asterisk2a + japan   275

(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
(1487) Blaming Russia Goes Deeper Than Hillary Clinton & the Democrats - YouTube
keeping in a permanent state of alarmingness/ "permanent war footing" / readiness preparedness: China South Sea (China) w Japan as Allie. // vs Russia. // Middle East. // Kovalik's new book is "The Plot to Scapegoat Russia: How the CIA and the Deep State Have Conspired to Vilify Russia." --- MANUFACTURING CONSENT - PERCEPTION MANAGEMENT HYPERNORMALISATION
USA  War  Military–industrial  complex  Russia  China  Japan  Middle  East  ISIS  Saudi  Arabia  Yemen  Iraq  Afghanistan  Putin  Syria  Ukraine  Libya  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  BarackObama  book  conflict  humanity  Chomsky  Manufacturing  Consent  Hypernormalisation  NATO  Crimea  Perception  Management  foreignaffairs  foreign  affairs  North  Korea  policy  cyberwar  Cold  2.0  ColdWar  history  west  UN  cyberattack  Nuclear  Arms 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Steve Bannon: 'We're going to war in the South China Sea ... no doubt' | US news | The Guardian
The United States and China will fight a war within the next 10 years over islands in the South China Sea, and “there’s no doubt about that”. At the same time, the US will be in another “major” war in the Middle East.

Those are the views – nine months ago at least – of one of the most powerful men in Donald Trump’s administration, Steve Bannon, the former head of far-right news website Breitbart who is now chief strategist at the White House.
Middle  East  Syria  Iraq  Afghanistan  Iran  South  China  Sea  Japan  USA  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  Military–industrial  complex  Steve  Bannon  foreignaffairs  foreign  policy  trade  deal  Protectionism  Nationalism  Patriotism  far-right  right-wing  affairs  United  Nations  Russia 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed
Given that both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal have covered the impossibility of pension funds achieving their expected returns, this reality cannot be a surprise to anyone in a leadership role. [...] Here's problem #1 in a nutshell: the average public pension fund still expects to earn an average annual return of 7.69%, year after year, decade after decade.

This is roughly triple the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) yield on a 30-year Treasury bond (about 2.65%). The only way any fund manager can earn 7.7% or more in a low-yield environment is to make extremely high risk bets that consistently pay off. //&! Millennials are first gen to have earned less in their 20's than previous gens. - bit.ly/2a9M98K
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  hunt  for  yield  life  insurance  insurance  industry  monetary  policy  Helicopter  Money  monetary  theory  bond  bubble  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  economic  history  recovery  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  western  world  Japan  BOJ  pension  fund  Beton  Gold  Betongold  property  bubble  asset  allocation  funds  allocation  asset  bubble  Pensioner  pension  scheme  secular  stagnation  austerity  deflation  deflationary  Confidence  Fairy  IMF  OECD  credit  boom  credit  bubble  New  Normal  Great  Moderation  economic  harm  economic  damage  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  distortion 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"
[NEED FOR CHANGE OF WIND - deflationary pressures ] Europe is another story. Germany must let their southern neighbors cheat on deficits and bank recapitalizations. “Spanish election showed if you let them cheat and growth surprises positively then extremists don’t do so well. Europe can only survive as an inflation zone. Will it be formally tolerated? Probably not. Will governments cheat anyway with ECB support?” Probably.
Deutsche  Bank  Italy  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Germany  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Jens  Weidmann  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  zombie  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  Helicopter  Money  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  policy  monetary  theory  deflation  deflationary  Brexit  European  Bank  Supervision  BaFin  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  right-wing  far  right  far-right  Front  National  AfD  UKIP  Centrist  recovery  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  globalisation  globalization  Paul  Mason  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  poverty  poverty  trap  social  mobility  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  wage  pressure  income  growth  GFC  economic  history  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  debt  overhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  western  world  secular  stagnation  non-performing  loan  bail-in  bailout  recapitalization  recapitalisation  UK  Japan 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Japan's Chance to Resist a Turn to the Right - Bloomberg View
[!From Bloomberg!] The country therefore stands at a crossroads; the choices Abe makes have the potential to refashion Japan’s institutions. Essentially, Abe faces a binary choice between making Japan a more liberal country or a more illiberal one.

Around the world, liberalism is in retreat. Buffeted by economic stagnation, recession, controversial immigration and shifts in the geopolitical order, countries from China to those in Europe are slowly opting for fewer personal freedoms, less tolerance of minorities and greater government control over the economy.
Japan  Abenomics  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Saudi Arabia Threatens To Liquidate Its Treasury Holdings If Congress Probes Its Role In Sept 11 Attacks
[...] But the threat is another sign of the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States. [...] "Obama has been lobbying so intently against the bill that some lawmakers and families of Sept. 11 victims are infuriated. In their view, the Obama administration has consistently sided with the kingdom and has thwarted their efforts to learn what they believe to be the truth about the role some Saudi officials played in the terrorist plot." //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-15/one-man-asks-why-was-tritium-found-911-ground-zero
9/11  Saudi  Arabia  gwbush  georgewbush  bush  China  Japan  USA  reserve  currency  USD  Dollar  petrodollar  Middle  East  Taliban  al-Qaeda  al-Qaida  osamabinladen  OPEC  sovereign  wealth  fund  geopolitics  diplomacy  barackobama  foreign  affairs  Intelligence  foreign  relations  War  on  Terror  Pakistan  India  Hegemony  arms  trade  UK 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne: A profile of the man behind the Budget - BBC Newsnight
// 70% of UK economy growth (GDP), 2015, was consumption. // and trade deficit/current account deficit for 2015, biggest ever on record ---- The UK's current account deficit widened to a record high in the final quarter of last year.
The deficit in the three months to December was £32.7bn, the equivalent of 7% of GDP, said the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
For all of 2015, it came to £96.2bn or 5.2% of GDP. Both figures were the highest since records began in 1948.
A current account deficit means the value of imports of goods, services and investment income exceeds exports.[...] "An obvious potential trigger for the markets losing confidence in the UK economy could be a vote to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum." [ harder to finance w weak Sterling and higher interest rates, rating agencies hinted at the case of a downgrade of UK's credit worthieness ] - bbc.in/1ZMEvAg
Budget2016  George  Osborne  Career  Politicians  austerity  economic  history  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  Brexit  HS2  minimum  wage  living  wage  budget  deficit  trade  deficit  secular  stagnation  recovery  Toff  No  Representation  Privileged  Establishment  demographic  bubble  bank  bailout  Positioning  dogma  ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  spin  doctor  PR  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  Student  Loan  Generation  Rent  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Japan  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  growth  of  income  shareholder  capitalism  crony  capitalism  current  account  deficit  GBP  Sterling  business  confidence  global  economy  fault  lines  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur: Welthandel erlebt schwächstes Jahr seit Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die schwächelnde Nachfrage aus den Schwellenländern hat 2015 zum schlimmsten Jahr für den Welthandel seit dem Ende der Finanzkrise werden lassen. Die Nachricht schürt wachsende Besorgnis über die Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft.
China  credit  bubble  2015  2016  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  aggregate  demand  recovery  Richard  Koo  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
Europe  European  Union  deflationary  deflation  Fiscal  Pact  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Schuldenbremse  austerity  2016  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  babyboomers  Germany  policy  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  George  Osborne  G20  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich [...] Ein Beispiel: Wenn das Bruttosozialprodukt eines Landes 10 Milliarden Euro beträgt und um eine Milliarde Euro wächst, dann entspricht das einer Steigerung von zehn Prozent. Wenn das BIP aber 1000 Milliarden Euro beträgt, dann müsste die Wirtschaft schon um 100 Milliarden Euro wachsen, um ein Wachstum von zehn Prozent zu schaffen. Wächst das BIP wie vorher um eine Milliarde Euro, entspricht das nur noch einer Steigerung von 0,1 Prozent. Die Wirtschaft wäre dann sozusagen ausgewachsen. Die alten Zeiten kehren nicht mehr zurück [...] Sollten die Ökonomen recht haben, hätte das für Staat und Sozialsysteme einschneidende Folgen: Die Planung von Bundeshaushalt oder Rentenkasse geht von einem Wachstum irgendwo zwischen ein und zwei Prozent pro Jahr aus. [...] Die Wirtschaft "unabhängiger vom Wachstum gestalten"
G20  George  Osborne  UK  austerity  Europe  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  budget  deficit  economic  history  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  growth  global  economy  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Japan  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  AI  artificial  intelligence  Robotics  self-driving  cars  autonomous  car  structural  unemployment  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  low  pay  low  income  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underinvestment  marginal  cost  competitiveness  energy  policy  energy  price  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  economics  of  abundance  post-capitalism  Larry  Summers  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  democracy  social  democracy  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  free  market  self-regulation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  education  policy  income  inequality  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  USA 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget - BBC News
[ LOL! ] But recent figures showing the UK economy was smaller than expected meant savings must be found in his Budget statement on 17 March, he said. [...] Mr Osborne said he would rather look for extra cuts now than risk breaking his own manifesto commitment to achieve a surplus in the budget by the end of this Parliament. The chancellor did not completely rule out raising taxes in the event of a further slowdown in growth, but said that now was not the time for "significant" tax hikes. [...] I'm absolutely clear we've got to root our country in the principle that we live within our means and that we have economic security." [...] "whole purpose of our economic plan was to have a budget surplus. [...] we got big challenges at home to make the economy more productive even as more people get work. [ because having part of your budget in the property bubble is so productive ] [...] I will do what is required to keep our country safe and secure." [ NOT CHANGING PLANS ie U-TURN ]
UK  secular  stagnation  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  dogma  ideology  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  economists  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  recovery  aggregate  demand  Conservative  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  City  of  London  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  corporate  tax  rate  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  multiplier  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  housing  benefit  income-based  JSA  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  wage  stagnation  stagnation  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  skills  gap  STEM  productivity  output  gap  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  Chicago  School  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  property  bubble  apprenticeships  value  creation  added  value  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  marginal  cost  energy  price  energy  policy  Hinkley  Point  C  nuclear  power  nuclear  waste  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbyin 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks again as Abenomics is blown off course | World news | The Guardian
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4% in the last quarter of 2015, new figures showed on Monday, dealing a further blow to attempts by the prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to lift the country out of stagnation. [...] The Bank of Japan’s recent decision to adopt negative interest rates – a move that was supposed to encourage banks to lend to businesses – has not had the desired effect. //&! On Abenomics ... inflation targeting - bit.ly/1mwrUm7 - & He has barely started to address the structural reforms comprising the “third arrow” of Abenomics: a shrinking and ageing workforce and the urgent need to boost the role of women in the economy.
