asterisk2a + gurley   13

Benchmark’s Venture Capitalist Gurley: ‘Private Valuations Are Fake’ | Re/code
“Unicorns have priced themselves out of the public market,” said Gurley, adding that the valuations are “all on paper. It’s all a myth.” He issued a call for startups to return to business fundamentals. “We need to refocus on building real businesses that are sustainable,” Gurley said. “I personally wish the market would bring them all down so that we could get to a more sane place.”
Unicorn  distortion  Private  Market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  valuation  Bill  Gurley  a16z  Marc  Andreessen 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Gurley on Global Selloff: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/21) - YouTube
'averting catastrophic events' - hard things about hard things - book // when taking on growth round to grow aggressively company (buying customer growth)... you might actually take on risk. especially when the sentiment and the market turns and you burned it all and weren't so good at allocating the money and 'growing' you have to maybe raise a flat/downround ... ooopsies. Or even have to accept a debt round and massive lay-off to get to cash flow even/positive. And run a tight ship with the user base/business you've got. // re: post-price correction after speculative China bubble burst and massive China weakness and still existing/persistent deflationary pressures in western world. // &! bit.ly/1NTc3GM - Public markets affect venture funding. Full stop.
growth  round  IPO  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  Unicorn  Decacorn  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  burn  rate  runway  sentiment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  China  recovery  bubble  reflate  reflation  book  Ben  Horowitz  Marc  Andreessen  business  model  cash  flow  cash-is-king  Start-Up  lesson  financial  model  Start-Up  advice  valuation  Mark  Suster  Wall  Street 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The only stat about unicorns that should worry Silicon Valley
Now theres a new reason 2 fear the ‘corn: They are insanely capital inefficient. And over the last year, they’ve gotten even more so at an alarming rate... // dead Unicorn (their own making) because of burn rate w expensive offices ('we are successful'), developers, aggressive drive ('acquiring market share in a new market') to acquire customers (and not even making the math long term - life time customer value), ... with each round they have 2 be more aggressive, especially with these liquidity preferences inked in, actually keeping the risk level instead of reducing/mitigating the risk. All 2 blow out the IPO & not end up lower on day 1/compared 2 the last growth round. Box couldnt make a higher valuation after day 1 post-IPO than their last growth round via Private Equity. Existing investors got diluted in order to meet last rounds term sheet liquidity preferences/guarantees. // &! Either u risk more, or the other (competition) will, will outspend, overtake u. &! bit.ly/1Ji536P
burn  rate  Unicorn  Decacorn  runway  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Bill  Gurley  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Blue  Ocean  Venture  Capital  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  SPV  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  IPO 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Silicon Valley: 'Centre of the universe' - but for how long? - BBC News
Bill Gurly; there will be a dead unicorn. again, predictions are hard. but pointing out fundy skew is ok. ie cost, and raising lots of money with no business model/revenue stream even in the pipeline ...
Silicon  Valley  irrational  exuberance  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  Bill  Gurley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sacca: Bad Deals Are Being Done in Silicon Valley - Bloomberg Business
min 3 - normal people have been prices out of SV, SF, Palo Alto and around the region. sw engineers with entitelment and very little compassion. // bloom.bg/1I8NCAM &! bloom.bg/1Hzb5za &! bloom.bg/1BaVBji &! bloom.bg/1Fd2zQf (Amazon, Fb, Google, eBay, all had cash flow during its growth past IPO, Twitter ops too expensive compared to scale, living beyond its means. does not need to invest in warehouses (Amazon) nor data centers (Google)) // &! bloom.bg/1e8mFGd &! bloom.bg/1L2Accs &! bloom.bg/1INBZ7N &! bloom.bg/1TgmWqi &! http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/06/03/what-twitter-can-be-2/ &! http://lowercasecapital.com/2015/05/21/i-bleed-aqua/ - Sarah Lacy from pando argues, he bleeds green - pando.com/2015/06/11/the-icahn-was-coming-from-inside-the-house-why-dick-costolos-ouster-changes-the-valley/ &! pando.com/2015/06/12/im-more-similar-to-elon-the-5-silliest-things-chris-sacca-said-yesterday/
Chris  Sacca  Silicon  Valley  ecosystem  Twitter  runway  burn  rate  cash  flow  business  model  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  hunt  for  yield  distortion  growth  round  SPV  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  late-stage  funding  Private  Market  Private  Equity  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  cash-is-king  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  Hype  Cycle  inflation  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  Angel  Investor  war  for  talent 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Be Hurt Most When The Tech Bubble Bursts? Not VCs | TechCrunch
In a nutshell, FOMO is driving many investors in a hustle to be a part of the next Facebook or Twitter and put in huge investments for a fraction of stake. And, they don’t see much risk in it as long as they get the downside protection. [ growth round = rocket fuel splashed onto stuff to acquire more customers and market share (basically, but not always) ] [...] Someday, pretty soon, these will be put to the test, and valuations based on visibility of earnings will matter again. A few will succeed of course, but several others will fall – it remains to be seen how miserably. VCs will most likely walk away with their invested money, if not more. It’s the employees and founders who will see their million-dollar dreams crash and burn. [living beyond ur means & betting dollars you dont have on a time that seems further away than u can even guess (secular stagnation)] [lack of income growth (across the western world) thus disposable income (discretionary spending) is also not helping]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  operations  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  runway  FOMO  Venture  Capital  growth  round  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Market  Private  Equity  SPV  bubble  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  disinflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  western  world  business  model  revenue  revenues  fiscal  policy  income  growth  USA  OECD  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  disposable  income  policy  error  Taper  policy  folly  monetary  policy  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  1%  Super  Rich  on-demand  convenience  Share  Economy  labour  labour  economics  discretionary  spending  Schuldenbremse  PIGS  Brexit  Grexit  currency  war  macroeconomics  Pact  Europe  productivity  Lohnzurückhaltung  job  creation  globalisation  globalization  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  flat  world  borderless  competitive  Future  of  Work  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  economic  history  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  demographic  bubble  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
The New Yorker profiles the boldness and baldness of Marc Andreessen | PandoDaily
See Comment: "He failed upward at best. The way you describe it I think Marc Andreessen is the male Marrisa Mayer. Mayer took control of a bunch of nerds and she made a lot of money for herself. Thats great for Mayer but it does not give her industry credibility." http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/05/18/tomorrows-advance-man
Marc  Andreessen  a16z  Benchmark  Capital  Bill  Gurley  Silicon  Valley  Venture  Capital 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Peter Thiel on why Airbnb should be valued way higher than Uber… and why it’s not | PandoDaily
Rather than explaining how two companies locked in such a battle could possibly justify nearly $2 billion in collected investment and sky high valuations, he made the point that Airbnb in contrast is wildly undervalued at least relative to Uber. Thiel is also an investor in Airbnb– yet another darling of the sharing economy, valued at a “mere” $10 billion compared to Uber’s $18 billion. Unlike Uber and Lyft, Thiel argued, there is no obvious competitor to Airbnb. That in and of itself makes it a more valuable company because of the distraction and profit erosion that he describes throughout his book. So why doesn’t the market reflect that thinking? Thiel gave an amusing answer to that too: VCs like to invest in things they like to use. VCs love getting in black town cars, but they typically stay in five star hotels. Fewer still open up their homes to strangers for extra cash. Uber gets a “yeah! I like this one!” valuation boost.
Peter  Thiel  Venture  Capital  pattern  recognition  pattern  matching  Lyft  Uber  AirBnB  valuation  competition  Fred  Wilson  Bill  Gurley  burn  rate  runway  Silicon  Valley  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Andreessen: High burn rates risk more than just running out of cash | PandoDaily
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable  a16z  Marc  Andreessen  Ben  Horowitz  SF  war  for  talent  labour  economics  labour  market 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Winter Is (Probably) Coming (Soon) | TechCrunch
"The more you boost your burn, the more risk you take on. [...] The underlying point of Gurley’s and Wilson’s respective riffs is that many companies will have to reduce their burn in the future. And it won’t be easy. And the pair likely won’t be willing to give larger sums to companies that just torched their prior round in ways that they didn’t precisely approve of. Cash is the oxygen of business. When it runs out, the company dies." ... being nimble, frugal, Lean, conservative ... via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8338411
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Burn Baby Burn – AVC
From one of the comments: "f you're backing companies that have bootstrapped their start, you get a different, focussed culture & attitude on burn rates and costs. It forces you to think twice about every cost item. You're running as fast as you can to get traction, customers, product, team, everything aligned within tight costs. It's not about frugality but more aligned to reality. " +++ via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8324047 +++ !!! Fancy Offices - bit.ly/1piSnxO +++ !!! +++ "Gurley and Wilson point to sky high burn rates, not valuations as the red flag in Silicon Valley [...] Gurley and Wilson are lamenting the exorbitant burn rates that have become the norm among venture-backed startups and the lack of fear and accountability signaled by this hyper-aggressive approach." - bit.ly/1m93G0M +++ !!! +++ bit.ly/YQY2WS +++ !!! +++ "Which VCs Have the Most Portfolio Companies with $100M+ of Funding?" - bit.ly/1wo7BHF
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation  Fred  Wilson  AVC  bootstrapped  bootstrapping  growth  round  Expenditure  Fab.com  sustainability  sustainable 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Venture Capitalist Sounds Alarm on Silicon Valley Risk - WSJ
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." And then you wrote: "Although we may have not reached the level of observing obvious greediness, there is most certainly an absence of fear. Those that managed companies in 2008, or 13 years ago in 2001, know exactly how fear feels. And this is not it." [...] Right now youve got private companies raising $200, $400, $500 million. If youre in a competitive ecosystem & you raise that amount of money, the only way you use it—because these companies are all human-based, theyre not like building stores—is to take your burn up. [2 things: exorbitant high burn rates like '99 & the allure of working for $ loosing companies. &the justification is 'it's Landgrab time,it's still day 1'] &living cost, employee cost &perk &rent cost in SV/SF &surroundings isnt helping either. rising cost is fuelling burn rates &valuations w/ big ABC-Rounds. Didnt we have the glorification of Lean ~3 years ago? A bubble is one WHEN IT POPS!
Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bubbles  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  Start-Up  lesson  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  living  environment  standard  of  living  Benchmark  Capital  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  distortion  risk  taking  centralbanks  trust  trustagent  confidence  Wall  Street  Taper  discounting  risk  discounted  risk  risk  discount  timing  business  cycle  financial  cycle  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  cash  flow  business  model  monetization  monetisation 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Bill Gurley schools NYU professor: Uber will be 25x bigger than you think | PandoDaily
[ + long tail use cases and cases that seem in retrospect obvious but currently are foggy (ie owning a car in the city for ppl a luxury good), car ownership deemed inefficient/waste of money; when car is used only ~5% during the day and there are clearly cheaper and if not even more convenient options of daily transportation on offer. ] Gurley, who is one of the smartest and most articulate figures in all of venture capital (and who just happens to be an early Uber investor and board member) laid out a more than 4,500-word argument for why Damodaran underestimated the Uber opportunity by no less than a factor of 25. The Benchmark Capital partner was diplomatic, apologetic even, but that made his dismantling of the professor’s reasoning no less thorough.
Blue  Ocean  Uber  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  value  creation  added  value  intangible  value  Proposition  Core  Product  Proposition  Lyft  Travis  Kalanick  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  frictionless  friction  convenience  management  Product/Market  Fit  consumer  aspirational  experience  Product  Design  Vision  leadership  transportation  public  transportation  urbanisation  urban  planning  city  living  long-tail  longtail  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  hypothesis  incomplete  information  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences 
july 2014 by asterisk2a

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