shot_after_a_fair_trial   21

Experimental evidence of massive-scale emotional contagion through social networks
"Emotional states can be transferred to others via emotional contagion, leading people to experience the same emotions without their awareness. Emotional contagion is well established in laboratory experiments, with people transferring positive and negative emotions to others. Data from a large real-world social network, collected over a 20-y period suggests that longer-lasting moods (e.g., depression, happiness) can be transferred through networks [Fowler JH, Christakis NA (2008) BMJ 337:a2338], although the results are controversial. In an experiment with people who use Facebook, we test whether emotional contagion occurs outside of in-person interaction between individuals by reducing the amount of emotional content in the News Feed. When positive expressions were reduced, people produced fewer positive posts and more negative posts; when negative expressions were reduced, the opposite pattern occurred. These results indicate that emotions expressed by others on Facebook influence our own emotions, constituting experimental evidence for massive-scale contagion via social networks. This work also suggests that, in contrast to prevailing assumptions, in-person interaction and nonverbal cues are not strictly necessary for emotional contagion, and that the observation of others’ positive experiences constitutes a positive experience for people."
to:NB  contagion  social_influence  social_media  networked_life  network_data_analysis  experimental_psychology  experimental_sociology  sentiment_analysis  text_mining  shot_after_a_fair_trial  to:blog 
july 2014 by cshalizi
The main two arguments for probabilism are flawed - Springer
"Probabilism, the view that agents have numerical degrees of beliefs that conform to the axioms of probability, has been defended by the vast majority of its proponents by way of either of two arguments, the Dutch Book Argument and the Representation Theorems Argument. In this paper I argue that both arguments are flawed. The Dutch Book Argument is based on an unwarranted, ad hoc premise that cannot be dispensed with. The Representation Theorems Argument hinges on an invalid implication."

--- Ehh. The argument against the Dutch Book Argument is that if the agent pays b for a bet that pays off $S or $0, _positing_ that their probability is p=b/S illegitimately smuggles in the additivity axiom. Similarly for the representation theorems, even if there's a unique set of Kolmogorovian probabilities corresponding to preferences over lotteries, you could always come up with other, non-Kolmogorovian weights on states-of-the-world and other utilties to represent the same preferences. These seem very weak to me (unlike "why do we care about these imaginary bets and lotteries?")
to:NB  have_read  bayesianism  decision_theory  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
june 2014 by cshalizi
[1403.7001] Spaghetti prediction: A robust method for forecasting short time series
"A novel method for predicting time series is described and demonstrated. This method inputs time series data points and outputs multiple "spaghetti" functions from which predictions can be made. Spaghetti prediction has desirable properties that are not realized by classic autoregression, moving average, spline, Gaussian process, and other methods. It is particularly appropriate for short time series because it allows asymmetric prediction distributions and produces prediction functions which are robust in that they use multiple independent models."
prediction  time_series  statistics  have_read  shot_after_a_fair_trial  splines 
april 2014 by cshalizi
The Journal of Politics - Conditional Status Quo Bias and Top Income Shares: How U.S. Political Institutions Have Benefited the Rich
"This article develops and tests a model of conditional status quo bias and American inequality. We find that institutional features that bias policy outcomes toward the status quo have played a central role in the path of inequality. Using time-series analysis of top income shares during the post-Depression period, we identify the Senate as a key actor in the politics of income inequality. Our findings suggest that the supermajoritarian nature of the Senate and policy stagnation, when coupled with economic and social factors that produce rising inequality, create a situation in which inequality becomes difficult to reverse."

--- OK, I _really_ want to see how they manage to measure this. (Hence last tag.)

--- ETA: Having read this, they come up with some not-crazy NOMINATE-based measures of (i) how messed up the Senate is (distance between the median senator and the one needed to over-ride a filibuster), (ii) how far apart the House, Senate & President are, and (iii) a whole bunch of controls. Then they run a linear regression of top income share against itself last year, and their predictors and controls this year and last. What they _say_ they do is fit an "error correction model", but that's (a) algebraically equivalent to what I just said, and (b) they have no reason at all why their should be a stable long-run _linear_ relationship between the share of the top 1% in national income and the NOMINATE distance between the median senator and the 60th percentile senator. (To state it plainly is to smile.) Variable importance is assessed by nominal p-values. This is probably no worse than 90% of social science, but...
to:NB  political_science  class_struggles_in_america  congress  inequality  public_policy  statistics  via:xmarquez  time_series  causal_inference  have_read  shot_after_a_fair_trial  to:blog 
march 2014 by cshalizi
[1307.7142] Temporal influence over the Last.fm social network
"Several recent results show the influence of social contacts to spread certain properties over the network, but others question the methodology of these experiments by proposing that the measured effects may be due to homophily or a shared environment. In this paper we justify the existence of the social influence by considering the temporal behavior of Last.fm users. In order to clearly distinguish between friends sharing the same interest, especially since Last.fm recommends friends based on similarity of taste, we separated the timeless effect of similar taste from the temporal impulses of immediately listening to the same artist after a friend. We measured strong increase of listening to a completely new artist in a few hours period after a friend compared to non-friends representing a simple trend or external influence. In our experiment to eliminate network independent elements of taste, we improved collaborative filtering and trend based methods by blending with simple time aware recommendations based on the influence of friends. Our experiments are carried over the two-year "scrobble" history of 70,000 Last.fm users."

- Does not address the confounding problem at all (despite the abstract).
to:NB  homophily  social_media  social_influence  re:homophily_and_confounding  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
july 2013 by cshalizi
Languages cool as they expand: Allometric scaling and the decreasing need for new words : Scientific Reports : Nature Publishing Group
Every single result here, including the "cooling", is entirely explicable as a sampling artifact, once we grant Zipf's law, or indeed any regularly varying distribution of word frequencies.
heavy_tails  bad_data_analysis  linguistics  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
december 2012 by cshalizi
Phys. Rev. E 86, 040106 (2012): Quantum measurement and the first law of thermodynamics: The energy cost of measurement is the work value of the acquired information
"The energy cost of measurement is an important fundamental question, and may have profound implications for quantum technologies. In the context of Maxwell's demon, it is often stated that measurement has no minimum energy cost, while information has a work value. However, as we elucidate, the first of these statements does not refer to the cost paid by the measuring device. Here we show that it is only when a measuring device has access to a zero-temperature reservoir—that is, never—that measurement requires no energy. To obtain a given amount of information, all measuring devices must pay a cost equal to that which a heat engine would pay to obtain the equivalent work value of that information."

--- Umm, the actual conclusion is that if you want a cycle, you need to erase the measurement, which is (by Landauer, if we believe that) costly. But then the _measurement_ has no thermodynamic cost, just the erasure. In other words, everyone has been right. What am I missing that this is not a big ball of nothing?
in_NB  have_read  statistical_mechanics  maxwells_demon  landauers_principle  physics_of_information  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
october 2012 by cshalizi
[1108.0833] Temporal statistical analysis on human article creation patterns
Sadly, in this case fitting crappy power laws to the works of Gene Stanley and Laszlo Barabasi is not an_intentional_ joke.
bad_data_analysis  heavy_tails  barabasi.albert-laszlo  stanley.h._eugene  newman.mark  have_read  blogged  su.shi  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
august 2011 by cshalizi
Reason Foundation - No Booze? You May Lose
Exercise for the student: Devise at least two reasons why the causality might run from high income to frequent social drinking, rather than vice versa.  (This is I think too elementary to make a good problem for ADA.)
bad_data_analysis  booze  via:tony_lin  causal_inference  to_teach:undergrad-ADA  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
april 2011 by cshalizi
Language Log » Lyrical Narcissism?
I'm tempted to make this into a problem set, but it's probably not challenging enough.
bad_data_analysis  music  poetry  cultural_criticism  liberman.mark  debunking  to_teach:undergrad-ADA  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
april 2011 by cshalizi
[0906.3202] Distance Is Not Dead: Social Interaction and Geographical Distance in the Internet Era
Well, their power law estimation is bad, of course, but more to the point I don't think they're really dealing with an interesting version of the thesis they set out to undermine. (At the very least: even if geography was irrelevant for Internet users, the latter are not uniformly distributed geographically.) The pictures of the diffusion of baby names are cool, though.
geography  the_internet  diffusion_of_innovations  epidemiology_of_representations  social_networks  heavy_tails  shot_after_a_fair_trial  re:critique_of_diffusion  re:social_networks_as_sensor_networks 
june 2009 by cshalizi
A consistent nonparametric test of ergodicity for time series with applications
They completely fail to deal with the basic problem that ergodic components are invariant, so that every realization of a stochastic process is always confined to a single component. Hence no test on a single realization has ANY ability to detect non-ergodicity; this could ONLY be done with multiple realizations from the same source.
statistics  time_series  ergodic_theory  nonparametrics  have_read  hypothesis_testing  shot_after_a_fair_trial 
march 2009 by cshalizi

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