threat-modeling   55

« earlier    

Eternity in six hours: intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox
We do this by demonstrating that traveling between galaxies – indeed even launching a colonisation project for the entire reachable universe – is a relatively simple task for a star-spanning civilization, requiring modest amounts of energy and resources. We start by demonstrating that humanity itself could likely accomplish such a colonisation project in the foreseeable future, should we want to, and then demonstrate that there are millions of galaxies that could have reached us by now, using similar methods. This results in a considerable sharpening of the Fermi paradox.
pdf  study  article  essay  anthropic  fermi  space  expansionism  bostrom  ratty  philosophy  xenobio  ideas  threat-modeling  intricacy  time  civilization  🔬  futurism  questions  paradox  risk  physics  engineering  interdisciplinary  frontier  technology  volo-avolo  dirty-hands  ai  automation  robotics  duplication  iteration-recursion  von-neumann  data  scale  magnitude  skunkworks  the-world-is-just-atoms  hard-tech  ems  bio  bits  speedometer  nature  model-organism  mechanics  phys-energy  relativity  electromag  analysis  spock  nitty-gritty  spreading  hanson  street-fighting  speed  gedanken  nibble 
8 weeks ago by nhaliday
[1709.01149] Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations
The number of people able to end Earth's technical civilization has heretofore been small. Emerging dual-use technologies, such as biotechnology, may give similar power to thousands or millions of individuals. To quantitatively investigate the ramifications of such a marked shift on the survival of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial technical civilizations, this paper presents a two-parameter model for civilizational lifespans, i.e. the quantity L in Drake's equation for the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations. One parameter characterizes the population lethality of a civilization's biotechnology and the other characterizes the civilization's psychosociology. L is demonstrated to be less than the inverse of the product of these two parameters. Using empiric data from Pubmed to inform the biotechnology parameter, the model predicts human civilization's median survival time as decades to centuries, even with optimistic psychosociological parameter values, thereby positioning biotechnology as a proximate threat to human civilization. For an ensemble of civilizations having some median calculated survival time, the model predicts that, after 80 times that duration, only one in 1024 civilizations will survive -- a tempo and degree of winnowing compatible with Hanson's "Great Filter." Thus, assuming that civilizations universally develop advanced biotechnology, before they become vigorous interstellar colonizers, the model provides a resolution to the Fermi paradox.
preprint  article  gedanken  threat-modeling  risk  biotech  anthropic  fermi  ratty  hanson  models  xenobio  space  civilization  frontier  hmm  speedometer  society  psychology  social-psych  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  disease  parasites-microbiome  maxim-gun  prepping  science-anxiety  technology  magnitude  scale  data  prediction  speculation  ideas  🌞  org:mat  study  offense-defense  arms  unintended-consequences  spreading  explanans  sociality  cybernetics 
october 2017 by nhaliday
spaceships - Can there be a space age without petroleum (crude oil)? - Worldbuilding Stack Exchange

What was really important to our development of technology was not oil, but coal. Access to large deposits of high-quality coal largely fueled the industrial revolution, and it was the industrial revolution that really got us on the first rungs of the technological ladder.

Oil is a fantastic fuel for an advanced civilisation, but it's not essential. Indeed, I would argue that our ability to dig oil out of the ground is a crutch, one that we should have discarded long ago. The reason oil is so essential to us today is that all our infrastructure is based on it, but if we'd never had oil we could still have built a similar infrastructure. Solar power was first displayed to the public in 1878. Wind power has been used for centuries. Hydroelectric power is just a modification of the same technology as wind power.

Without oil, a civilisation in the industrial age would certainly be able to progress and advance to the space age. Perhaps not as quickly as we did, but probably more sustainably.

Without coal, though...that's another matter

What would the industrial age be like without oil and coal?:

Out of the ashes:
It took a lot of fossil fuels to forge our industrial world. Now they're almost gone. Could we do it again without them?

But charcoal-based industry didn’t die out altogether. In fact, it survived to flourish in Brazil. Because it has substantial iron deposits but few coalmines, Brazil is the largest charcoal producer in the world and the ninth biggest steel producer. We aren’t talking about a cottage industry here, and this makes Brazil a very encouraging example for our thought experiment.

The trees used in Brazil’s charcoal industry are mainly fast-growing eucalyptus, cultivated specifically for the purpose. The traditional method for creating charcoal is to pile chopped staves of air-dried timber into a great dome-shaped mound and then cover it with turf or soil to restrict airflow as the wood smoulders. The Brazilian enterprise has scaled up this traditional craft to an industrial operation. Dried timber is stacked into squat, cylindrical kilns, built of brick or masonry and arranged in long lines so that they can be easily filled and unloaded in sequence. The largest sites can sport hundreds of such kilns. Once filled, their entrances are sealed and a fire is lit from the top.
q-n-a  stackex  curiosity  gedanken  biophysical-econ  energy-resources  long-short-run  technology  civilization  industrial-revolution  heavy-industry  multi  modernity  frontier  allodium  the-world-is-just-atoms  big-picture  ideas  risk  volo-avolo  news  org:mag  org:popup  direct-indirect  retrofit  dirty-hands  threat-modeling  duplication  iteration-recursion  latin-america  track-record  trivia  cocktail  data 
june 2017 by nhaliday
[1705.03394] That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox
If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to aestivate until the far future in order to exploit the low temperature environment: this can produce a 10^30 multiplier of achievable computation. We hence suggest the "aestivation hypothesis": the reason we are not observing manifestations of alien civilizations is that they are currently (mostly) inactive, patiently waiting for future cosmic eras. This paper analyzes the assumptions going into the hypothesis and how physical law and observational evidence constrain the motivations of aliens compatible with the hypothesis.

simpler explanation (just different math for Drake equation):
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox:
Overall the argument is that point estimates should not be shoved into a Drake equation and then multiplied by each, as that requires excess certainty and masks much of the ambiguity of our knowledge about the distributions. Instead, a Bayesian approach should be used, after which the fate of humanity looks much better. Here is one part of the presentation:
preprint  study  essay  article  bostrom  ratty  anthropic  philosophy  space  xenobio  computation  physics  interdisciplinary  ideas  hmm  cocktail  temperature  thermo  information-theory  bits  🔬  threat-modeling  time  scale  insight  multi  commentary  liner-notes  pdf  slides  error  probability  ML-MAP-E  composition-decomposition  econotariat  marginal-rev  fermi  risk  org:mat  questions  paradox  intricacy  multiplicative  calculation  street-fighting  methodology  distribution  expectancy  moments  bayesian  priors-posteriors  nibble 
may 2017 by nhaliday
How many times over could the world's current supply of nuclear weapons destroy the world? - Quora
A Common Story: “There are enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world many times over.” This is nothing more than poorly crafted fiction an urban legend. This common conclusion is not based in any factual data. It is based solely in hype, hysteria, propaganda and fear mongering.

If you take every weapon in existence today, approximately 6500 megatons between 15,000 warheads with an average yield of 433 KT, and put a single bomb in its own 100 square mile grid… one bomb per grid (10 miles x 10 miles), you will contain >95% of the destructive force of each bomb on average within the grid it is in. This means the total landmass to receive a destructive force from all the world's nuclear bombs is an area of 1.5 million square miles. Not quite half of the United States and 1/38 of the world's total land mass…. that's it!
q-n-a  qra  arms  nuclear  technology  war  meta:war  impact  deterrence  foreign-policy  usa  world  risk  nihil  scale  trivia  threat-modeling  peace-violence 
may 2017 by nhaliday
What is the likelihood we run out of fossil fuels before we can switch to renewable energy sources? - Quora
1) Can we de-carbon our primary energy production before global warming severely damages human civilization? In the short term this means switching from coal to natural gas, and in the long term replacing both coal and gas generation with carbon-neutral sources such as renewables or nuclear. The developed world cannot accomplish this alone -- it requires worldwide action, and most of the pain will be felt by large developing nations such as India and China. Ultimately this is a political and economic problem. The technology to eliminate most carbon from electricity generation exists today at fairly reasonable cost.

2) Can we develop a better transportation energy storage technology than oil, before market forces drive prices to levels that severely damage the global economy? Fossil fuels are a source of energy, but primarily we use oil in vehicles because it is an exceptional energy TRANSPORT medium. Renewables cannot meet this need because battery technology is completely uncompetitive for most fuel consumers -- prices are an order of magnitude too high and energy density is an order of magnitude too low for adoption of all-electric vehicles outside developed-world urban centers. (Heavy trucking, cargo ships, airplanes, etc will never be all-electric with chemical batteries. There are hard physical limits to the energy density of electrochemical reactions. I'm not convinced passenger vehicles will go all-electric in our lifetimes either.) There are many important technologies in existence that will gain increasing traction in the next 50 years such as natural gas automobiles and improved gas/electric hybrids, but ultimately we need a better way to store power than fossil fuels. _This is a deep technological problem that will not be solved by incremental improvements in battery chemistry or any process currently in the R&D pipeline_.

Based on these two unresolved issues, _I place the odds of us avoiding fossil-fuel-related energy issues (major climate or economic damage) at less than 10%_. The impetus for the major changes required will not be sufficiently urgent until the world is seeing severe and undeniable impacts. Civilization will certainly survive -- but there will be no small amount of human suffering during the transition to whatever comes next.

- Ryan Carlyle
q-n-a  qra  expert  energy-resources  climate-change  environment  risk  civilization  nihil  prediction  threat-modeling  world  futurism  biophysical-econ  stock-flow  transportation  technology  economics  long-short-run  no-go  speedometer  modernity  expert-experience 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Introducing Microsoft Threat Modeling Tool 2014 | Microsoft Secure Blog
A tool which help define a Threat Model according to Microsoft's process.
security  architecture  threat-modeling 
april 2017 by cdury

« earlier    

related tags

80000-hours  accelerationism  acmtariat  adversarial  agriculture  ai-control  ai  albion  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  analysis  anglo  announcement  anthropic  anthropology  antiquity  applications  architecture  arms  article  asia  atoms  attention  authoritarianism  automation  average-case  barons  bayesian  big-picture  bio  biophysical-econ  biotech  bits  blowhards  bostrom  bounded-cognition  britain  c(pp)  calculation  calculator  capitalism  chart  cheatsheet  civilization  clever-rats  climate-change  coarse-fine  cocktail  commentary  communication  comparison  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computation  concept  concrete  conquest-empire  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  cost-benefit  crispr  critique  crypto  cultural-dynamics  curiosity  cybernetics  cybersecurity-education  cynicism-idealism  data  database  death  decision-theory  deep-learning  deep-materialism  deepgoog  defense  deterrence  development  dimensionality  direct-indirect  dirty-hands  discipline  discrete  discussion  disease  distribution  diversity  duplication  dynamic  earth  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  economics  econotariat  eden-heaven  eden  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  egt  electromag  ems  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  entropy-like  environment  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethics  europe  evolution  existence  expansionism  expectancy  expert-experience  expert  explanans  explanation  explore-exploit  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  fermi  feudal  filetype:pdf  flexibility  flux-stasis  food  foreign-policy  formal-values  frameworks  frontier  futurism  gallic  gedanken  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  geopolitics  gibbon  google  government  gradient-descent  great-powers  growth-econ  guide  gwern  hacker  hanson  hard-tech  hardware  heavy-industry  heuristic  hierarchy  high-dimension  high-variance  history  hmm  homo-hetero  horror  howto  hsu  human-bean  humanity  ideas  identity  idk  impact  incentives  industrial-revolution  info-dynamics  information-theory  infrastructure  input-output  insight  institutions  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  intricacy  iron-age  iteration-recursion  japan  korea  latin-america  len:short  lesswrong  let-me-see  leviathan  libraries  liner-notes  links  lived-experience  local-global  long-short-run  low-hanging  machine-learning  magnitude  malthus  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  markets  maxim-gun  mechanics  media  media:document  medieval  mediterranean  memory-management  meta:war  methodology  miri-cfar  ml-map-e  model-class  model-organism  models  modernity  moloch  moments  multi  multiplicative  musk  mutation  nature  network-structure  neuro  new-religion  news  nibble  nihil  nitty-gritty  no-go  nuclear  number  objektbuch  oceans  offense-defense  online  openai  opensource  opsec  optimization  order-disorder  org:biz  org:bleg  org:edu  org:gov  org:inst  org:lite  org:mag  org:mat  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:sci  organization  os  papers  paradox  parasites-microbiome  patience  pdf  peace-violence  performance  pessimism  phalanges  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  planning  plots  policy  polisci  popsci  population-genetics  population  prediction  prepping  preprint  presentation  priors-posteriors  privacy  probability  propaganda  proposal  psychology  puzzles  q-n-a  qra  questions  ranking  rationality  ratty  realpolitik  red-queen  reddit  reduction  reference  reflection  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  relativity  research-program  research  retention  retrofit  rhetoric  rigidity  risk  robotics  robust  roots  saas  safety  scale  science-anxiety  science  scitariat  sdl  search  secure-development  securities  security-thinking  security  selfish-gene  signal-noise  signaling  simulation  singularity  skunkworks  sky  sleuthin  slides  slippery-slope  smoothness  social-psych  social  sociality  society  software  space  speculation  speed  speedometer  spock  spreading  stackex  stagnation  status  stock-flow  strategy  street-fighting  study  summary  survey  survival  systems  tails  technology  telos-atelos  temperance  temperature  tetlock  the-classics  the-self  the-world-is-just-atoms  thermo  thinking  time-preference  time-series  time  to-watch  tools  track-record  trade  tradecraft  tradeoffs  transportation  travel  trends  trivia  troll  turing  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  unsupervised  usa  utopia-dystopia  values  video  visualization  volo-avolo  von-neumann  vulnerabilities  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  west-hunter  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  whole-partial-many  wiki  wild-ideas  wonkish  world  xenobio  🌞  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark: