rent-seeking   249

« earlier    

[1804.04268] Incomplete Contracting and AI Alignment
We suggest that the analysis of incomplete contracting developed by law and economics researchers can provide a useful framework for understanding the AI alignment problem and help to generate a systematic approach to finding solutions. We first provide an overview of the incomplete contracting literature and explore parallels between this work and the problem of AI alignment. As we emphasize, misalignment between principal and agent is a core focus of economic analysis. We highlight some technical results from the economics literature on incomplete contracts that may provide insights for AI alignment researchers. Our core contribution, however, is to bring to bear an insight that economists have been urged to absorb from legal scholars and other behavioral scientists: the fact that human contracting is supported by substantial amounts of external structure, such as generally available institutions (culture, law) that can supply implied terms to fill the gaps in incomplete contracts. We propose a research agenda for AI alignment work that focuses on the problem of how to build AI that can replicate the human cognitive processes that connect individual incomplete contracts with this supporting external structure.
nibble  preprint  org:mat  papers  ai  ai-control  alignment  coordination  contracts  law  economics  interests  culture  institutions  number  context  behavioral-econ  composition-decomposition  rent-seeking  whole-partial-many 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Unaligned optimization processes as a general problem for society
TL;DR: There are lots of systems in society which seem to fit the pattern of “the incentives for this system are a pretty good approximation of what we actually want, so the system produces good results until it gets powerful, at which point it gets terrible results.”


Here are some more places where this idea could come into play:

- Marketing—humans try to buy things that will make our lives better, but our process for determining this is imperfect. A more powerful optimization process produces extremely good advertising to sell us things that aren’t actually going to make our lives better.
- Politics—we get extremely effective demagogues who pit us against our essential good values.
- Lobbying—as industries get bigger, the optimization process to choose great lobbyists for industries gets larger, but the process to make regulators robust doesn’t get correspondingly stronger. So regulatory capture gets worse and worse. Rent-seeking gets more and more significant.
- Online content—in a weaker internet, sites can’t be addictive except via being good content. In the modern internet, people can feel addicted to things that they wish they weren’t addicted to. We didn’t use to have the social expertise to make clickbait nearly as well as we do it today.
- News—Hyperpartisan news sources are much more worth it if distribution is cheaper and the market is bigger. News sources get an advantage from being truthful, but as society gets bigger, this advantage gets proportionally smaller.


For these reasons, I think it’s quite plausible that humans are fundamentally unable to have a “good” society with a population greater than some threshold, particularly if all these people have access to modern technology. Humans don’t have the rigidity to maintain social institutions in the face of that kind of optimization process. I think it is unlikely but possible (10%?) that this threshold population is smaller than the current population of the US, and that the US will crumble due to the decay of these institutions in the next fifty years if nothing totally crazy happens.
ratty  thinking  metabuch  reflection  metameta  big-yud  clever-rats  ai-control  ai  risk  scale  quality  ability-competence  network-structure  capitalism  randy-ayndy  civil-liberty  marketing  institutions  economics  political-econ  politics  polisci  advertising  rent-seeking  government  coordination  internet  attention  polarization  media  truth  unintended-consequences  alt-inst  efficiency  altruism  society  usa  decentralized  rhetoric  prediction  population  incentives  intervention  criminal-justice  property-rights  redistribution  taxes  externalities  science  monetary-fiscal  public-goodish  zero-positive-sum  markets  cost-benefit  regulation  regularizer  order-disorder  flux-stasis  shift  smoothness  phase-transition  power  definite-planning  optimism  pessimism  homo-hetero  interests  eden-heaven  telos-atelos  threat-modeling  alignment 
february 2018 by nhaliday
What era are our intuitions about elites and business adapted to? – Gene Expression
Above natural states are open-access orders, which characterize societies that have market economies and competitive politics. Here access to the elite is open to anyone who can prove themselves worthy — it is not artificially restricted in order to preserve large rents for the incumbents. The pie can be made bigger with more people at the top, since you only get to the top in such societies by making and selling things that people want. Elite members compete against each other based on the quality and price of the goods and services they sell — it’s a mercantile elite — rather than based on who is better at violence than the others. If the elites are flabby, upstarts can readily form their own organizations — as opposed to not having the freedom to do so — that, if better, will dethrone the incumbents. Since violence is no longer part of elite competition, homicide rates are the lowest of all types of societies.

OK, now let’s take a look at just two innate views that most people have about how the business world works or what economic elites are like, and see how these are adaptations to natural states rather than to the very new open-access orders (which have only existed in Western Europe since about 1850 or so). One is the conviction, common even among many businessmen, that market share matters more than making profits — that being more popular trumps being more profitable. The other is most people’s mistrust of companies that dominate their entire industry, like Microsoft in computers.
gnxp  scitariat  reflection  farmers-and-foragers  sapiens  instinct  politics  coalitions  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  political-econ  polisci  leviathan  north-weingast-like  unintended-consequences  open-closed  biases  government  markets  market-power  rent-seeking  capitalism  democracy  roots  EEA  inequality  egalitarianism-hierarchy  business  cost-benefit  interests  elite  hari-seldon 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Against Max Sawicky!
Max Sawicky has a piece in Jacobin , giving grief to Brink Lindsey and Steve Teles’ new book on rent seeking, The Captured Economy , and arguing that Dean…
political_economy  regulatory_capture  rent-seeking  demo-libertarians  inequality  from instapaper
december 2017 by dunnettreader
As a foundation for this study, I organized the collection of village-level panel data on violent actors, managing teams of surveyors, village elders, and households in 380 war-torn areas of DRC. I introduce optimal taxation theory to the decision of violent actors to establish local monopolies of violence. The value of such decision hinges on their ability to tax the local population. A sharp rise in the global demand for coltan, a bulky commodity used in the electronics industry, leads violent actors to impose monopolies of violence and taxation in coltan sites, which persist even years after demand collapses. A similar rise in the demand for gold, easier to conceal and more difficult to tax, does not. However, the groups who nevertheless control gold sites are more likely to respond by undertaking investments in fiscal capacity, consistent with the difficulty to observe gold, and with well-documented trajectories of state formation in Europe (Ardant, 1975). The findings support the view that the expected revenue from taxation, determined in particular by tax base elasticity and costly investments in fiscal capacity, can explain the stages of state formation preceding the states as we recognize them today.
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  broad-econ  political-econ  polisci  leviathan  north-weingast-like  unintended-consequences  institutions  microfoundations  econometrics  empirical  government  taxes  rent-seeking  supply-demand  incentives  property-rights  africa  developing-world  peace-violence  interests  longitudinal  natural-experiment  endogenous-exogenous  archaeology  trade  world  feudal  roots  ideas  cost-benefit  econ-productivity  traces 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Fortifications and Democracy in the Ancient Greek World by Josiah Ober, Barry Weingast :: SSRN
- Joshiah Ober, Barry Weingast

In the modern world, access-limiting fortification walls are not typically regarded as promoting democracy. But in Greek antiquity, increased investment in fortifications was correlated with the prevalence and stability of democracy. This paper sketches the background conditions of the Greek city-state ecology, analyzes a passage in Aristotle’s Politics, and assesses the choices of Hellenistic kings, Greek citizens, and urban elites, as modeled in a simple game. The paper explains how city walls promoted democracy and helps to explain several other puzzles: why Hellenistic kings taxed Greek cities at lower than expected rates; why elites in Greek cities supported democracy; and why elites were not more heavily taxed by democratic majorities. The relationship between walls, democracy, and taxes promoted continued economic growth into the late classical and Hellenistic period (4th-2nd centuries BCE), and ultimately contributed to the survival of Greek culture into the Roman era, and thus modernity. We conclude with a consideration of whether the walls-democracy relationship holds in modernity.

'Rulers Ruled by Women': An Economic Analysis of the Rise and Fall of Women's Rights in Ancient Sparta by Robert K. Fleck, F. Andrew Hanssen:
Throughout most of history, women as a class have possessed relatively few formal rights. The women of ancient Sparta were a striking exception. Although they could not vote, Spartan women reportedly owned 40 percent of Sparta's agricultural land and enjoyed other rights that were equally extraordinary. We offer a simple economic explanation for the Spartan anomaly. The defining moment for Sparta was its conquest of a neighboring land and people, which fundamentally changed the marginal products of Spartan men's and Spartan women's labor. To exploit the potential gains from a reallocation of labor - specifically, to provide the appropriate incentives and the proper human capital formation - men granted women property (and other) rights. Consistent with our explanation for the rise of women's rights, when Sparta lost the conquered land several centuries later, the rights for women disappeared. Two conclusions emerge that may help explain why women's rights have been so rare for most of history. First, in contrast to the rest of the world, the optimal (from the men's perspective) division of labor among Spartans involved women in work that was not easily monitored by men. Second, the rights held by Spartan women may have been part of an unstable equilibrium, which contained the seeds of its own destruction.
study  broad-econ  economics  polisci  political-econ  institutions  government  north-weingast-like  democracy  walls  correlation  polis  history  mediterranean  iron-age  the-classics  microfoundations  modernity  comparison  architecture  military  public-goodish  elite  civic  taxes  redistribution  canon  literature  big-peeps  conquest-empire  rent-seeking  defense  models  GT-101  incentives  urban  urban-rural  speculation  interdisciplinary  cliometrics  multi  civil-liberty  gender  gender-diff  equilibrium  cycles  branches  labor  interests  property-rights  unintended-consequences  explanation  explanans  analysis  econ-productivity  context  arrows  micro  natural-experiment 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Farm (revenue leasing) - Wikipedia
Tax farming was originally a Roman practice whereby the burden of tax collection was reassigned by the Roman State to private individuals or groups. In essence, these individuals or groups paid the taxes for a certain area and for a certain period of time and then attempted to cover their outlay by collecting money or saleable goods from the people within that area.[5] The system was set up by Gaius Gracchus in 123 BC primarily to increase the efficiency of tax collection within Rome itself but the system quickly spread to the Provinces.[6] Within the Roman Empire, these private individuals and groups which collected taxes in lieu of the bid (i.e. rent) they had paid to the state were known as publicani, of whom the best known is the disciple Matthew, a publicanus in the village of Capernaum in the province of Galilee. The system was widely abused, and reforms were enacted by Augustus and Diocletian.[7] Tax farming practices are believed to have contributed to the fall of the Western Roman Empire in Western Europe.[8]
concept  finance  ORFE  taxes  political-econ  institutions  government  leviathan  wiki  reference  history  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  gibbon  roots  britain  broad-econ  economics  rent-seeking 
october 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

1%  1-percent  10%  20%  2010s  2016-election  2016  2017-03-12  2017-03-13  2017-03-14  2017-03-15  2017-03-16  2017-03-17  2017  21stc  80000-hours  :/  ability-competence  absolute-relative  academia  acemoglu  added  addiction  adversarial  advertising  affordability  affordable  africa  age-generation  ageing  aggregate  aging  agriculture  ai-control  ai  albion  alignment  all  allocation  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  amazon  america  american-nations  analysis  analytics  anarcho-tyranny  anglosphere  angus  anomie  anthropology  anti-competive_behavior  antidemos  antiquity  antitrust  aphorism  app_store  apple  arbitrage  archaeology  architecture  arrows  article  artificial  asia  asset  attaq  attention  audio  augmented  austerity  authoritarianism  automation  autonomous  autor  avoidance  axioms  babyboomers  backup  bangladesh  banking  barons  bay-area  behavioral-econ  being  beton  betongold  bias  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  big-yud  boc  boe  book  books  boom  branches  bric  britain  broad-econ  bubble  bubbles  business-models  business  buy  california  canada  canon  capital  capital_markets  capitalism  card  cardio  career  cars  causation  censorship  change  chart  checklists  chicago  china  chris  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  clarity  class-warfare  class  class_conflict  clever-rats  climate  cliometrics  coalitions  cocktail  coefficient  cohesion  coming-apart  commentary  commodification  communication  communism  community  commute  commuter  commuting  comparison  compensation  competition  competition_law  composition-decomposition  concept  conceptual-vocab  conflict_of_interest  confluence  conquest-empire  context  contracts  contrarianism  control  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  cop21  corporate_citizenship  corporate_finance  corporate_governance  corporate_ownership  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  courage  cracker-econ  creative  credit  crime  criminal-justice  crisis  criticism  critique  crony  crooked  cross-holdings  crosstab  cultural-dynamics  culture  current-events  curvature  cycle  cycles  damage  darwinian  data-science  data  database  databrokers  death  deaton  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  defense  definite-planning  deflation  deflationary  delta  demand  demo-libertarians  democracy  demographic  density  descriptive  destruction  detail-architecture  developing-world  dignity  dilemma  dillow  discipline  discretionary  discrimination  discussion  disease  disposable  distorted  distortion  distribution  divergence  diversity  dogma  domestication  door  downloaded  drugs  early-modern  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economic  economic_growth  economic_models  economic_theory  economics  econotariat  eden-heaven  education  eea  effect-size  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  eh  elections  elite  emerging  empirical  employers  employment  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entrepreneurialism  environment  envy  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  equity  error  essay  establishment  estate  ethanol  ethics  ethnography  europe  european  evasion  evolution  examples  expert-experience  expert  explanans  explanation  externalities  extraction  extreme  facebook  fairness  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fertility  feudal  fiction  film  finance  finance_capital  financial  flexibility  flux-stasis  for  foreign-policy  fossil  free-riding  free  frequency  frontier  fuel  funding  gains  galbraith  gallic  game-theory  gap  garett-jones  gavisti  gdp  gedanken  gender-diff  gender  general-survey  generation  generationengerechtigkeit  george  germanic  germany  gfc  giants  gibbon  gilens-page  gini  global  globalisation  globalization  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnp  gnxp  gold  google  government  gray-econ  great-powers  grid  growth-econ  gt-101  guide  hanson  hari-seldon  health  healthcare  heavy-industry  help  heterodox_economics  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  housing  hsu  human-bean  human-capital  hypothesis-testing  ideas  ideology  imf  immigration  impact  impetus  incentives  income  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  industry  industry_consolidation  industry_structure  inequality  inflation  info-dynamics  info-econ  infrastructure  inheritance  init  innovation  innovators  input-output  insight  instinct  institutional_investors  institutions  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  interlocking_holdings  internet  intersection-connectedness  intersection  intervention  interview  intricacy  investing  investment  investors  iq  iron-age  islam  james  jamesgalbraith  japan  jobs  joseph-stiglitz  journos-pundits  justice  kenneth  kindle-available  knowledge  koo  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  labor_markets  language  larry-summers  latin-america  latin  law  leadership  left-wing  legacy  