asterisk2a + 2014 + mark   10

The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Stephanie Hare on the UK economy - Newsnight - YouTube
>> how many jobs have been lost regarding to banking in london and adjoining businesses ... thousands. thousands of hours of productivity gone (high charges for the hours). forever. = productivity and output gap || and how many times had osborne now moved forward expected savings and targets in time ... every year. || it will not get better as they travel (still) on the same path that leads to nowhere safe. still heading to the cliff. same direction. same speed.
secular  stagnation  flat  world  UK  living  standard  cost  of  living  wage  stagnation  minimum  wage  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  exploitation  wages  productivity  output  gap  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  service  economy  service  industry  Services  economics  economic  history  academia  academics  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Public  knowledge  worker  workless  underemployed  employment  Politics  recovery  London  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  2014  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  low-income  working  class  workforce  education  policy  White-collar  Future  of  Work  flexible  Zero  Hour  Contract  Blue-collar  behavioral  economics  corporatism  capitalism  globalisation  globalization  Debt  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  crisis  austerity  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  consumer  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  housing  market  bubble  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Toff  lost  decade  lost  generation  stagnation 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Foreign Exchange Morning Update -- 13.06.14 - YouTube
++ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27825643 Bank of England hints at possible rate rise this year - the ultimate decision will be driven by data.
BOE  UK  Mark  Carney  communication  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  ZIRP  2014  recovery 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Bank of England’s 'slack' approach leaves economy at risk - Telegraph
There were 115,000 UK housing completions in 2013, almost a record peacetime low, compared with the 240,000 new homes needed each year just to meet the rise in household numbers hard-wired into our demography. This disgraceful shortage, and the government’s now long-past-its-sell-by-date Help-to-Buy scheme, is the reason prices are up 9.1pc across the UK over the last year and 17.1pc higher in London. And where house price inflation goes, economy-wide inflation eventually follows. While agreeing with Carney’s house-building analysis, I don’t agree the Bank can’t do more to rein in a market now in danger of spiralling out of control. [...] [A] development we’ll live to regret. +++ IMF warns UK government over housing bubble risk --- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27731567 +++ PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS WEAK. << skill-biased technological change, capital skills, skill, skills, knowledge worker, White-collar Worker, Blue-collar Worker, workforce, Mobile Creative, Mobile Creatives,
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - UK unemployment total falls to 2.16m, wage inflation to remain low
[threat of wage inflation spiral far off because of multiple underlying factors not allowing it measured wholly across the uk (taking the other country called london out of the picture)] - "Weak pay growth and the 'cost of living crisis' remains the Achilles heel of the economic recovery," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. "But it should not be long until we see earnings growth accelerate as the labour market continues to tighten. Pay growth should pick up in coming months, perhaps significantly." +++ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10838393/Bank-of-Englands-slack-approach-leaves-economy-at-risk.html +++ http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/03/monetary-policy-0 +++ http://youtu.be/fvTdWWUkUNM?t=2m10s
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - When will the UK pay its way in the world?
In absolute terms it has been impossible for UK debts to fall. >> Now what was a little worrying was that the deficit on the current account reached 5.6% of GDP, or economic output, in the third quarter of 2013 and fell to just a little bit lower, 5.4%, in the fourth quarter. That 5.6% was - ahem - something of a milestone: it was the biggest quarterly deficit since records began in 1955. And it explains why the record aggregate indebtedness of the UK has been falling so slowly, and is still not much below 500% of GDP on the Mckinsey measure (though see my previous blog). [...] UK's - limp trading performance - for YEARS! ... COMPETING against BRICs, Europe, G8, ... now and in the future competing with MINT countries too ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MINT_countries ). [...] "We have not got forever to reconstruct our economy and become a bit more like the European export emperor, Germany."
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
The Bank of England cannot fine-tune house prices - Telegraph
a home is not an investment asset. or something to buy for your 'diversified' pension pot. + http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27312876 - The Scottish housing market continues to be "marred" by weak supply and high demand, according to surveyors. + // http://www.cnbc.com/id/101653695
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
British austerity is no model for the rest of the world - FT.com
the pace of fiscal contraction has slowed over the past two years. This means that the brake on growth caused by fiscal policy is becoming more attenuated. So the turnround in growth over the past 18 months is as much evidence against austerity as it is pro-austerity. Second, faced with the potential damage caused by the deficit reduction to demand and economic growth, the UK government has been forced to introduce a number of extraordinary measures to support lending. [...] It certainly should not, however, be seen as any kind of inspiration to other companies or countries. + http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10807988/Rapid-rate-rises-could-throw-UK-back-into-recession.html
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
Amazingly, London’s property boom may still have years to run - Quartz
Housing shortage. ( Supply ) Period. + British unemployment fell to a five-year low - + mortage market may come under pressure when ZIRP ends and the zombie consumer can't server the rising interest payments.
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may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Many Britons 'fear mortgage arrears'
Campbell Robb, chief executive of Shelter, which helps a million people a year with housing problems, said that despite recent discussion of an economic recovery, a combination of high housing costs, wage freezes, and rising food and energy bills had created a "nightmare scenario" for many families. He said: "It's a worrying sign of the times that so many are starting the New Year worried about how they'll pay their rent or mortgage in 2014. "Unless they get help, some of the families struggling now could face the very real prospect of losing their home this year."
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january 2014 by asterisk2a

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