supply-demand   103

« earlier    

Biggest cities in US are losing hundreds of workers every day
A recent Gallup poll found that while 80% of Americans live in urban areas, only 12% said they want to live there. Asked where they would live if they had their choice, the top response was a rural area.
news  org:lite  data  poll  values  distribution  geography  urban-rural  usa  pro-rata  homo-hetero  arbitrage  supply-demand  interface-compatibility  revealed-preference  incentives 
28 days ago by nhaliday
Why general audience news will only get more ideologically polarized: propaganda pays the bills – Gene Expression
The “best” thing about the game that the Indian media played, and the game that the American media plays, is that the people believe that the propaganda is actually fair and balanced! Even the journalists themselves may believe the propaganda because many of them lack specialized knowledge to know when the people they interview are lying to them or misleading them (the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is really disturbing).

Finally, if you are one of those people who strangely prefer the truth, there is a way you can get it: become wealthy and buy the truth. If you are running a hedge-fund or some such other thing, information is not just a passive consumption good. Information is input into the production of more wealth and power. People in this sort of results-driven financial sector mine informants for truth in a very conscious manner to maximize returns for themselves and their clients. And of course, there exists a market for what is basically “reality-based journalism”. It’s just a market that is invisible to us plebs unless we find ourselves having access to nuggets of truth which no one wants to hear, but which global capital wants to profit from….

The “media” that you see and hear about. The media with the big budgets and large news organizations are actually just a simulacrum of an objective data-gathering and transmission institution. In reality, they are tribal newsletters. On the narrow scale, they often reinforce particular tribal narratives and ignore countervailing ones. But on a broader national scale, they collectively flatter our self-image as a people in a sometimes ludicrous fashion.
gnxp  scitariat  reflection  rhetoric  media  propaganda  cynicism-idealism  polarization  incentives  interests  supply-demand  truth  realness  biases  epistemic  politics  ideology  india  asia  gavisti  antiquity  iraq-syria  war  usa  class  finance  capital  paying-rent  prediction  trends  institutions  madisonian  civic  elite  vampire-squid  pessimism  contrarianism  info-dynamics 
8 weeks ago by nhaliday
The Falling Price of Fat | Pseudoerasmus
Summary : There are too many baroque explanations for the increased prevalence of obesity. I suggest a simple mechanism : falling food prices, rising incomes.
econotariat  broad-econ  pseudoE  economics  supply-demand  food  obesity  trends  explanans  cynicism-idealism  money  compensation  cost-benefit  backup  epidemiology  public-health  roots  regularizer  parsimony 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Why has the prevalence of obesity doubled? | SpringerLink
The prevalence of obesity has doubled over the last 25 years. We estimate the effects of multiple socio-environmental factors (e.g., physical demands at work, restaurants, food prices, cigarette smoking, food stamps, and urban sprawl) on obesity using NLSY data. Then we use the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition technique to approximate the contribution of each socio-environmental factor to the increase during this time. Many socio-environmental factors significantly affect weight, but none are able to explain a large portion of the obesity increase. Decreases in cigarette smoking consistently explains about 2–4 % of the increase in obesity and BMI. Food stamp receipt also consistently affects the measures of weight, but the small decrease in food stamp program participation during the period we examine actually dampened the increases in obesity and BMI. Collectively, the socio-environmental factors we examine never explain more than about 6.5 % of the weight increases.
study  sociology  medicine  health  epidemiology  public-health  obesity  trends  roots  explanans  labor  supply-demand  food  welfare-state  urban-rural  variance-components  volo-avolo  questions 
february 2018 by nhaliday
The Grumpy Economist: Bitcoin and Bubbles
Bitcoin is not a very good money. It is a pure fiat money (no backing), whose value comes from limited supply plus these demands. As such it has the huge price fluctuations we see. It's an electronic version of gold, and the price variation should be a warning to economists who long for a return to  gold. My bet is that stable-value cryptocurrencies, offering one dollar per currency unit and low transactions costs, will prosper in the role of money. At least until there is a big inflation or sovereign debt crisis and a stable-value cryptocurrency not linked to government debt emerges.
The Kareken-Wallace Cryptocurrency Price Indeterminacy theorem will someday receive the attention it deserves
Cryptocurrencies also raise in a new way questions of exchange rate indeterminacy. As Kareken and Wallace (1981) observed, fiat currencies are all alike: slips of paper not redeemable for anything. Under a regime of floating exchange rates and no capital controls, and assuming some version of interest rate parity holds, there are an infinity of exchange rates between any two fiat currencies that constitute an equilibrium in their model.

The question of exchange rate indeterminacy is both more and less striking between cryptocurrencies than between fiat currencies. It is less striking because there are considerably more differences between cryptocurrencies than there are between paper money. Paper money is all basically the same. Cryptocurrencies sometimes have different characteristics from each other. For example, the algorithm used as the basis for mining makes a difference – it determines how professionalised the mining pools become. Litecoin uses an algorithm that tends to make mining less concentrated. Another difference is the capability of the cryptocurrency’s language for programming transactions. Ethereum is a new currency that boasts a much more robust language than Bitcoin. Zerocash is another currency that offers much stronger anonymity than Bitcoin. To the extent that cryptocurrencies differ from each other more than fiat currencies do, those differences might be able to pin down exchange rates in a model like Kareken and Wallace’s.

On the other hand, exchange rate indeterminacy could be more severe among cryptocurrencies than between fiat currencies because it is easy to simply create an exact copy of an open source cryptocurrency. There are even websites on which you can create and download the software for your own cryptocurrency with a few clicks of a mouse. These currencies are exactly alike except for their names and other identifying information. Furthermore, unlike fiat currencies, they don’t benefit from government acceptance or optimal currency area considerations that can tie a currency to a given territory.

Even identical currencies, however, can differ in terms of the quality of governance. Bitcoin currently has high quality governance institutions. The core developers are competent and conservative, and the mining and user communities are serious about making the currency work. An exact Bitcoin clone is likely to have a difficult time competing with Bitcoin unless it can promise similarly high-quality governance. When a crisis hits, users of identical currencies are going to want to hold the one that is mostly likely to weather the storm. Consequently, between currencies with identical technical characteristics, we think governance creates something close to a winner-take-all market. Network externalities are very strong in payment systems, and the governance question with respect to cryptocurrencies in particular compounds them.
Explaining a price rise via future increases in the asset's value isn't good economics. The invisible hand should be pushing today's price up to the point where it earns normal expected returns. +
I don't doubt the likelihood of a future cryptocurrency being widely used, but that doesn't pin down the price of any one cryptocurrency as the Kareken-Wallace result shows. There may be a big first mover advantage for Bitcoin but ease of replication makes it a fragile dominance.
I actually can't believe governments are allowing bitcoin to exist (they must be fully on board with going digital at some point)

btc will eventually come in direct competition with national currencies, which will have to raise rates dramatically, or die
The technology of Bitcoin Cash is very similar to the technology of Bitcoin. It offers the same sorts of anonymity, security, and so forth. There are some reasons to believe that in the future, Bitcoin Cash will be a bit easier to trade than Bitcoin (though that is not true in the present), and there are some other technological differences between them, but I’d be surprised to learn that those differences are accounting for any substantial fraction of the price differential.

The total supplies of Bitcoins and of Bitcoin Cash are currently about equal (because of the way that Bitcoin Cash originated). In each case, the supply will gradually grow to 21 million and then stop.

Question 1: Given the near identical properties of these two currencies, how can one sell for ten times the price of the other? Perhaps the answer involves the word “bubble”, but I’d be more interested in answers that assume (at least for the sake of argument) that the price of Bitcoin fairly reflects its properties as a store of value. Given that assumption, is the price differential entirely driven by the fact that Bitcoin came first? Is there that much of a first-mover advantage in this kind of game?

Question 2: Given the existence of other precious metals (e.g. platinum) what accounts for the dominance of gold as a physical store of value? (I note, for example, that when people buy gold as a store of value, they don’t often hesitate out of fear that gold will be displaced by platinum in the foreseeable future.) Is this entirely driven by the fact that gold happened to come first?

Question 3: Are Questions 1 and 2 the same question? Are the dominance of Bitcoin in the digital store-of-value market and the dominance of gold in the physical store-of-value market two sides of the same coin, so to speak? Or do they require fundamentally different explanations?
Champ/Freeman in 2001 explain why the dollar-bitcoin exchange rate is inherently unstable, and why the price of cryptocurrencies is indeterminate:
Lay down a marker:
And remember that the modern macro dogma is that monetary systems matter little for prosperity, once bare competence is achieved.
econotariat  randy-ayndy  commentary  current-events  trends  cryptocurrency  bitcoin  money  monetary-fiscal  economics  cycles  multi  twitter  social  garett-jones  pdf  white-paper  article  macro  trade  incentives  equilibrium  backup  degrees-of-freedom  uncertainty  supply-demand  markets  gnon  🐸  government  gedanken  questions  comparison  analogy  explanans  fungibility-liquidity 
december 2017 by nhaliday
microeconomics - Partial vs. general equilibrium - Economics Stack Exchange
The main difference between partial and general equilibrium models is, that partial equilibrium models assume that what happens on the market one wants to analyze has no effect on other markets.
q-n-a  stackex  explanation  jargon  comparison  concept  models  economics  micro  macro  equilibrium  supply-demand  markets  methodology  competition 
november 2017 by nhaliday
As a foundation for this study, I organized the collection of village-level panel data on violent actors, managing teams of surveyors, village elders, and households in 380 war-torn areas of DRC. I introduce optimal taxation theory to the decision of violent actors to establish local monopolies of violence. The value of such decision hinges on their ability to tax the local population. A sharp rise in the global demand for coltan, a bulky commodity used in the electronics industry, leads violent actors to impose monopolies of violence and taxation in coltan sites, which persist even years after demand collapses. A similar rise in the demand for gold, easier to conceal and more difficult to tax, does not. However, the groups who nevertheless control gold sites are more likely to respond by undertaking investments in fiscal capacity, consistent with the difficulty to observe gold, and with well-documented trajectories of state formation in Europe (Ardant, 1975). The findings support the view that the expected revenue from taxation, determined in particular by tax base elasticity and costly investments in fiscal capacity, can explain the stages of state formation preceding the states as we recognize them today.
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  broad-econ  political-econ  polisci  leviathan  north-weingast-like  unintended-consequences  institutions  microfoundations  econometrics  empirical  government  taxes  rent-seeking  supply-demand  incentives  property-rights  africa  developing-world  peace-violence  interests  longitudinal  natural-experiment  endogenous-exogenous  archaeology  trade  world  feudal  roots  ideas  cost-benefit  econ-productivity  traces 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Friedrich von Hayek, “The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945)
“The price system is just one of those formations which man has learned to use ... Through it not only a division of labor but also a coördinated utilization of resources based on an equally divided knowledge has become possible.”

“there is beyond question a body of very important but unorganized knowledge which cannot possibly be called scientific in the sense of knowledge of general rules: the knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place. It is with respect to this that practically every individual has some advantage over all others because he possesses unique information of which beneficial use might be made”
pdf  org:junk  org:ngo  randy-ayndy  essay  big-peeps  economics  rhetoric  classic  markets  capitalism  coordination  info-dynamics  knowledge  bounded-cognition  supply-demand  decentralized  civil-liberty  institutions  quotes  reason 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?
Parents prefer schools that enroll high-achieving peers, and these schools generate larger improvements in short- and long-run student outcomes. We find no relationship between preferences and school effectiveness after controlling for peer quality.
study  economics  sociology  education  human-capital  parenting  correlation  supply-demand  ranking  higher-ed  phalanges  impetus  field-study  nyc  usa  northeast  judgement 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Health Services as Credence Goods: A Field Experiment by Felix Gottschalk, Wanda Mimra, Christian Waibel :: SSRN
A test patient who does not need treatment is sent to 180 dentists to receive treatment recommendations. In the experiment, we vary two factors: First, the information that the patient signals to the dentist. Second, we vary the perceived socioeconomic status (SES) of the test patient. Furthermore, we collected data to construct several measures of short- and long-term demand and competition as well as dentist and practice characteristics. We find that the patient receives an overtreatment recommendation in _more than every fourth visit_. A low short-term demand, indicating excess capacities, leads to significantly more overtreatment recommendations. Physician density and their price level, however, do not have a significant effect on overtreatment. Furthermore, we observe significantly less overtreatment recommendations for the patient with higher SES compared to lower SES under standard information. More signalled information however does not significantly reduce overtreatment.

How much dentists are ethically concerned about overtreatment; a vignette-based survey in Switzerland:
Are Dentists Overtreating Your Teeth?:
Have you had a rash of fillings after years of healthy teeth? The culprit may be “microcavities,” and not every dentist thinks they need to be treated, reports today’s Science Times.
How Dentists Rip Us Off:
study  economics  micro  field-study  markets  trust  healthcare  dental  crooked  supply-demand  incentives  class  signaling  🎩  trivia  cocktail  europe  germanic  medicine  meta:medicine  integrity  ethics  free-riding  data  scale  inequality  news  org:rec  org:health  info-econ  pdf  org:mag  left-wing  multi 
october 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

2011  2012  2013  2016-election  2016  :/  ability-competence  academia  academics  accretion  accuracy  acmtariat  advice  africa  age-of-discovery  ai  albion  allodium  alt-inst  amazon  ammunition  analogy  analysis  and  anglosphere  anomie  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  applications  arbitrage  archaeology  aristos  arrows  art  article  asia  asset  assimilation  audio  austerity  authoritarianism  automation  aws  backup  balance  barackobama  barons  basel  basel3  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  behavioral  benbernake  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  biophysical-econ  bitcoin  blackswan  boe  boj  book  books  boom  bounded-cognition  britain  broad-econ  brussels  bubble  bubbles  business  buy  c(pp)  c:*  calculator  california  caltech  cancer  capital  capitalism  career  cartel  causation  chart  checklists  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  clarity  class  classic  clever-rats  cliff  cliometrics  cloud  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cold-war  college  coming-apart  commentary  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computation  concept  conceptual-vocab  confidence  confluence  conquest-empire  consequences  consumerism  context  contrarianism  coordination  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  cracker-econ  creditcrunch  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  crisis  critique  crooked  cryptocurrency  cs  cultural-dynamics  culture  current-events  cycle  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  data  database  davidcameron  dbs  death  debate  debt  debtoverhang  decentralized  decision-making  deflation  deflationary  degrees-of-freedom  deleveraging  delicious  demand-curve  demand  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  density  dental  depression  descriptive  detail-architecture  developing-world  devops  diet  differential  dignity  dirty-hands  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  dumb-ml  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  ecb  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economic-thought  economic  economics  economy  econotariat  ecosystem  eden  education  efficiency  eh  election2012  elections  elite  empirical  employment  emu  encyclopedic  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  engineering  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entrepeneurship  entrepreneurialism  environment  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethics  eu  euro  europe  events  evidence-based  evidence  evolution  evopsych  exit-voice  expansionism  explanans  explanation  externalities  facebook  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fat  faultlines  fda  fed  fermi  fertility  feudal  field-study  finance  financial  fiscal  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  folly  food  for  foreign-policy  frameworks  free-riding  frequency  frontend  frontier  funding  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  gallic  games  garett-jones  gavisti  gedanken  gender-diff  gender  geography  geopolitics  georgeosborne  germanic  germany  gfc  gilens-page  global-economy  global  globalisation  glut  gnon  gnxp  golang  gold  goldstandard  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  gray-econ  great-powers  greatdepression  greatrecession  greece  gregory-clark  grokkability-clarity  group-level  growth-econ  gt-101  h2o  hanson  hardware  hari-seldon  health  healthcare  help  heterodox  hidden-motives  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  housing  hsu  hughhendry  human-capital  hunt  ideas  identity-politics  identity  ideology  idk  imbalance  imbalances  impetus  impro  incentives  india  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  inflation  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  infrastructure  innovation  input-output  insight  instagram  institutions  integrity  intelligence  interest  interests  interface-compatibility  internet  intersection-connectedness  intersection  intervention  interview  intricacy  investing  iran  iraq-syria  iron-age  israel  japan  jargon  javascript  jobs  judgement  jvm  knowledge  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  larry-summers  latin-america  law  leadership  left-wing  legacy  len:short  lending  lens  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  libraries  life-history  links  liquidity-trap  liquidity  list  lived-experience  local-global  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longitudinal  lost  lostdecade  lostgeneration  low-hanging  ltro  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  manifolds  map-territory  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  market-power  markets  matching  math  mbs  measure  measurement  mechanism-design  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  mena  meta-analysis  meta:medicine  metabolic  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  micro  microfoundations  migration  military  minimum-viable  mobile  mobility  models  modern  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moments  monetarism  monetary-fiscal  monetary  money-for-time  money  mostly-modern  multi  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  negative  neocons  network-structure  neuro  new-normal  new  news  nibble  nihil  nirp  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  noahpinion  nordic  normal  north-weingast-like  northeast  nostalgia  nuclear  null-result  nutrition  nyc  obesity  objektbuch  oceans  old-anglo  opertationtwist  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  orfe  org:biz  org:bv  org:com  org:data  org:econlib  org:edu  org:gov  org:health  org:junk  org:lite  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:rec  org:sci  organizing  outcome-risk  output-gap  paleocon  parenting  pareto  parsimony  path-dependence  patho-altruism  patience  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  personal-finance  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  phd  phys-energy  physics  pic  piketty  piracy  planning  plots  pls  poast  podcast  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy-makers  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  political  politicalscience  politics  poll  pop-diff  population  power-law  pre-2013  prediction  prejudice  presentation  presidency  prioritizing  priors-posteriors  pro-rata  programming  progression  propaganda  property-rights  property  proposal  proptrading  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoe  psychology  public-health  putnam-like  python  q-n-a  qe  qe2  qe3  qra  quality  quantitative-qualitative  questions  quotes  race  randy-ayndy  ranking  rate  rationality  ratty  real  realness  realpolitik  reason  rebalancing  recent-selection  recession  recovery  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflation  reflection  regression-to-mean  regression  regularizer  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  repression  revealed-preference  review  revolution  rhetoric  richardkoo  right-wing  roots  rot  russia  s:*  sampling-bias  sapiens  savings  scale  scheme  scholar  science-anxiety  science  scitariat  scott-sumner  search  securities  selection  self-interest  sequential  sex  sheet  shift  shortage  signaling  simulation  sinosphere  skeleton  slides  slippery-slope  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-science  social-structure  social  society  sociology  sovereign  spearhead  speculation  speculative  speedometer  spock  sports  ssc  stackex  stagnation  startups  statesmen  status  sticky-wages  stimulus  stock-flow  stories  strategy  straussian  street-fighting  structural  structure  study  stylized-facts  subculture  subsidies  success  summary  summer-2016  super  supply  survey  sv  symmetry  synthesis  tail  tails  taxes  teaching  tech-infrastructure  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  temperature  terrorism  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory  theos  thermo  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  thucydides  time-preference  time-series  time-use  time  to  todo  toobigtofail  tools  top-n  traces  trade  tradedeficit  tradeoffs  trading  tradition  trees  trends  tribalism  trivia  troll  trust  truth  turchin  tv  twitter  types  ubiquity  uk  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unconventional  unemployment  unintended-consequences  unintended  university  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  vaclav-smil  vague  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  vc  venturecapital  visualization  volo-avolo  wallstreet  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  web  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wire-guided  woah  wonkish  workflow  working-stiff  world-war  world  yak-shaving  yc  ycombinator  yield  youth  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  zirp  zynga  🌞  🎓  🎩  🐸  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark: