asterisk2a + koo   165

(112) Renegade Inc. & What to expect in 2018 - YouTube
UK BOE QE trap - the road to normalisation - without counter engagement (productive investment), and further Austerity, tax evasion, inequality, income gap, secular stagnarion, less money to spend for the average joe === very bumpy uncertain ride. ... and add Brexit even more uncertainty. OUCH. real growth for real people not gonna happen. // see also RAWerden Richard Andreas Werner for bank reform (local non-profit et al) // also consumers will hold back. especially w trickle down of bad news. job losses here and there retail inflation wage growth etc. creating a impression of a malaise especially for the 50% who voted remain. and 30% who didnt go vote. // see also news 8or7 out of 10 workers broke/permanently skinned - and consumer debt at 2008 high //
BOE  QE  trap  Richard  Koo  UK  Austerity  productive  investment  underinvestment  productivity  Brexit  Steve  Keen  book  RAWerner  debt  bubble  asset  alternative  WallStreet  GDP  output  gap  uncertainty  2018  business  consumer  confidence  fiscal  policy  NHS  monetary  Carillion  PFI  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  malaise  secular  stagnation  stagflation 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Yes this really is the end of Tory austerity – because it was never about economics in the first place | The Independent
[private sector will pick up the tap - the households did, but not corporations! bc long-term ROI growth in not attractive in the west w secular stagnation! see Richard Koo ] But it was a very long time coming. It became clear within a year of George Osborne’s 2010 “emergency budget”, which forced through huge cuts in capital budgets and an intense squeeze on Whitehall departments and welfare spending, that the austerity medicine was hurting, not helping.

The economy was flatlining, teetering on the verge of recession. Whether this was primarily due to the crisis in the neighbouring eurozone and a spike in global oil prices or because the negative knock-on impact of the government’s domestic spending cuts was bigger than initially thought is still debated by economists.
Austerity  Brexit  GE2017  Confidence  Fairy  GFC  bank  bailout  welfare  state  living  standard  deficit  debt  government  household  personal  loan  credit  card  creditcard  underinvestment  inequality  economic  history  social  mobility  income  growth  wage  disposable  discretionary  spending  gini  coefficient  tax  evasion  avoidance  taxation  corporate  taxcut  capital  labour  Productivity  output  gap  recovery  secular  stagnation  infrastructure  investment  Privatisation  Theresa  May  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  asset  reflation  housing  distortion  malinvestment  stimulus  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  RichardKoo  Koo  Richard 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed
Given that both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal have covered the impossibility of pension funds achieving their expected returns, this reality cannot be a surprise to anyone in a leadership role. [...] Here's problem #1 in a nutshell: the average public pension fund still expects to earn an average annual return of 7.69%, year after year, decade after decade.

This is roughly triple the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) yield on a 30-year Treasury bond (about 2.65%). The only way any fund manager can earn 7.7% or more in a low-yield environment is to make extremely high risk bets that consistently pay off. //&! Millennials are first gen to have earned less in their 20's than previous gens. - bit.ly/2a9M98K
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"
[NEED FOR CHANGE OF WIND - deflationary pressures ] Europe is another story. Germany must let their southern neighbors cheat on deficits and bank recapitalizations. “Spanish election showed if you let them cheat and growth surprises positively then extremists don’t do so well. Europe can only survive as an inflation zone. Will it be formally tolerated? Probably not. Will governments cheat anyway with ECB support?” Probably.
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
A hard truth for Leave voters: Brexit means big government
Britain has seen a renaissance in jobs since 2013, of that there is no doubt. But most of those extra jobs were among the self-employed or fell into categories that can only be described as insecure and low-paid. When companies finally took the plunge and advertised full-time jobs from 2014 onwards, around a third went to migrants. [...] It is this mostly older group of workers across the developed world, worried about their pay, pensions and conditions of employment, that want to slam the brakes on globalisation and reject the remedy proposed by big business: greater labour-market flexibility and only limited job protections. [ Globalisation as a great rebalancing of the world economy between the west and the rest (BRIC and co) ] [...] Only government can provide the cure, with a commitment to invest where the private sector cannot or will not go.
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Andrew Mazzone Interviews James K. Galbraith
banks like property! more likely to lend to finance property than SME/SMB investment. because that investment is not propped up by the government. [...] min 6 subprime & credit bubble since 80's << behaviour of lenders [...] sensible people were given fraudulent debt instruments (no self-regulation, and regulators failed). [...] no prosecution because people who should have prosecuted those, didn't want to ruin their private future career. [...] min 15 - inequality and unemployment driven by inequality. [...] austerity is name of the game by the "establishment" - 20% of society that benefited from the bank bailout and reflation policy by central banks - [...] 19:15 - who do banks want to borrow in this environment?! austerity, aggregate demand shortfall, lack of confidence, volatility, uncertainty, credit bubble pain (liquidity trap) etc. [...] Solution ("an alternative way to the status quo, who made this mess): Fix Income Distribution thus Purchasing Power (aggregate demand, ie minimum wage), and restructure finance away from investment banking and speculation and derivatives towards real economy (ie tax heavily what is not real economy business) //&! James K. Galbraith on "Inequality and Instability: What's Ahead for the World Economy" - youtu.be/Mw4Bd9ols-E //&! James K. Galbraith - "The End of Normal" - youtu.be/PGFcB65l8Io
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth explains the U.K.'s decision to leave the E.U. - YouTube
Yanis Varoufakis & Mark Blyth - https://youtu.be/iMk6aVsl8Rs - Scotland (joining the EU) will not have a welfare state as long as Wolfgang Schaeuble is at the helm), Secular Stagnation = feels like permanent recession. especially w austerity. squeezed middle class, working poor, Precariat. [...] the only thing that is keeping things alive and somewhat steady is monetary policy (ZIRP, NIRP, QE) & triple-lock pensions (ie in UK). [...] Status Quo is extend and pretend (ie in EU) [...] Centrists lost the plot, all under 50% of vote share. some places just 25% (ie Tories 2015). [...] [min 20 #Brexit] [...] EU and ASIA running trade surplus against the world. "be more competitive" = exporting deflation. is not same as productivity. [...] Q&A session: you can not reform a country (structural reforms) under dark cloud of debt deflation. no shared dream of prosperity. //&! youtu.be/md6_WfF9Ky0?t=22m
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann - Brexit is no excuse to loosen EU budget rules
Reuters report that this puts Weidmann at odds with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has called for Europe's "Stability and Growth Pact" to be boosted for more growth.
-
So, we've got a politician wanting to spend more.
And the head of the Buba saying "No!"

Same old :-D //&! http://news.forexlive.com/!/germany-will-stick-to-balanced-budget-report-20160701
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Stocks are up. But it appears to us that the U.S. economy is going down. Go figure.
velocity is at 57yr low - WOW! the money that is in circulation is in less hands! the econ expanded according to GDP, but less and less $ reach on avg each hand. - "This is serious. The velocity of money tracks how often each dollar is used to buy something in the economy. Falling velocity shows that consumers and business are pulling back… becoming more reluctant to spend and invest… downsizing… and holding onto dollars rather than spending them. This has a similar effect as reducing the supply of money bidding for goods and services. Prices drop. Deflation, in other words. The bubble has developed a leak. The hot air is gushing out." //&! bit.ly/1MOxc9A //&! research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V &! pieria.co.uk/articles/getting_things_wrong_federal_reserve_style - it is associated with stagnant NGDP [...] demand problem.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Revolutionary politics in the UK
// yanis is liberal marxist // &! Will John McDonnell's fiscal rules work for Labour? Paul Mason Vs John Rentoul - youtu.be/0EISho5eSUc - OBR econometrics dictated by Treasury, George Osborne w wonky multipliers that don't fit w IMF models. IMF calls for fiscal stimulus! since late 2015 because China's credit bubble popped and global economy started to head south.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF urges more spending to boost growth
Fund’s steering committee calls for more forceful stimulus and warns monetary policy alone is not enough //&! http://www.theguardian.com/business/imf //&! bit.ly/1V9pfhD - IMF chief: regulators long 'alarmed' over Panama's handling of taxation. Christine Lagarde responds to Panama Papers revelations, noting that authorities were concerned but did not take ‘expected’ action.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Tory party’s civil war | FT Comment
[ we are all in this together ] Lionel Barber, FT editor, and Janan Ganesh, political commentator, discuss the turmoil within the UK’s Conservative party, including the resignation of a cabinet minister following the government’s Budget. //&! Cameron’s Panama profits - https://youtu.be/jOm-24n16ik - skill full worded statements, No 10 was under lock-down.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Piketty: EU should welcome one million immigrants a year
"The European Union has the capacity to absorb a large flow of migrants, one million per year in terms of inflow net of outflow," he said.
"This is exactly what we had between 2000 and 2010 and this was working in the sense that unemployment was being reduced.
"The problem is - with the austerity policies and with the recession - now we are in a situation where it's very difficult in particular with southern Europe, with the terrible economic situation that we have created there in particular." [...] The population of the EU has only risen by 0.2% a year since 1995, he argues, compared to 1.2% for the world's population over the same period.
According to Eurostat, the official statistical arm of the European Commission, a total of 3.4 million people came to the EU during 2013. Some 2.8 million left, leaving a net immigration figure of around 600,000. [S]low growth [...] exacerbated not just by a lack of immigration but also by austerity policies aimed at reducing public expenditure. [EU in recession 2011 forward]
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Questions raised over £10bn Chinese deal
The investment and infrastructure company said the deal paved the way for "significant investment" in areas such as clean energy, transport and affordable housing in Scotland.
Ppposition politicians questioned why MSPs were not told about the agreement before the Scottish Parliament was dissolved ahead of the election on 5 May, and called for full details to be published.
'Open for business'
Speaking publicly about the agreement for the first time on Sunday, Ms Sturgeon said: "What we have done is sign a memorandum of understanding that commits us to explore possible investment.
UK  David  Cameron  FDI  foreign  direct  investment  George  Osborne  austerity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Scotland  Fiscal  Framework  Scotland  Bill  Westminster  Nicola  Sturgeon  Holyrood  China  underinvestment  public  asset  HS2  Richard  Koo  recovery  economic  history  foreign  affairs  Hegemony  geopolitics 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Public Investment Payoff Not Necessarily About Efficiency
electrification of public rail - reduce emissions and improve public health (health hazard of diesel train engines proven - for passengers and residents). also improve public health - people ditching their cars! // 8:40 each additional public capital investment might be less valuable after the first road to the sea port. but that does not factor in types and public health and safety. road vs train. diesel train vs electric train. slow train vs faster electric magnetic safe low maintenance train w auto pilot (augmented intelligence). less public health risks, less health hazard, more public safety = less economic damage through a less sicker population (health care cost, health care demand, less work hours lost, higher productivity - healthy, happy people) but micro and macro economists do not put this into their GDP - well being, happiness, public health. // beijings hazardous hair will prove to be hughe economic cost (public health) down the road (chronic pulmonary conditions and cancer = lower productivity, lower discretionary spending because of spending goes to medicine and medical care and down the road leads to old age poverty for some if not the family).
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Four key numbers - BBC Newsnight
weaker outlook for income tax receipts & economy/global economy >> OBR has done 'no projections' on impact of Brexit: Robert Chote - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/A0jvIUKTU1U //&! Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/L0TBTbfNgCw - "WE HAD THE BIGGEST BANK BAILOUT" //&! NICKY MORGAN ON TORY WELFARE ROW - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/IC_Yhggk62o
Budget2016  OBR  secular  stagnation  income  tax  receipts  productivity  gap  recovery  economic  history  Richard  Koo  Brexit  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  general  election  2020  austerity  underinvestment  business  confidence  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  working  poor  tax  credit  Zero  Hour  Contract  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  self-employment  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  recovery  economic  history  UK  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  bank  bailout  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  Richard  Koo  Privatisation  free  market  demographic  bubble  poverty  child  poverty  food  poverty  ESA  Disabled  vulnerable  DLA  PIP  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  sanctions  JSA  social  housing  affordable  housing  Crisis  property  bubble  welfare  state  welfare  reform  Universal  housing  benefit  social  safety  net 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne: A profile of the man behind the Budget - BBC Newsnight
// 70% of UK economy growth (GDP), 2015, was consumption. // and trade deficit/current account deficit for 2015, biggest ever on record ---- The UK's current account deficit widened to a record high in the final quarter of last year.
The deficit in the three months to December was £32.7bn, the equivalent of 7% of GDP, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
For all of 2015, it came to £96.2bn or 5.2% of GDP. Both figures were the highest since records began in 1948.
A current account deficit means the value of imports of goods, services and investment income exceeds exports.[...] "An obvious potential trigger for the markets losing confidence in the UK economy could be a vote to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum." [ harder to finance w weak Sterling and higher interest rates, rating agencies hinted at the case of a downgrade of UK's credit worthieness ] - bbc.in/1ZMEvAg
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016 shows Osborne's failure on debt, surplus, GDP
// higher in-work poverty
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight
turning a banking crisis into a budget deficit blowout and blaming it on poor working age people with some benefits to their name. //&! What will it be the Budget be remembered for? DEBATE - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/iOrhLL-Pe3E - productivity is about increasing public and private investment, and private investment has been falling year after year. tax cuts ie corporate tax rate, do not increase private investment. and household debt/consumer debt/credit car/car loan/student debt is rising and rising, taking up the slack that Osborne is cutting from the budget.
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Iain Duncan Smith resigns: Why? What next? - BBC Newsnight
youtu.be/e2XyYgkYNFE - Resignation stuck a knife into George Osborne. // working age on the bottom of the pile bore the burden of austerity. [...] weakness of labour party could mean Conservative will be in power for a long time. [...] this is big shot of Tory-out vs Tory-in. They wanted Osborne to fail. // tax credits, Google Tax Deal, ESA, PIP/DLA, .... //&! Iain Duncan Smith First interview since his shock resignation - youtu.be/hr5-WbzevyM &! youtu.be/ntKf3HtVNxs - lower gov income (income tax receipts and corp tax) pushed things ahead. No 10 ran DWP ... // Marr Show papers: IDS's resignation and budget shambles (20 Mar 16) - youtu.be/ZkNOxXZW9Kw //&! Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/L0TBTbfNgCw //&! Iain Duncan Smith Resignation Nothing To Do With EU - youtu.be/MJr2WmVtV1c &! youtu.be/_nAHvGZYkfY &! youtu.be/kvmOPZ0wP3o &! youtu.be/Hu_pnQBITPI
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Hey Britain – Your Kids Have Just Been Privatised
"Thatcher said the problem with socialism is that you run out of other people money. Henry VIII will tell you the problem with crony capitalism is you eventually run out of other people’s assets to sell." [...] In George Osborne’s mercurial March 2016 budget he showed his own Machiavellian sleight of hand. He is now seen as a politician whose leadership ambitions come before the welfare of the British people. Osborne’s allegiance is to The City not the country. When he and Peter Mandelson holidayed on financier Nat Rothschild’s yacht do you think they talked about free school meals and increasing the economic opportunities of the people in Grimsby? [...] Look at his actions and we see that one of Osborne’s aims is to reinstate the class divisions that began to ebb away with socially progressive policies. This last budget sought to weave a line into the fabric of society between the haves and have-nots. [...] We are at the end of the debt cycle and there’s nowhere else to go. [...] This is not the budget for the next generation of young people. This is the budget for the next generation of rent-seekers, moneymen and crony capitalists.
education  policy  Privatisation  UK  budget2016  Michael  Gove  Nicky  Morgan  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  PISA  Iain  Duncan  Smith  DWP  Gini  coefficient  deprivation  poverty  trap  austerity  Council  income  tax  receipts  secular  stagnation  child  poverty  food  poverty  social  mobility  income  mobility  PR  Positioning  spin  doctor  neoliberal  neoliberalism  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  property  bubble  Tony  Blair  constituency  babyboomers  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  Generationengerechtigkeit  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  fairness  rentier  rent-seeking  Ofsted  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  profit  maximization 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
The Privatising Industry in Europe
Do you wonder why the 'Troika' persists in its privatisation agenda despite the evidence of its failures and the growing economic and social costs?
The report “The Privatising Industry in Europe”, written by Sol Trumbo Vila and Matthijs Peters for the Transnational Institute, TNI, suggests two possible motives and shows who the ‪#‎BigWinners‬ of those privatisations are. - https://www.tni.org/en/publication/the-privatising-industry-in-europe - The rationale put forward by advocates of privatisation does not stand up to the evidence. Privatisation has failed to provide promised revenue as only profitable firms are being sold and consistently at undervalued prices. Meanwhile the latest research by the IMF and by European universities show that there is no evidence that the privatised firms are more efficient than state-owned firms. [...] Privatisation in Europe has encouraged a growth in corruption,
Privatisation  austerity  Troika  neoliberal  neoliberalism  trickle-down  economics  oligarchy  plutocracy  1%  Super  Rich  shareholder  capitalism  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Wall  Street  Main  Street  budget  deficit  Richard  Koo  exploitation  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Yanis  Varoufakis  IMF  World  Bank  economic  history  dogma  ideology  Royal  Mail  white-collar  crime  white-collar  fraud  corruption  bribery  nepotism  Schwarze  Kassen  Schwarzkasse  Chicago  School  free  market  self-regulation 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
How damaged is George Osborne by IDS resignation?
George Osborne: chief tactician and patron, a man whose word makes or wrecks careers.
That was the view of many Tory MPs for a very long time.
Now, many doubt he will ever be their leader, or even the chancellor much longer.
It's not that they think David Cameron is poised to sack him or that he's about to resign, as Labour demand.
They simply believe a swift leadership election is highly likely whatever the result of 23 June's EU referendum. If it does come that soon there will be, one predicts, a "genocide of the Cameroons and Osbornites".
A stubbornly enduring deficit, a tax credit U-turn, and the sheer numbers of MPs who have chosen to back a leave vote at the referendum have seen Osborne's authority leak.
A weekend of melodrama has - in one Tory MP's view - burst the dam.
George  Osborne  budget2016  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  Brexit  austerity  Boris  Johnson  Westminster  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  secular  stagnation  dogma  ideology  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  economic  history  budget  deficit 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Pensions stance creates budgetary mayhem
Disability benefits: they are forecast to increase by £2bn over the next five years. Could do something there. Sickness benefits: they are predicted to rise by about £1bn. Might be able to save some of that. But what's this? It's rising by £15bn over the coming five years. That's the one. Off our Martian goes to see the chancellor. "What are pensions?" she asks. That is the problem the government is struggling with. Its political refusal to touch pensions, or pensioner benefits, has in a stroke protected the single biggest cost in the welfare budget. And the cost that is rising the most. [ AND ADD INTO THE SAME BUCKET THE NHS and PUBLIC HEALTH BUDGET! ] Welcome to your new job, Stephen Crabb.
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Stephen Crabb: 'No further plans' for welfare cuts
BIG BREAKDOWN W INFOGRAPHIC OF THE BUDGET and DWP Budget // A Downing Street spokesman said the government would still deliver on its commitment to save £12bn from welfare by the end of the Parliament in 2020. [...] The Conservative leadership has been under fire - including from some of its own backbenchers - over the cuts to disability payments, which came at the same time as tax cuts for higher earners.
Mr Duncan Smith - who resigned on Friday - said this flew in the face of Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne's oft-repeated claim that "we are all in this together". [...] [ CAMERON ] "None of this would be possible if it wasn't for the actions of this government and the work of the chancellor in turning our economy around." //&! No more welfare cuts, for now - bbc.in/1pGxCV4 - still 2015 budget post-election had £12bn in the card!
budget2016  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Stephen  Crabb  PIP  DLA  tax  free  income  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  income  tax  receipts  budget2015  ESA  House  of  Lords  Disabled  vulnerable  tax  credit  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  working  poor  Precariat  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  child  poverty  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  education  policy  Nicky  Morgan 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith QUITS Cabinet with vicious swipe at George Osborne over shambolic disability benefit cut U-turn Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3499499/Work-Pensions-Secretary-Iain-Duncan-Smith-QUITS-Cabin
[ we are all in this together ] [IDS PIP cuts] 'not defensible' alongside the tax breaks for the wealthy in this week's Budget. [...] He branded slash in benefits for the disabled as being 'indefensible.' IDS hit out at Osborne for lack of awareness and for letting the welfare system be 'salami-sliced' [...] 'I am unable to watch passively whilst certain policies are enacted in order to meet the fiscal self-imposed restraints that I believe are more and more perceived as distinctly political rather than in the national economic interest,' he wrote. The former Tory leader and standard-bearer for the Eurosceptic Right of the party admitted he wanted to cut benefits enjoyed by wealthy pensioners, but these plans were blocked by the Chancellor and the Prime Minister. [...] Mr Duncan Smith believed the Chancellor was too sly and devious in the way he went about balancing the nation’s books. [ Osborne wanted also to increase VAT Solar Panels ]
Iain  Duncan  Smith  DWP  PIP  budget2016  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  Brexit  general  election  2020  David  Cameron  Leadership  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  Manifesto  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Jeremy  Hunt  austerity  welfare  reform  welfare  state  social  safety  net  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  Disabled  vulnerable  dogma  ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  tax  credit  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  Richard  Koo  industrial  policy  aggregate  demand  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ESA  JSA  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  DLA  solar  energy  solar  power  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Nicky  Morgan 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of England blames falling pound on Brexit fears
The BoE said disappointing business investment and the weaker outlook for global trade would offset the impact of a cheaper pound and keep inflation in check in the short term before a rise to its 2% target within the next two years.

The Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) also unanimously voted to keep its quantitative easing asset purchase scheme on hold at £375bn in response to a mixed bag of indicators that it said would keep GDP growth on an upward, though subdued path. [...] [ BREXIT EFFECT, sterling down] It may also delay some spending decisions and depress growth in aggregate demand in the near term. Overall, however, the committee judges that the outlook for domestic activity to be little changed from the time of the February inflation report,” the MPC said. [...] [ CARNEY ALSO SUPPORTS FISCAL STIMULUS! ]
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Tax rise risk from George Osborne's 'inflexible' budget target - BBC News
[ sounds great as headline, but economically and historically bullshit ] The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that Mr Osborne's pledge to run a budget surplus "in normal times" from 2019-20 was simple but would require a "precarious balancing act".
The result could be "big tax rises or spending cuts with very little notice", the IFS concluded. [...] "The rule has the merit of simplicity and transparency but is very inflexible and this could come at a cost," the IFS said. [...] "How he responds to any further unpleasant fiscal surprises may, more than anything we have seen so far, come to define his period as chancellor," said Paul Johnson, director of the IFS.
Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  austerity  budget2016  policy  error  policy  folly  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  IFS  George  Osborne  Career  Politicians 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! bit.ly/1TP0XJJ - Volles Risiko &! bit.ly/1P8hncF &! bit.ly/1RCF3Tp &! Market Reaction - bit.ly/1LeOrjo &! bit.ly/1RTBJ95 - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&! bbc.in/225Eexl
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Sovietization of capitalism (E723) - YouTube
BIS 100% of private debt and finance sector larger than 3.9% of economy bad ... and siphoning off talent from more productive fields of work. And finance favours lending to property and land (low productivity). [...] financial products (derivatives) do not help economy. is just a financial product, fee collection. rentier! rent-seeking behaviour! fees fees fees. (JP Morgan, 89% of profits, see interview) [...] QE reflated asset prices/share prices! // In the second half, Max interviews David Graeber about his new book, The Utopia of Rules: On Technology, Stupidity and the Secret Joys of Bureaucracy.
private  debt  consumer  debt  household  debt  BIS  Wall  Street  recovery  zombie  banks  car  loan  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  student  debt  economic  history  GFC  secular  stagnation  UK  City  of  London  USA  investment  banking  retail  banking  BOE  Fed  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  property  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  productivity  output  gap  austerity  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  constituency  Party  Funding  vested  interest  interest  groups  mortgage  market  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subsidies  subsidizing  derivatives  financial  product  rent-seeking  rentier  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  Mark  Carney  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  book  David  Graeber  MervynKing 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Over 80% Of Jobs Added In January Were Minimum Wage Earners | Zero Hedge
most of the jobs that were created, if only on a goalseeked, seasonally adjusted basis, were of the lowest paying, worst possible quality as has been the case for the past 7 years as the BLS desperately seeks to "pad" its political mandate of providing proof in a recovery which however is impossible if it were to tell the truth. //&! https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/48xbro/jobs_report_242000_jobs_added_unemployment_rate/d0njzvb //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-04/past-year-us-added-360000-waiters-and-only-12000-manufacturing-workers &! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-04/president-obama-takes-economic-victory-lap-after-biggest-wage-drop-record
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
David Graeber on a Fair Future Economy - YouTube
13:30 - BOE paper, austerity claims are bogus. the confidence fairy et al //&! The truth is out: money is just an IOU, and the banks are rolling in it David Graeber. The Bank of England's dose of honesty throws the theoretical basis for austerity out the window - bit.ly/1fWKC0s - What this means is that the real limit on the amount of money in circulation is not how much the central bank is willing to lend, but how much government, firms, and ordinary citizens, are willing to borrow. Government spending is the main driver in all this (and the paper does admit, if you read it carefully, that the central bank does fund the government after all). So there's no question of public spending "crowding out" private investment. It's exactly the opposite.
austerity  BOE  David  Graeber  George  Osborne  economic  history  Schuldenbremse  IMF  OECD  G20  recovery  aggregate  demand  IOU  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  system  Fiscal  Pact  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  policy  book  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Iain Duncan Smith: the latest MP to pretend council cuts are not his fault | Public Leaders Network | The Guardian
[ comparing gov budget and council budgets to the liking of a company or household! ] [ Iain Duncan Smith ] My only advice to local council[s] is that if you get the balance right, you should be able to manage this in a way that is not headline news – doing it with better efficiency. It is like any company, [ ... /// ... ] In the case of Enfield, which has had to make savings of £118m since 2010 – 49% in real terms according to a council spokeswoman – Duncan Smith’s proclamations are an affront. [...] Duncan Smith’s ill-informed pontifications, Taylor says, are an exercise in power without responsibility
Richard  Koo  Iain  Duncan  Smith  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Jeremy  Hunt  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  dogma  ideology  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Council  Public  Services  Social  Services  Police  NHS  child  protection  safety  net  welfare  state  economic  history  aggregate  demand  austerity  UK  deprivation 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur: Welthandel erlebt schwächstes Jahr seit Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die schwächelnde Nachfrage aus den Schwellenländern hat 2015 zum schlimmsten Jahr für den Welthandel seit dem Ende der Finanzkrise werden lassen. Die Nachricht schürt wachsende Besorgnis über die Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft.
China  credit  bubble  2015  2016  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  aggregate  demand  recovery  Richard  Koo  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
Europe  European  Union  deflationary  deflation  Fiscal  Pact  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Schuldenbremse  austerity  2016  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  babyboomers  Germany  policy  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  George  Osborne  G20  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King: new financial crisis is 'certain' without reform of banks | Business | The Guardian
The former Bank of England governor says in his new book that imbalances in the global economy makes a crash inevitable [...] GFC was the fault of the financial system, not individual greedy bankers, in his new book, The End Of Alchemy: Money, Banking And The Future Of The Global Economy [...] “Without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain, and the failure ... to tackle the disequilibrium in the world economy makes it likely that it will come sooner rather than later,” Lord King wrote. [...] global central banks were caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” - unable to raise interest rates for fear of stifling the economic recovery, the newspaper reported. [... blame] broken financial system. [...] failure of a system, and the ideas that underpinned it, [...] “Only a fundamental rethink of how we, as a society, organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition //&! dailym.ai/21tPG5y
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  investment  banking  self-regulation  retail  banking  Greed  financial  product  regulation  regulators  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Mark  Carney  macroprudential  policy  property  bubble  austerity  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  economic  history  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  free  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  faultlines  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  China  Brazil  credit  bubble  2016  reflate  reflation  junk  bond  revolving  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  UK  IMF  OECD  credit  card  debt  car  loan  BOE  MervynKing  ECB  Fed  Europe  deflationary  deflation  Gini  coefficient  inequality  MarioDraghi  Taper  QT  bonuses  bonus  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich [...] Ein Beispiel: Wenn das Bruttosozialprodukt eines Landes 10 Milliarden Euro beträgt und um eine Milliarde Euro wächst, dann entspricht das einer Steigerung von zehn Prozent. Wenn das BIP aber 1000 Milliarden Euro beträgt, dann müsste die Wirtschaft schon um 100 Milliarden Euro wachsen, um ein Wachstum von zehn Prozent zu schaffen. Wächst das BIP wie vorher um eine Milliarde Euro, entspricht das nur noch einer Steigerung von 0,1 Prozent. Die Wirtschaft wäre dann sozusagen ausgewachsen. Die alten Zeiten kehren nicht mehr zurück [...] Sollten die Ökonomen recht haben, hätte das für Staat und Sozialsysteme einschneidende Folgen: Die Planung von Bundeshaushalt oder Rentenkasse geht von einem Wachstum irgendwo zwischen ein und zwei Prozent pro Jahr aus. [...] Die Wirtschaft "unabhängiger vom Wachstum gestalten"
G20  George  Osborne  UK  austerity  Europe  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  budget  deficit  economic  history  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  growth  global  economy  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Japan  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  AI  artificial  intelligence  Robotics  self-driving  cars  autonomous  car  structural  unemployment  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  low  pay  low  income  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underinvestment  marginal  cost  competitiveness  energy  policy  energy  price  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  economics  of  abundance  post-capitalism  Larry  Summers  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  democracy  social  democracy  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  free  market  self-regulation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  education  policy  income  inequality  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  USA 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget - BBC News
[ LOL! ] But recent figures showing the UK economy was smaller than expected meant savings must be found in his Budget statement on 17 March, he said. [...] Mr Osborne said he would rather look for extra cuts now than risk breaking his own manifesto commitment to achieve a surplus in the budget by the end of this Parliament. The chancellor did not completely rule out raising taxes in the event of a further slowdown in growth, but said that now was not the time for "significant" tax hikes. [...] I'm absolutely clear we've got to root our country in the principle that we live within our means and that we have economic security." [...] "whole purpose of our economic plan was to have a budget surplus. [...] we got big challenges at home to make the economy more productive even as more people get work. [ because having part of your budget in the property bubble is so productive ] [...] I will do what is required to keep our country safe and secure." [ NOT CHANGING PLANS ie U-TURN ]
UK  secular  stagnation  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  dogma  ideology  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  economists  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  recovery  aggregate  demand  Conservative  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  City  of  London  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  corporate  tax  rate  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  multiplier  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  housing  benefit  income-based  JSA  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  wage  stagnation  stagnation  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  skills  gap  STEM  productivity  output  gap  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  Chicago  School  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  property  bubble  apprenticeships  value  creation  added  value  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  marginal  cost  energy  price  energy  policy  Hinkley  Point  C  nuclear  power  nuclear  waste  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbyin 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
China's vice fin min: Fiscal policy should play a role globally
China's Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao. China recognizes risks facing global economy. China to try to coordinate with G20 on global economy. Fiscal policy should play a role, not just monetary policy.
G20  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  economic  history  IMF  OECD  Richard  Koo  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  recovery  credit  bubble  USA  UK  European  Union  Pact  Schuldenbremse  secular  stagnation  western  world 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Tasting menu: Audio highlights from the February 20th 2016 edition by The Economist
"liberal centrist politicians are not up to the job" always claiming the confidence fairy will show up if they stop what they are doing! "faith in monetary policy is wavering" ... emerging market debt bubble (through hunt for yield, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, credit bubble originating from China) is unwinding and threatening global system stability.
aggregate  demand  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Taper  QT  Fed  distortion  hot-money  austerity  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  western  world  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  Mark  Carney  BOE  property  bubble  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  fairness  recovery  unintended  consequences 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks again as Abenomics is blown off course | World news | The Guardian
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the last quarter of 2015, new figures showed on Monday, dealing a further blow to attempts by the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to lift the country out of stagnation. [...] The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to adopt negative interest rates – a move that was supposed to encourage banks to lend to businesses – has not had the desired effect. //&! On Abenomics ... inflation targeting - bit.ly/1mwrUm7 - & He has barely started to address the structural reforms comprising the “third arrow” of Abenomics: a shrinking and ageing workforce and the urgent need to boost the role of women in the economy.
Japan  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  inflation  targeting  economic  history  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  Richard  Koo  western  world  demographic  bubble  ageing  population 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
UK trade deficit widens further as exports suffer | Business | The Guardian
Nevertheless, the UK’s goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened by £1.9bn to a record high of £125bn in 2015. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “UK exports have clearly struggled in recent months, as they have been hampered by sterling’s overall strength in 2015, particularly against the euro, and moderate global demand. [...] Recent declines in the value of sterling are expected to support exports sales, though the deteriorating global situation could mitigate against an improved exchange rate. [...] “Nonetheless, any progress in reducing the trade deficit is likely to be extremely slow in the near term, leaving the recovery reliant on domestic demand.” [...] [ you can lower your corp tax, but if your country is shitty in business environment ie infrastructure and employee qualifications and immigration ... nobody wants to do business ]
UK  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  tax  reciepts  2015  2016  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  investment  austerity  economic  history  global  economy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  Student  Bubble  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  government  spending  disposable  income  generation  rent  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  property  Housing  Crisis  George  Osborne  competitiveness  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  immigration  migration  Super  Cycle 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
As growth falters, Osborne hopes Mark Carney can keep a lid on interest rates | Business | The Guardian
The chancellor faces lower GDP and lower tax receipts as a result. So it’s vital that consumers’ desire to keep spending isn’t hit by a nasty shock from the Bank [ // Confidence Fairy // ] The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth and the outlook for wages, most likely robbing the exchequer of vital income tax receipts. And without the funds to maintain pensions and health service spending, his critics will gleefully play back the speech from last November during which he declared that Britain was on the road to becoming “the most prosperous and secure of all the major nations of the world”. [...] Yet his words ring hollow when so many of the post-crash problems are still with us, from the burden of high private and public debts to Europe’s rapidly ageing population, which encourage saving over investment, and a reluctance from government and big business to boost capital spending.
George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  Mark  Carney  BOE  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  subprime  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  UK  GDP  output  gap  productivity  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  economic  history  austerity  underinvestment  business  investment  public  investment  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  David  Cameron  nasty  party  Conservative  Tories  short-termism  credit  bubble  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Funding  1%  financial  repression  New  Normal  constituency  babyboomers  oligarchy  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  inequality  plutocracy  Super  Rich  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  income  growth  low  pay  low  income  wage  growth  economic  growth  precarious  work  Precariat  tax  credit  tax  free  income  corporate  tax  rate  minimum  wage  budget2015  Food  Bank  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  western  world  USA  European  Union  ageing  population  CapEx  Capital  Expenditure  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
More Evidence Supporting the House of Debt | House of Debt
Many have argued that we overstate the importance of housing and household debt in explaining the Great Recession and weak recovery. They point to the banking crisis, policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important. The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant for thinking about economic weakness today. In our view, the explanation we provide is the most consistent with the striking difference in consumption across states. // From Comments: Without real median income rising you can’t grow in an economy based on debt expansion
secular  stagnation  consumer  debt  mortgage  market  household  debt  USA  UK  recovery  GFC  credit  card  debt  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  book  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumerist  consumerism  zombie  consumer  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  negative  equity  job  creation  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  job-creation  squeezed  middle  class  Elizabeth  Warren  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  American  Dream  post-racial  America  Joseph  Stiglitz  Thomas  Piketty  Paul  Krugman  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  income  growth  income  inequality  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  austerity  oligarchy  plutocracy  fiscal  stimulus  budget  deficit  corporate  welfare  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  welfare  state  social  safety  net  western  world  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Nobel-Prize Economist Paul Krugman (Audio) by Bloomberg View
// most times conviction is lacking, trapped in the bubble, no non-conformity, too much of a comfortable life. // 28:30! Confidence Fairy >> austerity from 2010! vested interest plays big role! Policy Makers are on the side of credit, on bond holders. bond holders don't like inflationary period! ... Hyperinflation will come any day! // 31:00 econ needs to be reformulated in class rooms to be much broader subject! << see robert shiller interview! ie behaviour, sociology and psychology, irrational behaviour // 44:15 on keynes! was no left wing socialist, he tried to save capitalism! he had world changing analysis! sometimes there can not be enough demand, same with sometimes it is good to have waste vs nothing, pointless ways to spend money can have a positive effect. ie infrastructure investment - repaving roads = less private repair bills! public transportation = less drunk driving accidents. history shows fiscal stimulus gets always too early withdrawn from deficit hawks!
economic  history  GFC  Paul  Krugman  Thomas  Piketty  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  paulkrugman  repo  bankrun  speculative  bubbles  subprime  Generationengerechtigkeit  Policy  Makers  constituency  George  Osborne  austerity  error  folly  credit  bubble  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Japan  Abenomics  fiscal  monetary  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  USA  UK  European  Union  lost  decade  lost  generation  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  book  miltonfriedman  friedmann  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  fiscal  stimulus  GordonBrown  underinvestment  recovery  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  infrastructure  investment  Richardkoo  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  short-termism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  social  democracy  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Christine Lagarde: Housing is key issue for security of UK economy - BBC News
The UK's recent growth, employment progress and deficit reduction have been "strong", the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Underlying economic vulnerabilities, including the supply and demand for housing, have been addressed and steady growth looks set to continue, it said. The IMF's Christine Lagarde said there were still some risks.
UK  Housing  Crisis  property  bubble  generation  rent  speculative  bubbles  Buy  to  macroprudential  policy  fiscal  policy  planning  law  monetary  policy  mortgage  market  austerity  budget  deficit  neoliberalism  IMF  OECD  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  ChristineLagarde  Privatisation  affordable  social  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  minimum  wage  low  income  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  Contractor  recovery  productivity  output  gap  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
SPERI Annual Lecture 2015: 'The Failure of Austerity' by Lord Robert Skidelsky - YouTube
economic history - "state spending inherently unproductive." // borrowing is deferred taxation - David Richardo - Rational expectations. Market economy always tended full employment. // Theory and Facts did not align. Keynes realised it post-war. Private investment is inherently volatile, ie slump conditions. state to offset underinvestment of private sector and match their retreat. getting rid of abnormal unemployment. done through monetary expansion (QE) and put onto state balance sheet available to spend. // Where 2009 forward QE got to banks ... // Paul Krugman - Confidence Fairy. // "Look after employment, and the budget will look after itself." but today it's the bond holders confidence who shapes budgets. // Keynes 'it is the long-term confidence of businesses that shape investment, confidence in state to no let a slump happen again.' but austerity, out of ammo talk, political-, social environment/sentiment & Osborne's '2016 will be tough year' speech were counter-productive.
austerity  economic  history  Robert  Skidelsky  Richard  Koo  David  Ricardo  sovereign  debt  crisis  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitiveness  competitive  public  utility  public  investment  education  policy  public  transportation  Good  infrastructure  investment  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  George  Osborne  trickle-down  economics  tax  code  progressive  taxation  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Pact  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Schuldenbremse  western  world  Paul  Krugman  political  folly  political  theory  political  economy  political  error  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  financial  cycle  Greed  economic  cycle  inflation  expectation  expectations  Super  debt  servitude  GFC  recovery  Conservative  Party  fearmongering  Fear  Career  Politicians  nasty  David  Cameron  PR  spin  doctor 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
deflationary  deflation  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  western  world  Precariat  precarious  work  household  debt  Richard  Koo  GFC  China  recovery  property  bubble  subprime  economic  history  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  NPL  sovereign  debt  crisis  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bank  bailout  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  financial  repression  2016  2015  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiat  money  fiat  currency  trust  distrust  trustagent 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world? | Will Hutton | Opinion | The Guardian
[ so much debt in the system, a rise in interest can not be served as is ] The imminent collapse of the Chinese Ponzi-scheme economy shows that we need to bring control to the international economy. [...] There has always been a tension at the heart of capitalism. Although it is the best wealth-creating mechanism we’ve made, it can’t be left to its own devices. Its self-regulating properties, contrary to the efforts of generations of economists trying to prove otherwise, are weak. [...] Profits as a share of national income in Britain and the US touch all-time highs; wages touch an all-time low as the power of organised labour diminishes and the gig economy of short-term contracts takes hold. The excesses of the rich, digging underground basements to house swimming pools, cinemas and lavish gyms, sit alongside the travails of the new middle-class poor. These are no longer able to secure themselves decent pensions and their gig-economy children defer starting families ...
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
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