len:short  lending  lens  let  letters  leviathan  license  limits  links  liquidity  list  literature  lived-experience  loans  lobby  london  long-short-run  long-term  longform  longitudinal  luck  macro  macroeconomic  madisonian  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  managers  manifolds  map-territory  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  market-power  market  marketing  markets  markets_in_everything  martial  maximisation  maximization  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  mena  meta-analysis  meta:medicine  meta:science  meta:war  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  micro  microbiz  microeconomic  microfoundations  middle  midwest  migration  military  mississippi  mobile  mobility  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  monetary-fiscal  money  monitoring  monopolies  moore's  morality  mortgage  mostly-modern  multi  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  neoclassical_economics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  network-structure  new-york-city  new  news  nibble  nihil  nimbys  nirp  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  no  noahpinion  noblesse-oblige  nominal  nonlinearity  normal  north-weingast-like  northeast  null-result  number  nyc  oap  obligation  oecd  old-anglo  oligarchy  oligopol  oligopoly  open-closed  opioid  opioids  optimate  optimism  order-disorder  oreilly  orfe  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bv  org:data  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edu  org:fin  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:mat  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orwellian  osborne  other-xtian  output  ownership  p:null  paper  papers  parasites-microbiome  parasites  parenting  pareto  path-dependence  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  pension  peopleanalytics  performance  personal-finance  pessimism  pharma  phase-transition  philosophy  physics  piketty  pinker  piracy  planning  plots  plutocracy  poast  podcast  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  political_economy  politician  politicians  politics  poll  poor  population  populism  postmortem  poverty  power  pre-ww2  precariat  prediction-markets  prediction  preprint  priors-posteriors  privileged  pro-rata  product-management  productive  productivity  profile  profiling  profit  profits  programming  propaganda  property-rights  property  property_rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  pseudoe  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  public  putnam-like  q-n-a  qe  quality  questions  quotes  r&d  race  raghuram  rajan  randy-ayndy  rant  ratty  real  realness  realpolitik  reason  receipts  recovery  recruiting  recruitment  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflate  reflation  reflection  regression-to-mean  regularizer  regulation  regulators  regulatory_capture  religion  renewable  rent-is-too-damn-high  rent  rentier  rentiers  rents  representation  repression  reputation  retail  review  reviews  revolution  revolving  rhetoric  rich  richard  right-wing  rights  risk  robot  robotics  robots  roi  roots  rot  russia  s:*  sapiens  save  savings  scale  scheme  scholar  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  scott-sumner  secular  securities  seeking  selection  self-regulation  service  servicing  servitude  sex  sexuality  shareholder  shift  short-fall  sick  signaling  siliconvalley  sinosphere  skeleton  smart  smoothness  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-science  social-structure  social  society  sociology  software  spearhead  speculation  speculative  spending  spreading  squeezed  ssc  ssrn  stagnation  startups  statesmen  statistics  stats  status  stories  stream  street  study  studying  stylized-facts  subprime  subscription  summary  super  supply-demand  surveillance  surveillancecapitalism  survey  sv  systematic-ad-hoc  szabo  tails  take  targeting  tax  tax_havens  taxes  taylorism  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  temperance  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-south  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theos  things  thinking  threat-modeling  time-preference  time-series  time  to  top-n  traces  track-record  trade  transparency  trap  trends  trickle-down  triple-lock  trivia  trump  trust  truth  tumblr  turchin  twitter  uk  unaffiliated  underinvestment  unemployment  unintended-consequences  union  urban-rural  urban  us_economy  usa  valuation  value  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  video  virginia-dc  visualization  volo-avolo  wage  wall  walls  walter-scheidel  war  warming  washington  wealth-of-nations  wealth  welfare-state  well  wellness  west-hunter  western  westminster  wework  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  whole-partial-many  wiki  winner-take-all  winner  wonkish  work  working  workplace  world-war  world  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  zirp  🎩  🐸 

Copy this bookmark: