spearhead   211

« earlier    

Manifold – man·i·fold /ˈmanəˌfōld/ many and various.
Silicon Valley (Big Tech and startups and VC)
Financial Markets
Academia (Good, Bad, and Ugly)
The View from Europe
The View from Asia (Life in PRC? Fear and Loathing of PRC?)
Frontiers of Science (AI, Genomics, Physics, ...)
Frontiers of Rationality
The Billionaire Life
What Millennials think us old folks don't understand
True things that you are not allowed to say
Bubbles that are ready to pop?
Under-appreciated Genius?
Overrated Crap and Frauds?
podcast  audio  stream  hsu  scitariat  science  frontier  interview  physics  genetics  biotech  technology  bio  interdisciplinary  spearhead  multi  genomics  sv  tech  finance  academia  europe  EU  china  asia  wealth  class  fighting  age-generation  westminster  censorship  truth  cycles  economics  people  realness  arbitrage  subculture  ratty  rationality 
17 days ago by nhaliday
Adam Smith, David Hume, Liberalism, and Esotericism - Call for Papers - Elsevier
A very good economics journal--famously an outlet for rigorous, outside the box thinking--is publishing a special issue on hidden meanings in the work of two of the world's greatest thinkers.

Another sign the new Straussian age is upon us: Bayesians update accordingly!
big-peeps  old-anglo  economics  hmm  roots  politics  ideology  political-econ  philosophy  straussian  history  early-modern  britain  anglo  speculation  questions  events  multi  twitter  social  commentary  discussion  backup  econotariat  garett-jones  spearhead 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Team *Decorations Until Epiphany* on Twitter: "@RoundSqrCupola maybe just C https://t.co/SFPXb3qrAE"
Remember ‘BRICs’? Now it’s just ICs.
maybe just C
Solow predicts that if 2 countries have the same TFP, then the poorer nation should grow faster. But poorer India grows more slowly than China.

Solow thinking leads one to suspect India has substantially lower TFP.

Recent growth is great news, but alas 5 years isn't the long run!

FWIW under Solow conditional convergence assumptions--historically robust--the fact that a country as poor as India grows only a few % faster than the world average is a sign they'll end up poorer than S Europe.

see his spreadsheet here: http://mason.gmu.edu/~gjonesb/SolowForecast.xlsx
spearhead  econotariat  garett-jones  unaffiliated  twitter  social  discussion  india  asia  china  economics  macro  growth-econ  econ-metrics  wealth  wealth-of-nations  convergence  world  developing-world  trends  time-series  cjones-like  prediction  multi  backup  the-bones  long-short-run  europe  mediterranean  comparison  simulation  econ-productivity  great-powers  thucydides  broad-econ  pop-diff  microfoundations  🎩  marginal  hive-mind  rindermann-thompson  hari-seldon  tools  calculator  estimate 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Global Evidence on Economic Preferences
- Benjamin Enke et al

This paper studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey dataset of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust from 80,000 individuals in 76 countries. The data reveal substantial heterogeneity in preferences across countries, but even larger within-country heterogeneity. Across individuals, preferences vary with age, gender, and cognitive ability, yet these relationships appear partly country specific. At the country level, the data reveal correlations between preferences and bio-geographic and cultural variables such as agricultural suitability, language structure, and religion. Variation in preferences is also correlated with economic outcomes and behaviors. Within countries and subnational regions, preferences are linked to individual savings decisions, labor market choices, and prosocial behaviors. Across countries, preferences vary with aggregate outcomes ranging from per capita income, to entrepreneurial activities, to the frequency of armed conflicts.


This paper explores these questions by making use of the core features of the GPS: (i) coverage of 76 countries that represent approximately 90 percent of the world population; (ii) representative population samples within each country for a total of 80,000 respondents, (iii) measures designed to capture time preference, risk preference, altruism, positive reciprocity, negative reciprocity, and trust, based on an ex ante experimental validation procedure (Falk et al., 2016) as well as pre-tests in culturally heterogeneous countries, (iv) standardized elicitation and translation techniques through the pre-existing infrastructure of a global polling institute, Gallup. Upon publication, the data will be made publicly available online. The data on individual preferences are complemented by a comprehensive set of covariates provided by the Gallup World Poll 2012.


The GPS preference measures are based on twelve survey items, which were selected in an initial survey validation study (see Falk et al., 2016, for details). The validation procedure involved conducting multiple incentivized choice experiments for each preference, and testing the relative abilities of a wide range of different question wordings and formats to predict behavior in these choice experiments. The particular items used to construct the GPS preference measures were selected based on optimal performance out of menus of alternative items (for details see Falk et al., 2016). Experiments provide a valuable benchmark for selecting survey items, because they can approximate the ideal choice situations, specified in economic theory, in which individuals make choices in controlled decision contexts. Experimental measures are very costly, however, to implement in a globally representative sample, whereas survey measures are much less costly.⁴ Selecting survey measures that can stand in for incentivized revealed preference measures leverages the strengths of both approaches.

The Preference Survey Module: A Validated Instrument for Measuring Risk, Time, and Social Preferences: http://ftp.iza.org/dp9674.pdf

Table 1: Survey items of the GPS

Figure 1: World maps of patience, risk taking, and positive reciprocity.
Figure 2: World maps of negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust.

Figure 3: Gender coefficients by country. For each country, we regress the respective preference on gender, age and its square, and subjective math skills, and plot the resulting gender coefficients as well as their significance level. In order to make countries comparable, each preference was standardized (z-scores) within each country before computing the coefficients.

Figure 4: Cognitive ability coefficients by country. For each country, we regress the respective preference on gender, age and its square, and subjective math skills, and plot the resulting coefficients on subjective math skills as well as their significance level. In order to make countries comparable, each preference was standardized (z-scores) within each country before computing the coefficients.

Figure 5: Age profiles by OECD membership.

Table 6: Pairwise correlations between preferences and geographic and cultural variables

Figure 10: Distribution of preferences at individual level.
Figure 11: Distribution of preferences at country level.

interesting digression:
D Discussion of Measurement Error and Within- versus Between-Country Variation
study  dataset  data  database  let-me-see  economics  growth-econ  broad-econ  microfoundations  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  culture  psychology  behavioral-econ  values  🎩  pdf  piracy  world  spearhead  general-survey  poll  group-level  within-group  variance-components  🌞  correlation  demographics  age-generation  gender  iq  cooperate-defect  time-preference  temperance  labor  wealth  wealth-of-nations  entrepreneurialism  outcome-risk  altruism  trust  patience  developing-world  maps  visualization  n-factor  things  phalanges  personality  regression  gender-diff  pop-diff  geography  usa  canada  anglo  europe  the-great-west-whale  nordic  anglosphere  MENA  africa  china  asia  sinosphere  latin-america  self-report  hive-mind  GT-101  realness  long-short-run  endo-exo  signal-noise  communism  japan  korea  methodology  measurement  org:ngo  white-paper  endogenous-exogenous  within-without  hari-seldon 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Why are children in the same family so different from one another? - PubMed - NCBI
- Plomin et al

The article has three goals: (1) To describe quantitative genetic methods and research that lead to the conclusion that nonshared environment is responsible for most environmental variation relevant to psychological development, (2) to discuss specific nonshared environmental influences that have been studied to date, and (3) to consider relationships between nonshared environmental influences and behavioral differences between children in the same family. The reason for presenting this article in BBS is to draw attention to the far-reaching implications of finding that psychologically relevant environmental influences make children in a family different from, not similar to, one another.
study  essay  article  survey  spearhead  psychology  social-psych  biodet  behavioral-gen  🌞  methodology  environmental-effects  signal-noise  systematic-ad-hoc  composition-decomposition  pdf  piracy  volo-avolo  developmental  iq  cog-psych  variance-components  GxE  nonlinearity  twin-study  personality  sib-study 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Does Learning to Read Improve Intelligence? A Longitudinal Multivariate Analysis in Identical Twins From Age 7 to 16
Stuart Richie, Bates, Plomin

SEM: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4354297/figure/fig03/

The variance explained by each path in the diagrams included here can be calculated by squaring its path weight. To take one example, reading differences at age 12 in the model shown in Figure​Figure33 explain 7% of intelligence differences at age 16 (.262). However, since our measures are of differences, they are likely to include substantial amounts of noise: Measurement error may produce spurious differences. To remove this error variance, we can take an estimate of the reliability of the measures (generally high, since our measures are normed, standardized tests), which indicates the variance expected purely by the reliability of the measure, and subtract it from the observed variance between twins in our sample. Correcting for reliability in this way, the effect size estimates are somewhat larger; to take the above example, the reliability-corrected effect size of age 12 reading differences on age 16 intelligence differences is around 13% of the “signal” variance. It should be noted that the age 12 reading differences themselves are influenced by many previous paths from both reading and intelligence, as illustrated in Figure​Figure33.


The present study provided compelling evidence that improvements in reading ability, themselves caused purely by the nonshared environment, may result in improvements in both verbal and nonverbal cognitive ability, and may thus be a factor increasing cognitive diversity within families (Plomin, 2011). These associations are present at least as early as age 7, and are not—to the extent we were able to test this possibility—driven by differences in reading exposure. Since reading is a potentially remediable ability, these findings have implications for reading instruction: Early remediation of reading problems might not only aid in the growth of literacy, but may also improve more general cognitive abilities that are of critical importance across the life span.

Does Reading Cause Later Intelligence? Accounting for Stability in Models of Change: http://sci-hub.tw/10.1111/cdev.12669
Results from a state–trait model suggest that reported effects of reading ability on later intelligence may be artifacts of previously uncontrolled factors, both environmental in origin and stable during this developmental period, influencing both constructs throughout development.
study  albion  scitariat  spearhead  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  iq  intelligence  eden  language  psych-architecture  longitudinal  twin-study  developmental  environmental-effects  studying  🌞  retrofit  signal-noise  intervention  causation  graphs  graphical-models  flexibility  britain  neuro-nitgrit  effect-size  variance-components  measurement  multi  sequential  time  composition-decomposition  biodet  behavioral-gen  direct-indirect  systematic-ad-hoc  debate  hmm  pdf  piracy  flux-stasis 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Love Thy Neighbor? Ethnoracial Diversity and Trust Reexamined: American Journal of Sociology: Vol 121, No 3
For whites, heterogeneity means more out-group neighbors; for nonwhites, heterogeneity means more in-group neighbors. Therefore, separate analyses were conducted by ethnoracial groups. Only for whites does living among out-group members—not in diverse communities per se—negatively predict trust.

doesn't really change the essential lesson
study  polisci  sociology  anthropology  trust  cohesion  diversity  putnam-like  🎩  microfoundations  tribalism  us-them  n-factor  anomie  social-capital  malaise  stylized-facts  the-bones  cooperate-defect  identity-politics  spearhead  wonkish  intricacy 
september 2017 by nhaliday
A cross-country empirical test of cognitive abilities and innovation nexus - Munich Personal RePEc Archive
In this study we analyze the relationship between national cognitive abilities and innovational output using data from 124 countries of the world. By employing cross-country IQ scores traditionally used by psychological literature to represent national intelligence, and Economic Complexity Index as a novel measure of innovation, our study shows that there is a positive connection between them. We use a variety of tests to check the robustness of the nexus. Overall, our findings indicate that more intelligent nations export more sophisticated and diverse products to the world market and thus are more innovative. Therefore, developing countries should consider investing in human capital and related institutions if they are to boost innovative capabilities and move up the technology ladder in producing and exporting sophisticated and varied lines of products. This should bring them greater economic diversity which could be a right lever in mitigating negative external shocks.
study  economics  broad-econ  psychology  cog-psych  growth-econ  wealth-of-nations  innovation  pop-diff  rindermann-thompson  diversity  human-capital  hive-mind  iq  correlation  entropy-like  wealth  the-world-is-just-atoms  🎩  econ-metrics  econometrics  world  group-level  spearhead  macro  stylized-facts  behavioral-econ  biophysical-econ  microfoundations  🌞  hari-seldon 
september 2017 by nhaliday
The Once and Future Khan | West Hunter
Razib Khan managed to get himself hired and fired by the New York Times over the course of a single day, an enviable record.  Having the Times look upon you with favor is a dubious honor in the first place, something like having a leper ask you out on a date – so a quick hire-and-fire is optimal. Something for the CV, but you never had to actually hang out with the slimebags.  Not as cool as ‘refused the Fields Medal’,  but pretty cool.

I am not Razib, and I disagree with him on some things of importance: but I look forward to the day, a few years hence, when Razib is still cursing the ignorant commenters, while the New York Times is one with the dust of Nineveh and Tyre.
west-hunter  scitariat  commentary  drama  gnxp  media  org:rec  track-record  spearhead 
september 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

2015  2016-election  2016  2017  :/  aaronson  ability-competence  abortion-contraception-embryo  absolute-relative  academia  acemoglu  acm  adna  advertising  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  agri-mindset  agriculture  albion  alesina  alien-character  alignment  alt-inst  altruism  analogy  analysis  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  anomie  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  applicability-prereqs  applications  arbitrage  archaeology  archaics  architecture  aristos  arms  arrows  art  article  asia  assimilation  assortative-mating  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  autism  automation  autor  axelrod  axioms  backup  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-right  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  blog  blowhards  books  bootstraps  bounded-cognition  brain-scan  branches  britain  broad-econ  business  c:***  c:**  calculator  california  canada  cancer  canon  capital  capitalism  cardio  causation  censorship  charity  chart  chicago  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  class  classic  climate-change  cliometrics  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  coming-apart  commentary  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  compressed-sensing  concept  confluence  confounding  conquest-empire  contrarianism  convergence  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  counterfactual  course  cracker-econ  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  crispr  critique  crooked  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  culture  current-events  curvature  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  database  dataset  death  debate  debt  decision-making  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  density  dependence-independence  descriptive  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  dignity  dimensionality  direct-indirect  direction  discipline  discovery  discrete  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  dominant-minority  douthatish  drama  dropbox  duty  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  easterly  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden  education  eea  effect-size  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  egt  elections  elite  embedded-cognition  embodied  emotion  empirical  encyclopedic  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entrepreneurialism  entropy-like  environment  environmental-effects  envy  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethics  ethnocentrism  eu  europe  events  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  exit-voice  expansionism  expectancy  expert-experience  expert  explanans  explanation  exposition  expression-survival  externalities  extrema  farmers-and-foragers  fermi  fertility  feudal  fiction  field-study  fighting  film  finance  fitness  flexibility  flux-stasis  flynn  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  formal-values  frontier  futurism  gallic  galor-like  garett-jones  gavisti  gcta  gedanken  gender-diff  gender  gene-flow  general-survey  generalization  genetic-correlation  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  geometry  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gibbon  gilens-page  gnon  gnxp  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  graphical-models  graphs  gray-econ  great-powers  gregory-clark  group-level  group-selection  growth-econ  gt-101  gwas  gwern  gxe  habit  hanson  hanushek  hard-tech  hari-seldon  harvard  health  heavy-industry  hetero-advantage  heterodox  heuristic  hidden-motives  high-dimension  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  homo-hetero  honor  houellebecq  housing  hsu  human-capital  humility  hypothesis-testing  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  iidness  illusion  immune  impact  impetus  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  innovation  input-output  insight  institutions  insurance  integrity  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intervention  interview  intricacy  iq  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  islam  israel  iteration-recursion  japan  journos-pundits  judaism  justice  kinship  knowledge  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  large-factor  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  lecture-notes  lee-kuan-yew  left-wing  legacy  legibility  len:long  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  levers  leviathan  life-history  linear-models  links  list  literature  lived-experience  local-global  lol  long-short-run  longevity  longitudinal  love-hate  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  map-territory  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  market-power  markets  math  maxim-gun  meaningness  measure  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  mena  mena4  meta-analysis  meta:medicine  meta:rhetoric  meta:war  metabolic  metabuch  methodology  metrics  micro  microfoundations  migrant-crisis  migration  military  missing-heritability  ml-map-e  mobility  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  murray  mutation  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  network-structure  neuro-nitgrit  neuro  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nihil  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  noble-lie  noblesse-oblige  nonlinearity  nordic  north-weingast-like  nuclear  null-result  nutrition  obesity  objektbuch  occam  occident  oceans  old-anglo  open-closed  operational  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:data  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edge  org:edu  org:junk  org:lite  org:mag  org:mat  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  organizing  orient  orwellian  other-xtian  outcome-risk  outliers  oxbridge  paleocon  papers  parallax  parasites-microbiome  parenting  parsimony  paternal-age  path-dependence  patho-altruism  patience  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  personality  persuasion  perturbation  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  pic  piketty  pinker  piracy  planning  plots  poast  podcast  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  pop-diff  pop-structure  popsci  population-genetics  population  populism  postmortem  power  practice  pragmatic  pre-ww2  prediction-markets  prediction  preference-falsification  prejudice  prepping  preprint  presentation  primitivism  prioritizing  priors-posteriors  privacy  pro-rata  problem-solving  profile  proofs  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoe  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  qtl  quality  quantitative-qualitative  questions  quixotic  quotes  race  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  reason  recent-selection  recommendations  recruiting  red-queen  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression-to-mean  regression  regularization  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  religion  rent-seeking  replication  reputation  retention  retrofit  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  rindermann-thompson  roots  rot  russia  s-factor  s:*  safety  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  schelling  science-anxiety  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  selection  self-interest  self-report  selfish-gene  sequential  sex  sexuality  shift  sib-study  signal-noise  signaling  simulation  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  slides  smoothness  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  social  society  sociology  space  sparsity  spatial  speculation  speed  speedometer  sports  spreading  ssc  stagnation  stanford  stat-power  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  status  stories  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  structure  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  subjective-objective  success  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  systematic-ad-hoc  szabo  tactics  tails  tainter  taxes  tech  technocracy  technology  temperance  temperature  terrorism  the-basilisk  the-bones  the-classics  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-self  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theory-practice  theos  thermo  things  thinking  thucydides  time-preference  time-series  time-use  time  tocqueville  todo  toolkit  tools  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  tradition  transportation  trends  tribalism  tricks  trivia  troll  trump  trust  truth  tumblr  turchin  twin-study  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  unit  universalism-particularism  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  video  virginia-dc  virtu  visualization  visuo  volo-avolo  von-neumann  walls  war  washington  wealth-of-nations  wealth  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  wild-ideas  wire-guided  wisdom  within-group  within-without  wonkish  working-stiff  world-war  world  x-not-about-y  xenobio  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  👽  🔬 

Copy this bookmark: