcher  theory  thinking  Thomas  timgeithner  TLTRO  to  Toff  too  toobigtofail  Tories  TPP  trade  trading  transmission  trap  trichet  trickle-down  triple-lock  Troika  Trump  trust  trustagent  UK  UKIP  uncertainty  unconventional  underinvestment  underwater  unemployment  unintended  union  unknown  unkown  usa  USD  VAR  Varoufakis  velocity  view  wage  Weidmann  welfare  western  Westminster  White  Wolfgang  working  world  wrong  Yanis  Yellen  Yen  yield  youth  Yuan  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: