tetlock   103

« earlier    

Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? - The Atlantic
Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. Like Ehrlich and Simon, they fashion tidy theories of how the world works based on observations through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.

Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.
Academia  Tetlock  predictions  AtlanticMonthly 
june 2019 by HispanicPundit
Bevara oss för igelkottarna - Fokus
Bland annat om 's tankar:
"Bevara oss för igelkottarna" - Fokus
Inspiration av radions P1 precis
Tetlock  from twitter
december 2017 by kentlundgren
Living with Ignorance in a World of Experts
Another kind of track record that we might care about is not about the expert’s performance, qua expert, but about her record of epistemic integrity. This will be important for helping provide reasonably well supported answers to (Q3) and (Q4) in particular. Anderson (2011) offers some related ideas in her discussion of “criteria for judging honesty” and “criteria for judging epistemic responsibility.” Things we might be interested include the following:
• evidence of previous expert-related dishonesty (e.g. plagiarism, faking data)
• evidence of a record of misleading statements (e.g. cherry-picking data, quotations out of context)
• evidence of a record of misrepresenting views of expert opponents
• evidence of evasion of peer-review or refusal to allow other experts to assess work
• evidence of refusal to disclose data, methodology, or detailed results
• evidence of refusal to disclose results contrary to the expert’s own views
• evidence of “dialogic irrationality”: repeating claims after they have been publicly refuted, without responding to the refutations
• evidence of a record of “over-claiming” of expertise: claiming expertise beyond the expert’s domain of expertise
• evidence of a record of “lending” one’s expertise to support other individuals or institutions that themselves lack epistemic integrity in some of the above ways
• evidence of being an “opinion for hire”—offering expert testimony for pay, perhaps particularly if that testimony conflicts with other things the expert has said
pdf  essay  study  philosophy  rationality  epistemic  info-dynamics  westminster  track-record  checklists  list  tetlock  expert  info-foraging  sleuthin  metabuch  meta:rhetoric  integrity  honor  crooked  phalanges  truth  expert-experience  reason  decision-making 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve’s Approach
First, if past performance is a reasonable guide to future accuracy, considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections, including those of FOMC participants. Second, different forecasters have similar accuracy. Third, estimates of uncertainty about future real activity and interest rates are now considerably greater than prior to the financial crisis; in contrast, estimates of inflation accuracy have changed little.
pdf  study  economics  macro  meta:prediction  tetlock  accuracy  org:gov  government  wonkish  moments  🎩  volo-avolo 
september 2017 by nhaliday
How accurate are population forecasts?
2 The Accuracy of Past Projections: https://www.nap.edu/read/9828/chapter/4
good ebook:
Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population (2000)
Appendix A: Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population
PDE Population Projections looks most relevant for my interests but it's also *ancient*
This Applied Demography Toolbox is a collection of applied demography computer programs, scripts, spreadsheets, databases and texts.

How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections?: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~dbackus/BCH/demography/Keilman_JDR_98.pdf

cf. Razib on this: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:d63e6df859e8
news  org:lite  prediction  meta:prediction  tetlock  demographics  population  demographic-transition  fertility  islam  world  developing-world  africa  europe  multi  track-record  accuracy  org:ngo  pdf  study  sociology  measurement  volo-avolo  methodology  estimate  data-science  error  wire-guided  priors-posteriors  books  guide  howto  software  tools  recommendations  libraries  gnxp  scitariat 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Has war been declining? | OUPblog
People have always alternated between the three behavioural options of cooperation, peaceful competition, and violence to attain evolution-shaped human desires. Developments since the onset of the industrial age from 1815 onwards have radically shifted the calculus of war and peace towards the two peaceful options, sharply decreasing belligerency in the parts of the world affected by the process of modernization. Rather than war becoming more costly in terms of life and resources, as many believe to be the case (not so), the real change is that peace has become more rewarding. The Modernization Peace concept scrutinizes, contextualizes, and encompasses within a comprehensive framework the various peace theories advanced over the past few decades, and shows the more valid ones to be elements of a greater whole. By now, war has disappeared within the world’s most developed areas and survives only in its less developed, developing, and undeveloped parts.

