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Political Attitudes | Wiley Online Books
"Political Science has traditionally employed empirical research and analytical resources to understand, explain and predict political phenomena. One of the long-standing criticisms against empirical modeling targets the static perspective provided by the model-invariant paradigm. In political science research, this issue has a particular relevance since political phenomena prove sophisticated degrees of context-dependency whose complexity could be hardly captured by traditional approaches. To cope with the complexity challenge, a new modeling paradigm was needed. This book is concerned with this challenge. Moreover, the book aims to reveal the power of computational modeling of political attitudes to reinforce the political methodology in facing two fundamental challenges: political culture modeling and polity modeling. The book argues that an artificial polity model as a powerful research instrument could hardly be effective without the political attitude and, by extension, the political culture computational and simulation modeling theory, experiments and practice."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  voter_model  social_influence  public_opinion  agent-based_models  political_science  simulation  interacting_particle_systems 
16 days ago by cshalizi
Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study, 1965-1997: Four Waves Combined
"The Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study is a series of surveys designed to assess political continuity and change across time for biologically-related generations and to gauge the impact of life-stage events and historical trends on the behaviors and attitudes of respondents. A national sample of high school seniors and their parents was first surveyed in 1965. Subsequent surveys of the same individuals were conducted in 1973, 1982, and 1997. This data collection combines all four waves of youth data for the study. The general objective of the data collection was to study the dynamics of political attitudes and behaviors by obtaining data on the same individuals as they aged from approximately 18 years of age in 1965 to 50 years of age in 1997. Especially when combined with other elements of the study as released in other ICPSR collections in the Youth Studies Series, this data collection facilitates the analysis of generational, life cycle, and historical effects and political influences on relationships within the family. This data collection also has several distinctive properties. First, it is a longitudinal study of a particular cohort, a national sample from the graduating high school class of 1965. Second, it captures the respondents at key points in their life stages -- at ages 18, 26, 35, and 50. Third, the dataset contains many replicated measures over time as well as some measures unique to each data point. Fourth, there is detailed information about the respondents' life histories. Background variables include age, sex, religious orientation, level of religious participation, marital status, ethnicity, educational status and background, place of residence, family income, and employment status."

--- Used in Rochon's book about value change, in a way which would make it a good case study for propensity-score matching (which Rochon did _not_ do, confounding his inferences). Query, can I get access via CMU, or are we not part of the consortium?
data_sets  us_politics  public_opinion  to_teach:undergrad-ADA 
17 days ago by cshalizi
Misinformation and Conspiracy Theories about Politics and Public Policy
Why do people hold false or unsupported beliefs about politics and public policy and why are so those beliefs so hard to change? This three-credit graduate course will explore the psychological factors that make people vulnerable to misinformation and conspiracy theories and the reasons that corrections so often fail to change their minds. We will also analyze how those tendencies are exploited by political elites and consider possible approaches that journalists, civic reformers, and government officials could employ to combat misperceptions. Students will develop substantive expertise in how to measure, diagnose, and respond to false beliefs about politics and public policy; methodological expertise in reading and analyzing quantitative and experimental research in social science; and analytical writing skills in preparing a final research paper applying one or more theories from the course to help explain the development and spread of a specific misperception or conspiracy theory.
brendan.nyhan  course  misinformation  disinformation  public_opinion  public_policy  conspiracy_theories  political_science  teaching  dmce  networks 
18 days ago by rvenkat
How Political Opinions Change - Scientific American
-- the article is framed to suggest that people's opinion can be manipulated. Deeper political beliefs and attitudes may still be resilient to superficial interventions. Also, the results suggest that in the current media environment, public opinion swings might be a result of such mechanisms.

-- one swallow doesn't make a summer
political_psychology  public_opinion  via:nyhan 
9 weeks ago by rvenkat
Iran’s influence in Iraq is declining. Here’s why. - The Washington Post
The findings from recent surveys reveal genuinely striking changes. The percentage of Iraqi Shiites who have favorable attitudes toward Iran decreased from 88 percent in 2015 to 47 percent in the fall of 2018. During the same period, those who have unfavorable attitudes toward Iran increased from 6 percent to 51 percent. This means that the majority of Iraqi Shiites currently have negative attitudes toward Iran.

At the same time, the percentage of Shiites who believe that Iran is a reliable partner in Iraq has decreased sharply, from 76 percent to 43 percent, over the same period. Those who believe that Iran is not a reliable partner increased from 24 percent to 55 percent. There is a significant increase in the percentage of Iraqi Shiites who believe that Iran is a real threat to Iraqi sovereignty. This number has jumped from 25 percent in 2016 to 58 percent in 2018.

The same trend among Sunni Iraqis’ public opinion toward Islamic fundamentalists could be seen in my surveys over the past four years. Because of the barbarism of the Islamic State occupation in Sunni areas of Iraq, it is not surprising the Sunnis in Iraq have soured on Sunni Islamist fundamentalism. The new survey leaves no doubt that Iraqi Shiites are showing the same trend toward Iran.
polls  Iran  Iraq  Shia  Sunni  public_opinion 
9 weeks ago by elizrael

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