Japan  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  inflation  targeting  economic  history  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  Richard  Koo  western  world  demographic  bubble  ageing  population 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Flüchtlinge an der Grenze zur Türkei: "Sind wütend auf die ganze Welt" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Tausende Syrer harren an der Grenze zur Türkei aus, seit Russland Aleppo bombardiert. Doch nur Krankenwagen mit Schwerverletzten dürfen passieren. Eine neue Mauer offenbart das Scheitern der Weltpolitik.
Syria  Syrien  Turkey  UN  UNHCR  United  Nations  United  Nations  Security  Council  NATO  Russia  USA  UK  France  Germany  European  Union  Jordan  Lebanon  Israel  refugee  crisis  civil  war  Assad  Aleppo  Iran  Saudi  Arabia  geopolitics  Hegemony  Japan 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Nobel-Prize Economist Paul Krugman (Audio) by Bloomberg View
// most times conviction is lacking, trapped in the bubble, no non-conformity, too much of a comfortable life. // 28:30! Confidence Fairy >> austerity from 2010! vested interest plays big role! Policy Makers are on the side of credit, on bond holders. bond holders don't like inflationary period! ... Hyperinflation will come any day! // 31:00 econ needs to be reformulated in class rooms to be much broader subject! << see robert shiller interview! ie behaviour, sociology and psychology, irrational behaviour // 44:15 on keynes! was no left wing socialist, he tried to save capitalism! he had world changing analysis! sometimes there can not be enough demand, same with sometimes it is good to have waste vs nothing, pointless ways to spend money can have a positive effect. ie infrastructure investment - repaving roads = less private repair bills! public transportation = less drunk driving accidents. history shows fiscal stimulus gets always too early withdrawn from deficit hawks!
economic  history  GFC  Paul  Krugman  Thomas  Piketty  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  paulkrugman  repo  bankrun  speculative  bubbles  subprime  Generationengerechtigkeit  Policy  Makers  constituency  George  Osborne  austerity  error  folly  credit  bubble  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Japan  Abenomics  fiscal  monetary  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  USA  UK  European  Union  lost  decade  lost  generation  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  book  miltonfriedman  friedmann  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  fiscal  stimulus  GordonBrown  underinvestment  recovery  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  infrastructure  investment  Richardkoo  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  short-termism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  social  democracy  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Who will look after Japan's elderly? - BBC News
Japan's demographic problem is a timebomb that has already gone off - more than a quarter of the country's population is aged over 65. This is set to increase to 40% by 2055, when the population is expected to have shrunk from the current 130 million to 90 million. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has warned that Japan will be short of one million nurses and care workers by 2025. // Japan will need 10m immigrants/foreigners in 50 years to cover need.
elderly  care  adult  social  care  demographic  bubble  Japan  OAP  premature  ageing  ageing  population 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
This Is What Janet Yellen Thinks Is The "Worst-Case Scenario" For The U.S. | Zero Hedge
So, unfortunately, a Japan-style deflation remains a relevant worst-case scenario for us going forward. //&! What if Fed (Yellen) doesn't support any more the equity market? Just financial stability, banks (bail-in). No more blowing up credit bubble further. - http://bit.ly/1Oqb822
Janet  Yellen  Japan  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  economic  history  Abenomics  equity  bubble  bail-in  speculative  bubbles  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
credit  bubble  economic  history  BIS  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  working  poor  credit  card  debt  household  debt  property  bubble  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  China  USA  subprime  car  loan  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Student  debt  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Fed  ECB  BOE  Japan  BOJ  Abenomics  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  group  think  think  tank  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Asean's quest to boost free trade - BBC News
bbc.in/1PVZmxC - Asean pushes for regional economic integration &! bbc.in/1Xa9yZt //&! /bit.ly/1PKMhJ7 &! bit.ly/1IbQi1u &! South China Sea is still Asean's Achilles heel - bit.ly/1jgQEgx
ASEAN  free  trade  trade  agreement  global  trade  TPP  TTIP  European  Union  Union  NAFTA  CETA  China  India  Japan  SouthChinaSea  Hegemony  USA  Russia  BRIC  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  Aid  foreign  relations 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
China and the U.S. Are Long-term Enemies - YouTube
//&! speculations that state visit and foreign investment push in UK could create rift between transatlantic relations between USA-UK. UK and Germany after all are part of AIIB. USA not. BRIC are not part of TTIP and TPP. // [A week after Osborne's visit to China with business entourage] China's President Xi Jinping has said he believes his visit will lift UK-China relations to a "new height". - bbc.in/1PwbbvB
Hegemony  China  Russia  NATO  European  Union  USA  G  Zero  SouthChinaSea  Japan  AIIB  TTIP  TPP  TISA  NAFTA  CETA  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  cyber  war  corporate  espionage  industrial  espionage  cyber  espionage  Africa  geopolitics  BRIC  global  trade  UK  Germany  David  Cameron  George  Osborne 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Last Heart Attack by Dr Sanjay Gupta CNN - YouTube
Esselstyn, the worlds leader in heart disease prevention & reversal. // &! youtu.be/SlIBGG8V8P4 // &! nutritionfacts.org ! // &! Apparently end of 2014 it come to light Clinton is off Vegan diet & switched to Paleo?! - "If Bill Clinton and his doctors can't settle on a diet, what hope is there for the rest of us?" - bit.ly/1VTRsql //&! Clinton explained to Rachael that his physician told him that he was not getting enough good quality protein on a vegan diet. As a result, he now regularly eats fish and is particularly fond of salmon. However, he follows a Paleo-style low-carb diet that excludes dairy. [...] Clinton’s physician is Dr. Mark Hyman (got Paleo low-carb book) [...] “It’s hard being a vegan to eat enough good, quality protein and not have too much starch. I know a lot of fat vegans.” [<< anecdotal evidence, are u for real?!] - bit.ly/1F08V7U // &! China Study & Proteinaholic Book! & Forks Over Knives docu!
Vegan  Whole  Plant  Foods  Bill  Clinton  heart  attack  heart  disease  Cardiovascular  disease  coronary  artery  disease  vascular  disease  atherosclerosis  chronic  diseases  sick  population  public  health  policy  public  health  health  care  budget  health  care  spending  health  crisis  Nutrition  fast  food  junk  food  processed  food  food  industry  food  poverty  aneurysm  carnism  omnivore  Meat  Dairy  Egg  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  diabetes  high  blood  pressure  hypertension  coronary  heart  disease  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  chronic  stress  meditation  Yoga  well  being  happiness  index  Western  pattern  diet  Standard  American  dietary  cholesterol  diet  diet  sedentary  lifestyle  lifestyle  lifestyle  medicine  active  lifestyle  revolving  door  USDA  FDA  pharmaceutical  industry  pharma  big  pharma  revolving  interest  groups  vested  interest  Wall  Street  shared  economic  interest  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  stent  Statins  Protein  animal  medical  profession  medical  research  Paleo  China  Study  Japan  Dr.  Robert  Lustig  Dean  Ornish  Dr.  Caldwell  Esselstyn  Dr.  Sanjay  Gupta  Desert  convenience  Sugar  addiction 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's IPO of the Century - Bloomberg View
The privatization couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an early Abenomics cheerleader, said this week that he's "really, really worried" about Tokyo’s chances of ending a two-decade slump. The hope is that the listing, which will be targeted at individual Japanese, will encourage households to invest more of their savings. Perhaps more important, it could enliven the country's stagnant banking sector. Japan is among the developed world's most overbanked nations, with more than 100 sleepy regional players (84 of which are publicly traded) servicing 126 million people. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policies, profit margins are shrinking even faster than the population.
Abenomics  Japan  economic  history  2015  neoliberalism  neoliberal  TPP  Privatisation  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  corporate  governance  culture  society  demographic  bubble  competitive  competition  competitiveness  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  deflation  Yen  BOJ  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  White  Elephants  asset  allocation  R&D  STEM  industrial  policy  China  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  M3 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  lost  generation  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  culture  society  fiscal  stimulus  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  banking  crisis  Exportweltmeister  Germany  subsidies  subsidizing  distortion  asset  bubble  Abenomics  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  fiscal  policy  white  elephants  Richard  Koo  productivity  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  deflationary  deflation  crowding  out  Debt  Super  Cycle  BOJ  Yen  public  investment  productive  investment  stagnation  secular  stagnation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  disinflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Makers  Career  Politicians  savings  rate  savings  glut  policy  error  marginal  propensity  to  consume  poverty  trap  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  inequality  Gini  coefficient  industrial  policy  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  disposable  income  income  distribution  low  income  neoliberalism  neoliberal  part-time  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  JGB  bond  bubble  monetisation  monetization  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  excess  reserves 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Europe Doesn't Have Enough Immigrants - Bloomberg View
These people may not realize that their compassion makes good economic sense, but it does. Xenophobia doesn't.
Japan  economic  history  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Europe  UK  Germany  Fachkräftemangel  education  policy  integration  Leadership  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  European  Union 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Sec. of Defense to Silicon Valley: “There is no limit to what we can achieve together"
Ash Carter announces a new public-private project and delivers a recruitment pitch. [...] a hawkish focus on his goal: to develop stronger private partnerships in Silicon Valley. // [ defence contractor ] // &! Andreessen: Pentagon Wants to Work With Silicon Startups - youtu.be/PTBV4rowPsg &! youtu.be/_lQWIFi0D4k "nation state wars" &! // &! IT Security needs time in stealth before production ready - youtu.be/VY6TUw3J9FY // &! The Takeaway - youtu.be/HlDfMi9Uzqc - attracting talent & repair relations post-Edward Snowden & 'state-subsidies' for Valley firms (defence/defense contracts) // &! youtu.be/C_qeUCU7N1o - rebuilding bridge between SV and Pentagon // youtube.com/watch?v=0dZs9wzQsZI
Pentagon  military–industrial  complex  Surveillance-Industrial  surveillance  state  NSA  FBI  CIA  Orwellian  GCHQ  Five  Eyes  interest  groups  vested  interest  Big  Data  abuse  of  power  technological  progress  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Police  corporate  espionage  cyber  espionage  industrial  espionage  Europe  China  Israel  Russia  Japan  Cold  War  cyber  Drone  Warfare  Drone  Strike  NASA  Department  of  Defense  counter  culture  Silicon  Valley  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Internet  Privacy  Privacy  cyber  attack  cyber  security  Net  Neutrality  IoT  PR  spin  doctor  public  relations  Edward  Snowden  Wikileaks  Whistleblower  Julian  Assange  Career  Politicians  presidency  barackobama  Chelsea  Manning  Defense  Contractor  trust  distrust  trustagent 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth: Austerity - The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
53:00 - EU, UK, USA banking crisis not comparable with Japans eco history. He argues that Japans problems are deeply structural (demographic bubble, culture (savings glut, low propensity of consumption), the state). See book The Evolution of the Modern State & Koos book on Japan 'the holy grail of macroeconomics.' As he explains it, very different 2 EU, UK, USA transfer of banking losses (debt gone sour) onto public gov books via bailout&QE 2 save banking system & the top 30% of society which owns assets. BUT, there is one narrative string that haunts Japan & could haunt EU/UK/USA current living generation; 2 hold back discretionary spending & avoid putting themselves into a debt obligation! This could be underpinned by the Share Economy, econ of abundance, marginal cost & deflation. Minimalism. Anti-consumerism. Not buying a car. Generation Rent not buying a house of flat. Not buying every other year a new TV/Laptop/Phone (despite being commodityish). Who is taking this place?
Mark  Blyth  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  generation  lost  decade  cost  of  ownership  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Angst  Millennials  generationy  babyboomers  economic  history  European  Union  UK  USA  recovery  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Abenomics  structural  imbalance  Impediments  culture 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
austerity  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  downward  mobility  inequality  apathy  voter  turnout  crony  capitalism  ideology  dogma  GFC  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Conservative  Party  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  UK  Europe  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  lost  generation  lost  decade  Japan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  unknown  unkown  Taper  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Thomas  Piketty  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  Eurogroup  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  reflate  recovery  reflation  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  BOE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  short-term  Career  Politicians  political  theory  social  contract  Gesellschaft  No  Representation  Rechtsruck  stagnation  social 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China economy: Weakened foundations by FT Big Read
Facing an economic slowdown with its old tools to stimulate growth losing their power, Beijing finally turned to a weapon it had avoided using for more than two decades. Jamil Anderlini investigates why China’s leaders resorted to devaluation of the renminbi, and the risk of a currency war // hot money also flowed outside into London and NY property market! in search for yield and diversified portfolio by the newly minted paper rich Chinese 1% - 10%. // Slow down hammered already commodity market and energy prices. And now fear of a real hurtful economic slowdown of China - western world panicked. Selling off world wide. and taking money out of neighbouring countries of China and other emerging and developing countries. // PBOC is willing to risk currency war, ie with Japan!?
China  QE  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  economic  history  2015  correction  distortion  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  bubble  bubbles  hot-money  infrastructure  investment  public  investment  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  western  world  globalization  globalisation  global  imbalances  secular  stagnation  developed  world  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  NIRP  Japan  Abenomics  Yen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! bit.ly/1EQ31Fn &! bit.ly/1F1zPue - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
correction  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  emerging  market  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  2015  unknown  unkown  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  China  USA  western  world  secular  stagnation  Developing  developed  world  Europe  UK  Singapore  Asia  global  economy  global  trade  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  economic  history  Taper  Abenomics  Japan  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  Richard  Koo  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  deflationary  deflation  job  creation  job  market  participation  rate  industrial  policy  Makers  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  PBOC  distortion  faultlines  Impediments  STEM  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Paul  Krugman  Larry  Summers  Ben  Bernanke  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  fiscal  stimulus  George  Osborne  dogma  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  ideology 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Amazon's Culture: Toxic or Just Tough? by The Jay & Farhad Show
Hello! This week, Farhad Manjoo (New York Times) and Jay Yarow (Business Insider) are joined by special guest Jodi Kantor (New York Times) to discuss her polarizing article about Amazon's culture. // // how technology functions in the workplace - efficiency, quantified self << the feedback tool you can always use, what ever your state of emotion, gripe, stick, bias, prejudice, ... feudal Darwinism creeps into knowledge worker, white-collar and blue-collar workers, MBA's and PhD's. [...] contributes to gender inequality (women with the back on their wall, leave or get started and forget about family & kids, life.) [...] brutal years are NOT Tour of Duty - Reid Hoffman The Alliance. // PS: Reed Hastings (Netflix) Culture document transpires that it is expected to contribute, even if it doesn't spell it out. Netflix also had to fight and overcome as much as Amazon! Proves again that internal & external environment a company finds itself affects its values & culture inevitable [Thesis].
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Global economy woes spark share falls - BBC News
Fed released minutes from its meeting on 28-29 July, showing that one policymaker was ready to vote for an interest rate rise at the meeting. Overall, the Fed thought conditions for a US rate rise "were approaching", but the economy was not ready yet. Other policymakers remained concerned that inflation would remain weak because of the strong dollar and falling commodity prices, which act as a double depressant on imports. The Fed's key interest rate has been kept near zero since December 2008. There has been speculation that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in September, and last month Fed chair Janet Yellen said she thought a rate rise this year was likely. Following the release of the Fed's minutes, US stocks rallied briefly but then fell back, while the dollar weakened on the currency markets. The Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading down 0.9%. [...] The committee also cited China as a potential problem, [...] [econ growth has 2 be sufficiently strong, incl labour mrkt]
China  Yuan  RMB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  dis-inflation  deflationary  deflation  Fed  PBOC  currency  debasement  devaluation  currency  war  currency-war  Dollar  Japan  Yen  BOJ  Abenomics  economic  history  Taper  2015  recovery  labour  market  participation  rate  unemployment  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  BIS  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  New  Normal  FOMC  commodity  prices  global  trade  global  economy  headwinds 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance - Bloomberg View
[ Politicians as always will react with reactionary unimaginative policy, competing for the same pie. instead of enabling, supporting new pies to be created. ] But Abe needs to recognize, as China already has, that this is only the latest sign of a broader reality: Asia's old export model of economic growth no longer works. [...] All the stimulus BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can muster won't change the worsening trajectory of the region's most-populous nation. That's why Abe needs to take a page from Beijing and focus more on creating new industries at home. [ the base of home grown new market/category/vertical also includes sound middle class to buy those products. demand at home. social safety net (security). and less inequality. progressive taxation. fight tax evasion/avoidance, monopoles, monopsonies, bribery, corruption. and politicians making policy for lobby. ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftslage: Ungebremst in die nächste Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So instabil, wie die Lage ist, bedarf es womöglich nur eines vergleichsweise kleinen Anstoßes, um die nächste Krise auszulösen. Und was passiert dann? [...] Kaum noch Spielräume, nirgends. Weder die Finanzpolitik noch die Zinspolitik kann bei einem erneuten Abschwung viel ausrichten. Das gilt auch für die Schwellenländer: Russland & Brasilien mühen sich, ihre Zahlungsfähigkeit zu sichern. Sogar Saudi-Arabien muss sich im Ausland verschulden. China's [...] Kapitalmarktblase aufgebläht und leidet nun unter einer der höchsten privatwirtschaftlichen Verschuldungsquoten aller Emerging Markets. Die ernsten Schwierigkeiten, vor denen die Volksrepublik steht, zeichnen sich bereits seit Langem ab. [...] Japan ist dann überall. [debt fuelled recovery (fiscal stimulus) that always were. now we have austerity & the "recovery" reflects that. plus deflationary effects; further globalisation, flat borderless world, technology, commoditisation of XYZ, future consumer (growth) not in the west!, etc]
UK  USA  Europe  recovery  2015  Taper  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  austerity  OECD  IMF  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BIS  Japan  China  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  secular  stagnation  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  fiscal  stimulus  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  Oil  price  OPEC  deflationary  deflation  currency  war  currency  debasement  hunt  for  yield  distortion  bank  bailout  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  inflation  expectation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  Developing  Frontier  Markets 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Immigrants Don’t Steal Jobs by Slate's The Gist
high skill immigration adds to economy. low skill adds to economy - if - they are put into higher education and start to add after a handful of years to the economy in a added value job, not service sector job. // Debunking the Myth of the Job-Stealing Immigrant for the New York Times Magazine. // marginal downside effects. no sudden shocks because of migration. // immigration should be supplement to existing ('native') workers. - even low skilled workers are complement, to the skilled worker/economy. // net benefit to federal economy (taxes), net cost to local economy - integrating immigrants.
immigrants  immigration  Asylbewerber  Asylum  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Ausländerfeindlichkeit  2015  demographic  bubble  premature  ageing  ageing  population  Japan  academia  academics  policy  folly  policy  error  integration  Integrationspolitik  Leadership  society  competitive  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  manual  labour  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  capital  skills  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  gap  practical  skill  set  practical  skills  job  market  job  creation  labour  economics  labour  market  social  mobility  income  mobility  vocational  education  professional  education  apprenticeships  Makers  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Gesellschaft  Zivilgesellschaft  flat  world  borderless  globalisation  globalization  industrial  policy  microeconomic  policy  competition  China  economic  history 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Foreign Affairs Expert Leslie Gelb: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View | Free Listening on SoundCloud
Leslie Gelb, wrote Pentagon Papers. Which Ellsberg leaked (Whistleblower) - bit.ly/1Lgsq2D // Back in the days, national interests and force was expressed in war and seldomly in economic embargos (Napoleon tried that against British Empire) and there were economic skirmishes (oil/diesel, rubber) in the run-up to WW2 and the first couple of months before USA officially entered WW2. TODAY! National interests are only expressed in economic terms with trade embargoes, tariffs, trade deals and protectionism. Only little military skirmishes here and there and when, the nation tries to hide them from the publics eye (through rouge nations for hire army/special forces, a nations secret services supplying the underground arms trade that doesn't show up on its balance sheet or one of their nations manufacturers. West excluded Russia from recent G8 summit in Munich and made it G7. Russia/Europe/USA playing game of chicken of economic escalation. Or using corporate actors & new cyber war!
Russia  protectionism  embargo  Iran  nuclear  power  USA  Latin  America  corporate  state  national  interest  Nationalism  Europe  UK  cyber  crime  cyber  war  NSA  GCHQ  Surveillance-Industrial  Complex  surveillance  state  Orwellian  corporate  espionage  industrial  espionage  cyber  espionage  Crimea  Crimea  Crisis  presidency  barackobama  vladimirputin  Putin  China  Asia  Pakistan  Drone  Strike  Drone  Warfare  Africa  history  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  Afghanistan  Irak  Israel  Gaza-Israel  conflict  Germany  Ukraine  Ukrain  Angela  Merkel  Pentagon  CIA  MI6  Japan  SouthChinaSea  South  Korea  military–industrial  military  intervention  IT  Security  collateral  damage  international  relations  Security  False  Flag  on  Terror  ISIS  al-Qaida  book  G7  G8  United  Nations  Security  Council  NATO  OPEC  Oil  price  Saudi  Arabia  Arab  League  Cuba  Vietnam  WMD  smoking  gun  Syria  Syrien 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China devalues yuan currency to three-year low - BBC News
bbc.in/1WfUOFp // The weakening of the currency will also put the US Fed on the spot. In effect China is exporting deflation to the US - and so some will argue that the Fed should find an elegant way to back away from its recent signalling that September will see the first rise in interest rates since the Crash of 2008. Or to put it another way, in terms of US manufacturers and exporters, Beijing has done the monetary tightening that arguably the US economy needs. // &! tcrn.ch/1Tnj89s Apple shares reaction -5%, higher import costs. // &! bbc.in/1TrsssP - rattles the markets. // &! bit.ly/1JdPM8F - Der starke Verlust des Yuan deutete darauf hin, dass China einen Währungskrieg mit dem Westen provoziert. Doch tatsächlich spiegelt der niedrige Kurs die Schwäche der chinesischen Wirtschaft. // &! 3rd day, 3 devaluation move - bit.ly/1Ns1kmu &! Western central banks advised to resist [taper] & 2 prepare 2 ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports - bit.ly/1DLIEy3
China  economic  growth  2015  yuan  currency  war  devaluation  PBOC  Taper  USA  UK  deflationary  deflation  RMB  Japan  Europe  Germany  disinflation  inflation  expectation  dis-inflation  inflation  inflation  targeting  western  world  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Brazil  Australia  commodities  IMF  SDR  Forex  Yen  USD  Euro  British  Pound  recovery  faultlines  global  trade  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  global  imbalances  savings  glut  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  monetary  policy  Oil  price  energy  price 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Royal Dutch Shell cuts 6,500 jobs - BBC News
Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has announced it has shed 6,500 jobs as part of cost-cutting plans as it seeks to counter falling oil prices. // &! bbc.in/1OPYI2I - British Gas owner Centrica cuts 6,000 jobs [...] However, the strong performance at British Gas was offset by a collapse in profits at Centrica's oil and gas production division. Profits in this unit fell 78% to £116m as a result of lower oil prices. [...] Centrica appointed Iain Conn as chief executive at the start of this year. He has been conducting a strategic review of the business over the past five months, which has concluded Centrica should concentrate on the British Gas side of the business and reduce its activities in actual energy production, which takes major investment. That is a less attractive business currently, as raw energy costs, such as oil, are around $50-60 a barrel, half the levels of last year. Centrica said it was assuming the oil price would not move far from that for the foreseeable future.
energy  price  2015  Oil  price  recovery  global  economy  China  secular  stagnation  economic  growth  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  deflationary  deflation  disinflation  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Taper  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  energy  market  renewable  energy  green  energy  energy  security  wind  energy  energy  policy  energy  efficiency  competitive  competitiveness  OPEC  shale  gas  fracking  shalegas  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  debt-fuelled  recovery  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  productive  investment  asset  allocation  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Abenomics: Is It Time to Label the Plan a Failure? - YouTube
QE stops the worst from happening. but it doesn't create the best outcome to happen. // &! white elephants and roads and bridges to nowhere part of wrongly headed short-term view of fiscal stimulus made-up by Career Politicians ... :/
Abenomics  BOJ  economic  history  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiscal  stimulus  demographic  bubble  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  financial  repression  Richard  Koo 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
What Explains the Persistent Lack of Inflation? - YouTube
world is flattening, technology impact, low hanging fruits picked, lack of income growth (lack of disposable income, discretionary spending - squeezed middle class), inequality (Super Rich, 1% and corporations not paying fair share of tax), austerity, austerity (underinvestment, no productive investment for long-term growth), business (underinvestment and no productive investment), low to negative savings rate!, a demographic bubble,
secular  stagnation  western  world  disinflation  deflationary  2015  economic  history  economic  model  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  Lohnzurückhaltung  Niedriglohnsektor  income  growth  squeezed  middle  class  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  complexity  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  western  society  productivity  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  OECD  output  gap  participation  rate  labour  market  labour  economics  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  IMF  recovery  GFC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Super  Rich  1%  crony  capitalism  bailout  inequality  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  trickle-down  economics  economic  damage  macroeconomics  economic  growth  microeconomics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Schuldenbremse  Pact  PIGS  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Yen breakout - YouTube
The yen has broken out of its Y118-120 to the dollar rut and is expected possibly to fall to Y123. The FT’s Leo Lewis explains to Roger Blitz what has triggered this, its impact on the country’s stock market and where this sits with Abenomics. // adding to yen short position. //
Yen  Japan  Abenomics  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  devaluation  currency  war 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Ratingagentur: Fitch straft deutsche Banken ab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
a guarantee on TBTF (implied bailout) in case of problems = market distortion. implied nationalism. distorts also the cost of capital (credit), because you can loan the institute money to a lower interest (%) depite knowing it is riskier, but you do it anyway for the business sake, and you also know that in case the bank/institute goes belly up that it will be bailed out and that, due to preferences, you can get - at a worst case scenario - most of your money back and not lose it all. // "Aufgrund der neuen Bankenabwicklungsrichtlinie der EU geht Fitch davon aus, dass Banken im Krisenfall nicht mehr damit rechnen können, dass sie mit Geld der Steuerzahler gerettet werden. Den neuen Regeln zufolge sollen vor allem die Anleihegläubiger haften." // This is then a competitive advantage for USA Banks in a competition for Fortune 500 business. Followed by UK.
distortion  bailout  crony  capitalism  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  capital  reserves  zombie  banks  Europe  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  economic  history  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  austerity  IMF  World  Bank  USA  UK  Japan  Germany  policy  folly  policy  error  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Washington  presidency  barackobama  financial  market  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Why trade tops the agenda as Abe meets Obama - BBC News
Given all of Japan's economic challenges - struggle to defeat deflation as price increases have fallen back to zero - and low productivity to name a few, would a trade pact really make a huge difference? [...] So why is it the big focus in Abe's visit to Washington? For one, it's a tangible example of a structural reform that is the crucial third arrow of Abenomics - Abe's ambitious reform plans. [...] So a new trade pact that puts Japan at the centre of the world's biggest free trade area certainly has its appeal. [...] The North American Free Trade Agreement was a contentious free trade area linking the US with Canada and Mexico under the last Democratic President Bill Clinton. Free trade has been blamed for the loss of US manufacturing jobs, for instance.
tradedeal  TTIP  Japan  America  Abenomics  CETA  NAFTA  globalisation  globalization  protectionism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  crony  capitalism 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Solving the productivity puzzle - BBC News
UK productivity growth (as measured by output per hour worked) has been exceptionally weak since 2008. Productivity growth has actually been weak across the developed economies since the Great Recession but especially so in the UK. Beyond those facts though, there is little agreement. The talk is instead of a "productivity puzzle": solving that puzzle is the key to both a lower government deficit and to higher living standards. [...] [I]t could be that the nature of Britain's recovery explains the low productivity growth. Rather than lower productivity leading to lower real wages (as companies cannot afford to increase pay), it may be that lower real wages have encouraged firms to hire workers rather than investing in new equipment. This could have lowered productivity. [...] Much of it feels more traditionally "sociological" than "economic". // 2nd Industrial Revolution - Software is Eating the World, Self-Employment, contractors, Zero Hour Contracts, etc. &! bit.ly/1aRi7Bw
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april 2015 by asterisk2a
Why 'secular stagnation' matters - BBC News
The question at stake is the issue of "secular stagnation", which is probably the biggest and most important controversy in macroeconomics today. This is not though a debate for the ivory tower, it's an issue with significant real world implications. [...] So what is secular stagnation? It's an idea that originated in the late 1930s with the US Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen. He worried that growth was fundamentally slowing and emphasised demographic factors (such as slowing population growth) as a driver of this. [ western world needs immigration as reproduction level is below 1, capitalism and our economics is fundy based on econ growth, but that is, on the horizon, not possible (excl inflation). what if population is stable!? ] [...] In a nutshell secular stagnation is an attempt to explain the weakness of the global recovery in advanced economies since the 2008 crisis. [ decelerating, debt overhang, balancesheet recession, sov debt crisis ] [...]
secular  stagnation  Europe  Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  global  imbalances  rebalancing  demographic  bubble  demographics  demography  immigration  western  world  economic  growth  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  stagflation  deflation  deflationary  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  austerity  full  employment  Larry  Summers  Paul  Krugman  Ben  Bernanke  savings  glut  complexity  incomplete  information  productivity  output  gap  productive  investment  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Another economic crash is coming. How did this happen? – video | Comment is free | The Guardian
David Cameron says a second financial crash is imminent. If he's right, it's because the government bailed out the wrong industry, argues Renegade Economist host Ross Ashcroft. He says the last recession was brought on by too much debt. Today private debt is at the greatest level in recorded human history. By ignoring this and instead focusing on the banks, we are heading for economic armageddon. &! &! &! Global debts rise $57tn since crash - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31136707 &! &! &! The Dirty Little Debt Secret - http://youtu.be/0ptn-jCDizo "Richard Vague - author of The Next Economic Disaster - about his insights into private debt and why this seems to be forbidden knowledge."
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february 2015 by asterisk2a
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