asterisk2a + 2014 + bubble   45

What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Disenfranchised Voters and the Rise of Radical Populism - YouTube
inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  Gini  coefficient  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  2015  Gerechtigkeit  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  Jeremy  Corbyn  Labour  Party  Conservative  Party  David  Cameron  dogma  neoliberalism  neoliberal  political  economy  political  theory  social  tension  social  change  Bernie  Sanders  European  Union  Brexit  Grexit  Schengen  Agreement  UK  Germany  Polarisation  populism  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  corporate  media  propaganda  reframing  framing  PR  spin  doctor  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  deregulation  TTIP  self-regulation  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  democracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  Opportunism  opportunist  secular  stagnation  trickle-down  economics  AfD  UKIP  NPD  Xenophobia  Antisemitismus  antisemitism  European  Election  2014  campaign  promises  investment  banking  Schuldenbremse  Pact  constituency  Angela  Merkel  social  cohesion  social  contract  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  working  poor  debt  debt  stagnation  inequality  social  state  precar 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
John Ralston Saul: Moving Beyond Globalism - YouTube
Deregulators & the people behind intellectual cleansing (ie Larry Summers vs Elizabeth Warren back in deregulation time of Clinton&Bush No. 2), have to be held responsible; economic thought; model, thinking, trickle-down, globalisation, no oversight & consumer protection // capitalism & globalisation are not self limiting // GFC is a symptom, Oil crisis in 70/80s, dot.com, world com, enron // globalisation (trade) doesnt solve growth problem // London banking is soufflé with no hard items (no real wealth creation within economy (income growth)) // shift money to who will spend it (re:bailout) // banks & rootless tax evaders global corps have no shared economic interest // "the globalist model" will work everywhere else, according to the IMF/World Bank, democracy will work in the Middle East. said the same people from the same school of thought // globalisation created oligopolies, not more competition! // climate change=investment w ROI // AfD=symptom // added value, no comp on price
GFC  recovery  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  corporatism  trickle-down  economics  globalisation  globalization  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  economic  cycle  economic  growth  income  growth  Super  Rich  1%  Gini  coefficient  western  world  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  bailout  gesellschaft  social  tension  social  cohesion  Bank  IMF  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  duopoly  oligarchy  oligopoly  oligopol  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  populism  propaganda  AfD  UKIP  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  European  Election  2014  society  Debt  Super  bubble  bond  bubble  jubilee  restructuring  haircut  sovereign  crisis  monetisation  monetization  consumer  household  debtoverhang  private  public  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  intellectual  honesty  climate  change  pollution  value  creation  added  value  middle  class  income  distribution  disposable  income  income  mobility  social  mobility  education  policy  vocational  education  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  differentiate  differentiation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Finanzsystem: "Dieser Crash wird in die Geschichte eingehen" - YouTube
>> nichts substanzielles geaendert nach 2008. // min 10 Muendiger Anleger, ZIRP and NIRP >> Papierwerte nichts mehr wert. &! Bildung! Investment in Bildung. &! Staatliche Rente, Private Rente, Betriebliche Rente. Rister und Ruerup Rente nichts wert. &! Germany - Altersarmut und Niedriglohnsektor &! Altersversorge ist eine wette auf die Zeit ... was hat in 30-40 jahre noch wert? Stabil und ueberschaubare risiken nur in Sachwerten (nicht Papier). &! Exportweltmeister - zeit ist limited. Deutschlands 'aufschwung' wird auch in ein paar jahren wieder vorbei sein. &! Endspiel. 2008 war das einlaeuten ... Systemkriese! &! Werte - Geld macht nicht Gluecklich. 15% Rendite auch nicht. - Menschlichkeit - Wir - muss wieder zurueckkehren. In das Grab kannst du nichts hinterlassen. Geld arbeitet nicht, Menschen arbeiten! Wandel kommt nicht von oben, von der elite, ... kommt von der Mitte der Gesellschaft. &! ungedeckte Geldsysteme. &! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmCoCHZkiFs
GFC  book  lost  decade  lost  generation  Debt  Super  Cycle  jubilee  economic  history  fiat  currency  trust  confidence  Bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  ZIRP  NIRP  continual  education  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  hunt  for  yield  Altersarmut  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  sovereign  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  social  safety  net  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  Universal  Basic  Income  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  sustainability  sustainable  equity  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  monetary  union  monetary  system  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  European  European  European  Election  2014  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  status  quo  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  stakeholder  interest  groups 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
The Meteoric Acceleration in Series A Valuations
Series A valuations have doubled in 6 mo's, passing median Series B valuations from 10 yrs ago, acc to @ttunguz; the valuation explosion is likely due to capital tripling within the Seed fund raising market; if the trend continues & A replaces B, then Seed is the new A. ... // is it A: Maturity of New Economy business case. or B: hunt for yield. or C: increased occurrence of soft-landing/acquihire. or D: FOMO. or E: Increased cost for Start-ups to reach next business/product stage due to crowding and competition for talent. or F: All of the above. & http://pando.com/2014/11/03/neas-jon-sakoda-its-not-just-startups-vcs-would-be-wise-to-prepare-for-leaner-times/ & http://pando.com/2014/11/05/whats-beneath-the-recent-spike-in-series-a-valuations/
Silicon  Valley  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculation  speculative  Wall  Street  Super  Rich  1%  distortion  asset  allocation  FOMO  2014  POMO  monetary  policy  TARP  Bailout  failure  acqui-hire  acquihire 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Capitalism in Crisis Amid Slow Growth and Growing Inequality - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself? [...] The buzzword is "inclusion" and it refers to a trait that Western industrialized nations seem to be on the verge of losing: the ability to allow as many layers of society as possible to benefit from economic advancement and participate in political life. & http://youtu.be/hPPBYNKmuWc?t=3m52s IMF talking about over 70% of EU banks are Zombie Banks.
Japan  economic  history  GFC  recovery  greatrecession  2014  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Abenomics  Richard  Koo  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  structural  deficit  liquidity  trap  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  disposable  income  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  deleveraging  NPL  zombie  banks  business  investment  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  balance  sheet  recession  creditcrunch  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  excess  Bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  unintended  consequences  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TARP  LTRO  TLTRO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  IMF  BIS  Europe  UK  USA 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
ModCloth Hit By Second Round Of Layoffs | TechCrunch
ModCloth confirmed the new layoffs to TechCrunch, explaining that the company was affected by a broader downturn in the retailer sector. [...] [... add student debt took over credit card debt this year in total. and consumer spending is a bell weather and biggest part of US economy ... NastyGal layed off people recently too and cited persistent downturn in revenue and some employees cited not a great environment inside of NastyGal, more party than work(?!) ... both companies are falling into the non-essential spending categories/more into "I treatme with this." category for millennials and geny ... further that teams are being relocated away from pricey SF/Silicon Valley is rational, decreasing operational costs, lengthening runway by lowering Burn rate.] ... & http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-29/consumer-spending-in-u-s-falls-for-first-time-in-six-months.html & http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-consumer-spending-increased-0-5-in-august-1411993899
ModCloth  NastyGal  Retail  e-commerce  disposable  income  USA  recovery  2014  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  Taper  equity  bubble  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  zombie  consumer  debtoverhang  deleveraging  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  working  poor  Millennials  generationy  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Alan Greenspan on what's wrong with the world economy - Newsnight - YouTube
secular  stagnation  alangreenspan  Alan  Greenspan  recovery  GFC  2014  ZIRP  liquidity  trap  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Europe  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  Germany  policy  folly  policy  error  IMF  Makers  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  equity  bubble  Thomas  Piketty  book  Jens  Weidmann 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Jon Stewart on Alibaba 'The communists have beaten us at capitalism' $baba - YouTube
risk carried by shareholders. shady, intransparent, no sheriff for a town that does not exist. ... sounds like something big to hit the fan, maybe, eventually. possible. black swan event?
Alibaba  IPO  oversight  regulators  regulation  China  Silicon  Valley  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Patriarchy  Jack  Ma  corporatism  conglomerate  blackswan  risk  taking  behavioral  finance  Group  behaviour  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  2014 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Farewell to the mother of all depressions
[ THE RECOVERY, THE GLASS IS HALF FULL. PERIOD. ]But nonetheless many will be slightly depressed that although the service economy is now just under 3% bigger than it was at the peak, manufacturing is still more than 7% smaller, and the production industries as a whole have been diminished by 11%. As I have bored on about for a while, although it is heart-warming to see UK manufacturing growing right now, there has been no rebalancing of the economy back towards the makers. Also, within services, the contribution of shoppers to the recovery remains immense - and the retail trade made the biggest contribution to the latest quarter's services surge. That suggests we may be at a premature end to households' attempts to strengthen their finances and pay down debts - and shows that growth in the economy remains perilously sensitive to the cost of money.
UK  recovery  greatrecession  2014  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  zombie  consumer  debtoverhang  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  greatdepression  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  underemployed  IMF  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  London  economies  of  agglomeration  Aberdeen  industrial  policy  comparative  advantage  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  tax  code  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  tax  credit  tax  free  income  GFC  creditcrisis  creditcrunsh  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  manufacturing  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  reflation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  household  debt  economic  history 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Stephanie Hare on the UK economy - Newsnight - YouTube
>> how many jobs have been lost regarding to banking in london and adjoining businesses ... thousands. thousands of hours of productivity gone (high charges for the hours). forever. = productivity and output gap || and how many times had osborne now moved forward expected savings and targets in time ... every year. || it will not get better as they travel (still) on the same path that leads to nowhere safe. still heading to the cliff. same direction. same speed.
secular  stagnation  flat  world  UK  living  standard  cost  of  living  wage  stagnation  minimum  wage  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  exploitation  wages  productivity  output  gap  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  service  economy  service  industry  Services  economics  economic  history  academia  academics  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Public  knowledge  worker  workless  underemployed  employment  Politics  recovery  London  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  2014  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  low-income  working  class  workforce  education  policy  White-collar  Future  of  Work  flexible  Zero  Hour  Contract  Blue-collar  behavioral  economics  corporatism  capitalism  globalisation  globalization  Debt  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  crisis  austerity  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  consumer  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  housing  market  bubble  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Toff  lost  decade  lost  generation  stagnation 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Henrik Müller über Wirtschaftswachstum 2014: Die Pessimisten sind los - SPIEGEL ONLINE
GDP  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  2014  economic  history  digital  economy  happiness  index  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  Age  digital  artist  digital  content  content  creator  New  academia  academics  Wikipedia  freemium  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  deflation  deflationary  lost  generation  lost  decade  Year  of  Code  White-collar  Blue-collar  hybrid  work  workless  6-hour  work  day  workforce  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  productivity  output  gap  Silicon  Valley  education  policy  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  disposable  income  leisure  time  Robert  Skidelsky  volunteering  volunteer  maximisation  of  happiness  Jack  of  All  Trades  Future  Future  of  book  Tim  Ferriss  work  life  balance  worklife  underemployed  self-employment  freelance  freelancing  complexity  unknown  unknowns  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  Europe  UK  USA  PIGS  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  Super  Cycle  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  Japan  BOE  Fed  ECB  Open  Source  Linux  GitHub  BOJ  sharing  economy  less  more  zeitgeist  generational  change  Millennials  generationy  Consumerism  digital  digital  consume 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Drowning in venture capital, mobile startups are waging unsustainable price wars | PandoDaily
upside of this up-cycle/up-business cycle? everyone with a little bit of chops and a MVP with little bit of traction can get capital. Downside? Everyone spends their capital. Would never happen in a down cycle. Down cycles are great, you've got more time to build a great team, product and brand. .... "[L]ook at ecommerce 2.0 companies like Fab and EcoMom who blew millions in capital acquiring customers at unsustainable rates, hoping for some magic lifetime customer value to justify the spending. (It didn’t.) “There’s a tension between growing fast enough and having a disastrous bottom line,” Jeff Clavier, Founder of SoftTech VC, says. Clavier was an early investor in Fab, among others playing this game. “If you don’t have growth you’re stuck, but if you have growth with economics not viable in the long term, [you’re making] a real bet that you’ll be funded nevertheless.” [...] companies aren’t developing a sustainable business model. [Freemium works better with Software Product.]
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  VC  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  growth  round  Uber  Lyft  Fab.com  sustainable  sustainability  customer  acquisition  customer  retention  2014  asset  bubble  bubble  Silicon  Valley  Palo  Alto  San  Francisco  business  model  business  plan  user  experience  user  expectations  Amazon  Zappos  free  freemium  SAAS  on-demand  mobile  services  Industry  mobile  first  Uber  for  X  Groupon  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  London  Start-Up  Scene  me  too  price  war  commoditization  commodity  business  differentiation  differentiate  brand  brands  branding  indefensible  values  defensible  values  business  management  management  economics  frictionless  friction  rackspace  training  your  customer  growth  crutch  growth  hacker  traction  Value  Proposition  long-term  thinking  long-term  view 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
BIS Slams "Market Euphoria", Finds "Puzzling Disconnect" Between Economy And Market | Zero Hedge
"... it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally....  Despite the euphoria in financial markets, investment remains weak. Instead of adding to productive capacity, large firms prefer to buy back shares or engage in mergers and acquisitions.   As history reminds us, there is little appetite for taking the long-term view. Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer.  Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms. Or to address balance sheet problems head-on during a bust when seemingly easier policies are on offer. The temptation to go for shortcuts is simply too strong, even if these shortcuts lead nowhere in the end. [...] " Never before have central banks tried to push so hard."
short-term  thinking  short-term  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Wall  Street  WallStreet  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  2014  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  liquidity  trap  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  faultlines  financial  market  productivity  output  gap  fiscal  stimulus  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  skill-biased  technological  change  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  infrastructure  investment  corporate  governance  public  good  public  interest  public  investment  Career  Politicians  Politics  democracy  Democratic  Process  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  stakeholder  shareholder  shareholder  value  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  industrial  policy  energy  policy  fiscal  policy  education  policy  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - 'No wage rises' until jobless rate falls to 5% says MPC member
Martin Weale said there may be more spare capacity in the economy than policymakers had previously estimated. +++ Bank of England 'puzzled' by productivity gap - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27857472 >> London Finance Centre Canary Wharf drove up productivity in the run up to the 2008 GFC :: UK workforce as a whole, lacking skills for the future, thus the productivity gap; Mobile Creative, Mobile Creatives, skill-biased technological change, knowledge worker, White-collar Worker, Blue-collar Worker. Year of Code is too late and a drop/tea-cup in the ocean. College needs to offer Computer Science Degrees (Technichal College), not just University. College's offers courses as "Beauty Technicians." Services Industry that does NOT scale. A locals hairdressers service can not be exported, sold and consumed in other countries. Period.
spare  capacity  output  gap  UK  productivity  recovery  2014  BOE  economic  history  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unemployment  structural  unemployment  economy  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  Impediments  faultlines  structural  imbalance  productivity  gap  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  skill-biased  technological  change  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  workforce  Year  of  Code  21stcentury  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  education  Higher  formal  education  business  education  education  bubble  un-college  College  scaling  scale  microeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  macroprudential  policy  microprudential  regulation  Public  interest  retraining  STEM  education  policy  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  accountability  Politics  transparency  democracy  Democratic  Process  free  press  free  speech  pluralistic  society  plurality  pluralism  freedom  of  press  debate  discourse 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Bank of England’s 'slack' approach leaves economy at risk - Telegraph
There were 115,000 UK housing completions in 2013, almost a record peacetime low, compared with the 240,000 new homes needed each year just to meet the rise in household numbers hard-wired into our demography. This disgraceful shortage, and the government’s now long-past-its-sell-by-date Help-to-Buy scheme, is the reason prices are up 9.1pc across the UK over the last year and 17.1pc higher in London. And where house price inflation goes, economy-wide inflation eventually follows. While agreeing with Carney’s house-building analysis, I don’t agree the Bank can’t do more to rein in a market now in danger of spiralling out of control. [...] [A] development we’ll live to regret. +++ IMF warns UK government over housing bubble risk --- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27731567 +++ PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS WEAK. << skill-biased technological change, capital skills, skill, skills, knowledge worker, White-collar Worker, Blue-collar Worker, workforce, Mobile Creative, Mobile Creatives,
property  bubble  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Mark  Carney  BOE  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  fiscal  policy  GeorgeOsborne  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  2014  2015  general  election  2015  UK  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  IMF  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  productivity  skill-biased  technological  change  capital  skills  skill  skills  knowledge  worker  White-collar  Blue-collar  workforce  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  globalisation  globalization  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  World  Flat  competitive  advantage  competitive  competitiveness  comparative-advantage  comparative  advantage  Year  of  Code  practical  skill  set  practical  skills 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
capitalism  in  crisis  Europe  Japan  USA  deflation  deflationary  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  ECB  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  recovery  2014  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  macroeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  financial  repression  New  Normal  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  crony  capitalism  corporatism  corporate  governance  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  history  fiat  currency  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  confidence  hunt  for  yield  Politics  Thomas  Piketty  book  Robert  Reich  Robert  Skidelsky  josephstiglitz  Joseph  Stiglitz  financial  capitalism  asset  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  1%  Super  Rich  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  Gini  coefficient  Democratic  Process  democracy  European  Council  Election  2014  European  Election  2014  skill-biased  technological  change  Blue-collar  Worker  knowledge  White-collar  Worker  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  disposable  income  tax  free  income  tax  code  tax  credit  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  ethics  social  social  m 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Mini-Wohnung in London mit hoher Miete alarmiert Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
London is a different country than UK ex-London. PERIOD. As is SF, LA, NY compared to USA as a whole. UK needs support for 2nd London, ie Manchester surroundings. That is why BBC moved parts of its operations to Manchester, creating the MediaCity. It was a politically motivated and macroprudential influenced decision as well as microeconomic decision for BBC Operations (lower wage demands, lower operating cost). ""Für durchschnittliche Mieter dürfte es nur ein schwacher Trost sein, dass in London auch die Superreichen inzwischen Mondpreise für Immobilien zahlen müssen. So hat ein privater Käufer für eine Penthouse-Wohnung im vornehmen Londoner Stadtteil Knightsbridge kürzlich 140 Millionen Pfund (knapp 171 Millionen Euro) bezahlt. Angesichts solcher Zahlen warnte sogar der stellvertretende Direktor der Bank of England vor einer gefährlichen Blase: Das Preisniveau auf dem Grundstücksmarkt stehe in krassem Gegensatz zur derzeitigen Schwäche der britischen Wirtschaft, sagte Jon Cunliffe.
London  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  hunt  for  yield  2014  monetary  policy  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  macroprudential  policy  BOE  faultlines  economies  of  agglomeration  structural  imbalance  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  urban  planning  urbanisation  asset  bubble  recovery  UK  microeconomic  policy  microeconomies  microeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  economic  history  BBC  MediaCity  Manchester 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Draper University & Tim Draper's state of California | Launch Festival 2014 - YouTube
California is 50th in tersm of edu cost (too expensive), California spends 3% of their rev on infrastructure investments. ... It has to be really bad that they see as only solution to make it smaller. make 6. The only good thing that has CA going is the weather and that can have unintended consequences as well - extreme weather events, droughts, wildfires, flashfloods, ... http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/02/splitting-up-california + http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/eureka/sacramento-spotlight-six-californias-part-1-demographics-of-the-new-states/ + http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/economy-markets/economic-data-news/the-economic-impact-of-six-californias + http://draperuniversity.com/ ||| +++ http://youtu.be/2q8XOhm_LDE -- BOOK ! 'The race for reinvention' ""The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State"" - - IN THEIR new book, John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge explain why the state faces a historic juncture
California  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  government  spending  governance  oversight  transparency  accountability  Six  Californias  Tim  Draper  Draper  University  education  Higher  formal  education  business  education  education  bubble  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  income  inequality  Politics  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  Silicon  Valley  public  transportation  urbanisation  urban  planning  The  State  of  California  grassroots  movement  public  policy  drought  water  security  water  scarcity  water  supply  2014  San  Francisco  Los  Angeles  San  Diego  history  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Book  fiscal  policy  political  folly  political  theory  political  error  political  economy  political  science 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - When will the UK pay its way in the world?
In absolute terms it has been impossible for UK debts to fall. >> Now what was a little worrying was that the deficit on the current account reached 5.6% of GDP, or economic output, in the third quarter of 2013 and fell to just a little bit lower, 5.4%, in the fourth quarter. That 5.6% was - ahem - something of a milestone: it was the biggest quarterly deficit since records began in 1955. And it explains why the record aggregate indebtedness of the UK has been falling so slowly, and is still not much below 500% of GDP on the Mckinsey measure (though see my previous blog). [...] UK's - limp trading performance - for YEARS! ... COMPETING against BRICs, Europe, G8, ... now and in the future competing with MINT countries too ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MINT_countries ). [...] "We have not got forever to reconstruct our economy and become a bit more like the European export emperor, Germany."
UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  sovereign  crisis  private  consumer  bubble  jubilee  monetization  household  public  debtoverhang  monetisation  restructuring  austerity  current  account  deficit  economic  history  2014  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  public  policy  financial  repression  New  Normal  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  deflationary  productivity  output  gap  competitiveness  knowledge  worker  skill-biased  technological  change  skill  capital  skills  London  White-collar  Blue-collar  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  value  creation  Industrial  globalisation  globalization  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  21stcentury  BRIC  MINT  Europe  free  trade  Germany  exports  export 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Today's Good News From Japan Is Terrible - Bloomberg View
uroda is finding that his monetary largess isn't boosting credit creation as hoped. Inflation, yes, as Japan imports more energy with a weaker yen. But the kind of monetary multiplier effect the BOJ hoped to unleash by now remains elusive, as the experience of Mizuho Financial Group and Japan’s other two biggest banks demonstrate. All three are forecasting a drop in earnings for this year as loan growth loses momentum and returns from stock investments wane. Kuroda is a respected economist who's staked his entire legacy on ending Japan's deflation. What's more, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe isn't coming through with sweeping structural reforms to boost consumer demand and business confidence. However unfairly, that puts the onus on Kuroda. It also places Japan in uncharted territory. Will bond traders sit back passively if the BOJ adds lots more stimulus to the economy? It's impossible to tell. + http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/abenomics-new-monetary-policy/
BOJ  QE  ZIRP  Japan  lostdecade  lost  decade  2014  deflationary  deflation  trust  trustagent  confidence  Kuroda  Put  Greenspan-Put  Greenspan  Put  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  Nikkei  JPY  faultlines  global  imbalances  Fed  Taper  Janet  Yellen  Abenomics  Shinzo  Abe  fiscal  stimulus  accommodative  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank Open to Significant ECB Stimulus in June if 2016 Inflation Forecasts Lowered - WSJ.com
BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  PIGS  recovery  2014  ZIRP  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  NIRP  monetary  stimulus  stimulus  economic  history  deflation  deflationary  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  long-term  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  unemployment  Europe  Career  Politicians  IMF  MarioDraghi  participation  rate  productivity  Germany  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  structural  deficit  negative  deposit  rate  deposit  facility  overnight  deposit  facility 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: The Changing Nature of Middle Class Work
The economy is changing in structural ways that affect not just the job market but the nature of work itself. If we ask, what is work?, the conventional answer is tasks that somebody will pay us to do. This is true, but it doesn't address why someone is willing to pay us. The answer is to create value. ... [ Skills, not Expertise. ] ...... As technology's ability to replace costly human labor moves from the factory floor to the service sector, the nature of middle class work is changing. [ IBM's company wide Pivot over +10 years from HW to Services and Software Company. With the accompanying downsizing. ] ... Jobs that can be learned in a few hours are prone to being replaced by machines. [...] The protected sectors beset by soaring costs (healthcare, higher education, major weaponry programs, finance, etc.) will undergo the creative destruction of technology-based productivity gains for the reason that they are already unaffordable, not just to households but to the nation.
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
The Bank of England cannot fine-tune house prices - Telegraph
a home is not an investment asset. or something to buy for your 'diversified' pension pot. + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27312876 - The Scottish housing market continues to be "marred" by weak supply and high demand, according to surveyors. + // http://www.cnbc.com/id/101653695
UK  2014  property  bubble  asset  bubble  Mark  Carney  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Supply  and  Demand  policy  folly  policy  error  public  policy  Career  Politicians  unintended  consequences  inequality  Gini  coefficient  living  standard  post-recession  housing  market  mortgage  market  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  QE  NIRP  wage  stagnation  living  wage  democracy  Millennials  zombie  consumer  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  generationy  unfair  babyboomers  ethics  morals  morality  GFC 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Piketty: on tour with the 'rock-star economist' -video | Business | theguardian.com
Thomas Piketty. funny thing, at this meeting in min 3. no handshake, no spreading germs. less sick days. ;) ... +++ Faisal Islam on The Default Line - video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2013/aug/16/faisal-islam-default-line-video || + Michael Lewis: the stock market is rigged – video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2014/apr/30/michael-lewis-the-stock-market-is-rigged-video-interview ||
Thomas  Piketty  Robert  Reich  Book  documentary  Gini  coefficient  post-recession  post-crisis  GVC  greatrecession  greatdepression  recovery  2014  income  inequality  income  mobility  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  social  mobility  low-income  income  growth  income  distribution  tax  free  income  disposable  income  crony  capitalism  greed  Super  Rich  corporate  governance  journalism  journalismus  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  economic  history  long-term  thinking  accountability  governance  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  policy-makers  lostdecade  lostgeneration  long-term  unemployment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Europe  USA  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  inequality  Faisal  Islam  generational  contract  Environmental  Movement  disaster  Millennials  generationy  babyboomers  HFT  WallStreet  toobigtofail 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
British austerity is no model for the rest of the world - FT.com
the pace of fiscal contraction has slowed over the past two years. This means that the brake on growth caused by fiscal policy is becoming more attenuated. So the turnround in growth over the past 18 months is as much evidence against austerity as it is pro-austerity. Second, faced with the potential damage caused by the deficit reduction to demand and economic growth, the UK government has been forced to introduce a number of extraordinary measures to support lending. [...] It certainly should not, however, be seen as any kind of inspiration to other companies or countries. + http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10807988/Rapid-rate-rises-could-throw-UK-back-into-recession.html
Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  austerity  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  recovery  2014  GFC  zombie  consumer  Debt  Super  Cycle  private  sovereign  crisis  consumer  bubble  monetization  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  election  campaign  promises  general  election  2015  election2015  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  productivity  wage  stagnation  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  financial  repression  New  Normal  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  jubilee  public  household  debtoverhang  liquidity-trap  economic  history  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  housing  market  Supply  Supply  Shortfall  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  unconventional  monetary  policy  policy-makers  policy  makers  democracy  Politics  UK 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Amazingly, London’s property boom may still have years to run - Quartz
Housing shortage. ( Supply ) Period. + British unemployment fell to a five-year low - + mortage market may come under pressure when ZIRP ends and the zombie consumer can't server the rising interest payments.
UK  recovery  2014  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  QE  BOE  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  ZIRP  Mark  Carney  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  zombie  consumer  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  austerity  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50
Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment. + Fed took this week extra meeting. for what, nobody knows - only speculations.
stockmarekt  WallStreet  warrenbuffet  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Fed  ZIRP  QE  BOE  ECB  OMT  NIRP  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  2014  GFC  economic  history 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
YouTube's Secret Algorithm - Computerphile - YouTube
engineering ... iteration, iteration, a/b testing, ... and sometimes you have to experiment with a small user base sample, to discover something new - not so obvious user behaviour. ala Occrams Razor theory, sometimes the simplest thing is the best and most elegant solution. ... only hands on experience and mentorship can teach you such things. not college degree. no masters degree. only real world application.
YouTube  Google  Search  algorithms  algorithm  PageRank  monopoly  pageviews  engagement  short-form  content  content  distribution  throwaway  content  digital  content  content  creator  digital  economy  paid  content  content  ID  micro  content  Niche  Watch  Time  Video  Viral  Video  gaming  the  system  SEO  content  network  digital  natives  digital  artist  MCN  YouTube  Maker  Studios  Videoamt  Social  Media  publishing  publishing  2.0  self-publishing  Mediakraft  a/b-testing  product  iteration  engineering  analytics  Big  Data  experimentation  complexity  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  education  Higher  education  bubble  formal  education  programmers  programming  Year  of  the  Code  Year  of  Coding  2014 
april 2014 by asterisk2a
Hedge Fund Boss: "We Are Witnessing Our Second Tech Bubble"
+ http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/magazine/if-a-bubble-bursts-in-palo-alto-does-it-make-a-sound.html "There are hundreds more examples of big companies spending eye-watering sums for acquisitions, firms going public at fat valuations, tech stocks reaching high highs and venture-capital firms tossing money at start-ups. That’s not to mention the cultural afterbirth of all that cash, from the medieval-themed weddings to the office ball pits. (If HBO sees fit to satirize your corner of the economy, things have probably gone a bit weird.) Meanwhile, the rest of the country slouches along, unemployment high, wages stagnant, credit tight. But Silicon Valley feels like a foam party." [...] “Valuations are at extreme levels because you cannot get a decent return on your money doing anything else,”
asset  bubble  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Venture  Capital  Marc  Andreessen  IPO  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  liquidity-trap  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  OMT  ECB  BOE  NIRP  deflationary  deflation  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  2014  Facebook  Airbnb  Dropbox  Box.com  California  San  Francisco  Los  Angeles  Palo  Alto  Fred  Wilson 
april 2014 by asterisk2a
Chris Cook crunches the numbers - Newsnight - YouTube
what if current productivity numbers are - as good as it gets. and the productivity high from 2006-7-8 was hugely inflated by london, super rich, banking and financial services industry!? thus what if we are running currently at full speed possible although it looks (in comparison to 06/07/08 slower) so slow. thus ... austerity needs to go on for much longer to eliminate budget deficit and possibility of inflation and wage inflation spiral is nearer to the horizon than what the BOE (with its ZIRP and QE policy) has it scheduled to arrive and thus then forced to hike rates earlier than though and debt servicing will be more expensive ... for gov and debt holder and mortgage holders.
UK  budget2014  budget  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  recovery  2014  economic  history  academia  academics  output-gap  output  gap  Productivity  unemployment  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  mortgage  market  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Many Britons 'fear mortgage arrears'
Campbell Robb, chief executive of Shelter, which helps a million people a year with housing problems, said that despite recent discussion of an economic recovery, a combination of high housing costs, wage freezes, and rising food and energy bills had created a "nightmare scenario" for many families. He said: "It's a worrying sign of the times that so many are starting the New Year worried about how they'll pay their rent or mortgage in 2014. "Unless they get help, some of the families struggling now could face the very real prospect of losing their home this year."
working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  recovery  2013  2014  asset  bubble  mortgage  market  mortage  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  BOE  UK  monetary  policy  complexity  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  zombie  consumer  private  debt  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  Consumerism  fiscal  policy  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  error  policy  folly  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Mark  Carney  political  folly  Career  Politicians  Toff  political  error 
january 2014 by asterisk2a

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