asterisk2a + georgeosborne   80

Masters in Business: Nobel-Prize Economist Paul Krugman (Audio) by Bloomberg View
// most times conviction is lacking, trapped in the bubble, no non-conformity, too much of a comfortable life. // 28:30! Confidence Fairy >> austerity from 2010! vested interest plays big role! Policy Makers are on the side of credit, on bond holders. bond holders don't like inflationary period! ... Hyperinflation will come any day! // 31:00 econ needs to be reformulated in class rooms to be much broader subject! << see robert shiller interview! ie behaviour, sociology and psychology, irrational behaviour // 44:15 on keynes! was no left wing socialist, he tried to save capitalism! he had world changing analysis! sometimes there can not be enough demand, same with sometimes it is good to have waste vs nothing, pointless ways to spend money can have a positive effect. ie infrastructure investment - repaving roads = less private repair bills! public transportation = less drunk driving accidents. history shows fiscal stimulus gets always too early withdrawn from deficit hawks!
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Economist's View: 'The Effect of Payday Lending Restrictions on Liquor Sales'
The practice of short-term consumer financing known as payday lending remains controversial because the theoretical gains in welfare from greater credit access stand in opposition to anecdotal evidence that many borrowers are made worse off. [...] Our regression estimates indicate that the introduction of payday lending restrictions reduced liquor store sales by approximately 3.6% (statistically significant at the 1% level).
poverty  trap  Payday  Loans  DWP  sanctions  JSA  ESA  Iain  Duncan  Smith  GeorgeOsborne  David  Cameron  poverty  food  poverty  child  poverty  Tories  Conservative  Party  austerity  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  structural  unemployment  stigma  propaganda  populism  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  UK  substance  abuse  alcohol  abuse  apathy  sense  of  agency 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England’s 'slack' approach leaves economy at risk - Telegraph
There were 115,000 UK housing completions in 2013, almost a record peacetime low, compared with the 240,000 new homes needed each year just to meet the rise in household numbers hard-wired into our demography. This disgraceful shortage, and the government’s now long-past-its-sell-by-date Help-to-Buy scheme, is the reason prices are up 9.1pc across the UK over the last year and 17.1pc higher in London. And where house price inflation goes, economy-wide inflation eventually follows. While agreeing with Carney’s house-building analysis, I don’t agree the Bank can’t do more to rein in a market now in danger of spiralling out of control. [...] [A] development we’ll live to regret. +++ IMF warns UK government over housing bubble risk --- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27731567 +++ PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS WEAK. << skill-biased technological change, capital skills, skill, skills, knowledge worker, White-collar Worker, Blue-collar Worker, workforce, Mobile Creative, Mobile Creatives,
property  bubble  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney  BOE  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  fiscal  policy  GeorgeOsborne  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  2014  2015  general  election  2015  UK  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  IMF  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  productivity  skill-biased  technological  change  capital  skills  skill  skills  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  workforce  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  globalisation  globalization  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  World  Flat  competitive  advantage  competitive  competitiveness  comparative-advantage  comparative  advantage  Year  of  Code  practical  skill  set  practical  skills 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Election results 2014: Ukip blames London election performance on difficulty appealing to the 'educated and cultured' - UK Politics - UK - The Independent
Election results prove Ukip can damage Labour as well as Tories Both parties need to rethink their campaign strategies if they are to beat back the Farage fox in the Westminster henhouse http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/election-results-prove-ukip-damage-labour-tories-farage || + Ed Miliband NEED TO RAISE HIS GAME! >> What do the council results mean for the 2015 general election? It is not easy to extrapolate from local election results, but these ones could suggest Labour falling just short of a working majority http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/what-council-results-mean-2015-general-election ||| + London is Ukip's worst nightmare The local election results highlight how out-of-step London attitudes pose a serious dilemma for Labour and Tories ""LONDON is metropolitan elite concerned chiefly with itself."" - http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/23/london-ukip-nightmare-labout-tories-local-elections-farage || +++ http://bbc.in/1qZCqn1
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Nigel Farage: UKIP to be serious players at general election
Labour Party gaining ground .... but will it be enough (traction) to replace the coalition of Conservatives/LibDems? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/vote2014 - waiting for further detailed analysis; http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/05/local-elections "Most revealingly for the party’s long-term prospects, UKIP’s triumph in local elections is proof of its growing knack for campaigning on-the-ground and on domestic political issues. For years the party’s success was limited to European elections, where bluster about the EU and a strong broadcast presence was enough. Not any more. The party’s membership has shot up to more than 35,000, meaning it can now seriously compete in first-past-the-post contests." + http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/05/shape-britain "LOSING America is popularly considered to have been one of the things that cost King George III his sanity. David Cameron, by contrast, appears to think that losing Scotland would not even cost him his job."
UKIP  Council  Election  2014  UK  Labour  Party  davidcameron  nickclegg  GeorgeOsborne  Liberal  Democrats  Conservative  Party  general  2015  Scottish  Independence  Career  Politicians  public  policy  fiscal  policy  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  NHS  austerity 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK house prices up 8% in a year, says ONS
UK house prices rose by 8% in the year to the end of March, official figures show, as the prime minister says he will consider changes to Help to Buy. The annual increase slowed compared with a 9.2% year-on-year price rise to the end of February. However, the latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the annual property price increase in London stood at 17%. + http://qz.com/211695/why-house-prices-are-a-problem-for-the-government-not-central-banks/
Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Buy  to  Let  Sheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  mortgage  market  unintended  consequences  property  bubble  Career  Politicians  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  artificial  bottleneck  UK 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK's oil, coal and gas 'gone in five years'
"Britain has just 5.2 years of oil." Aberdeen companies (whole region) got 2 pivot 2 off-shore windfarm tech and maintenance and tidal wave technology [clean tech - clean energy technology]. PLUS there is the decommissioning business, decommissioning of oil and gas platforms. Plus the option of building/solidifying itself as knowledge and skill hub for global oil and gas business - the mobile creative / skill-based worker. Otherwise it could turn sour quiet quickly like the areas where the coal mines and other post-heavy industry locations in the UK were - them being still smudge of economic inactivity on UK's economic landscape and economic history. "Ministers are hoping that enough shale gas - extracted by fracking - will be obtained to make a difference, the BBC's environment analyst Roger Harrabin says." The gas amount from fracking in UK is negligible, not comparable to USA even if accounted 4 landmass size & energy usage/capita. + http://econ.st/1n8oyAZ http://econ.st/1gdiesV
UK  energy  security  energy  policy  industrial  policy  Aberdeen  renewable  energy  clean  tech  clean  energy  technology  Scotland  Scottish  Independence  economic  history  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  public  policy  green  energy  fracking  shalegas  shale  gas  2014  2015  nuclear  power  energy  crunch  brownouts  blackouts  competitiveness  Russian  Reliance  Europe  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  Career  Politicians  accountability  governance  democracy  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  election  campaign  promises  general  election  2015 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - When will the UK pay its way in the world?
In absolute terms it has been impossible for UK debts to fall. >> Now what was a little worrying was that the deficit on the current account reached 5.6% of GDP, or economic output, in the third quarter of 2013 and fell to just a little bit lower, 5.4%, in the fourth quarter. That 5.6% was - ahem - something of a milestone: it was the biggest quarterly deficit since records began in 1955. And it explains why the record aggregate indebtedness of the UK has been falling so slowly, and is still not much below 500% of GDP on the Mckinsey measure (though see my previous blog). [...] UK's - limp trading performance - for YEARS! ... COMPETING against BRICs, Europe, G8, ... now and in the future competing with MINT countries too ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MINT_countries ). [...] "We have not got forever to reconstruct our economy and become a bit more like the European export emperor, Germany."
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
Pfizer and AstraZeneca: Deal or no deal | The Economist
IT'S ALL A MATTER OF DEGREE. Degree of vitality, dynamism, plurality & competition further reduced within the pharmaceutical industry in case of a M&A deal. + http://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/mergers-and-acquisitions/articles/growth-through-merger-and-acquisitions.html "M&A deals intended specifically 2 enable growth fail 2 achieve their expressed growth objective." + http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/52090 /// vs. Internal Growth through start-up/entrepreneurial culture within. --->> once you are a public company, your options to facilitate growth are hugely curtailed do to the short-term thinking of money, crony capitalism >> Wall Street. /// http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AstraZeneca#Pfizer_takeover_bid + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27391124 + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27309851 | BRITISH INTEREST IS & SHOULD BE MARKET PLURALITY. From May 7th. http://bit.ly/QNgGtz - 7 days later http://bit.ly/1k5sGCg | this case; fiduciary responsibility = short-term thinking
market  plurality  Pfizer  AstraZeneca  UK  big  pharma  pharmaceutical  industry  pharma  oligopol  oligopoly  crony  capitalism  corporate  governance  WallStreet  growth  though  acquisition  M&A  mergers  merger  growth  through  merger  Career  Politicians  business  management  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  public  policy  antitrust  Competition  collusion  research  medical  research  public  health  policy  trust  trustagent  confidence  Science  R&D  European  Competition  Commission  Europe  regulators  regulation  governance  transparency  accountability  davidcameron  general  election  2015  GeorgeOsborne  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  interest  groups  national  interest  job  market  productivity  skill-biased  technological  change  skill  skills  capital  skills  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  fiduciary  responsibility  greed  stakeholder  shareholder  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  human  progress  technological  progress  humanity  post-antibiotic  era  external  threats  externalaties  externality 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
British austerity is no model for the rest of the world - FT.com
the pace of fiscal contraction has slowed over the past two years. This means that the brake on growth caused by fiscal policy is becoming more attenuated. So the turnround in growth over the past 18 months is as much evidence against austerity as it is pro-austerity. Second, faced with the potential damage caused by the deficit reduction to demand and economic growth, the UK government has been forced to introduce a number of extraordinary measures to support lending. [...] It certainly should not, however, be seen as any kind of inspiration to other companies or countries. + http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10807988/Rapid-rate-rises-could-throw-UK-back-into-recession.html
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
Amazingly, London’s property boom may still have years to run - Quartz
Housing shortage. ( Supply ) Period. + British unemployment fell to a five-year low - + mortage market may come under pressure when ZIRP ends and the zombie consumer can't server the rising interest payments.
UK  recovery  2014  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  QE  BOE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  ZIRP  Mark  Carney  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  zombie  consumer  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  austerity  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - George Osborne commits to 'fight for full employment'
There are a number of different definitions of full employment: Sir William Beveridge, the architect of the welfare state, thought it should be when 3% of the workforce is unemployed Other economists have spoken of a higher "natural rate" of unemployment, where nobody stays out of work for long, with joblessness fluctuating at between 5% and 6% The lowest recorded level of unemployment was 215,800, or 1%, in July 1955. The most recent figures this year put the unemployment rate at 7.2% of the population Mr Osborne declined to define full employment, but said people between jobs or unable to work or with caring responsibilities would not be included However his goal was to have the highest employment rate in the G7, and as part of his plan he expected those who can work to take the jobs available ... + http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  underemployed  employment  economic  history  academia  economics  UK  public  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  GeorgeOsborne  full  employment  natural  rate  of  unemployment  Politics  Career  Politicians  election  campaign  promises  election2015  recovery  austerity 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Budget 2014: Output gap judging a nation's economy
art and science of economics. problems is, it is more difficult if you don't have a complete picture. (all the information). and then there are the unknown unknowns.
UK  macroeconomics  economics  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  Productivity  recovery  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  budget2014  austerity 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Budget highlights philosophical divide
This philosophical divide between state intervention and individual liberty is one of the biggest pools of clear blue water between the two largest parties. But it has not dominated political debate in the wake of the Budget. + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26666103 + Key points of Budget 2014: At-a-glance: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26626280 :: increase in personal tax allowance to £10,500 + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26645108 + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26563010
UK  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  edmilliband  Labour  Party  Conservative  Party  Career  Politicians  Politics  public  policy  Philosophy  economics  budget2014  budget  taxation  tax  free  income  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Liberal  Democrats  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  inequality  minimum  wage 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
Chris Cook crunches the numbers - Newsnight - YouTube
what if current productivity numbers are - as good as it gets. and the productivity high from 2006-7-8 was hugely inflated by london, super rich, banking and financial services industry!? thus what if we are running currently at full speed possible although it looks (in comparison to 06/07/08 slower) so slow. thus ... austerity needs to go on for much longer to eliminate budget deficit and possibility of inflation and wage inflation spiral is nearer to the horizon than what the BOE (with its ZIRP and QE policy) has it scheduled to arrive and thus then forced to hike rates earlier than though and debt servicing will be more expensive ... for gov and debt holder and mortgage holders.
UK  budget2014  budget  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  recovery  2014  economic  history  academia  academics  output-gap  output  gap  Productivity  unemployment  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  mortgage  market  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Many Britons 'fear mortgage arrears'
Campbell Robb, chief executive of Shelter, which helps a million people a year with housing problems, said that despite recent discussion of an economic recovery, a combination of high housing costs, wage freezes, and rising food and energy bills had created a "nightmare scenario" for many families. He said: "It's a worrying sign of the times that so many are starting the New Year worried about how they'll pay their rent or mortgage in 2014. "Unless they get help, some of the families struggling now could face the very real prospect of losing their home this year."
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january 2014 by asterisk2a
OECD Warns UK Faces Housing Bubble | Zero Hedge
The Great House Price Bubble? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03j0nw1 + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/uk-realtors-ask-central-bank-halt-housing-bubble " Estate agents and surveyors have become so concerned about the dangers of another unsustainable housing boom that their trade body is urging the Bank of England to limit national house price growth to 5 per cent a year. " ... same in Germany's Cities.
property  bubble  UK  demand  and  supply  supply-demand  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Politics  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  2013  policy  folly  policy  error  Germany  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bubble  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  monetary  policy  BOE  ECB 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
David Cameron wirft Guardian Gefährdung der nationalen Sicherheit vor - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Chefredakteure der führenden Zeitungen und Zeitschriften der Welt, darunter "New York Times", "Washington Post", SPIEGEL, "FAZ", "SZ", "Le Monde" und "El País", sprangen daraufhin dem "Guardian" bei. In schriftlichen Stellungnahmen lobten sie die Veröffentlichung der Geheimdienstdokumente von NSA-Whistleblower Edward Snowden als Dienst an der Demokratie.
Wikileaks  Career  Politicians  Politics  Whistleblower  davidcameron  Edward  Snowden  The  Guardian  democracy  NSA  Tempora  domestic  affairs  trust  foreign  policy  Orwellian  State  UK  confidence  GCHQ  foreignaffairs  cablegate  PRISM  Glenn  Greenwald  history  trustagent  surveillance  Toff  GeorgeOsborne 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Fears over 40% fall in part-time students
t examines why part-time students have fallen by 40% in two years, equivalent to a reduction of 105,000. There are concerns that such part-time courses are necessary to provide the skills needed by industry. Sir Eric Thomas, who headed the review, said "something is going wrong". There has been widespread recognition of the economic importance of part-time courses in allowing adults to improve their skills.
skills  student  loan  debt  Career  Politicians  employment  squeezed  middle  class  GFC  complexity  StudentLoans  Higher  Education  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  davidcameron  Bubble  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  economic  history  working  poor  stagflation  squeezed  middle  UK  income  mobility  austerity  middle  class  Part-Time  Students  household  debt  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  Part-Time  Study  Toff  deleveraging  social  mobility  GeorgeOsborne  studentdebt 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
Britische Mittelschicht-Kinder werden ärmer sein als Eltern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Staatliche Förderung erreicht nur die Allerärmsten Dem "Observer" zufolge kommt die Studie zu dem Schluss, dass vor allem die Kinder der unteren Mittelklasse vom materiellen Abstieg bedroht seien. Ihre Eltern seien nicht arm genug, um die Kriterien für eine besondere Förderung durch den Staat zu erfüllen - aber auch nicht wohlhabend genug, um ihren Kindern ein sorgenfreies Leben zu garantieren. [...] Demnach sei es eine Kombination von erheblichen Schulden in Folge hoher Schul- und Studiengebühren, hoher Immobilienpreise und unsicherer Arbeitsverhältnisse. http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/oct/12/middle-class-young-people-future-worse-parents/print
Career  Politicians  employment  unemployment  squeezed  middle  class  Politics  public  policy  Higher  Education  formal  generationy  fiscal  stimulus  consumer  debt  Taxation  davidcameron  Student  Loan  Bubble  generational  change  policy  error  policy  folly  productivity  short-term  thinking  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  working  poor  property  UK  income  mobility  child  poverty  youth  unemployment  Consumerism  austerity  middle  class  zombie  consumer  social  mobility  Toff  millenials  consumerist  GeorgeOsborne  inequality  studentdebt 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
▶ Help to Buy sparks supply and demand fears - YouTube
UK's property market is the most unappetizing one around Europe. Too prizy for shitty weather. Then the prize of mortages are cheap because of ZIRP ... once rate rise in 3-5 years ... people on median income who wouldn't have been able to afford one otherwise can't afford one now - when rate rise. peoples houses get repossessed and gov with the scheme (gov guarantees 15% of the loan) is having to pay part of the bill. George Bush did the same in his first year as President - subprime was the result.
state  guarantee  Repossession  Career  Politicians  2013  incentive  economic  history  demand  and  supply  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  UK  loan-guarantee  political  error  fiscal  stimulus  and  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  davidcameron  political  folly  financial  incentive  guarantees  subsidies  GeorgeOsborne  policy  error  subsidizing  policy  folly 
october 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Bank of England must limit house price booms, says Rics
The Bank said it was being vigilant. - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/uk-realtors-ask-central-bank-halt-housing-bubble // "The Bank of England now has the ability to take the froth out of future housing market booms, without having to resort to interest rate increases," is the way the UK's realtor association explains their demand that the BoE limit national house price growth to 5% a year. While they would benefit from short-term gains, it seems the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) sees the dangers of another unsustainable housing boom outweigh them.
monetary  policy  Politics  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  davidcameron  BOE  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  debtoverhang  QE  NIRP  2013  communication  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  property  bubble  UK  monetisation  bubble  political  error  sovereign  crisis  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  expectation  subsidies  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetization  GeorgeOsborne  subsidizing  balance  sheet  recession 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
▶ Reuters Breakingviews: UK inflation an embarrassment to BoE - YouTube
Mark Carney left CAD with house price bubble Mark Carney ignores house price bubble and impending doom of too much debt when interest rates wise - one or the other way.
unemployment  monetary  policy  Politics  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  davidcameron  EPS  BOE  monetary  system  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  2013  short-term  thinking  Debt  Super  Cycle  stagflation  property  bubble  UK  political  error  bubble  sovereign  crisis  dividends  austerity  WallStreet  zombie  consumer  inflation  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Silly Season news | ForexLive
Put bluntly, we now have a potentially dangerous financial structure which encourages borrowing, and discourages saving. The rush to create growth has thrown to one side any inflation concerns - for now. BUT there will be an election in 2015 – at the latest. Should the forward guidance prove accurate, we will enter the build up to that election with continued low interest rates, rising house prices and a positive growth outlook – fertile ground for a Conservative Party overall majority. HOWEVER, should inflation or employment become at odds with the strategy, Mr Carney may be under a lot of pressure to prove his neutrality by tightening in the run up to that election – and as I know, what is least convenient is likely to happen…. + http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/12/uk-home-buyers-boost-purchases/ - Debt Fueled Recovery.
QE  NIRP  unemployment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Debt  Super  Cycle  property  bubble  stagflation  UK  unintended  consequences  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  ZIRP  austerity  davidcameron  BOE  greatdepression  MPC  zombie  consumer  inflation  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
▶ Lower living standards in Britain: The squeezed middle - YouTube
in details picture of UK is not healthy ... is not even moving into a healthier picture. debt plays still a huge role >> Number of buy-to-let rising http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBrNrv_H9dM >> lack of stable skills jobs is one of the root. and the short-term thinking that debt will be affordable for ever. + >> http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/08/12/uk-home-buyers-boost-purchases/
manufacturing  unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Politics  Mark  Carney  unintended  consequences  davidcameron  squeeze  negative  real  interest  rate  standard  of  living  living  standard  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  Buy-to-Let  NIRP  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  working  poor  property  bubble  UK  ZIRP  austerity  middle  class  zombie  consumer  long-term  unemployment  GeorgeOsborne  wage  stagnation 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Cash in as our desperate government inflates a new housing bubble - MoneyWeekMoneyWeek
So if prices are going up, people think that their situation is improving. Happy families make happy voters – and happy voters vote for the party in power. That’s why a massive mortgage subsidy scheme – Help to Buy – has been thrust upon us. And it seems to be working. Prices and sales are rising. [...] Trouble is, interest rates right now are at or near record lows. So mortgage servicing costs are only likely to rise. Ironically enough, it could be an economic recovery that does the damage: a recovery would result in higher rates, pushing mortgage payments up, and making many loans unaffordable. [...] As long as things look good come May 2015, it will happily ignore any potential collateral damage. And the scheme has had an almost-immediate impact. Formally launched in this year’s budget in April, it has already seen sales of new homes surge. The government now plans to expand it from next year.
state  guarantee  microeconomic  policy  2013  Politics  microeconomics  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  UK  unintended  consequences  loan-guarantee  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  collateral  damage  davidcameron  subsidies  guarantees  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  subsidizing 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
The Impact of Raising the Minimum Wage - YouTube
Tax Credit better than raising minimum wage. UK raised under Osborne the tax free income "tax-free income allowance" http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/mar/19/george-osborne-2013-budget-britain // "In 2010, the median wage in the UK for all jobs was £20,801." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom // >> tax-free allowance should be raise to by 350£ each year to 12.000£
microeconomics  fiscal  policy  tax  credit  working  poor  UK  Gini-coefficient  USA  minimum  wage  barackobama  tax-free  allowance  liberal  conservative  income  inequality  economics  GeorgeOsborne  liberal  economic  reform  presidency  inequality 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Breakingviews: Don't sink the pound, Governor Carney! - YouTube
UK inflation rises less than expected in June, but still jumps to its highest level in over a year. With prices rising faster than wages, the new BoE Governor Mark Carney mustn't push down the pound.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  consumer  squeeze  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  deflation  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  UK  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  greatdepression  sticky  wages  zombie  consumer  wage  inflation  inflation  GeorgeOsborne 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Mark Carney wastes no time in stamping his authority - Telegraph
Osborne fiscal plan of austerity till 2015/16 Rates don't go up beyond 2015 If market rates go up and make it more expensive for gov to borrow during tough times - will do QE - artificially lower the price again. >>> "Carney’s “not warranted” comment was tantamount to saying he expects rates to remain at 0.5pc until at least 2015. The vogue for “communication” is catching. In Australia, the central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, demonstrated how not to do it, after a “joke” backfired earlier this week, crashing the currency until his deputy calmed things down. [...] At the European Central Bank, president Mario Draghi was more successful. In a break with protocol, he said rates would be at current or lower levels “for an extended period of time”, delighting stock markets on the continent as they interpreted it to mean 2016 at the earliest."
currency  debasement  unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  output-gap  foreignexchange  BOE  ECB  benbernanke  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  communication  PIGS  UK  debt  monetisation  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  forward  guidance  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  participation  rate  Taper  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  RBA  GeorgeOsborne  debt  monetization  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Sir Mervyn King issues Help to Buy mortgage warning
The outgoing Bank of England governor warns a government plan to boost the housing market with part-mortgage guarantees has no long-term place. >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_gEzqfRltw - facilitating even more an unequal society. Political Voter Move.
QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  monetary  policy  2013  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  UK  reflation  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  bubble  ZIRP  BOE  greatdepression  deleveraging  MervynKing  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - George Osborne warned by MPs over mortgage guarantee risks
Mr Osborne has said the housing market is still not functioning properly after the 2008 financial crisis, with the number of purchases by first-time buyers down 40% in the past five years. [...] >> haven't they learned anything? subprime and house price bubble created itself by state guarantees introduced by gwbush to push home owner ship. - history doesn't repeat, but rhymes - market prices though information. distortion by brining in more normally ineligible buyers. - Osborne tackling an effect of income stagnation and excessive inflation + zombie consumers and zombie banks. First-time buyers unable to put up deposit. >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/uk-discloses-home-purchase-subsidy-part-its-latest-2013-budget
microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  Mark  Carney  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  liquidity-trap  distortion  davidcameron  BOE  subprime  political  folly  policy  folly  QE  2013  Plan  B  short-term  thinking  microeconomics  disequilibrium  economic  history  gwbush  mortgage  fraud  UK  error  equilibrium  fanniemae  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  USA  housing  bubble  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  MervynKing  subsidies  freddiemac  economics  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  subsidizing 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Consumer spending: Dropping shopping | The Economist
Britain’s squeezed households largely explain the country’s flatlining economy. + That is worrying, since other prices are highly unlikely to stand still. Firms facing higher energy bills tend to pass on cost increases. Another worry is the continued fall in sterling says Mr Kara. The pound has depreciated by close to 6% in 2013 against the currencies of Britain’s main trading partners. When the pound loses value imports become more expensive, cutting buying power.
currency  debasement  debtoverhang  2013  monetary  policy  GFC  consumption  economic  history  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  davidcameron  greatdepression  budget2013  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  public  debt  private  debt  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Budget 2013 at a glance: George Osborne's key points
STATE OF THE ECONOMY :: Forecast growth of 0.6% in 2013, downgraded from 1.2% in December. But Office for Budget Responsibility predicts UK will escape recession this year. Growth predicted to be 1.8% in 2014; 2.3% in 2015; 2.7% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017. BORROWING :: Borrowing of £114bn this year, up from previous £108bn forecast. Borrowing set to fall to £108bn, £97bn and £87bn, £61bn and £42bn in subsequent years. Corporation tax to be cut by 1% to 20% in 2015. Tax avoidance and evasion measures, including agreements with Isle of Man, Guernsey and Jersey, aimed at recouping £3bn in unpaid taxes. - BOE remit to be changed to focus on growth as well as inflation. -
budget  monetary  policy  2013  Mark  Carney  fiscal  policy  stagflation  UK  taxevasion  austerity  davidcameron  BOE  budget2013  greatdepression  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
The IMF on the Austerity Trap - NYTimes.com
liquidity-trap = monetray policy can not buffer economic, fiscal (ie austerity) shock to the extent it did when rates were lowered from initial rate. the margin of monetary stability improvement vs lower rates/QE/negative interest rates becomes less and less to the point of long-term consequences (ie bubbles elsewhere in a global monetary world, as there are multiple equilibria of asset classes that get whacked (distorted) when one or two players in the global multiple fiat currency world take out the atomic bomb and or untested weapons of monetary policy/theory
QE  2013  multiplier-effect  Politics  creditrating  trust  economic  history  multiple  equilibria  UK  confidence  structural  imbalance  trustagent  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  paulkrugman  austerity  global  imbalances  ratingagencies  GeorgeOsborne  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Watchdog contradicts Cameron on impact of austerity on growth
In a speech on the economy on Thursday, the prime minister said the independent watchdog had made it "absolutely clear" that spending cuts and tax rises were not responsible for the weak economy. But the OBR said it had been arguing for years that this was an issue. Labour said it was an "embarrassing rebuke" for the prime minister.
debtoverhang  OBR  2013  Politics  communication  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  UK  stagnation  austerity  davidcameron  greatdepression  deleveraging  GeorgeOsborne  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Banks reduce loans, in spite of Funding for Lending
The number of loans being offered by banks has continued to fall in spite of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). The scheme, which began in August last year, was designed to encourage banks to lend more money, both to individuals and businesses, and boost the economy. But the Bank of England has announced that net lending fell by £2.4bn in the final quarter of last year compared with the previous three months.
monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  zombie  banks  BOE  deflation  2012  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  trust  fiscal  policy  UK  confidence  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  austerity  ZIRP  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  global  imbalances  MervynKing  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Mark Carney named new Bank of England governor
+ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20503377

But Mr Osborne was keen to get his preferred central governor, because Mr Carney was widely perceived to have all the bits: he is admired by monetary economists, regulators and - allegedly - his staff (or to put it another way, he is an unusual economist and central banker, in that he is seen as a half-decent manager).

[...]

So where does the controversy - if any - lie in the Carney pick?

Well, it is yet another promotion for a Goldman Sachs alumnus (the two most important central banks in Europe, the ECB and the Bank of England, will be run by former Goldman managing directors).

- But he has no MIT connection. Just went to Harvard (US) and Oxford (UK).

+ http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-26/blanchflower-to-replace-bernanke

George Gideon Oliver Osbourne, MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Second Lord of the Treasury, takes home the trophy for boldest economic move of this global financial crisis.
GoldmanSachs  2012  GeorgeOsborne  MervynKing  Mark  Carney  BOE 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Mitchell plebgate row shows politicians cannot ignore class
Ask any non-Brit if class matters in this country and they will probably laugh in your face.

To outsiders it is one of the most striking, curious and not entirely attractive features about modern Britain.

We on the other hand remain curiously diffident - and rather dishonest - on the subject.

And yet as the whole Andrew Mitchell "plebgate" saga has shown, class is never far away - particularly when it comes to politics.

What gave the story its edge was not the fact that Mr Mitchell had abused the police, but the fact he allegedly called them plebs - the clear implication being that he thought he was a cut above mere plods.

[...]

Of course what makes class particularly sensitive for this government is the very fact that so many come from comfortably privileged backgrounds.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toff
2012  Toff  Politics  meritocratic  meritocracy  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  austerity  culture  society  UK  class-warfare 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Fitch Warns UK Likelihood It Loses AAA Rating Has Increased | ZeroHedge
The Negative Outlook on the UK rating reflects the very limited fiscal space, at the 'AAA' level, to absorb further adverse economic shocks in light of the UK's elevated debt levels and uncertain growth outlook. Global economic headwinds, including those emanating from the on-going eurozone crisis, have compounded the drag on UK growth from private sector deleveraging and fiscal consolidation as well as from depressed business and consumer confidence, weak investment, and constrained credit growth.

Fitch writes;
- Plan B would lead to downgrade
- if GDP-Debt projection goes up (ie due to continues 0% growth), would lead to downgrade

= UK seems to be in a position where it is sitting in a toy car - and the world, europe, china, Rating agencies is playing
= UK policy makers have very little room if at all, to steer around obstacles.
davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  plan-b  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  NPL  trust  confidence  greatrecession  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  2012  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Fitch  ratingagencies  UK 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Born Bankrupt: State of UK economy, part1/2 (24Aug12) - YouTube
Generational Theft. In-front of our eyes. Decline in-front of our eyes. Decline is subliminal.

Society's Contract, is broken. Society (baby boomers) is also bankrupt ethically and morally. Who are they to say what ought to be dome about the state of 'the system'!?

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQVyBo8HMsc

Book: Jilted Generation, Ed Howker (Author)
history  political  theory  book  generational  contract  generational  change  GeorgeOsborne  nickclegg  davidcameron  2012  moralhazard  moral  ethics  society  demographics  demography  fiscal  policy  policy  folly  policy  error  political  economy  politics  accountability  governance  lostgeneration  lostdecade  babyboomers  GordonBrown  tonyblair  UK  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  greatrecession  GFC 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Fiscal policy: Austerity in theory and in practice | The Economist
In the longer term, infrastructure investment can deliver positive returns to productivity, says a study by the American Congressional Research Service, and this is a generally agreed consensus among academics, economists, and policymakers alike

[...]

Of the 20 economists who signed a letter to the Sunday Times newspaper backing immediate austerity plans in February 2010, nine have retracted their original positions, according to the latest survey by politically left-leaning publication the New Statesman. They call for fiscal stimulus, despite its being ruled out by Chancellor George Osborne, as well as for tax cuts, and a higher level of infrastructure spending. That is receiving attention across the pond. Paul Krugman claims his anti-austerity stance has been vindicated—looking at Britain as an example of how the approach can go wrong when the economy remains weak.
economics  productivity  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  fiscal  stimulus  greatrecession  GFC  plan-b  2012  UK  austerity  infrastructure  infrastructure  investment  stimulus  fiscal  policy 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
No 11 prepares 'for life after Osborne': Hague is tipped for job as UK is given 50% chance of losing gold-plated AAA rating | Mail Online
George Osborne likely to become UK's 'political collateral damage' in face of slumping-along economy - IN ORDER to preserve credibility left in coalition government (Conservatives & LibDems).

If UK would loose its AAA by Moody's in the next 12-18 months, interest payments are unlikely to rise substantially in face of financial repression (ZIRP, NIRP, QE) from central banks and an ongoing great recession.
politicalscience  financial  repression  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ratingagencies  UK  Politics  2012  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  greatrecession  GFC 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Bagehot: Simple pleasures | The Economist
(UK) Both parties have an interest in banker-bashing. That is unfortunate

The government, too, has faced two ways in its dealings with the bankers. Attacking them has a certain electoral appeal—bankers were unpopular long before the posh Italians set about persecuting Shylock—but the bankers have been generous to the Tories. According to the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, in 2010 half of the party’s donations came from the City. More important, the government understands the danger of undermining a sector so important to jobs, growth and tax receipts. So it has dealt gently with the banks in, for instance, watering down somewhat last year’s recommendations by the Independent Commission on Banking about how to tighten regulation.

Gov has announced a parliamentary inquiry into the behaviour of the banks, brushing aside Labour’s demands for a judicial inquiry as an attempt to postpone the post-mortem.
greatrecession  GFC  moral  politicalscience  political  economy  2008  2012  gordonbrown  EdMiliband  EdBalls  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  banking  GeorgeOsborne  nickclegg  davidcameron  politics  UK  Labour  Tories  LIBOR  rigging  scandal 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Labour reluctantly agrees to Parliament probe into banking scandal as MPs vote against call for judge-led inquiry | Mail Online
My Take
> Yes, because Labour government under Gordon Brown, BOE with Mervyn King and Paul Tucker and the FSA as well as other central banks ie NYFed/Fed and regulators turned a blind eye on the issue back in 2007/8/9 because during the Great Financial Crisis, everything was on the table to stabilise financial markets & minimise damage to the economy, trying to save what to save is.
> One has to question the Gov Coalition (Conservatives&LibDems;) for wanting just an inept Parliamentary Inquiry. Preventing collateral damage on own sides? And was Ed Balls playing game of chicken [game theory] 4 demanding a judicial inquiry knowing the Gov would not run with?!
> On the other side the Gov couldn't care less about the outcome as long as 'we' are able to put the LIBOR scandal under the LABOUR years and are able the win the next election. Thus the Gov forgoes the right thing, a judicial inquiry, for political gains.

http://youtu.be/H9i4hv_A_D0 (P1/2)
http://youtu.be/_7V7Jqw6XOY (P2/2)
davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  misconduct  Willful  ignorance  trustagent  trust  Politics  game  theory  AlistairDarling  GFC  gordonbrown  UK  EdBalls  PaulTucker  barclays  LIBOR  EURIBOR 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Diamond lets loose over Libor - FT.com
Mr Diamond quit after the governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn King, and the head of the Financial Services Authority, Lord Turner, in effect called for his departure in late night phone calls on Monday to Marcus Agius, Barclays chairman.

But Barclays soon dragged Paul Tucker, deputy BoE governor, and “senior Whitehall figures” from the previous government into the controversy by publishing a document suggesting they may have known of – and even condoned – the bank’s repeated “lowballing” of its submissions to the rate-setting process during the financial crisis.
The bank released Mr Diamond’s contemporaneous notes of a 2008 conversation – one of only three “notes to file” he has written in his career – in which he wrote that Mr Tucker had passed on concerns from Whitehall about Barclays’ Libor submissions, adding that “it did not always need to be the case that we appeared as high as we have recently”.
AlistairDarling  EdBalls  gordonbrown  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  UK  politics  culture  negligence  misconduct  fraud  creditcrunch  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  FSA  BBA  greatrecession  GFC  BoE  2012  2008  EURIBOR  LIBOR  PaulTucker  barclays  bobdiamond 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Libor scandal: Bob Diamond resigns as Barclays chief executive | Mail Online
Memo from Barclays implies Bank of England knew about Libor-rigging scam

'Bob Diamond did not believe he received an instruction (to fix rates) from Paul Tucker or that he gave an instruction to Jerry del Missier.
'However, Jerry del Missier concluded that an instruction had been passed down from the Bank of England not to keep Libors so high and he therefore passed down a direction to that effect to the submitters.'
The FSA investigated Jerry del Missier but closed the investigation without taking any enforcement action, Barclays added.

***
My Take::
During the hight of the financial crisis 2008; everything seemed to be on the table to stabilise the markets and safe the banks and rebuild confidence.

***

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18688417 (3 July 2012)

Behold, the British establishment, panicked
The chairman resigns to save the CEO. The CEO makes a public threat to drag the central bank into the mire. And the previous government. And the Treasury.
misconduct  negligence  capitalism  corporate  governance  Barcap  2012  2008  lehmanbrothers  AlistairDarling  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  UK  politics  CFTC  SEC  NYFed  Fed  centralbanks  culture  BIS  trustagent  trust  confidence  collusion  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  BBA  FSA  PaulTucker  BOE  barclays  EURIBOR  LIBOR 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Financial transaction tax on City would help rebalance Britain's economy | Business | The Guardian
Financial transaction tax on city would help rebalance Britain’s economy

With Germany, France , Italy and Spain all in favour of the FTT, George Osborne ‘s assumption is that such a tax could raise costs in those countries and drive business into London…

***

Britain could have cut up rough about a so-called Tobin tax, but Osborne has decided that the aggro is not worth it. His assumption is that a financial transaction tax (FTT) will raise costs in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan and Madrid, and so drive business to the City.

The chancellor is also dubious about claims that the money will be spent on "good causes" such as development aid or helping poor countries adapt to climate change. In the event that an FTT does prove to be a cash cow, Osborne thinks hard-up European governments will use it to reduce their budget deficits.

*
also in the article, imbalances of UK economy, and that a FTT will make the imbalance worse.
davidcameron  economic-thought  economic  model  2012  economy  greatrecession  GFC  economics  comparative  advantage  MervynKing  BoE  FSA  GeorgeOsborne  UK  tobin-tax  financialtransactionfee 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Osborne’s £100bn plan for UK economy - FT.com
George Osborne on Thursday night announced plans for a £100bn support programme for the British economy,

Sir Mervyn also raised the prospect of a new round of quantitative easing, saying that “the case for a further monetary easing is growing”.

At the heart of the package is a BoE “funding for lending” scheme to cut bank funding costs in exchange for lending commitments. The Treasury claims the programme, designed to address the rising costs of loans and mortgages, could support an estimated £80bn in new loans.

the BoE will also on Friday activate an emergency scheme that offers six-month liquidity to banks in tranches of no less than £5bn a month.

***

1 1/2 weeks ago IMF did present such a scheme in its latest report about UK economy and did encourage UK do to so if situation deteriorates further.
IMF  MervynKing  creditcrunch  banking  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  ZIRP  QE  greatrecession  UK  2012  GeorgeOsborne  BOE 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro zone crisis: Old maid | The Economist
There is no "solution" to the debt crisis that is pain-free; we are merely arguing about how the pain is distributed.
davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  barackobama  FrancoisHollande  sarkozy  angelamerkel  politics  Grexit  Spain  Italy  Greece  France  Germany  PIIGS  UK  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Charity and taxation: Sweetened charity | The Economist
Reducing tax bill by giving to charities ...

"The basic question remains: why should taxpayer B face a bigger tax bill because taxpayer A chooses to give to charity?"

***
Thorny topic among Economists ...
Weighting the issue, what benefits most society? What is an acceptable liberal approach (as it is spending/consumption in one way or the other). And how to achieve elasticity 1 or greater and achieving a balancing act for both sides. Also one could make it more transparent with public records. Who give to whom how much.
governance  microeconomics  microeconomic  policy  economics  elasticity  elasticity  of  demand  philanthropy  politics  philosophy  society  moral  GeorgeOsborne  fiscal  policy  UK  charity  taxation 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Bagehot: David Cameron is not too posh | The Economist
The most alarming finding from focus groups conducted by the Conservative Party after last month’s budget did not involve tax rates. It was that voters suspect that British budgets no longer much matter, because the country is just a little island buffeted by global forces. Most British fear their children will be worse off than they are. They are losing faith that governments can fix this.

[...]

But a graver test looms. An earlier Conservative critic once coined a deadly phrase, calling the Major government “in office but not in power”. Today all big political parties face a similar charge. Their challenge is to convince unhappy, cynical British voters that politicians have power to do much good at all.

[[ The last bit is true for Germany too. Except that Ms Merkel still got some backing. ]]
greatrecession  sentiment  culture  society  sovereign  debt  crisis  nickclegg  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  Politics  2012  Germany  UK 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Private Polizeiwache in Großbritannien: G4S, übernehmen Sie! - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Keine Firma hat so sehr vom Privatisierungstrend profitiert wie G4S

Anlass für die weitreichende Privatisierung ist der Sparkurs der liberalkonservativen Koalition in London. Schatzkanzler George Osborne hatte 2010 allen regionalen Polizeichefs eine Budgetkürzung von 20 Prozent bis 2014 verordnet. Wenn Lincolnshire die Zahl der 1100 Einsatzbeamten konstanthalten wolle, müsse man eben an die Verwaltung ran, sagt Polizeisprecher Hardwick.

Der Glaube an die Vorteile einer teilprivatisierten Justiz ist in Großbritannien tief verwurzelt. Bereits 1992 eröffnete das erste private Gefängnis Europas in der Grafschaft Yorkshire. Schon damals hieß der Betreiber G4S. Inzwischen sitzen rund zwölf Prozent der britischen Häftlinge in privaten Haftanstalten, Tendenz steigend.

Keine Firma hat so sehr von diesem Trend profitiert wie G4S. Das Unternehmen mit Sitz in Crawley bei London beschäftigt inzwischen über 600.000 Mitarbeiter in 130 Ländern.
GeorgeOsborne  2012  austerity  UK 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Reuters Breakingviews: UK retains credibility despite pensions fudge - YouTube
Dec. 21 - Chris Hughes of Reuters Breakingviews says the UK government has retained its credibility even though it has compromised on public sector pensions.

- Thatcher would admire cameron and osborne for the lack of revolt (public outcry) after public sector cuts and pension cuts.
history  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  publicsector  2011  austerity  uk 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Britain's economy: Into the storm | The Economist
Britain’s economy has its own home-grown problems, to which the misery on its doorstep will add. Spending power is scarce. Wage growth is running at less than half the level of inflation. Public-sector workers, who staged a large strike over the government’s pension reforms this week (see article), face a further two years of squeezed pay. Householders will be reluctant to dip deeper into their savings while their own debts are so high. That leaves Britain’s economy dependent on foreign demand. As two-fifths of exports are shipped to the euro zone, recession there will drag down Britain’s economy as well. Jobs are already being cut in London’s financial district, one of Britain’s more reliable export industries, because fees and commissions have dried up.

budget deficit was at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10
The deficit will fall to 8.4% of GDP this fiscal year.
Britain’s triple-A credit rating seems assured
plans announced imply public-spending cuts will last until 2017
UK  2011  2012  economy  austerity  recession  lostdecade  budget  deficit  creditrating  GeorgeOsborne  OBR  output-gap  slack 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
HOW TO BUILD A STRONGER RECOVERY (UK)
He stuck broadly to Labour’s plans for slashing public sector capital spending, on roads, bridges, hospitals, schools and the rest.
Even under tough coalition plans, current spending on public services, including wages and salaries, will rise throughout this parliament, from £600.9 billion in 2009-10 to £713.4 billion by 2015-16.
Capital spending, by contrast, is being butchered. Gross spending will drop from £68.9 billion in 2009-10 to a low of £47.7 billion in 2013-14, before creeping up to £50.4 billion by 2015-16. Spending net of depreciation will fall from £49.5 billion in 2009-10 to £23.8 billion in 2013-14 and will only be £24.5 billion - half its earlier peak - in 2015-16. Remember these are cash sums, so the drop in real terms is even greater.
Cutting capital spending like this is a bad idea. Fiscal multipliers, the amount of economic bang a government gets for its spending buck, are always significantly higher for capital spending.
austerity  government  spending  UK  2011  outlook  GeorgeOsborne 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Ben Bernanke realised printing yet more money would look desperate - Telegraph
The reality is QE has already done an awful lot of damage. America has expanded its base money supply three-fold in two and a half years – from 6pc to 18pc of national income. But even this jaw-dropping measure hasn't led to much of an expansion in monetary measures, such as M2 that include bank lending, precisely because the banks, for all the propaganda to the contrary, are still determined not to lend. They can make more money simply channelling QE money into stocks and other investments.Crucially, the banks also remain petrified of counter-party risk in the inter-bank market. Many of them, disgracefully, are still concealing vast sub-prime losses in off-balance-sheet vehicles. So they assume other banks are doing the same. Such mistrust between the banks – "we're lying, so they must be lying" – gums up the wheels of finance and starves even creditworthy firms of the funds needed to invest and create jobs.

zombi banks - same as japan +10 years ago.
transparency  Fed  benbernanke  2011  JacksonHole  QE  QE3  QE2  quantitative  easing  ZIRP  M2  moneysupply  monetary  policy  inflation  deflation  USA  UK  monetarybase  interbank  LIBOR  trust  confidence  toxicassets  subprime  zombi  banks  company  capitalism  fiatmoney  politics  barackobama  presidency  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  greatrecession  recovery  lostdecade  Japan  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  centralbanks  trichet 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Relax, central banks can still save us - Telegraph
Military demobilisation allowed an instant cut in the US budget deficit. Today the rot is structural, a failure to stop health care and ageing costs spiralling out of control.

The eurozone obviously needs looser money. M3 broad money is stagnant and real M1 deposits have turned negative, even in Germany and Holland. Real M1 is contracting at an alarming pace in Italy. EMU growth has wilted, five countries are spinning towards default, and the banking system is seizing up. This cries out for a change of course, yet the European Central Bank is still tightening.
USA  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balancesheet  recession  greatrecession  GFC  depression  history  paulkrugman  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  monetary  policy  supply  M1  M3  velocity  money  creditcrunch  error  folly  benbernanke  trichet  2011  August  JacksonHole  lesson  greatdepression  fiscal  austerity  europe  UK  presidency  barackobama  davidcameron  angelamerkel  sarkozy  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
U.S. Stocks Tumble on Global Growth Concerns, Economic Reports - Bloomberg
“It’s almost like a worldwide buyers strike,” “There’s a continued general malaise on global economic activity. People continue to downgrade their expectations on growth on a worldwide basis. There’s concern about funding problems. That’s making us very nervous here and as such we want to take risk out of portfolios at least for the immediate future.”
‘Dangerously Close’The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
politics  mistake  error  folly  policy  USA  europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  UK  germany  barackobama  angelamerkel  sarkozy  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  EFSF  ESM 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Caught In A Trap - BLOG IU.EU
nothing new ....

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a state-funded watchdog, recently produced a figure of £1.1 trillion as the net present value of public sector pension liabilities as at the end of March 2010, based upon a discount rate of 1.8 percent. That’s substantially bigger than the UK’s official net debt of £944 billion.
UK  pension  liability  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  unfunded  GeorgeOsborne  2011  August  OBR  state 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Why hacking row will cost UK dear | City A.M.
Osborne and his advisers ought to be working day and night on contingency plans in case the Eurozone collapses or the US defaults, not worrying about ex-tabloid journalists. We need a plan for supply-side led growth in the UK, not a plan to contain the damage to the government from phone-hacking.
Even more depressingly, if it were to become apparent that the government could actually fall – before any cuts to overall public spending have actually happened – the markets would panic. The only reason institutions are still willing to lend so much so cheaply to the UK government is that they broadly trust its austerity plans; if these were suddenly swept away, everything would change in an instant. These are truly dangerous times.
GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  UK  austerity  2011  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  economy 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
HOW BRITAIN CAN GROW OLD WITHOUT GOING BROKE
tough choices

In the short-term, ... , growth is the problem.
On the back of the latest industrial production figures it reckons GDP will have risen only 0.1% in the second quarter. Some City economists are even gloomier. Knowing the Office for National Statistics, this at least raises the possibility of a negative second quarter.
Weak growth may not end there. The CEBR (Centre for Economics and Business Research), in a new forecast tomorrow, says without the contribution of a strong consumer and rising government spending, growth will average only 1.8% between now and the end of 2015.
That is about two-thirds of the pre-crisis growth rate and will mean annual government borrowing will be about £20 billion higher at the end of the parliament than forecast at the time of the March budget.
 if Britain’s trend growth has permanently dropped, the public spending that can be afforded in the future will be less than was thought.
UK  economy  growth  2011  2015  stagflation  economics  inflation  outlook  pension  age  debate  sustainability  population  austerity  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Cameron Learns From Thatcher on Economy - Bloomberg
 Cameron has no alternative to pressing ahead, political scholars say. The premier and his ministers will face more opposition this week as public-sector unions prepare for strikes against pension curbs.Thatcher’s experience shows sticking to painful economic policies is less dangerous politically than a perception of weakness, according to Tim Bale, author of “The Conservative Party From Thatcher to Cameron.”“Even if people disagree, the idea that you’re sticking to it and prepared to stay the course is important,” said Bale, who’s professor of politics at the University of Sussex.

The premier tried to make a virtue last week of his rethink of an overhaul of the NHS, a step forced on him by a rebellion from his Liberal Democrat coalition partners and protests from doctors and nurses. He said it showed his government is listening.

"You turn if you want to. The lady’s not for turning."
“She thought very carefully and chose her battles,”
davidcameron  margaretthatcher  UK  economy  politics  austerity  2011  history  policy  politicalscience  politicaleconomy  GeorgeOsborne 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Nouriel Roubini: 'We haven't seen the last of financial crises' - Profiles, People - The Independent
"I have got a team of 50 people who follow every aspect of the world economy, not just in advanced and emerging economies, but in exotic markets in Africa and central Asia and the Middle East. Most banks don't have a single person looking at the Middle East. We have no conflict of interest because we don't manage money... we don't invest ourselves". As for the Dr Doom thing he responds: "I'm not Dr Doom – I'm Dr Realist".

"Well, my advice – and I spoke with him [Osborne] on a couple of occasions – has been about too much fiscal austerity – though it was necessary, too much of it was front-loaded. He was making the argument that, if the austerity is too front-loaded and it was going to have a negative effect on demand, then it would be the job of the Bank of England to stimulate growth through monetary policy.
NourielRoubini  BOE  uk  growth  outlook  economy  economics  monetary  fiscal  policy  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  austerity 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Budget 2010: Income tax removed for lowest paid | UK news | The Guardian
hit the richest 10% hardest and take 850,000 of the lowest paid out of income tax altogether.

Osborne will announce a £200 tax cut for 20 million basic rate taxpayers in an attempt to show that the toughest budget in a generation is "tough but fair". His aides claim Osborne has consciously learned from the mistaken austerity budgets of the 1980s, which did not do enough to distribute the pain fairly.

raising the personal income tax allowance by £1,000 to £6,475, at a cost of £3.7bn, and a key Liberal Democrat policy – of raising personal allowances to £10,000. Those on higher incomes would not benefit from the tax break, and would have their tax thresholds lowered to leave them no better off.

The business secretary, Vince Cable, has been the chief architect of the scheme to increase personal allowances as a way of injecting greater fairness into the tax system. It appears Cable's aides are willing to see a VAT rise tomorrow to help pay for the reforms.
uk  GeorgeOsborne  budget  2010  2011 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
Budget: Osborne targets banks and property investors | UK news | The Guardian
The current rate of capital gains tax is 18%, while the highest rates of income tax are 40% and 50%. The tax is levied on the sale of assets such as investments in private companies, buy-to-let houses and stocks and shares. According to Treasury calculations, a single percentage point rise in capital gains tax would raise just £10m this year, rising to £130m the following year. However, the indirect benefit of pushing wealth accumulation back into the income tax regime is where Osborne hopes to see most benefit.
austerity  uk  2010  2011  budget  GeorgeOsborne 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
George Osborne facing budget backlash | UK news | The Guardian
In a BBC interview, Osborne promised a crackdown on the "out of control" welfare system, suggesting that public sector pay will be frozen beyond the expected one year and launching a review of public sector pensions, to be chaired by the former Labour minister John Hutton.

Osborne insisted the budget measures would be spread fairly across society, suggesting capital gains tax will rise and promising a new banking levy. But he refused to be drawn on the vexed issue of a potential rise in VAT, which the Conservatives had privately committed to raising from 17.5% to 19.5% before the election.

Osborne said he had designed the budget to ensure that everyone played their part in tackling the deficit, but last night that argument seemed to be failing to convince as he came under attack from industry, civil society groups and unions over the plans.
GeorgeOsborne  austerity  uk  2010  2011  budget 
june 2010 by asterisk2a

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