recession   10640

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All That Was Solid
It may be that Germany’s extraordinary inversion of its political economy between the late 1970s and early 2000s is emblematic of the sense that you can get away with it. But, of course, you can’t, because the German Social Democrats (SPD) will never recover. The SPD has paid a lethal price, a terminal political price for that.
adamtooze  economics  recession  crash 
5 days ago by yorksranter
The Great Recession’s Impact on African American Public Sector Employment
even after controlling for personal characteristics and local economic conditions, the
difference in the probability of displacement between African American and white public
sector respondents increased from zero to a recession gap of 2.8 percentage points, now
equaling the private sector gap. The finding suggests that the formal rules that govern
public sector layoff decisions ceased to generate race neutral displacement.
recession  publicsector  race 
17 days ago by brycecovert
RT : He picked the 90s recession, Asian crisis and GFC - Dr Peter Brain says Aus heading for as early as next…
recession  from twitter
19 days ago by kcarruthers
Firms Halted Innovation Efforts in 2018 at Their Own Risk, Report Finds | The American Lawyer
But a good year does not fundamentally alter the economics of the legal market. Seeger and Clay found that firms have relaxed in their efforts to improve legal and work processes and lower costs. Regardless of a recession, Seeger said that firms must continue to differentiate themselves from the pack or risk losing out in the long term.

“It’s still a highly competitive market. Clients are very aware that they have choices,” said Seeger. “We are advising firms to not get complacent but to focus on long-term stability and competitiveness.”

The study found that only 54% of law firm leaders say that their firm’s urgency to change is higher now than it was two years ago. And only 22% of firms made a serious effort to change work processes.

The authors wrote that it is imperative that law firms continue to value change. Firms should take a look at their legal operations—pricing, staffing, technology utilization and knowledge management—to appease clients who want to see lower legal costs, they said. Leadership development and collaboration can help reduce a culture of feet-dragging.

“As has been the case for years, law firms’ success will be driven by their ability to meet the changing requirements of the marketplace,” the authors wrote. “Firms that can craft smart, client-focused strategies and execute on them rapidly are likely to achieve competitive advantages.”

strategy  recession  firms 
25 days ago by JordanFurlong
What Companies Should Do to Prepare for a Recession
But by the time the recession had reached its lowest point in 2009, the resilients had increased their EBITDA by 10%, on average, while industry peers had lost nearly 15%. The resilients seem to have accomplished this by reducing operating costs earlier in the recession cycle, and more deeply. By the first quarter of 2008, the resilients had already cut operating costs 1% compared with the year before, even as their sector year-on-year costs were growing by a similar amount. The resilients maintained and expanded their cost lead as the recession moved toward its trough, improving their earnings advantage in seven out of the eight quarters during 2008 and 2009.
economics  recession 
4 weeks ago by dancall
Bob Rodriguez: Recent Market Turmoil a ‘Preamble’ to Bigger Crisis | ThinkAdvisor
In my Jan. 30, 2018, interview with you, you called the stock market “Alice in Wonderland” populated by a host of irrational “Mad Hatters.” Are they still in the Rabbit Hole?

The equity market was delusional and still is. All the excitement from the Trump tax cut has been washed away. And where did the corporate tax cuts go? Stock buybacks and dividends. Capital spending hasn’t occurred, which means that productivity is unlikely to improve appreciably. We’re substituting labor for capital. That’s part of the [reason for] lower unemployment rates.

...We’re getting close to a flat inverted yield curve [a predictor of recession], and that’s helping to cause uncertainty and consternation in the equity market too. I had expected that the yield curve was going to flatten. Historically, when the yield curve is flattened, stock market volatility has risen. It’s nothing new.

...If the market correction is just the “preamble,” what comes next?

Economic growth is decelerating. It was only temporarily boosted by the tax cuts, and it will be weakening in 2019 and 2020. The higher GDP growth we’ve seen this year was a function of President Trump’s trade discussions or, shall we say, trade war. Corporations have been accelerating their inventory acquisitions in anticipation of higher import costs. So two-thirds of the GDP growth last quarter came from inventory accumulation. I doubt that in 2019 and 2020 you’re going to see inventory build-up again. I fully expect GDP growth to decelerate.
employment  taxes  wallstreet  politics  recession  interviews  investing 
5 weeks ago by cmananian
Why Wages Are Finally Rising, 10 Years After the Recession - The New York Times
The government’s official definition of unemployment is relatively narrow. It counts only people actively looking for work, which means it leaves out many students, stay-at-home parents or others who might like jobs if they were available. If employers have been tapping into that broader pool of potential labor, it could help explain why they haven’t been forced to raise wages faster.

It appears as if that is exactly what is happening. In recent months, more than 70 percent of people getting jobs had not been counted as unemployed the previous month. That is well above historical levels, and a sign that the strong labor market is drawing people off the sidelines.
unemployment  wages  recession  long_depression  credit_crisis  reserve_army_of_the_unemployed  minimum_wage 
6 weeks ago by perich
Companies Need to Prepare for the Next Economic Downturn
.@HarvardBiz- expect a economic downturn next 12-24 months

How to benefit based on study of 5K companies
- Act early
- Take long-term perspective
- Focus on growth, not just cost cutting
- Consider current risks (tech, economy, society, planet)
+ collaborate
economics  recession  action_plan  HBR  bcg 
7 weeks ago by tom.reeder
Mick Mulvaney’s Master Class in Destroying a Bureaucracy From Within
The C.F.P.B. was created to protect Americans from predatory lenders after the financial crisis. President Trump’s new chief of staff took it apart on his way to White House.
politics  government  financial.crisis  recession  politics_fail 
8 weeks ago by jimmykduong

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