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China and the International Order
May 2018 Rand book
This report offers four major findings about the relationship of China to the international order. First, China's behavior over the past two decades does not mark it as an opponent or saboteur of the order, but rather as a conditional supporter. Since China undertook a policy of international engagement in the 1980s, the level and quality of its participation in the order rivals that of most other states. Second, looking forward, the posture China takes toward the institutions, norms, and rules of a shared order is now in significant flux; various outcomes — from continued qualified support to more-aggressive challenges — are possible. Third, partly because of this uncertainty, a strengthened and increasingly multilateral international order can provide a critical tool for the United States and other countries to shape and constrain rising Chinese power. Finally, modifications to the order on the margins in response to Chinese preferences pose less of a threat to a stable international system than a future in which China is alienated from that system. However, these modifications must be governed by strictly articulated end-points.
rand  china  international_order 
4 weeks ago by strohps
Additive Manufacturing in 2040: Powerful Enabler, Disruptive Threat
May 2018 Rand report
Additive manufacturing (AM) — colloquially known as three-dimensional, or 3D, printing — is an emerging technology with potential local and international security implications in the near and long terms. This Perspective — part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 — offers a new framework for exploring the disruptive dimensions of AM technology, helping to inform which sectors and industries might be the most affected in the future. To better understand the security implications, a RAND research team briefly reviewed the existing literature, conducted interviews with stakeholders and subject-matter experts, and convened a workshop with technology and security experts. Two overarching security threats emerged: the proliferation of weapons and economic insecurity. This Perspective explores each of these security threats and offers a series of mitigation strategies and policy recommendations to help manage and regulate the negative impacts of this technology.
rand  manufacturing  security  technology  threats 
6 weeks ago by strohps
Discontinuities and Distractions — Rethinking Security for the Year 2040: Findings from a RAND Corporation Workshop
May 2018 Rand report
This report is based on a workshop held in New York City in September 2017 to discuss how to better define, anticipate, and address global trends and discontinuities that could shape the world though the year 2040. Nineteen participants from a wide range of disciplines and professions analyzed continuities and discontinuities from previous eras, and anticipated likely or consequential developments in the coming 25 years. Continuities are those trends and events that were unsurprising, even if they occurred at an accelerated pace. Discontinuities, also known as "black swans," are developments that were deemed impossible and so were never considered, yet proved consequential enough to change history. The most consequential continuities cited were that (1) life expectancy in many parts of the world would continue to rise, (2) extreme weather events would increase in frequency, and (3) technological advancement would continue to progress rapidly. The most consequential discontinuities cited were that (1) artificial intelligence could displace a significant portion of the labor force; (2) advanced genomic editing could become a disruptive force; (3) climate change and extreme weather could spark mass migration; and (4) shifts in climate, energy, and demography could alter the international power balance. This report also addresses anticipated changes in warfare, information insecurity, challenges to privacy, and the problems of governance in liberal democracies, which were seen as the fundamental obstacle to designing solutions to the anticipated challenges of 2040.
rand  security 
8 weeks ago by strohps
Can Humans Survive a Faster Future? | RAND
The single biggest change that I experienced in almost 25 years . . . was in the area of speed," said Blinken, a RAND adjunct researcher who shared his expertise on the project. "Nothing had a more profound effect on government and the challenges of government."

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"It's not about hitting the brakes," Bouskill said. "It's about striking the right tempo."
speed  government  rand 
10 weeks ago by JohnDrake
Finding the Right Balance: Department of Defense Roles in Stabilization
April 2018 Rand report
The pendulum regarding the level of U.S. military participation in stabilization efforts has swung dramatically since 2001, from a low level of preparation and participation in the early days of the Afghanistan and Iraq operations in 2003, to widespread stabilization activities costing billions of dollars in the ensuing years, to significantly scaled-back forces and resources devoted to stabilization in recent years. To remedy the initial lack of preparation, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) issued a directive with guidance on stabilization requirements in 2005 and then updated it with more expansive requirements in 2009. This report supports DoD efforts to update this guidance by assessing the accumulated experience of the past 17 years and evaluating the appropriate roles for the U.S. military and its ability to execute them in conjunction with interagency and other key partners.

Without stabilization, successful warfighting often does not produce desired political outcomes. Yet warfighters are not the most capable actors for many stabilization tasks. Therefore, the authors recommend shifting DoD guidance on stabilization away from requiring high levels of proficiency in a large number of tasks to emphasizing three key roles for DoD: prioritizing security tasks; providing support to other actors performing stability functions; and performing crosscutting informational, planning, coordination, and physical support roles.
rand  reconstruction  security 
april 2018 by strohps

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