Finally, the Modernization Peace concept has been disrupted in the past, most conspicuously during the two world wars, and challenges to it still arise. Challenges include claimants to alternative modernity—such as China and Russia, still much behind in levels of development and affluence—anti-modernists, and failed modernizers that may spawn terrorism, potentially unconventional. While the world has become more peaceful than ever before, with war unprecedentedly disappearing in its most developed parts, there is still much to worry about in terms of security and there is no place for complacency.
essay  article  expert  war  meta:war  peace-violence  martial  cooperate-defect  china  asia  russia  modernity  pinker  trends  the-bones  zeitgeist  broad-econ  org:edu  anthropology  tetlock  incentives  cost-benefit  roots  expert-experience 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Why China Cannot Rise Peacefully - YouTube
- unexpected accent/tone lol
- principles: states as unit of action/global anarchy, uncertainty (fog-of-war), states as rational, selfish actors
- consequences: need to become as powerful as possible, regional hegemon, prevent peer competitors (no other regional hegemon in world, eg, China)
- future: China as giant Hong Kong
- future coalition: India, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, and the USA
- does he actually think Brazil coulda gotten as powerful as the US? lol.
- his summary of American grand strategy (lol):
1. Europe (great powers)
2. NE Asia (great powers)
3. Persian Gulf (oil)
- "Europe will become distant 3rd, Europe is a museum, lotta old people." lol
- "not gonna help us with Asia, got their own problems, bankrupting themselves"
- counterarguments: "not gonna grow, China's a Confucian culture (don't pay attention to those), economic interdependence." doesn't buy the last either.
- best counterarguments: nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence, "age of nationalism"
- mass-murder usually strategic (eg, maintaining power) not ideological

debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd-1LymXXX0

interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXSkY4QKDlA
- Clinton's a realist
- plenty of economic independence prior to world wars
- nukes makes WW3 unlikely, but do not rule out limited war (eg, over East/South China Sea)
- Confucian pacifism argument is ahistorical
rhetoric  video  presentation  foreign-policy  realpolitik  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  expansionism  war  great-powers  defense  statesmen  world  prediction  contrarianism  org:edu  org:davos  trends  martial  politics  polisci  nihil  nationalism-globalism  tetlock  kumbaya-kult  meta:war  intel  strategy  history  mostly-modern  russia  communism  cold-war  signal-noise  meta:prediction  🎩  civilization  rationality  realness  thinking  systematic-ad-hoc  uncertainty  outcome-risk  nyc  geopolitics  speaking  order-disorder  GT-101  chart  canada  latin-america  early-modern  world-war  japan  power  india  coalitions  zero-positive-sum  winner-take-all  germanic  europe  mediterranean  zeitgeist  the-bones  developing-world  korea  obama  MENA  pre-2013  energy-resources  economics  top-n  big-picture  trade  stylized-facts  debate  water  business  confucian  nuclear  deterrence  iraq-syria  africa  iran  oceans  climate-change  leviathan  death  cynicism-idealism  multi  interview  clinton  peace-violence  legibility  orient  flux-stasis  conquest-empire  c 
may 2017 by nhaliday
[1502.05274] How predictable is technological progress?
Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting experiments we show that this works well, making it possible to collapse the forecast errors for many different technologies at different time horizons onto the same universal distribution. This is valuable because it allows us to make forecasts for any given technology with a clear understanding of the quality of the forecasts. As a practical demonstration we make distributional forecasts at different time horizons for solar photovoltaic modules, and show how our method can be used to estimate the probability that a given technology will outperform another technology at a given point in the future.

- p_t = unit price of tech
- log(p_t) = y_0 - μt + ∑_{i <= t} n_i
- n_t iid noise process
preprint  study  economics  growth-econ  innovation  discovery  technology  frontier  tetlock  meta:prediction  models  time  definite-planning  stylized-facts  regression  econometrics  magnitude  energy-resources  phys-energy  money  cost-benefit  stats  data-science  🔬  ideas  speedometer  multiplicative  methodology  stochastic-processes  time-series  stock-flow  iteration-recursion  org:mat  street-fighting  the-bones 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Why The Best Supreme Court Predictor In The World Is Some Random Guy In Queens | FiveThirtyEight

Jacob Berlove, 30, of Queens, is the best human Supreme Court predictor in the world. Actually, forget the qualifier. He’s the best Supreme Court predictor in the world. He won FantasySCOTUS three years running. He correctly predicts cases more than 80 percent of the time. He plays under the name “Melech” — “king” in Hebrew.

Berlove has no formal legal training. Nor does he use statistical analyses to aid his predictions. He got interested in the Supreme Court in elementary school, reading his local paper, the Cincinnati Enquirer. In high school, he stumbled upon a constitutional law textbook.

“I read through huge chunks of it and I had a great time,” he told me. “I learned a lot over that weekend.”

Berlove has a prodigious memory for justices’ past decisions and opinions, and relies heavily on their colloquies in oral arguments. When we spoke, he had strong feelings about certain justices’ oratorical styles and how they affected his predictions.

Some justices are easy to predict. “I really appreciate Justice Scalia’s candor,” he said. “In oral arguments, 90 percent of the time he makes it very clear what he is thinking.”

Some are not. “To some extent, Justice Thomas might be the hardest, because he never speaks in oral arguments, ever.”1 That fact is mitigated, though, by Thomas’s rather predictable ideology. Justices Kennedy and Breyer can be tricky, too. Kennedy doesn’t tip his hand too much in oral arguments. And Breyer, Berlove says, plays coy.

“He expresses this deep-seated, what I would argue is a phony humility at oral arguments. ‘No, I really don’t know. This is a difficult question. I have to think about it. It’s very close.’ And then all of sudden he writes the opinion and he makes it seem like it was never a question in the first place. I find that to be very annoying.”

I told Ruger about Berlove. He said it made a certain amount of sense that the best Supreme Court predictor in the world should be some random guy in Queens.

“It’s possible that too much thinking or knowledge about the law could hurt you. If you make your career writing law review articles, like we do, you come up with your own normative baggage and your own preconceptions,” Ruger said. “We can’t be as dispassionate as this guy.”
news  org:data  prediction-markets  meta:prediction  institutions  law  government  trivia  cool  info-foraging  alt-inst  info-dynamics  stories  tools  multi  tetlock  paying-rent  realness  🎩  axioms 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Animal spirits (Keynes) - Wikipedia
Animal spirits is the term John Maynard Keynes used in his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money to describe the instincts, proclivities and emotions that ostensibly influence and guide human behavior, and which can be measured in terms of, for example, consumer confidence. It has since been argued that trust is also included in or produced by "animal spirits".
economics  macro  meta:prediction  tetlock  psychology  social-psych  instinct  heuristic  bounded-cognition  error  info-dynamics  wiki  reference  jargon  aphorism  big-peeps 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order - Samuel P. Huntington - Google Books
prediction from 1996:
A civilizational paradigm thus sets forth a relatively simple but not too simple map for understanding what is going on in the world as the twentieth century ends. No paradigm, however, is good forever. The Cold War model of world politics was useful and relevant for forty years but became obsolete in the late l980s, and at some point the civilizational paradigm will suffer a similar fate. For the contemporary period, however, it provides a useful guide for distinguishing what is more important from what is less important. Slightly less than half of the forty-eight ethnic conflicts in the world in early 1993, for example, were between groups from different civilizations. The civilizational perspective would lead the UN. Secretary-General and the U.S. Secretary of State to concentrate their peacemaking efforts on these conflicts which have much greater potential than others to escalate into broader wars.

Paradigms also generate predictions, and a crucial test of a paradigms validity and usefulness is the extent to which the predictions derived from it turn out to be more accurate than those from alternative paradigms. A statist paradigm, for instance, leads John Mearsheimer to predict that “the situation between Ukraine and Russia is ripe for the outbreak of security competition between them. Great powers that share a long and unprotected common border, like that between Russia and Ukraine, often lapse into competition driven by security fears. Russia and Ukraine might overcome this dynamic and learn to live together in harmony, but it would be unusual if they do.”"‘ A civilizational approach, on the other hand, emphasizes the close cultural, personal, and historical links between Russia and Ukraine and the intermingling of Russians and Ukrainians in both countries, and focuses instead on the civilizational fault line that divides Orthodox eastern Ukraine from Uniate western Ukraine, a central historical fact of long standing which, in keeping with the “realist” concept of states as unified and self-identified entities, Mearsheimer totally ignores. While a statist approach highlights the possibility of a Russian-Ukrainian war, a civilizational approach minimizes that and instead highlights the possibility of Ukraine splitting in half, a separation which cultural factors would lead one to predict might be more violent than that of Czechoslovakia but far less bloody than that of Yugoslavia. These different predictions, in turn, give rise to different policy priorities. Mearsheimer's statist prediction of possible war and Russian conquest of Ukraine leads him to support Ukraine's having nuclear weapons. A civilizational approach would encourage cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, urge Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons, promote substantial economic assistance and other measures to help maintain Ukrainian unity and independence, and sponsor contingency planning for the possible breakup of Ukraine.
gbooks  quotes  big-peeps  huntington  foreign-policy  realpolitik  ideology  thinking  tetlock  history  mostly-modern  prediction  eastern-europe  russia  war  civilization  being-right  realness  aristos  great-powers  statesmen  track-record  walls 
april 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

&  1117  112217  2016-election  2016  80000-hours  ability-competence  absolute-relative  academia  accretion  accuracy  acemoglu  acm  africa  age-generation  aggregator  aging  ai  albion  alt-inst  altruism  analysis  analytical-holistic  and  anglo  anglosphere  anthropology  anti_expert  aphorism  applications  arbitrage  argument  aristos  arms  art  article  asia  atlanticmonthly  audio  authoritarianism  automation  axioms  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  behavioural-economics  being-right  betting  bias-variance  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  biohacking  biophysical-econ  blog  blowhards  book  books  bostrom  bounded-cognition  branches  bret-victor  brexit  britain  broad-econ  bryan_caplan  bueno+de+mesquita  business  c:***  c:**  canada  candidate-gene  capitalism  causality  charity  chart  checking  checklists  china  civilization  clarity  class  clever-rats  climate-change  clinton  coalitions  cog-psych  cold-war  commentary  communism  community  comparison  complex-systems  concept  confluence  confucian  conquest-empire  contest  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  correlation  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  counterfactual  courage  cracker-econ  critique  crooked  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  current-events  curvature  cycles  cynicism-idealism  data-science  data  database  dataviz  death  debate  debt  debugging  decision-making  decision-theory  decision  decisions  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  descriptive  deterrence  developing-world  discipline  discovery  discussion  disease  distribution  diversity  divide-and-conquer  dynamical  early-modern  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econ  econometrics  economics  econotariat  education  effective-altruism  efficiency  eh  elections  elegance  elite  embodied-cognition  embodied-street-fighting  embodied  emotion  ems  energy-resources  ensembles  environment  epidemiology  epistemic  error  essay  estimate  europe  evidence-based  examples  exocortex  expansionism  experiment  expert-experience  expert  experts  explanans  exposure  extrema  fashun  fat  fertility  finance  flexibility  flux-stasis  flynn  forecasting  foreign-policy  fox  frontier  ft  future  futurism  garett-jones  gbooks  gelman  gender-diff  gender  genetics  genomics  geopolitics  germanic  gnon  gnxp  government  governmentexecutive  gray-econ  great-powers  grokkability-clarity  group-selection  growth-econ  growth  gt-101  guide  gwas  gwern  haidt  hanson  hbr  hbspnews  health  healthcare  hedgehog  hedgehogs  heterodox  heuristic  hidden-motives  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  homo-hetero  honor  howto  hsu  human-capital  huntington  hypocrisy  ideas  ideology  idk  illusion  impact  impetus  incentives  india  info-dynamics  info-foraging  innovation  insight  instinct  institutions  integrity  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interest  interests  intervention  interview  intricacy  investing  iq  iran  iraq-syria  islam  israel  iteration-recursion  jamessuroweicki  japan  jargon  journos-pundits  judgement  judgment  kahneman  kissinger  knowledge  korea  kumbaya-kult  labor  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  lectures  left-wing  legacy  legibility  len:short  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  leviathan  libraries  links  list  lmao  local-global  long-short-run  louismenand  luck  macro  magnitude  making  malthus  management  map-territory  marginal-rev  marginal  markets  martial  math  mauboussin  may2016  measurement  media  medicine  mediterranean  mena  mena4  mental-math  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metabolic  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  michael-nielsen  micro  microfoundations  military  minimalism  miri-cfar  models  modernity  moloch  moments  money  mood-affiliation  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  murray  nascent-state  national  nationalism-globalism  near-far  network-structure  new-religion  news  newyorker  nibble  nihil  nitty-gritty  noahpinion  noise-structure  nootropics  north-weingast-like  notation  nuclear  nyc  obama  objektbuch  occam  oceans  old-anglo  oly  open-closed  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:bv  org:data  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edge  org:edu  org:foreign  org:gov  org:lite  org:mag  org:mat  org:nat  org:ngo  org:rec  organization  organizing  orient  outcome-risk  paleocon  parable  parenting  parsimony  path-dependence  paul-romer  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  pessimism  phalanges  philip_tetlock  philiptetlock  phillip  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  pinker  piracy  planning  poast  podcast  policy  polisci  political-econ  political_psychology  politics  population  power-law  power  pre-2013  pre-ww2  prediction-markets  prediction  predictions  preference-falsification  preprint  presentation  primitivism  priors-posteriors  probability  profile  propaganda  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-health  puzzles  quality  quantified-self  questions  quiz  quotes  randy-ayndy  rant  rat-pack  rationality  rats  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  recommendations  recruiting  reddit  reference  reflection  regression  regularizer  replication  research  review  reviews  rhetoric  rindermann-thompson  risk  robust  roots  rot  russia  s:**  sanctity-degradation  schoemaker  science-anxiety  science  scitariat  self-interest  sex  sexuality  signal-noise  signaling  singularity  sinosphere  skill  skunkworks  sleuthin  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social  society  sociology  software  space  speaking  speedometer  spock  spreading  ssc  stagnation  stanford  statesmen  stats  status  stochastic-processes  stock-flow  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  students  study  stylized-facts  subculture  summary  superforecasting  supply-demand  survey  systematic-ad-hoc  taboo  tactics  tails  taleb  taxes  tcstariat  technocracy  technology  techtariat  the-bones  the-self  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theory  thick-thin  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time-series  time  tools  top-n  track-record  tracker  trade  tradeoffs  trends  trivia  troll  trump  truth  tumblr  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unit  universalism-particularism  usa  vaclav-smil  values  vampire-squid  video  virtu  visual-understanding  volo-avolo  walls  war  water  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  wiki  winner-take-all  wire-guided  within-without  wonkish  world-war  world  worrydream  x-not-about-y  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark: