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The Metamorphosis • The Atlantic
Henry A. Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Daniel Huttenlocher:
<p>In the nuclear age, strategy evolved around the concept of deterrence. Deterrence is predicated on the rationality of parties, and the premise that stability can be ensured by nuclear and other military deployments that can be neutralized only by deliberate acts leading to self-destruction; the likelihood of retaliation deters attack. Arms-control agreements with monitoring systems were developed in large part to avoid challenges from rogue states or false signals that might trigger a catastrophic response.

Hardly any of these strategic verities can be applied to a world in which AI plays a significant role in national security. If AI develops new weapons, strategies, and tactics by simulation and other clandestine methods, control becomes elusive, if not impossible. The premises of arms control based on disclosure will alter: Adversaries’ ignorance of AI-developed configurations will become a strategic advantage—an advantage that would be sacrificed at a negotiating table where transparency as to capabilities is a prerequisite. The opacity (and also the speed) of the cyberworld may overwhelm current planning models.

The evolution of the arms-control regime taught us that grand strategy requires an understanding of the capabilities and military deployments of potential adversaries. But if more and more intelligence becomes opaque, how will policy makers understand the views and abilities of their adversaries and perhaps even allies?</p>


Yes, it really is that unindicted war criminal Henry Kissinger (age 96), ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt (64), American academic Daniel Huttenlocher (59). The article's full of vagueisms - unsurprisingly - but the idea of nation states using AI for their defence/attack strategies is quite worrying.
ai  schmidt  google 
5 weeks ago by charlesarthur
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Heute vor 100 Jahren wurde Helmut geboren. Er war ein großer Staatsmann, ein unabhängiger Geist – und eine…
Schmidt  from twitter_favs
december 2018 by tmmd
Eric Schmidt, ex-Google CEO, predicts internet bifurcation with China • CNBC
Lora Kolodny:
<p>At the [private Village Global VC] event, economist Tyler Cowen asked about the possibility of the internet fragmenting into different sub-internets with different regulations and limited access between them in coming years. "What's the chance, say, 10 to 15 years, we have just three to four separate internets?"

Schmidt said:
<p>"I think the most likely scenario now is not a splintering, but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by America.

If you look at China, and I was just there, the scale of the companies that are being built, the services being built, the wealth that is being created is phenomenal. Chinese Internet is a greater percentage of the GDP of China, which is a big number, than the same percentage of the US, which is also a big number.

If you think of China as like 'Oh yeah, they're good with the Internet,' you're missing the point. Globalization means that they get to play too. I think you're going to see fantastic leadership in products and services from China. There's a real danger that along with those products and services comes a different leadership regime from government, with censorship, controls, etc.

Look at the way BRI works – their Belt and Road Initiative, which involves 60-ish countries – it's perfectly possible those countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has with some loss of freedom."</p>
</p>


Seems possible. It's hard to say whether Schmidt tends towards Pollyanna-ish optimism (my first thoughts about his track record) or dystopic downside (my second thoughts, such as his "over the creepy line" and "get a new name at 18" comments). So while I find this scenario very possible, I don't know if it's plausible beyond Asian countries.
china  internet  schmidt 
september 2018 by charlesarthur

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