stock-flow   35

A genetic map of the world – Gene Expression
The above map is from a new preprint on the patterns of genetic variation as a function of geography for humans, Genetic landscapes reveal how human genetic diversity aligns with geography. The authors assemble an incredibly large dataset to generate these figures. The orange zones are “troughs” of gene flow. Basically barriers to gene flow.  It is no great surprise that so many of the barriers correlate with rivers, mountains, and deserts. But the aim of this sort of work seems to be to make precise and quantitative intuitions which are normally expressed verbally.
gnxp  scitariat  commentary  bio  preprint  study  summary  genetics  genomics  pic  data  maps  visualization  stock-flow  gene-flow  walls  world  africa  europe  MENA  india  asia  china  japan  korea  anglo  developing-world  russia  sapiens  gavisti  population-genetics  geography  🌞  mediterranean  britain  oceans  race  tribalism 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Autoignition temperature - Wikipedia
The autoignition temperature or kindling point of a substance is the lowest temperature at which it spontaneously ignites in normal atmosphere without an external source of ignition, such as a flame or spark. This temperature is required to supply the activation energy needed for combustion. The temperature at which a chemical ignites decreases as the pressure or oxygen concentration increases. It is usually applied to a combustible fuel mixture.

The time {\displaystyle t_{\text{ig}}} {\displaystyle t_{\text{ig}}} it takes for a material to reach its autoignition temperature {\displaystyle T_{\text{ig}}} {\displaystyle T_{\text{ig}}} when exposed to a heat flux {\displaystyle q''} {\displaystyle q''} is given by the following equation:
nibble  wiki  reference  concept  metrics  identity  physics  thermo  temperature  time  stock-flow  phys-energy  chemistry  article  street-fighting  fire  magnitude  data  list 
november 2017 by nhaliday
German Election: The AfD Profits from Non-Voters and Merkel Defectors | ZEIT ONLINE
The conservatives and center-left suffered huge losses while the right-wing populist AfD became Saxony's most powerful party. We analyzed the data so you don’t have to.

The anti-Muslim AfD just scored big in Germany’s election. What does this mean for German Muslims?: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/09/25/the-anti-muslim-afd-just-scored-big-in-germanys-election-what-does-this-mean-for-german-muslims/

The Germans Turn Right: http://www.weeklystandard.com/the-germans-turn-right/article/2009880
- Christopher Caldwell

The German Election—A Conservative Analysis: http://quillette.com/2017/09/28/german-election-conservative-analysis/
As traditional European conservatives were pushed Left-ward by media and academic communities on immigration and social and religious rights, the vacuum was filled by the rise of blut-und-boden far right parties all across Europe. In a Sophoclean twist of fate, the European political center and center-Left is now dying, thanks to the very person that liberals like to portray as the “new leader” of the free world.

later:
The End of German Stability: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/the_good_fight/2017/11/germany_s_coalition_talks_collapse_threatening_stability.html
The collapse of coalition talks bodes badly for Angela Merkel, and for democratic governments everywhere.

Austrian legislative election, 2017: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_legislative_election,_2017
Austria heads for right-leaning coalition: http://www.politico.eu/article/austria-heads-for-right-leaning-coalition-early-projections/
https://twitter.com/almodozo/status/919662426966118403
https://archive.is/4vkG6
Finally an election where the far right actually did best (barely) among youngest voters: FPÖ got 30% of the <30 vote. SPÖ voters old #nrw17

European Populism Is Here to Stay: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/20/opinion/european-populism-is-here-to-stay.html

Czech Republic:
http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/world/populist-billionaire-party-wins-big-czech-republic-article-1.3578312
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-czech-election-farright/far-right-scores-surprise-success-in-czech-election-idUSKBN1CQ0T3

Dealing with the Dignity Deficit: https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/04/05/dealing-dignity-deficit/
Are the grievances tearing our societies apart at this hyper-polarized moment insurmountable? A week with some AfD voters and politicians gave me a measure of hope.

More importantly, a generous welfare state appears at best to be an inadequate solution to the problems and pathologies of checker-boarded economic dislocation. The pesky question of dignity remains: Despite what boosters of a universal basic income try to tell us, our modern sense of purpose and identity remains closely tied to what we “do” for a living. Making disempowered people more comfortable does not necessarily make them less frustrated.

...

But since when are openness, cosmopolitanism, and diversity intrinsic to a complete definition of liberalism? They make no significant appearance in any of the foundational texts of liberal political thought. They are merely the product of the demands that globalization and urbanization places upon us “anywheres”, which we in turn try to wedge into the liberal canon in order to erase any discomfort we may feel about change pulling the ideological rug out from under our feet. Historical accounts of earlier periods of urbanization are rightly dispassionate in describing people flocking to cities out of economic want. And they correctly identify the emergence of the middle class and its attendant values as the product of complex factors interacting in these new circumstances. We instead now disfigure analysis into a form or moral self-congratulation.
news  org:euro  data  analysis  visualization  europe  germanic  politics  elections  postmortem  demographics  class  compensation  urban  education  correlation  gender  gender-diff  populism  stock-flow  flux-stasis  nationalism-globalism  phalanges  multi  org:rec  islam  migration  migrant-crisis  shift  org:mag  right-wing  journos-pundits  douthatish  org:popup  strategy  coalitions  current-events  wiki  tracker  twitter  social  commentary  eastern-europe  backup  age-generation  org:lite  japan  asia  prediction  long-short-run  org:local  urban-rural  EU  dignity  open-closed  redistribution  welfare-state  labor  economics  roots  ideology 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Lecture 3: Global Energy Cycle
solar flux, albedo, greenhouse effect, energy balance, vertical distribution of energy, tilt and seasons
pdf  slides  nibble  physics  electromag  space  earth  sky  atmosphere  environment  temperature  stock-flow  data  magnitude  scale  phys-energy  distribution  oscillation  cycles  lectures  geography 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Levels or changes?: Ethnic context, immigration and the UK Independence party vote
It argues that high levels of established ethnic minorities reduce opposition to immigration and support for UKIP among White Britons. Conversely, more rapid ethnic changes increase opposition to immigration and support for UKIP. Longitudinal data demonstrates that these effects are not produced by self-selection.
study  sociology  politics  polisci  government  elections  britain  eric-kaufmann  causation  endo-exo  migration  diversity  putnam-like  populism  longitudinal  stock-flow  marginal  us-them  identity-politics  flux-stasis  wonkish  phalanges  endogenous-exogenous 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Why isn't ethanol used more widely as an automobile fuel? - Quora
Some of these are straightforward engineering challenges, but others are fundamental and insurmountable flaws.

Simply put, corn-based ethanol is bad energy policy. We're already at the maximum blending level in the US (10%) where any further increases will likely harm consumers. There's little environmental OR energy security benefit to ethanol, because it takes about a gallon worth of fossil fuels to produce a gallon of ethanol. (Studies vary on the exact number, ranging from an EROI of 0.8 to 1.3, but the average is zero net gain.)

Basically US ethanol blending is an enormous make-work scheme for big corporate farm interests and Iowa co-ops. It is an enormous sop to the key farm lobby in early Presidential Primary states. That's the only real reason we make vast quantities of corn-based ethanol and mandate its use in the US. Nobody would want to buy the stuff if it weren't for legal blending requirements imposed on refiners and fuel distributors.

Again, some countries can do ethanol better. Climate is important to biofuels. But it is not a good fuel choice for most nations.

- Ryan Carlyle
q-n-a  qra  expert  explanation  ethanol  energy-resources  stock-flow  transportation  heavy-industry  biophysical-econ  expert-experience 
may 2017 by nhaliday
What is the likelihood we run out of fossil fuels before we can switch to renewable energy sources? - Quora
1) Can we de-carbon our primary energy production before global warming severely damages human civilization? In the short term this means switching from coal to natural gas, and in the long term replacing both coal and gas generation with carbon-neutral sources such as renewables or nuclear. The developed world cannot accomplish this alone -- it requires worldwide action, and most of the pain will be felt by large developing nations such as India and China. Ultimately this is a political and economic problem. The technology to eliminate most carbon from electricity generation exists today at fairly reasonable cost.

2) Can we develop a better transportation energy storage technology than oil, before market forces drive prices to levels that severely damage the global economy? Fossil fuels are a source of energy, but primarily we use oil in vehicles because it is an exceptional energy TRANSPORT medium. Renewables cannot meet this need because battery technology is completely uncompetitive for most fuel consumers -- prices are an order of magnitude too high and energy density is an order of magnitude too low for adoption of all-electric vehicles outside developed-world urban centers. (Heavy trucking, cargo ships, airplanes, etc will never be all-electric with chemical batteries. There are hard physical limits to the energy density of electrochemical reactions. I'm not convinced passenger vehicles will go all-electric in our lifetimes either.) There are many important technologies in existence that will gain increasing traction in the next 50 years such as natural gas automobiles and improved gas/electric hybrids, but ultimately we need a better way to store power than fossil fuels. _This is a deep technological problem that will not be solved by incremental improvements in battery chemistry or any process currently in the R&D pipeline_.

Based on these two unresolved issues, _I place the odds of us avoiding fossil-fuel-related energy issues (major climate or economic damage) at less than 10%_. The impetus for the major changes required will not be sufficiently urgent until the world is seeing severe and undeniable impacts. Civilization will certainly survive -- but there will be no small amount of human suffering during the transition to whatever comes next.

- Ryan Carlyle
q-n-a  qra  expert  energy-resources  climate-change  environment  risk  civilization  nihil  prediction  threat-modeling  world  futurism  biophysical-econ  stock-flow  transportation  technology  economics  long-short-run  no-go  speedometer  modernity  expert-experience 
may 2017 by nhaliday
[1502.05274] How predictable is technological progress?
Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting experiments we show that this works well, making it possible to collapse the forecast errors for many different technologies at different time horizons onto the same universal distribution. This is valuable because it allows us to make forecasts for any given technology with a clear understanding of the quality of the forecasts. As a practical demonstration we make distributional forecasts at different time horizons for solar photovoltaic modules, and show how our method can be used to estimate the probability that a given technology will outperform another technology at a given point in the future.

model:
- p_t = unit price of tech
- log(p_t) = y_0 - μt + ∑_{i <= t} n_i
- n_t iid noise process
preprint  study  economics  growth-econ  innovation  discovery  technology  frontier  tetlock  meta:prediction  models  time  definite-planning  stylized-facts  regression  econometrics  magnitude  energy-resources  phys-energy  money  cost-benefit  stats  data-science  🔬  ideas  speedometer  multiplicative  methodology  stochastic-processes  time-series  stock-flow  iteration-recursion  org:mat 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Charles Joseph Minard - Wikipedia
Charles Minard's map of Napoleon's disastrous Russian campaign of 1812. The graphic is notable for its representation in two dimensions of six types of data: the number of Napoleon's troops; distance; temperature; the latitude and longitude; direction of travel; and location relative to specific dates.[2]
people  history  early-modern  europe  gallic  war  russia  dataviz  visualization  wiki  maps  stock-flow  military  classic 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Overview of current development in electrical energy storage technologies and the application potential in power system operation
- An overview of the state-of-the-art in Electrical Energy Storage (EES) is provided.
- A comprehensive analysis of various EES technologies is carried out.
- An application potential analysis of the reviewed EES technologies is presented.
- The presented synthesis to EES technologies can be used to support future R&D and deployment.

Prospects and Limits of Energy Storage in Batteries: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/jz5026273
study  survey  state-of-art  energy-resources  heavy-industry  chemistry  applications  electromag  stock-flow  wonkish  frontier  technology  biophysical-econ  the-world-is-just-atoms  🔬  phys-energy  ideas  speedometer  dirty-hands  multi 
april 2017 by nhaliday

related tags

acm  africa  age-generation  algorithms  alien-character  allodium  analysis  anglo  anglosphere  antiquity  applications  approximation  archaeology  architecture  article  asia  atmosphere  attaq  backup  barons  big-picture  bio  biophysical-econ  britain  broad-econ  business  capital  capitalism  causation  charity  chart  chemistry  china  civic  civilization  class  classic  climate-change  coalitions  combo-optimization  commentary  compensation  concept  constraint-satisfaction  correlation  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  course  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  culture  curiosity  current-events  cycles  data-science  data  dataviz  debt  deep-learning  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  demographics  density  developing-world  diaspora  dignity  direction  dirty-hands  discovery  distributed  distribution  diversity  diy  douthatish  duality  dynamic  dynamical  early-modern  earth  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econometrics  economics  education  effective-altruism  efficiency  elections  electromag  elite  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  environment  envy  equilibrium  eric-kaufmann  error  essay  ethanol  eu  europe  expert-experience  expert  explanation  exposition  facebook  fertility  film  finance  fire  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  food  frontier  futurism  gallic  gavisti  gender-diff  gender  gene-flow  genetics  genomics  geography  geometry  germanic  gnxp  google  government  graph-theory  graphs  greedy  ground-up  group-level  growth-econ  h2o  hanson  healthcare  heavy-industry  history  hmm  hn  human-capital  ideas  identity-politics  identity  ideology  ieee  india  inequality  infographic  innovation  internet  iq  iron-age  islam  iteration-recursion  japan  journos-pundits  korea  labor  latin-america  lecture-notes  lectures  let-me-see  linear-programming  list  long-short-run  longitudinal  lower-bounds  luca-trevisan  magnitude  malaise  managerial-state  maps  marginal  market-power  matching  math.co  math.mg  math  mechanics  mediterranean  mena  meta:prediction  meta:war  methodology  metrics  migrant-crisis  migration  military  mit  mobility  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  monetary-fiscal  money  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  network-structure  news  nibble  nihil  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  numerics  objektbuch  oceans  oly-programming  oly  open-closed  optimate  optimization  org:anglo  org:biz  org:data  org:edu  org:euro  org:junk  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:mat  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  oscillation  other-xtian  overflow  pdf  peace-violence  people  performance  phalanges  phys-energy  physics  pic  piketty  policy  polisci  politics  pop-diff  population-genetics  population  populism  postmortem  pre-ww2  prediction  prepping  preprint  presentation  pro-rata  protestant-catholic  public-health  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  quantitative-qualitative  race  rand-approx  ratty  redistribution  reference  regression  regulation  relaxation  religion  right-wing  risk  roots  rounding  russia  safety  sapiens  scale  science  scitariat  selection  shift  short-circuit  sky  slides  social  sociology  space  speaking  speed  speedometer  stagnation  stanford  startups  state-of-art  stats  stochastic-processes  stories  strategy  street-fighting  study  stylized-facts  summary  survey  taxes  tcs  tcstariat  technocracy  technology  temperance  temperature  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-trenches  the-world-is-just-atoms  thermo  thinking  threat-modeling  time-series  time  tracker  trade  tradition  transportation  trends  tribalism  trivia  trump  twitter  unaffiliated  unintended-consequences  unit  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  vaclav-smil  video  visualization  volo-avolo  walls  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  welfare-state  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wonkish  world  zeitgeist  🌞  🔬 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: