asterisk2a + 2011   843

Leslie Thomas on England Riots - YouTube
Leslie Thomas // what has changed? not much. less stop and search. but root causes of londons estates that are like frances banlieues
2011  London  Riot  racism  BAME  UK  Brexit  inequality  Austerity  Gini  Coefficient  poverty  trap  working  poor  Precariat  education  policy  social  mobility  discrimination  Banlieue 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
(Founder Stories) Instagram-Backer Steve Anderson: Forget The Billion-Dollar Exits | TechCrunch
“the reality also was on Sand Hill Road everyone talks about the billion-dollar exits, and if you look at the history of the last 15 years, there has not been that many billion dollar exits … it turns out that the average exit over the last 10 years on average has been $100-million, and so I was thinking to myself well if I owned 10% of a $100-million outcome that is real money for me, and my co-founders and anybody else and so why isn’t there anybody whose capital was aligned and incented for that outcome?” // A Round is post-traction round. Decision has to be made whether to invest (A Round), dilute yourself, drive burn rate up acquiring more customers than normal rate vs cash flow positive Start-up that grows organically with rising revenues and staying cash flow positive. Fork in the road can be a credit line from VC. // VC's have to bet & have 2 invest 2 return the fund & more. Sometimes its not in the interest of the founder & company economics that got only ~<250m exit horizon.
Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  A  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Venture  Capital  2011  Silicon  Valley 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Whom The Gods Would Destroy | A Fistful Of Euros
This connection between political instability and IMF programmes in the East is becoming habitual. We have seen it in Ukraine, and we have seen it in Hungary. There is obviously something deeply wrong with the way these programmes are designed, since none of them (including Latvia) could be claimed to have achieved the objective of returning the country to robust and stable long term growth. We can only hope that what we have seen in the East will not now spread to the South, though I can’t say I am especially convinced it won’t.
Greece  PIIGS  Ukraine  politics  democracy  2011  2012  austerity  Latvia  Hungary  Romania  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  east-europe 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise treibt Zuwanderer nach Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
human catastrophe - unemployment

In der Staatsschuldenkrise sind 2011 so viele Menschen nach Deutschland gekommen wie seit 15 Jahren nicht mehr - insgesamt rund 960.000. Vor allem aus Griechenland und Spanien wanderten deutlich mehr Personen zu als in den Vorjahren.

Aus Griechenland kamen den Statistikern zufolge 90 Prozent mehr Einwanderer als im Jahr 2010, aus Spanien war es ein Plus von 52 Prozent. Ebenfalls stark zugenommen haben die Zuzüge aus den Ländern, die 2004 der EU beigetreten sind, hier gab es ein Plus von 43 Prozent.

Fast zwei Drittel der Menschen, die nach Deutschland gingen, ließen sich in nur vier Bundesländern nieder: Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bayern, Baden-Württemberg und Hessen.
Europe  migration  imigaration  Germany  2012  2011  unemployment  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge
All of this pervasive intervention most likely explains more than 90 percent of the market's positive performance this past January. Had the G6 NOT convened on swaps, had the ECB NOT launched the LTRO programs, and had Bernanke NOT expressed a continuation of zero interest rates, one wonders where the equity indices would trade today. One also wonders if the European banking system would have made it through December. Thank goodness for "coordinated action". It does work in the short-term.

... bank bailout in the shadows of unconventional monetary policy (nonstandard measures) - QE, ZIRP, LTRO,

The second unintended consequence is the impact that interventions have had on the non-G6 countries' perception of western solvency.
ZIRP  centralbanks  China  Russia  currency  debasement  currency-war  Gold  solvency  monetary  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  reflation  2012  2011  LTRO  BOJ  BOE  QE  ECB  Fed  unintended  consequences 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Court raps Cable over his £9,000 tuition charges that fail to comply with equality rules | Mail Online
Lawyers acting for Mr Hurley, from Peterborough, and Miss Moore, from Brixton, South London, had argued the tripling of fees breached human rights and equality laws.
They said the scale of the increase – from £3,290 a year to £9,000 – ran counter to the right to an education and was likely to deter poorer students.

They also claimed higher fees would discriminate against women, disabled people and ethnic minority graduates, whose lifetime earnings tend to be lower.
The judges accepted it was likely that higher fees would put off some applicants but said it was too soon to tell.

Speaking outside court, Miss Moore said: ‘For the court to recognise the Government’s actions as unlawful is a great achievement.
‘It shows it is possible to challenge decisions made by our government that have damaging effects on the future of our society.’
equality  2012  2011  folly  policy  policy-makers  politics  inequality  bubble  studentdebt  tuition  university  education  UK 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Global growth: In search of demand | The Economist
.... One would hope to see adjustment occur as former surplus countries grow into demand engines. While that process occurs only slowly, the world economy will be vulnerable to outbreaks of recession, and the risk of market interventions—including protectionism.

... The West can not hope for a domestic demand let recovery with overburdened private market and austerity at public level.

.... Debt Overhang, Balancesheet Recession (Koo), Deleveraging --> is the game in town.
economics  supply-demand  rebalancing  global-economy  global  imbalances  tradedeficit  trade  balance  QE  BOJ  debt  bubble  2011  2012  Japan 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The Way Greeks Live Now -
By many indicators, Greece is devolving into something unprecedented in modern Western experience. A quarter of all Greek companies have gone out of business since 2009, and half of all small businesses in the country say they are unable to meet payroll. The suicide rate increased by 40 percent in the first half of 2011. A barter economy has sprung up, as people try to work around a broken financial system. Nearly half the population under 25 is unemployed. Last September, organizers of a government-sponsored seminar on emigrating to Australia, an event that drew 42 people a year earlier, were overwhelmed when 12,000 people signed up. Greek bankers told me that people had taken about one-third of their money out of their accounts; many, it seems, were keeping what savings they had under their beds or buried in their backyards. One banker, part of whose job these days is persuading people to keep their money in the bank, said to me, “Who would trust a Greek bank?”
austerity  Europe  PIIGS  2012  2011  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  human  tragedy  Greece 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Das Kapitulation | ZeroHedge
The bottom line is that the ECB, directly and indirectly, is giving its governments and its banks the money that the rest of the world has been taking away.
monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  LTRO  2011  2012  ECB 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead | ZeroHedge
While his diagnosis of the balance sheet recessionary outbreak that is sweeping global economies (including China now he fears) is a useful framework for understanding ZIRP's (and monetary stimulus broadly) general inability to create a sustainable recovery, his one-size-fits-all government-borrow-and-spend to infinity (fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits) solution is perhaps becoming (just as he said it would) politically impossible to implement. In his latest missive, the Nomura economist does not hold back with the blame-bazooka for the mess we are in and face in 2012.

LTRO may rescue financial system but cannot save real economy
LTRO should be viewed in similar light as Fed’s QE1

The banks effectively used funds borrowed from the Fed to meet payment obligations. The money was not used to fund new loans.
Consequently, neither bank lending nor the money supply grew despite all the liquidity injected under QE1, and inflation and growth ...
ECB  Japan  history  EBA  Basel3  economics  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  economic-thought  outlook  Europe  deflation  deleveraging  ratingagencies  LTRO  balance  sheet  recession  ZIRP  2012  2011  richardkoo  blamegame 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Nationalismus: Europas Osten rückt nach rechts - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik
Die osteuropäischen Gesellschaften haben zwei Jahrzehnte ununterbrochener Reformen und harter Austeritätspolitik hinter sich. Nun sind die allermeisten Menschen in der Region zutiefst erschöpft, Demokratiemüdigkeit, Euro-Skeptizimus und Abneigung gegen den einst vergötterten Westen wachsen erschreckend schnell.
hungary  crisis  debt  sovereign  Europe  reform  IMF  democracy  austerity  2012  2011  GFC  east-europe  EU 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise: "Die Banken gehen den bequemen Weg" - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Die EZB lindert also kurzfristig die Not der Banken, verschärft aber das Risiko, dass es zu einer noch gefährlicheren Finanzkrise kommt?

Gerke: Ja. Die Notenbank stellt das Geld ja nicht zu Marktkonditionen zur Verfügung, sondern der Zins liegt unter der Inflationsrate, ist also viel zu billig. Die Folge ist, dass der Markt mit diesem Geld nicht effizient arbeitet. Die Banken haben keine Veranlassung, ihr riskantes Geschäftsmodell zu ändern. Dazu kommen inflationäre Risiken und das Problem, dass sich die Staaten weiterhin viel zu billig verschulden können.
policy  monetary  banks  PIIGS  2012  2011  ZIRP  ECB  LTRO 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Reuters Breakingviews: UK retains credibility despite pensions fudge - YouTube
Dec. 21 - Chris Hughes of Reuters Breakingviews says the UK government has retained its credibility even though it has compromised on public sector pensions.

- Thatcher would admire cameron and osborne for the lack of revolt (public outcry) after public sector cuts and pension cuts.
history  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  publicsector  2011  austerity  uk 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Bank of America Settles With DOJ Over Countrywide - YouTube
Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. will pay a record $335 million to compensate Countrywide Financial Corp. borrowers who were charged more for home loans based on race and
national origin. The penalty for Bank of America, which acquired Countrywide in 2008, dwarfs the $30 million total for all previous fair-lending settlements extracted by the U.S. Department of Justice. Megan Hughes reports on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
KenLewis  discrimination  2011  subprime  DOJ  settelment  CountrywideFinancial  BofA 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB's Balance Sheet Now Far Bigger Than Fed's, More Levered Than Lehman, PIIGS Exposure Up 50% In 6 Months | ZeroHedge
Bloodmberg chart of the day shows, the ECB's balance sheet is not only far greater than the Fed, at $3.2 trillion compared to $2.9 trillion for Ben Bernanke, but at 30x leverage, has the same risk as Lehman did at its peak.

“The ECB is providing liquidity and confidence to the banking system, yet all the while its own leverage and balance sheet size is hitting new highs. It seems likely that the market will begin to watch the rising leverage with interest and growing concern."

"Through its government bond buying and liquidity provision to banks, we estimate that the ECB’s exposure to weaker eurozone economies has now reached €705bn, up from €444bn in early summer – an increase of over 50% in only six months, raising fresh questions about its credibility, independence and possible losses it may face in the case of future sovereign defaults."
PIIGS  solvency  Europe  creditcrunch  liquidity-trap  liquidity  QE  SMP  leverage  2011  balancesheet  Fed  ECB 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Vickers Report implementation useless and flawed because of opaque accounting of banks
The report, launched in the wake of the financial crisis, recommended separating banks' retail business from their investment business.

Mr Cable said the government would proceed with separating the banks.

But the recommendation about the amount of capital banks should hold has been diluted, the BBC has learned. The chancellor will address MPs on Monday.

opaque accounting of banks; hedges, credit risk, CDS, derivatives, contracts, counterparty risk, non market to market accounting
and because of basel2/3 which sees sov debt as risk free asset which is used to state capital hold. but is not liquid as cash etc. etc etc.
and sov debt is not risk free
banking  UK  transparency  VickersReport  RBS  accounting  reform  regulation  FSA  BoE  2011  Glass-Steagall  Basel3 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Goldman's Take On TARGET2 And How The Bundesbank Will Suffer Massive Losses If The Eurozone Fails | ZeroHedge
However, central banks in the core countries face one specific risk that can be traced back to the TARGET2 imbalances, and this refers to the possibility that a country might decide to leave the Euro area. In such a scenario, the net claims the remaining central banks have acquired vis-à-vis that country reflect a genuine risk that would not exist without these imbalances. This could in the extreme case of a total break-up of the Euro area, and assuming that the peripheral central banks could not repay their liabilities, mean that the losses would materialise on the Bundesbank’s balance sheet.

It is only if one or several countries were to decide to leave the Euro area that the imbalances would lead to potentially significant losses beyond the risk already reflected in the current generous liquidity provision through the ECB.
ECB  2011  bundesbank  Europe  EMU  break-up 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
The Exchange-Rate Delusion - Michael Spence - Project Syndicate
Developing countries have learned over time that real income growth and employment expansion are driven by productivity gains, not exchange-rate movements. This, in turn, requires public and private investment in tangible assets, physical and telecommunications infrastructure, human capital and skills, and the knowledge and technology base of the economy.

Of course, it is possible for a country’s terms of trade to get out of line with income and productivity levels, requiring a rebalancing. But resetting the terms of trade is no substitute for tackling the structural underpinnings of productivity.

- you get what you measure, measure wrong and you get wrong policy ideas

Underinvestment has long-term costs and consequences everywhere. Excess consumption merely hides these costs temporarily.
productivity  economy  employment  history  economics  China  USA  politics  tradedeficit  policy  policy-makers  2011  income-growth  income  globalisation  global-trade  global-economy  competitiveness  competi 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
SEC Sending ‘Message’ to Corporate Heads, Levitt Says (Audio)
Dec 19, 2011
Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, says by bringing a case against former executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Securities and Exchange Commission is "sending a strong message to corporate leaders." Levitt talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance."
freddiemac  FannieMea  SEC  2011 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Banks in ‘Vicious Cycle’ With Government Cash - Bloomberg
The European Banking Authority ordered the region’s banks on Dec. 8 to raise 115 billion euros ($154 billion) by June. Faced with dwindling profits and unable to tap capital markets to sell new shares, firms may be forced to seek government help. About 70 percent of the capital requirement falls on lenders in Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal, countries struggling to convince the world they can pay their debts.
“If the Southern governments put money in their banks, their sovereign debt will go up, exacerbating their problems,” said Karel Lannoo, chief executive officer of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “Then the banks’ losses will rise because they hold the government debt. That’s a vicious cycle. It’s hard to know which one to stabilize first, the sovereign bonds or the banks.”
Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  EBA  stresstest  2011  2012 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy Can Endure Rise in Borrowing Costs: BIS - Bloomberg
Italy will be able to withstand an increase in borrowing costs for at least for a few years as its relatively long debt maturity helps mitigate the effects of record bond yields, the Bank for International Settlements said.

“Simple simulations of the debt-service costs of the Italian Treasury in different yield-curve scenarios suggests that Italy should be able to withstand elevated yields for some time, provided it retains access to the market,” the BIS said in its Quarterly Report published yesterday. “Given the relatively high average residual maturity of the Italian public debt, it would take a long time” for these yields to translate into “significant additional debt service costs.”
2011  italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  economics  econometrics 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Another Currency Runs Out: BOE Introduces "Collateral Term Repo Facility" To Deal With Sterling "Shortages" | ZeroHedge
When yet another central bank, in this case the BOE, proactively uses the word "shock" in relation to funding deficiency (in this case the GBP) if even with the phrases "contingency" and "there is currently no shortage" a brief week after the global central bank cartel did the same to assure the world of USD funding availability, it may be time to wonder i) just how bad is the global FX crunch in any currency (EUR most certainly included - see near record ECB deposit facility usage), ii) just how broken is the shadow banking system - as a reminder with Lehman it was money markets (a major component of shadow liquidity), now it is repo (smaller, but still critical component of shadow banking) that is failing and iii) when will this crisis escalate to the next logical step?
Euro  GBP  shortage  2011  currency  liquidity  BOE  ECB  Fed  shadowbanking 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Britain's economy: Into the storm | The Economist
Britain’s economy has its own home-grown problems, to which the misery on its doorstep will add. Spending power is scarce. Wage growth is running at less than half the level of inflation. Public-sector workers, who staged a large strike over the government’s pension reforms this week (see article), face a further two years of squeezed pay. Householders will be reluctant to dip deeper into their savings while their own debts are so high. That leaves Britain’s economy dependent on foreign demand. As two-fifths of exports are shipped to the euro zone, recession there will drag down Britain’s economy as well. Jobs are already being cut in London’s financial district, one of Britain’s more reliable export industries, because fees and commissions have dried up.

budget deficit was at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10
The deficit will fall to 8.4% of GDP this fiscal year.
Britain’s triple-A credit rating seems assured
plans announced imply public-spending cuts will last until 2017
UK  2011  2012  economy  austerity  recession  lostdecade  budget  deficit  creditrating  GeorgeOsborne  OBR  output-gap  slack 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
The Italian Exodus - Adriano Farano - Project Syndicate
We leave because Italy is a stagnant country, especially for its youth. According to OECD data, 90% of Italians under 24 live at home with their parents, while 28% of young people are unemployed – well above the average of 17% in other developed countries.

The reasons for high youth unemployment are well known. According to a study by the Italian Chambers of Commerce, half of working Italians got their jobs thanks to family or social connections. Certainly, introductions are important everywhere in finding a job, but in the US or the UK, for example, networking circles are comparatively open, and merit is still the main reason for recruiting or working with someone.

The World Bank ranks my country 87th in the world for ease of doing business, far behind the US (fourth), France (29th) and even Botswana (54th). This reflects a Kafka-esque bureaucracy, a high level of organized crime and corruption, and Italy’s generally conservative business culture.
Italy  competitiveness  comparative-advantage  youth  unemployment.  economy  economics  competition  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
MF Global Customers Missing $1.2 Billion Denied Committee - Bloomberg
MF Global Inc. brokerage customers, who may be missing more than $1.2 billion from their accounts, won’t be allowed to form a committee to represent their interests in bankruptcy court, a judge ruled.

“Nobody in the legislative history of this country thought about a case like this,” Lewis Kruger, a lawyer for a group of customers, argued before Glenn today. “This case may determine whether there is a commodities market in the future. I have great concern about what’s going to happen in this industry. This is a far-reaching case and it needs to have an imaginative resolution.”

“Essentially we have no more than 60 percent to give,” Kobak said at the hearing today.
The next motion the trustee will make will deal with “truing up” all customers to make sure everyone gets 60 percent of their collateral, Kobak said. It will also deal with the issue of bounced checks, which are estimated to be worth about $50 million, Kobak said.
MFGlobal  fraud  bankruptcy  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Germany’s Auction ‘Disaster’ Stirs Crisis Concern - Bloomberg
new chapter opened in this crisis. the distrust in Europe spread to the core countries.

“This auction is nothing short of a disaster for Germany,”
“If the strongest nation in Europe has this kind of difficulty raising capital, one shudders concerning the upcoming auctions in other European nations.”

“If investors do not wish to buy bunds, they do not wish to buy Europe,”
sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  Germany  confidence  trust  belguim  france  austria 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Globaler Nacktprotest: Schrei's raus, zieh dich aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Kultur
nackte tatsachen fuer aufmerksamkeit. die normale proteste nicht mehr bekommen.

OWS is ebenfalls so ein un-normaler protest
Spaniens indignitas und deren Camps sind auch un-normale proteste, fern ab der norm.
feminism  democracy  protest  2011  culture  society  occupywallstreet 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Drohende Kreditklemme: Europa geht das Geld aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
existential crisis of the "system"

die ganze Finanzbranche ist in Aufruhr. Es sei in Zukunft nicht mehr selbstverständlich, dass ein Staat seinen Haushalt über die Kapitalmärkte finanzieren könne, warnte am Montag der Präsident der Bankenverbandes, Andreas Schmitz.
Wer wissen will, was damit gemeint ist, sollte sich die verzweifelten Versuche einiger Euro-Staaten anschauen, an frisches Geld zu kommen.

Je länger die Doppelkrise bei Staaten und Banken anhält, desto mehr wird sie zur existentiellen Gefahr für die Währungsunion. Denn beide sind aufeinander angewiesen: Die Staaten brauchen flüssige Banken als Abnehmer für ihr Anleihen - und die Banken brauchen solide Staaten als Garanten für die Wertpapiere in ihren Bilanzen. Beides funktioniert derzeit nicht.
creditcrunch  2011  2012  Europe  PIIGS  capital-flight  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  uncertainty  confidence  financialmarkets 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Wall Street Unoccupied With 200,000 Job Cuts - Bloomberg
Banks, insurers and asset managers in Western Europe have been hardest hit, announcing about 105,000 dismissals this year, 66 percent more than the region’s losses in 2008 at the depths of the financial crisis, Bloomberg data show. The 50,000 job cuts in North America this year are more than twice last year’s and fewer than the 175,000 in 2008.

“These are by far my darkest days,” said Scott Schubert, 49, who was dismissed in late 2008 as a mergers-and-acquisitions banker at Jefferies, a New York-based securities firm, and has been unemployed since. “It’s harder and harder to look for a job and feel that there’s nothing there.”

“Because there are fewer jobs, people are unhappy about being stuck,” Brener said. “They don’t have options about moving, and there is a sense of feeling trapped.”

Wall Street won’t regain its lost jobs “until about 2023,” Marisa Di Natale, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in an e-mail.
finance  wallstreet  unemployment  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Bloomberg’s Harper Says Bank Exposure to Europe Clouded (Audio)
Nov 16, 2011
Bloomberg reporter Christine Harper says U.S. bank investors are being kept in the dark about exposure to European sovereign default. Harper talks with Bloomberg's Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

- ISDA - the body for CDS / Derivatives decided that greece 50% PSI (haircut) is not default,
- bc ISDA is owned by banks, if they would rule it as default scenario - everyone would have owed somebody something - which would have introduced great uncertainty, volatility, share price losses
- did it in their own interest.
= this equals to collusion in an oligopolistic market.
ISDA  CDS  derivatives  collusion  oligopol  financialmarket  Greece  default  2011  OTC  exposure  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  accounting  fraud  transparency  confidence 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy - Frustrated Entrepreneurs | Made in Germany - YouTube
The eurozone crisis shows no sign of ending. While Italy's interest rates for government bonds are rising, and prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has announced he'll step down, the country's entrepreneurs are frustrated. They feel betrayed by Italy's politicians, and they've started to protest.We meet business owner Enrico Frare, who has started a provocative newspaper ad campaign in which he is posing nude. His message is that Italy's entrepreneurs are in danger of losing the shirts off their backs -- and he's blaming what he says is Berlusconi's lack of any economic policy.
Italy  lostdecade  entrepeneurship  creditcrunch  2011  economy  sovereign  debt  crisis  entrepreneur  SME 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
JPMorgan Joins Goldman Keeping Italy Debt Risk in Dark - Bloomberg
tied together w bungee cords

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), among the world’s biggest traders of credit derivatives, disclosed to shareholders that they have sold protection on more than $5 trillion of debt globally.

JPMorgan said in its third-quarter SEC filing that more than 98 percent of the credit-default swaps the New York-based bank has written on PIIGS debt is balanced by CDS contracts purchased on the same bonds.

By contrast, Goldman Sachs discloses only what it calls “funded” exposure to PIIGS debt -- $4.16 billion before hedges and $2.46 billion after, as of Sept. 30. Those amounts exclude commitments or contingent payments, such as credit-default swaps, said Lucas van Praag, a spokesman for the bank.

“Their position is you don’t need to know the risks, which is why they’re giving you net numbers,” said Nomi Prins, “Net is only as good as the counterparties on each side of the net -- that’s why it’s misleading in a fluid, dynamic market.”
jpmorgan  goldmansachs  sovereign  debt  exposure  derivatives  2011  PIIGS  CDS  toobigtofail  counterpartyrisk  citigroup  bankofamerica  boa  morganstanley  USA  Europe  lehmanbrothers  crisis  analysis  financialmarket  default  liquidity  solvency  confidence  trust 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy Obsessed by ‘Lo Spread’ as Yields Surge - Bloomberg
Spread Watching
In downtown Milan, adjacent to the city’s landmark Il Duomo cathedral, a group of Italians gather frequently to gaze at market prices on a giant TV screen displaying Bloomberg data.
“What’s the spread? It’s the difference that a country pays on interest rates compared with another,” said a 76-year- old retiree who would only identify himself as Peppino. “How can we pay 6 percent interest rates in Italy and Germany 2 percent?” Peppino said. “It shows that Italy is sick. When a country is strong, the spread falls.”
Italy  society  finance  sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  media 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Geringverdiener in Deutschland: Wo die Niedriglöhner malochen - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Der Anteil der Beschäftigten unterhalb der Niedriglohnschwelle ist in den vergangenen Jahren kontinuierlich gestiegen. Das geht aus aktuellen Statistiken der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) hervor. Demnach verdienten im vergangenen Jahr 4,6 Millionen der rund 21 Millionen sozialversicherungspflichtig Vollzeitbeschäftigten monatlich weniger als 1800 Euro brutto. Ihr Anteil hat sich zwischen 1999 und 2010 in Westdeutschland von 16,6 auf 20,8 Prozent und in Ostdeutschland von 17,9 auf 21,1 Prozent erhöht.
germany  lohndumping  OECD  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Wall Street Journal Lays It Down: "Merkel And Sarkozy Have Lost Credibility" | ZeroHedge
No wonder the markets won't lend and China won't invest in Europe's bailout funds. Nothing these leaders say any longer carries any credibility.
angelamerkel  sarkozy  politics  EMU  Europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  confidence  2011 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Lagarde Warns of East Europe Liquidity Squeeze - Bloomberg
ban balance sheets shrink bc of set capital rules, does not support europes economic well being
east-europe  IMF  2011  2012 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Wikileaks Exposes German Preparations For "A Eurozone Chapter 11" | ZeroHedge

¶9. (C) DB Chief Economist Thomas Mayer told Ambassador Murphy he was pessimistic Greece would take the difficult steps needed to put its house in order. A worst case scenario, says Mayer, could be that Germany pulls out of the Eurozone altogether in 20 years time. In 1990, Germany's Constitutional Court ruled that the country could withdraw from the Euro if: 1) the currency union became an "inflationary zone," or 2) the German taxpayer became the Eurozone's "de facto bailout provider." Mayer proposes a "Chapter 11 for Eurozone countries," which would place troubled members under economic supervision until they put their house in order. Unfortunately, there is no serious discussion of this underway, he lamented.
germany  greece  bailout  PIIGS  EMU  wikileaks  cable  cablegate  Europe  Euro  chapter-11  default  2011  politics 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Credit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan - Bloomberg
The European nations are linked in a network of debts, as Bill Marsh recently illustrated in the New York Times with a beautiful piece of graphic art. Greece and Italy are prominent; Ireland, Portugal and Spain lurk ominously nearby. France and Germany seem exposed, too, as does the U.S.
The image is like a complex wiring diagram for a ticking debt bomb. Yet what it shows may be less important than what it leaves out: a largely invisible network of ties among institutions around the world, which could ultimately cause global financial chaos.
This hidden network has been created by institutions that buy and sell unregulated credit-default swaps. These are essentially insurance contracts on bonds; in the event of a default on the bond, the seller of the swap promises to pay the buyer the bond’s value.

The researchers showed that too much risk sharing can make it easy for distress to spread like a virus.
CDS  Europe  bomb  debt  bubble  2011  OTC  sovereign  crisis  unknown  toobigtofail  2008  AIG  risk  system  systemicrisk  problems  exposure  Greece  PIIGS  tippingpoint  history  lesson  economics  Financalmeltdown  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  financialmarket  financialmarkets  financialcrisis  finance 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
ISDA Text: Ultimate Decision on CDS Credit Events by Comte | ForexLive
Based on what we know now, it appears from news reports that the
Eurozone proposal involves a voluntary exchange that would not be
binding on all holders. As such, it does not appear to be likely that
the Eurozone proposal will trigger payments under existing CDS
contracts. However, whether or not it does so will be decided by the DC
on the basis of the specific facts, if a request is made to them.
Greece  haircut  EFSF  bailout  2011  CDS  contract 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
IMF says CAD “on the strong side” of fundamentals | ForexLive
IMF says CAD “on the strong side” of fundamentals
Written by Jamie Coleman
October 31, 2011 at 17:02 GMT
Appropriate for Canadian monetary policy to be accommodation for some time
Canada may need to cool housing market further
Canada  bubble  housemarket  property  2011 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Why the latest eurozone bail-out is destined to fail within weeks - Telegraph
Some say Western governments shouldn't "accept" what the market says. "Who do these trading people think they are," I hear from the lips of the educated but financially-illiterate political elite. Let's be clear – if global bond markets stop lending to a number of large Western economies, we are in the realms of unpaid state wages and pensions, transport chaos and closures of schools and hospitals – sparking the prospect of serious civil unrest. Forgive my intemperate tone, but these are the dangers we face. And I'm afraid the only rational response to Thursday's announcement is that the probability of such undesirable outcomes has just been increased.
europe  state  bankruptcy  insolvency  insolvent  PIIGS  austerity  2011 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
FOMC Minutes: Some Fed Officials Sought To Retain Option For QE3 | ZeroHedge
Minutes from meeting where OpTwist was enacted showed;

"A number of participants saw large-scale asset purchases as potentially a more potent tool that should be retained as an option in the event that further policy action to support a stronger economic recovery was warranted. Some judged that large-scale asset purchases and the resulting expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet would be more likely to raise inflation and inflation expectations than to stimulate economic activity and argued that such tools should be reserved for circumstances in which the risk of deflation was elevated."
Fed  QE3  2011  QE  operationtwist 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Credit Suisse Buries China's Banks | ZeroHedge
Wonder why China just bailed out its banks, preemptively, on Monday? Here's why. In a report issued by Credit Suisse's Sanjay Jain, the China strategist, who joins such now infamous skeptics as Bank of Countrywide Lynch's David Cui, has revised his base case Non Performing Loan ratio forecast from 4.5%-5.0% to 8.0%-12.0%: a unprecedented doubling in cumulative losses. Why unprecedented? Because as he explains, this could "would work out to 65–100% of banks’ equity." Crickets? Yes, Credit Suisse just singlehandedly said the equity value of the entire Chinese banking system is between 66% and 100% overvalued (with a downside case of $0.00).
China  bubble  2011  2012  NPL  non-performing  loan 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
The Volcker Rule: Toothless Then, Even More Toothless Now | ZeroHedge
Whatever the banks ultimately have to live with, it is highly unlikely that it will resemble this. If the Basel Accords are any indication, the battle to water down the rules will continue up until the last minute.

In the meantime, many of the Volcker Rules would be unnecessary if more products were put on exchanges. So many of the “flow trading” concerns that are being raised by this document would go away if the regulators pushed for more transparency, more clearing, and more exchange traded products. Progress on that front would go a long way to decreasing risks. Of all the banking nightmares, not once have I heard of an equity “sales-trader” putting the firm at risk.
risk  VolckerRule  2011  bank  regulation  reform  transparency  OTC 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Erste Group Reveals Stunner: Reports Billions In Previously Undisclosed Underwater Sovereign CDS
Erste disclosed some major losses on its €5.2 billion CDS portfolio, consisting of "EUR 2.4 billion related to financial institution exposures, and EUR 2.8 billion related sovereign exposures". Why is this a surprise? UK-based financial advisory Autonomous explains: "The fact that Erste had a sovereign CDS portfolio which was not marked-to-market has left many investors scratching their heads. As a reminder the EBA stress test data showed Erste to have zero sovereign CDS exposure within its sovereign mix compared to the €2.8bn it now appears to have ‘fessed up’ to (taking a cumulative €460m hit).
europe  stresstest  bank  banking  2011 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Slovakian EFSF Opponent Sulik: 'The Greatest Threat to Europe Is the Bailout Fund' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
The greatest threat to the euro is the bailout fund itself.


Sulik: It's an attempt to use fresh debt to solve the debt crisis. That will never work. But, for me, the main issue is protecting the money of Slovak taxpayers. We're supposed to contribute the largest share of the bailout fund measured in terms of economic strength. That's unacceptable.
EFSF  Slovakia  2011 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
W, V, U or L: How Is the Economic Recovery Shaping Up, Literally? - YouTube
Uploaded by PBSNewsHour on Oct 7, 2011
The latest unemployment figures out Friday reinforce the notion that the U.S. economy remains weak when compared to recoveries of the past. As part of his reporting on Making Sen$e of financial news, Paul Solman visits with economist Simon Johnson for a checkup on what shape the economic recovery is taking.
USA  lostdecade  greatrecession  unemployment  recovery  2011  outlook  employment  GDP  japan  history  financialcrisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  greatdepression 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
UK GDP revisions: Bigger boom, deeper bust, earlier recovery | The Economist
The new figures clear up some puzzles. For instance, net exports made a bigger contribution to GDP growth in 2009 and 2010 than previously thought and consumer spending was weaker. That points to greater"rebalancing" in the economy and a larger effect of a weaker currency on the mix of spending. But the resilience of the jobs market (until very recently) is still hard to reconcile with a fairly sluggish recovery in 2009 and 2010. That suggests more upward revisions are likely. GDP figures (in Britain, at least) are always provisional. It takes years for the true picture to emerge.
GDP  economy  economics  UK  revision  2009  2010  2011  rebalancing  greatrecession  2008  recession  recovery 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Bloggende Wall-Street-Gegner: "Wir kriegen nichts, die Banker alles" - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Netzwelt
Tausende US-Bürger protestieren gegen die mächtigen Finanzinstitutionen ihres Landes: "Occupy Wall Street" ist ihr Motto, die Wall Street besetzen. Die weitgehend friedliche Besetzung auf den engen Straßen von Manhattan wird über das Netz organisiert - und im Internet geben Hunderte der Bewegung ein Gesicht.

Auf dem Tumblr-Blog "We are the 99 Percent" erzählen Amerikaner von ihrem ganz persönlichen Alptraum, von hohen Krediten, die sie für ihr Studium aufgenommen haben, von Arbeitslosigkeit, zahlreichen Nebenjobs, von Krankenversicherungen, die sie nicht versichern wollen. Die Blog-Betreiber erklärt den Titel "We are the 99 Percent" so: "Wir machen viele Überstunden für wenig Geld und ohne Rechte - wenn wir überhaupt Arbeit haben. Wir bekommen nichts, während 1 Prozent der Bevölkerung alles bekommt. Wir sind die 99 Prozent."
occupywallstreet  anger  internet  2011  movement 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Economics v politics: A self-induced recession | The Economist
Europe’s perverse insistence on austerity, stemming from a wholly erroneous diagnosis of the cause of its crisis (as this article from The Economist succinctly notes), coupled with doubts about their banks' ability to withstand sovereign bond losses, is pushing the continent’s economy into a completely unnecessary recession.

A global economy with decent cyclical fuel and no obvious imbalances is being betrayed by politics. Policy has pushed us over the brink in the past when it was for our own good (ie, inflation was threatening). If it happens now, it will be the first recorded instance of it happening by obduracy instead of by choice.
double-dip  recession  2011  2012  Europe  USA  greatrecession  greatcontraction  lostdecade  politics  policy  folly  austerity  sovereign  debt  overhang  error  fiscal  monetary 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
US-Bericht: Brsenaufsicht wirft Rating-Agenturen Fehler vor - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Washington - Die Kritik ist harsch: Nach Einschätzung der US-Börsenaufsicht (SEC) versagen die wichtigen Rating-Agenturen in Kernfragen ihres Geschäfts und machen "offenkundige Fehler". Den Bonitätswächtern gelinge es teilweise nicht, methodischen Vorgaben zu folgen oder Interessenkonflikte zu vermeiden, bemängelt die SEC in ihrem an diesem Freitag erschienenen ersten jährlichen Untersuchungsbericht zu den zehn größten Agenturen. Bei ihren Veröffentlichungen arbeiteten sie nicht zeitgerecht und nicht präzise (den vollständigen, englischsprachigen Bericht finden Sie hier).
ratingagencies  moodys  S&P  Fitch  SEC  oversight  regulation  reform  2011 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
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