"The general idea behind the Hydra narrative in a broad sense (not just what Taleb has said/will say in October) is that hydras eat all unknown unknowns (not just Taleb’s famous black swans) for lunch. I have heard at least three different versions of this proposition in the last year. The narrative inspires social system designs that feed on uncertainty rather than being destroyed by it. Geoffrey West’s ideas about superlinearity are the empirical part of an attempt to construct an existence proof showing that such systems are actually possible."

"This deck of 91 full-colour cards names what skilled facilitators and other participants do to make things work.  The content is more specific than values and less specific than tips and techniques, cutting across existing methodologies with a designer's eye to capture the patterns that repeat.  The deck can be used to plan sesssions, reflect on and debrief them, provide guidance, and share responsibility for making the process go well.  It has the potential to provide a common reference point for practitioners, and serve as a framework and learning tool for those studying the field. "

"In this paper we define what we call an affinity system, which is a set of individuals, each with a vector characterizing its preference for all other individuals in the set. The preference of a member can be given either by a ranking of all members or by a weighted vector that defines the degrees of its affinity to others. Affinity systems are useful for modeling social systems as well as general data sets, as social interactions are often determined by affinities among the members. We also define a natural notion of (potentially overlapping) communities in an affinity system, in which the members of a given community collectively prefer each other to anyone else outside the community. Thus these communities are "self-determined" or "self-certified" by the affinity system. We provide a tight polynomial bound on the number of self-determined communities as a function of the robustness of the community. Moreover, we present a polynomial-time algorithm for enumerating these communities, as well as a local algorithm with a strong stochastic performance guarantee that can find a community in time nearly linear in the of size the community.…"

"We analyze emotionally annotated massive data from IRC (Internet Relay Chat) and model the dialogues between its participants by assuming that the driving force for the discussion is the entropy growth of emotional probability distribution. This process is claimed to be correlated to the emergence of the power-law distribution of the discussion lengths observed in the dialogues. We perform numerical simulations based on the noticed phenomenon obtaining a good agreement with the real data. Finally, we propose a method to artificially prolong the duration of the discussion that relies on the entropy of emotional probability distribution."

We propose a nonlinear voter model to study the emergence of global consensus in opinion dynamics. In our model, agent $i$ agrees with one of binary opinions with the probability that is a power function of the number of agents holding this opinion among agent $i$ and its nearest neighbors, where an adjustable parameter $alpha$ controls the effect of herd behavior on consensus. We find that there exists an optimal value of $alpha$ leading to the fastest consensus for lattices, random graphs, small-world networks and scale-free networks. Qualitative insights are obtained by examining the spatiotemporal evolution of the opinion clusters.

"…Yet we should be wary of getting wrapped up in the practicality of it all. For that hardly explains the mythology, the fact that this or that feature of the landscape is a sacred place, that the Songlines were traced by culture heroes of animal nature. None of that is necessary for the merely practical end of accurate time-keeping, though it might be useful to have a story to give some content to the narrative stream. To measure a long stretch of time, and thus a long distance, one could simply count to some sufficiently high number while walking and singing at a steady pace. Counting to an arbitrarly high value, however, is a relatively recent human accomplishment, one not present in preliterate cultures. One could also use very long strings of nonsense syllables, but they are very difficult to memorize accurately, as thousands of undergraduates in decades of psychological experiments know all too well; such things simply don’t have much purchase in the human brain. So one sings the song of a culture hero’s journey, while tracing that journey oneself, and in the process, one becomes that hero. We are in the world Val Geist hypothesized, in which our ancestors imitated the calls of animals in order to manipulate animal behavior. In the process of imagining the wilderness though the persona of an animal one assimilates that wilderness to the categories and needs of human culture."

"Gullibility is the principal cause of bubbles. Investors and the general public get snared by a “beautiful illusion” and throw caution to the wind. Attempts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that the authorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often (especially in recent years) been among the most gullible, and were cheerleaders for the exuberant behavior. Hence what is needed is an objective measure of gullibility."

