asterisk2a + boj   139

(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Back to the future on inflation
[ no rising demand = no inflation ] Globalisation and the march of technology have strengthened the hand of employers and weakened that of workers. So it is no surprise that though unemployment has relentlessly fallen, wage growth remains in the doldrums.

Then there is the war between generations. As the baby boomers approached retirement, they sought to safeguard their wealth. Inflation-targeting central banks, the dismantling of the welfare state and fiscal austerity were the natural results. The modern macroeconomic constitution has disenfranchised the inflationary constituency of the young. &! https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tax-cuts-for-the-rich-solve-nothing-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2017-07
USA  UK  European  Union  inflation  targeting  GDP  demand  economic  history  babyboomers  Generationy  Generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  Millennials  Austerity  secular  stagnation  working  poor  Precariat  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  inequality  1%  10%  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  Taxation  trickle-down  ECB  Fed  BOE  BOJ  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  pension  scheme  obligation  Brexit  bank  bailout  recovery  GFC 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
Distortion of financial economy (speculation), underinvestment in real things.
7:33 QE and ZIRP and banks business model, the financialisation of the western economies, is causing underinvestment now for a too long time, in the real economy (companies, R&D, infrastructure, edu, productivity). - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL31ORGxZPk - TBTF central banks w QE blance sheet unable to unwind it! Loss of faith in politics and the system. (2) credit bubble from consumers that made the recovery w the help of ZIRP QE - zombie consumer zombie companies zombie banks - kept just about alive w QE and ZIRP. america uk worth more on paper due to credit and forex USD £ than their real economy realer wirtschaftswert (3) Argentina example.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  housing  mortgage  bubble  real  estate  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  recovery  GFC  central  banks  ECB  BOE  Fed  BOJ  austerity  Schuldenbremse  trickle-down  underinvestment  economic  history  TBTF 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
RBS to charge major financial institutions for holding their cash | Business | The Guardian
Royal Bank of Scotland is to start charging major financial institutions for any cash it holds on their behalf for trading purposes, in the latest illustration of the impact of Mark Carney’s post-Brexit vote stimulus package.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  UK  USA  Germany  unintended  consequences  unknown  economic  history  BOE  FED  ECB  BOJ  monetary  policy  distortion 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed
Given that both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal have covered the impossibility of pension funds achieving their expected returns, this reality cannot be a surprise to anyone in a leadership role. [...] Here's problem #1 in a nutshell: the average public pension fund still expects to earn an average annual return of 7.69%, year after year, decade after decade.

This is roughly triple the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) yield on a 30-year Treasury bond (about 2.65%). The only way any fund manager can earn 7.7% or more in a low-yield environment is to make extremely high risk bets that consistently pay off. //&! Millennials are first gen to have earned less in their 20's than previous gens. - bit.ly/2a9M98K
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  hunt  for  yield  life  insurance  insurance  industry  monetary  policy  Helicopter  Money  monetary  theory  bond  bubble  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  economic  history  recovery  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  western  world  Japan  BOJ  pension  fund  Beton  Gold  Betongold  property  bubble  asset  allocation  funds  allocation  asset  bubble  Pensioner  pension  scheme  secular  stagnation  austerity  deflation  deflationary  Confidence  Fairy  IMF  OECD  credit  boom  credit  bubble  New  Normal  Great  Moderation  economic  harm  economic  damage  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  distortion 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
deflation  deflationary  NIRP  currency  war  currency  debasement  ZIRP  QE  Helicopter  Money  secular  stagnation  western  world  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  economic  history  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  debt  overhang  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  mortgage  market  mortgage  rates  distortion  hunt  for  yield  credit  boom  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  reflate  reflation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  income  disparity  working  poor  Precariat  Brexit  GFC  too  big  to  jail  productive  investment  underinvestment  austerity  history  productivity  gap  financial  instruments  investment  banking  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  derivatives  output  gap  productivity  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  deregulation  Wall  Street  speculative  bubble  property  bubble  Beton  Gold  Betongold  stagnation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  TBTF  complexity  systemic  risk  systemrelevant  systemicrisk  systemrelevanz  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  leverage  hedge  Glass-Steagall  Black-Scholes  Equation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"
[NEED FOR CHANGE OF WIND - deflationary pressures ] Europe is another story. Germany must let their southern neighbors cheat on deficits and bank recapitalizations. “Spanish election showed if you let them cheat and growth surprises positively then extremists don’t do so well. Europe can only survive as an inflation zone. Will it be formally tolerated? Probably not. Will governments cheat anyway with ECB support?” Probably.
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Tasting menu: Audio highlights from the February 20th 2016 edition by The Economist
"liberal centrist politicians are not up to the job" always claiming the confidence fairy will show up if they stop what they are doing! "faith in monetary policy is wavering" ... emerging market debt bubble (through hunt for yield, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, credit bubble originating from China) is unwinding and threatening global system stability.
aggregate  demand  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Taper  QT  Fed  distortion  hot-money  austerity  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  western  world  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  Mark  Carney  BOE  property  bubble  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  fairness  recovery  unintended  consequences 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
credit  bubble  economic  history  BIS  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  working  poor  credit  card  debt  household  debt  property  bubble  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  China  USA  subprime  car  loan  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Student  debt  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Fed  ECB  BOE  Japan  BOJ  Abenomics  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  group  think  think  tank  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubble Machine Timeline: Visual Evidence Of The Fed's "Third Mandate" | Zero Hedge
The problem with rushing to combat any sign of economic or financial market turmoil by resorting immediately to counter-cyclical policies is that the creative destruction that would normally serve to purge speculative excess isn’t allowed to operate and so, misallocated capital is allowed to linger from crisis to crisis, making the next boom and subsequent bust even larger than the last.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
RICHARD KOO: 'Struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun' - Business Insider
… much of the rise in share prices and fall in currency values under QE were nothing more than liquidity-driven phenomena divorced from real economy fundamentals. Now that an end to QE is in sight, it is time for a correction. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks several months ago about elevated stock market valuations were most likely a reference to this bubble. A correction of some kind was inevitable as the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. However, it still needed a trigger, and that was provided by China. [...] “The market gyrations of the last two months represent just the beginning of the QE trap”, says Koo.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's IPO of the Century - Bloomberg View
The privatization couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an early Abenomics cheerleader, said this week that he's "really, really worried" about Tokyo’s chances of ending a two-decade slump. The hope is that the listing, which will be targeted at individual Japanese, will encourage households to invest more of their savings. Perhaps more important, it could enliven the country's stagnant banking sector. Japan is among the developed world's most overbanked nations, with more than 100 sleepy regional players (84 of which are publicly traded) servicing 126 million people. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policies, profit margins are shrinking even faster than the population.
Abenomics  Japan  economic  history  2015  neoliberalism  neoliberal  TPP  Privatisation  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  corporate  governance  culture  society  demographic  bubble  competitive  competition  competitiveness  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  deflation  Yen  BOJ  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  White  Elephants  asset  allocation  R&D  STEM  industrial  policy  China  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  M3 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why did Japan stop growing? Professor Takeo Hoshi at ANU - YouTube
Blyth argued its culture/society & structural. TPP trade deal might help productivity growth & opening Japan further 2 global trade. & encourage immigration reform. Regulatory reform; stop protection of zombies (gov guarantees, contracts, subsidies), corporate governance. Oversight. Transparency. Also Start-up rate (bottom-up disruption) needs reform (reduce red tape, create start-up/business hubs) // &! What is Abenomics? - youtu.be/_UafzhHzmwE //&! Noriko Hama & Yukio Noguchi "Abenomics and What comes After" - youtu.be/a29FTJXYev0 'unable to share affluence' - income redistribution << marginal propensity to consume, 16% left out of society (poverty), lack of empathy & compassion. BOJ is single lender 2 gov. Career Politicians! Companies have no need 2 borrow/cant force banks 2 lend. //&! min52 Problem of rising long-term interest rates solved w BOJ debt monetisation = inflation (probable near future scenario). &! youtu.be/ArnLHTE0e1g &! youtu.be/wYtJ7Fyn9NA &! youtu.be/AbKeTeb-I_M
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Housing market is hotting up, banks say - BBC News
The UK has a serious shortage of affordable homes. Lesley Curwen asks whether the current system - where councils do deals with developers to provide cheaper homes - is working. - bbc.in/1FR9JAh << abuse of process and accounting! profit maximization! how about starting up "housing for people co-op!" being a developer as social enterprise (together with other entrepreneurs like Branson)!? better architecture! and builder/partners take 10% off their contracts price and get part in co-op shares! long-term view! multi-purpose use regeneration. start out in manchester, ... // &! Foreign criminals are laundering billions of pounds through the purchase of expensive properties, which is pushing up house prices in the UK, the National Crime Agency has said. [ not only criminals park their money in property (being left empty) but also BRIC's newly minted paper millionaires post-GFC by engineered asset price reflation via centralbanks) - bbc.in/1HZXkFW &! bit.ly/1CX6uGL
UK  property  bubble  mortgage  market  affordable  housing  social  housing  2015  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  London  credit  bubble  China  PBOC  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  generation  rent  BRIC  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  transparency  accountability  Public  Good  interest 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
We’re gonna need a bigger round...
After 15 years of staggering declines, the cost of building a company in San Francisco is rising sharply // prohibitive! diluting too much too early. // China and other BRIC paper millionaers divesting into property speculators, around the world. every city that has seen substantial price appreciation +10-20% over last +5 years // hot money from monetary policy, excess reserves, flushing around the globe //
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
ABN Amro Warns There Is A 40% Chance Mario Draghi Expands ECB QE "As Soon As This Week" | Zero Hedge
The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go." Deutsche was kind enough to provide a silver lining to this otherwise dreary forecast: "What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates." [... or the shadowy actor Belgium - bit.ly/1LWtQQ9 &! bit.ly/1Ib2oNo - might have been a smoke mirror of the PBOC using "Euroclear", but the rabbit is out of the hat now! ] //&! bloom.bg/1JBiywV - Welcome to Quantitative Tightening as $12 Trillion Reserves Fall. The great global monetary tightening of 2015 is under way, but it’s not being led by the Federal Reserve.
QT  Quantitative  Tightening  Taper  QE  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  2015  China  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  reserve  currency  petrodollar  PBOC  centralbanks  reserves  FX  reserves  Treasury  Market  treasuries  bond  bubble  reflate  reflation  distortion  economic  history  global  trade  global  growth  global  economy  OPEC  Russia 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
austerity  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  downward  mobility  inequality  apathy  voter  turnout  crony  capitalism  ideology  dogma  GFC  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Conservative  Party  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  UK  Europe  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  lost  generation  lost  decade  Japan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  unknown  unkown  Taper  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Thomas  Piketty  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  Eurogroup  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  reflate  recovery  reflation  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  BOE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  short-term  Career  Politicians  political  theory  social  contract  Gesellschaft  No  Representation  Rechtsruck  stagnation  social 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Will the Next Recession Be Made in China? - Bloomberg Business
When China sneezes, the world just might catch a cold [...] The difference between now and then is that a lot of developing nations and global markets have braced themselves against the risks of a currency crisis, making a full-scale Asian Contagion unlikely. [...] “In a nutshell, no one can or should rule out a crisis, but we believe that the risk has fallen from a few years ago.” [...] Financial markets depend on good information. When it’s lacking, investors flail. They assume the best when they’re bullish and the worst when fear gets the best of them. That helps explain the eruption over China, a nation that remains opaque despite having the world’s second-biggest economy. Facts as basic as its GDP are hard to pin down: Officially it grew at 7 percent in the first and second quarters—suspiciously, precisely the rate Li predicted for 2015. Some outsiders put growth at closer to 5 percent based on data such as electricity consumption and rail cargo.
global  economy  China  global  trade  Europe  USA  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  contagion  economic  history  2015  recovery  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  PBOC  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  Debt  Super  Cycle 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
On Second Thought, China Slowdown Will Hit Global-Growth Outlook - Bloomberg Business
Fitch Ratings said in a note Wednesday that while pessimism on China’s short-term outlook is “overdone,” there is still the potential for a “prolonged period of lower growth,” with expansion well below 7 percent. [...] Things are looking gloomier elsewhere. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, contracted 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, the government reported on Friday. That’s worse than the 1.7 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. [...] “The basic assumptions about global growth are suffering, and the epicenter is China,” // lots of hot money on the hunt for yield found its way to emerging market and developing market! period, didn't stay in UK, US, Europe. Period. That is something policy makers accepted. financial market is global, not local. BOE ZIRP NIRP QE can not be contained within UK. Period. Same with Chinese newly minted property/paper millionaires put their money in London & else. LatAm into Miami and Co property.
global  economy  BRIC  global  trade  deflationary  deflation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  China  Russia  India  2015  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  emerging  middle  class  GFC  monetary  policy  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  unintended  consequences  complexity  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BOE  Fed  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  zombie  banks  monetary  theory  contagion  financial  repression  financial  market  bond  bubble  property  bubble  PBOC 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! bit.ly/1EQ31Fn &! bit.ly/1F1zPue - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
correction  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  emerging  market  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  2015  unknown  unkown  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  China  USA  western  world  secular  stagnation  Developing  developed  world  Europe  UK  Singapore  Asia  global  economy  global  trade  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  economic  history  Taper  Abenomics  Japan  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  Richard  Koo  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  deflationary  deflation  job  creation  job  market  participation  rate  industrial  policy  Makers  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  PBOC  distortion  faultlines  Impediments  STEM  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Paul  Krugman  Larry  Summers  Ben  Bernanke  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  fiscal  stimulus  George  Osborne  dogma  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  ideology 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Global economy woes spark share falls - BBC News
Fed released minutes from its meeting on 28-29 July, showing that one policymaker was ready to vote for an interest rate rise at the meeting. Overall, the Fed thought conditions for a US rate rise "were approaching", but the economy was not ready yet. Other policymakers remained concerned that inflation would remain weak because of the strong dollar and falling commodity prices, which act as a double depressant on imports. The Fed's key interest rate has been kept near zero since December 2008. There has been speculation that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in September, and last month Fed chair Janet Yellen said she thought a rate rise this year was likely. Following the release of the Fed's minutes, US stocks rallied briefly but then fell back, while the dollar weakened on the currency markets. The Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading down 0.9%. [...] The committee also cited China as a potential problem, [...] [econ growth has 2 be sufficiently strong, incl labour mrkt]
China  Yuan  RMB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  dis-inflation  deflationary  deflation  Fed  PBOC  currency  debasement  devaluation  currency  war  currency-war  Dollar  Japan  Yen  BOJ  Abenomics  economic  history  Taper  2015  recovery  labour  market  participation  rate  unemployment  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  BIS  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  New  Normal  FOMC  commodity  prices  global  trade  global  economy  headwinds 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's economy shrinks by 0.4% in a blow for 'Abenomics' growth plan | World news | The Guardian
the country’s main Nikkei stock market index was up strongly by 0.6% as investors expected the government to unleash more monetary stimulus. “Should growth remain sluggish for another quarter and inflation expectations start to fall, the odds of additional monetary easing would increase substantially,” analysts at DBS said in a commentary. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, fell 0.8%, as exports dropped 4.4%. “The sharp plunge from the previous quarter’s surprise growth was partly due to disappointing demand for Japanese products in the US, Chinese and other resource-exporting markets,” SMBC Nikko Securities said in a commentary. “Sluggish wage growth and bad weather drove down consumption at home,” it added. // no demand led recovery. debt fuelled recovery! little is fixed thus nothing (kogs) fits and runs by itself as one would expect. // [...] convincing people to splash out on consumer goods has been a struggle
equity  bubble  BOJ  Abenomics  China  2015  western  world  developed  world  Taper  QE  NIRP  ZIRP  economic  history  global  economy  global  trade  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Yen  Richard  Koo  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  GFC  trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  bailout  microeconomic  policy  microeconomics  behavioral  finance  deleveraging  debt  servitude  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Psychology  sociology  savings  rate  uncertainty  insecurity 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China devalues yuan currency to three-year low - BBC News
bbc.in/1WfUOFp // The weakening of the currency will also put the US Fed on the spot. In effect China is exporting deflation to the US - and so some will argue that the Fed should find an elegant way to back away from its recent signalling that September will see the first rise in interest rates since the Crash of 2008. Or to put it another way, in terms of US manufacturers and exporters, Beijing has done the monetary tightening that arguably the US economy needs. // &! tcrn.ch/1Tnj89s Apple shares reaction -5%, higher import costs. // &! bbc.in/1TrsssP - rattles the markets. // &! bit.ly/1JdPM8F - Der starke Verlust des Yuan deutete darauf hin, dass China einen Währungskrieg mit dem Westen provoziert. Doch tatsächlich spiegelt der niedrige Kurs die Schwäche der chinesischen Wirtschaft. // &! 3rd day, 3 devaluation move - bit.ly/1Ns1kmu &! Western central banks advised to resist [taper] & 2 prepare 2 ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports - bit.ly/1DLIEy3
China  economic  growth  2015  yuan  currency  war  devaluation  PBOC  Taper  USA  UK  deflationary  deflation  RMB  Japan  Europe  Germany  disinflation  inflation  expectation  dis-inflation  inflation  inflation  targeting  western  world  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Brazil  Australia  commodities  IMF  SDR  Forex  Yen  USD  Euro  British  Pound  recovery  faultlines  global  trade  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  global  imbalances  savings  glut  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  monetary  policy  Oil  price  energy  price 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
BaFin: Lebensversicherer kämpfen mit Kapitalregeln - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Lebensversicherungen leiden unter den niedrigen Zinsen in der Eurozone. Deshalb fällt es vielen Konzernen laut Finanzaufsicht BaFin schwer, ihre Kapitalanlagen an die neuen Regeln anzupassen - es gebe noch einige "Wackelkandidaten".
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  behavioral  finance  group  behavior  behavioral  economics  Taper  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  liquidity  trap  economic  history 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
David Stockman: Central Banks Setting Up World for Bad Time - YouTube
"monetary madness" - repeat phrase of we aim for 2% inflation, that is why we do it. // BIS warned recently in its yearly paper - that Central Banks are unable to combat any global crisis flare-up that is more likely to be worse than GFC ... could be China of all things. // 2000 bust was fought with fed easing and throwing money at it, and GFC too. Next crisis - throwing money at it and easing will not be possible. // &! Deflation Comes First, Then Inflation - Mike Maloney - youtu.be/vAFtlgJNMCo // &! "One Bet, that is Big Enough, (that maybe was even conventional wisdom that it is save and THE BET) when wrong, does put you in a deep deep hole - youtu.be/tp9UjhZz-eo --- Nassim Taleb. There are lots of candidates/things that could blow up in peoples faces. &! Nouriel Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy - youtu.be/IADncoxQRYg
BIS  deflationary  deflation  financial  repression  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Abenomics  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  inflation  expectation  inflation  currency  war  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  IMF  currency  debasement  inflation  targeting  disinflation  hyperinflation  dis-inflation  deleveraging  leverage  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  dot.com  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  Nassim  Taleb  Black  Swan  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Abenomics: Is It Time to Label the Plan a Failure? - YouTube
QE stops the worst from happening. but it doesn't create the best outcome to happen. // &! white elephants and roads and bridges to nowhere part of wrongly headed short-term view of fiscal stimulus made-up by Career Politicians ... :/
Abenomics  BOJ  economic  history  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiscal  stimulus  demographic  bubble  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  financial  repression  Richard  Koo 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
What Explains the Persistent Lack of Inflation? - YouTube
world is flattening, technology impact, low hanging fruits picked, lack of income growth (lack of disposable income, discretionary spending - squeezed middle class), inequality (Super Rich, 1% and corporations not paying fair share of tax), austerity, austerity (underinvestment, no productive investment for long-term growth), business (underinvestment and no productive investment), low to negative savings rate!, a demographic bubble,
secular  stagnation  western  world  disinflation  deflationary  2015  economic  history  economic  model  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  Lohnzurückhaltung  Niedriglohnsektor  income  growth  squeezed  middle  class  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  complexity  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  western  society  productivity  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  OECD  output  gap  participation  rate  labour  market  labour  economics  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  IMF  recovery  GFC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Super  Rich  1%  crony  capitalism  bailout  inequality  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  trickle-down  economics  economic  damage  macroeconomics  economic  growth  microeconomics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Schuldenbremse  Pact  PIGS  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Beware bond tantrums ahead - YouTube
germany's 10 year hick-up was not a fundamental cause, was a market cause; supply-demand & liquidity !? // Or just that investors woke up that negative/0 yield could continue for prolonged period and just wanted to shift portfolio ... ?! // divergence between equity and fundamentals is driven by monetary policy to message continued support in case we hit a bump. // https://youtu.be/8O-GKfDe2J4 - Bond rout explained in 90 seconds //
bond  bubble  equity  bubble  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  2015  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Meet the World's Most Bearish Investment Manager - YouTube
ratio - price to book value, we are current extreme value is just toped by 2000. // Tobins Q Ratio - The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. // stocks should and are a sideshow, a world for punters. what does matter is investment in capital and tools and higher productivity and progress of humans - but Fed drove wedge in, driving stocks away from reality. ... Market doesn't owe you liquidity. what if liquidity dries up and nobody wants to buy. + HFT! = Flashcrash // http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation.php // could go on for another 3-4 years till reality hits the fan or an exogenous shock from an vector not seen/anticipated before.
speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  dot.com  GFC  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  2015  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  distortion  Taper  underinvestment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  Fed  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  market  correction  HFT  flashcrash  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  IMF  OECD  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Andreessen on innovation and diversity | Fortune - YouTube
Public Market became cautious '14/'15: oil price slump + China + Russia + secular stagnation of the west in general (productivity gap & output gap), Abenomics, negative bond yields for gov debt and nearly 0 for corporate AAA debt, deflationary pressures in UK (0% inflation last 2 quarters), Europe (steady decline of M3 & issuance of new debt), & USA (with deflationary pressures as well). macroeconomic indicators do signal caution, because despite all the efforts (throwing the bathtub at the problem; ECB installing negative yield 4 overnight bank deposits with them) from central banks (NIRP, QE, POMO & other policies), the economic engine of the world & the west is still not going into 3rd or higher. // & Andreesen's argument, against, that tech is in bubblish territory, is, that in comparison with '99/'00 & the Public Markets current caution; (re-)investment (GOOG 11bn '14) & share buybacks (IBM, MSFT) schemes & dividends payout dwarf VC & growth rounds in tech by several magnitudes.
2015  IPO  M&A  Wall  Street  shareholder  shareholder  value  Silicon  Valley  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  recovery  GFC  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  Fed  Public  Market  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  single-class  share  structure  Marc  Andreessen  Venture  Capital  Unicorn  economic  history  macroeconomics  debt  bubble  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  distortion  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  Super  Cycle  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside Out London - The Great Property Race
London, one of the most expensive places on earth to live. // Inside Out London - The Great Property Race - Mark Jordan joins first-time buyers and cash-rich Chinese investors as they race to buy homes in the capital's fast, furious and often cruel market. >> London-mania, speculation, ASIAN individual investors leave flats empty & sell them again after 12-18m after much appreciation of value. Buying just based on the prospect & not one stone put down or even speculating on green fields planning permission 5 years down the road. Insane. // &! Existing owners building owners are in a Millionaire Basement Wars - bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05r86yg // Think about all that money being invested long-term into productive investments (STEM) creating current & future opportunity. Lowering the output & productivity gap of UK! Once, a high rise is finished, there are no jobs there that generate tax income from revenue/profit generation - that of a worker or company of the 21st century.
speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  London  London  Start-up  Scene  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  QE  secular  stagnation  savings  glut  incomplete  information  economic  history  liquidity  trap  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  ASIA  affordable  housing  property  bubble  UK  Betongold  Beton  Gold  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  productive  investment  macroprudential  policy  BOE  BOJ  Private  Equity  symptom  unintended  consequences  recovery  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Makers  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  borderless  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  job  creation  research  human  progress  Philosophy  status  anxiety  superficial 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Deutschlands Handelsbilanz: Die Probleme einer Exportnation - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In Deutschland wird zu wenig investiert, zugleich spielen wir bei den Exporten bald in unserer eigenen Liga. Die Unternehmenslobby fordert eine Senkung der Lohnkosten. Doch genau das Gegenteil wäre die richtige Lösung. // &! Müllers Memo: Der Kapitalismus funktioniert nicht mehr - Die Weltwirtschaft leidet immer noch stark unter den Folgen der Krise von 2008. Der Hauptgrund: Die Unternehmen investieren viel weniger als früher.
business  confidence  trustagent  trust  GFC  recovery  deleveraging  global  imbalances  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Europe  ECB  economic  history  IMF  austerity  OECD  business  investment  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  UK  Wall  Street  Germany  France  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  globalisation  flat  world  globalization  savings  glut  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  unintended  consequences  Taper  USA  Fed  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  lost  decade  lost  generation  youth  unemployment  precarious  work  Precariat  Service  Sector  Jobs  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Industrial  Revolution  Future  of  Software  Is  Eating  The  automation  Robotics  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  algorithm  Super  Rich  1%  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  living  wage  working  poor  Exportweltmeister  crony  capitalism  exploitation  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  consumer  confidence  demographic  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  secular  stagnation  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Mayer und sein Buch "Die neue Ordnung des Geldes" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Je mehr ich mich damit beschäftigte", erzählt er, "desto klarer wurde mir, dass das ein Problem im System ist." [...] "Wir haben die erste Runde der Krise bekämpft, aber wir kommen nicht mehr raus aus der Politik des billigen Geldes." [...] Gold ist für ihn ein "barbarischer Rohstoff", der im Modell der Österreichischen Schule eigentlich nur als Ersatz für das nötige Vertrauen der Bürger in eine Währung fungiere. Dennoch müsse die Geldmenge natürlich begrenzt werden. Den Banken und Staaten will Mayer deshalb jeden Zugriff auf die Schöpfung neuen Geldes entziehen. Er spricht von einem "Aktivgeldsystem".
book  GFC  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  BIS  IMF  Fed  academia  economic  history  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  LTRO  TLTRO  Bailout  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  transmission  mechanism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  fiat  currency  economic  model  economics  macroeconomics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Share prices across Europe continue to slide
'Monetary morphine' [...] one of the big concerns among investors was the ending of the Fed's monetary stimulus in the US. "As the monetary morphine has started to wear off the patient has come to realise that a lot of the old problems still remain, and yesterday's poor US data helped trigger a rather extreme reaction in not only the stock markets but bond markets too, as complacent investors rushed to hedge themselves. "In essence, investors are asking the question with respect to the recent recovery about whether this is as good as it gets, which rather explains the slump in the oil price, bond yields and stock markets,"
Taper  recovery  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  distortion  economic  history  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  Europe  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  Pact  monetary  policy  productivity  output  gap  policy  folly  policy  error  uncertainty  business  confidence  business  investment  ZIRP  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  consumer  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  Abenomics  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  hunt  for  yield 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Henrik Müller über Wirtschaftswachstum 2014: Die Pessimisten sind los - SPIEGEL ONLINE
GDP  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  2014  economic  history  digital  economy  happiness  index  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  Age  digital  artist  digital  content  content  creator  New  academia  academics  Wikipedia  freemium  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  lost  generation  lost  decade  Year  of  Code  White-collar  Blue-collar  hybrid  work  workless  6-hour  work  day  workforce  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  productivity  output  gap  Silicon  Valley  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  disposable  income  leisure  time  Robert  Skidelsky  volunteering  volunteer  maximisation  of  happiness  Jack  of  All  Trades  Future  Future  of  book  Tim  Ferriss  work  life  balance  worklife  underemployed  self-employment  freelance  freelancing  complexity  unknown  unknowns  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  Europe  UK  USA  PIGS  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  Super  Cycle  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  Japan  BOE  Fed  ECB  Open  Source  Linux  GitHub  BOJ  sharing  economy  less  more  zeitgeist  generational  change  Millennials  generationy  Consumerism  digital  digital  consume 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
- Startups - George Zachary of Charles River Ventures - TWiST #237 - YouTube
interesting point about deflationary pressures ... ... min 59 - re-training of workforce - for the workplaces of the future. // min 1:00:00 social divide between the havs and the havs not. // education has to marry (50/50) liberal arts and practical skill sets for the future. mandatory will have to be technology basics and programming intro.
deflation  deflationary  technological  history  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  volatility  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  QE  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  competitive  advantage  offshoring  outsourcing  comparative  advantage  comparative-advantage  competitiveness  education  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  CAPEX  competitive  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  Year  of  Code  war  for  talent  San  Francisco  Silicon  Valley  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Venture  Capital  VC  workplace  workforce  Charles  River  Ventures  urbanisation  urban  planning  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Palo  Alto  Public  Career  Politicians  Politics  transparency  communication  language  Vision  accountability  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  immigration  emigration  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  society  social  mobility  income  mobility  leadership  education  MOOC  practical  skills  practical  skill  set 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
BIS Slams "Market Euphoria", Finds "Puzzling Disconnect" Between Economy And Market | Zero Hedge
"... it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally....  Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions.   As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking the long-term view. Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer.  Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end. [...] " Never before have central banks tried to push so hard."
short-term  thinking  short-term  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Wall  Street  WallStreet  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  2014  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  liquidity  trap  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  faultlines  financial  market  productivity  output  gap  fiscal  stimulus  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  skill-biased  technological  change  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  infrastructure  investment  corporate  governance  public  good  public  interest  public  investment  Career  Politicians  Politics  democracy  Democratic  Process  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  stakeholder  shareholder  shareholder  value  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  industrial  policy  energy  policy  fiscal  policy  education  policy  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Today's Good News From Japan Is Terrible - Bloomberg View
uroda is finding that his monetary largess isn't boosting credit creation as hoped. Inflation, yes, as Japan imports more energy with a weaker yen. But the kind of monetary multiplier effect the BOJ hoped to unleash by now remains elusive, as the experience of Mizuho Financial Group and Japan’s other two biggest banks demonstrate. All three are forecasting a drop in earnings for this year as loan growth loses momentum and returns from stock investments wane. Kuroda is a respected economist who's staked his entire legacy on ending Japan's deflation. What's more, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe isn't coming through with sweeping structural reforms to boost consumer demand and business confidence. However unfairly, that puts the onus on Kuroda. It also places Japan in uncharted territory. Will bond traders sit back passively if the BOJ adds lots more stimulus to the economy? It's impossible to tell. + http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/abenomics-new-monetary-policy/
BOJ  QE  ZIRP  Japan  lostdecade  lost  decade  2014  deflationary  deflation  trust  trustagent  confidence  Kuroda  Put  Greenspan-Put  Greenspan  Put  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  Nikkei  JPY  faultlines  global  imbalances  Fed  Taper  Janet  Yellen  Abenomics  Shinzo  Abe  fiscal  stimulus  accommodative  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
In brief, there is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the “secular stagnation” many economists feared after World War II. [...] The stability of prices and output masked an underlying unsustainable growth in leverage. [...] Our current episode of deleveraging will eventually end, which will shift the IS curve back to the right. But if we have effective financial regulation, as we should, it won’t shift all the way back to where it was before the crisis. Or to put it in plainer English, during the good old days demand was supported by an ever-growing burden of private debt, which we neither can nor should expect to resume; as a result, demand is going to be lower even once the crisis fades. [...] our current situation may well go on much longer than anyone currently imagines.
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september 2013 by asterisk2a
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