His mistake was one of branding, only this time time he was not branding a vodka but himself. The picture he chose to paint for his potential paramour was one of safety and neutrality. Vodka-soda-lime is the drink of someone who wants to conceal taste, like ketchup on a steak. Her response, neat bourbon, should have told him in no uncertain terms that she was in the market for a more visceral experience.

B) When you’re done listening, listen to the silence. Trust me, people never finish talking. Once you’ve learned something from someone and they are done talking, then skip your turn to talk and let them talk again. They’ll do it. Not because of arrogance. It’s because they have more to teach you. So listen some more.

It’s the complexity of the world we’ve created which is the main problem. Faced with vast amounts of data and a shortage of time we opt for simplicity, and focus on a few salient signals which generally work.

A PUA concept is “what you feel, she feels”, so she pings off him to see if he’s embarrassed or apologetic about what he said and when he’s not, she feels like it must be okay. This is why when you go up with an opener you don’t think will work, it won’t work, and when you think it will work, it works.

The first impression is made within seconds, on the walk over to the girl, before one word is spoken. The way a guy carries himself, moves his body, his hands and arms, positions his feet, stands, maintains eye contact, and interacts non-verbally with girls is half his game. You can spit the words of Voltaire, but if your body is incongruent with what you’re saying, you will get blown out.

"This year, I’ve had another big load on my time: I’m writing my first book! Thus far it’s called Outsmart: The Future of Thought in the Age of Machines — a title possessed of such purple, sci-fi bombast that even though I wrote it myself, I still crack up every time I say it out loud. As you might imagine, coming from me, the book is a generally optimistic assessment of how digital tools are generating new ways for us to learn things, muse over them, and act on them. But the point is that it’s another time hog: Researching and writing a book has required such nose-to-the-grindstone work — to say nothing of nose-to-the-grindstone procrastination — that it has crowded out whatever time I might have had for blogging. Authors frequently describe the process of book-writing as similar to giving birth to a child, a metaphor I always found faintly icky; but, hey, maybe they were right. I’ve got three kids now, and no blog.

Yet as I’ve worked away on the book, I’ve increasingly begun to feel intellectually claustrophic. It’s hard to describe, but it’s like a cabin fever of the mind. The symptoms: I’ll get obsessed with a particular line of research, chewing away at it for days or weeks, only to realize it’s a) kind of half-baked or b) super interesting but not at all useful to my work. Or I’ll read a fascinating white paper, write a bunch of notes on it, but never crystallize a solid analysis.

I now think the problem is I’m not doing enough thinking in public."

'Uncertainty drives the search for and generation of creative ideas, but "uncertainty also makes us less able to recognize creativity, perhaps when we need it most," the researchers wrote. "Revealing the existence and nature of a bias against creativity can help explain why people might reject creative ideas and stifle scientific advancements, even in the face of strong intentions to the contrary. ... The field of creativity may need to shift its current focus from identifying how to generate more creative ideas to identify how to help innovative institutions recognize and accept creativity."'

You don’t have to be an asshole, but if you have no choice, being an inconsiderate asshole beats being a polite beta, every time.

When you feel the alpha in you, you know that girls are noticing the alpha in you. A small adjustment in a trivial thing like nodding can redound to your attractiveness in bigger ways. To be sure, a nod will not get you laid. But you start adding up all these little changes intended to emphasize alpha male characteristics, and suddenly you’re cooking with gas.

Learn to love the pregnant pause. When a girl shit tests you, don’t respond like a wind-up beta. Give her a blank, serial killer stare and wait… wait……. waiiiiit for it…. ANSWER! Wow, that was hot. I’m positive I just made a female reader squirm delightfully in her seat.

“Norm violators are perceived as having the capacity to act as they please” write the researchers. Power may be corrupting, but showing the outward signs of corruption makes people think you’re powerful.

Don Draper demonstrates frame busting on a hostile frame.