pascal's_wager   9
> Let us say that the 10 livres that you have in your wallet are worth to you the equivalent of one happy day. Let’s call this quantity of good 1 Util. So I ask you to give up 1 Util. In return, I could promise to perform the magic tomorrow that will give you an extra 10 quadrillion happy days, i.e. 10 quadrillion Utils. Since you say there is a 1 in 10 quadrillion probability that I will fulfil my promise, this would be a fair deal. The expected Utility for you would be zero
fairness  probability  utility  philosophy  pascal's_mugging  pascal's_wager 
july 2012 by porejide
Peter Thiel - The Seasteading Institute Conference 2009 on Vimeo
Why has the future not arrived as quickly as we thought it would have arrived? Most people are extremely complacent about these set of questions. But so many things depend implicitly on accelerating tech, like growth of pension funds. If VC money doesn't work then you're not going to be making money in the conventional stock market either. On the one hand this stuff is assumed as incredibly strange and weird and other the other hand is it extremely important to econ growth. 2008 crisis should be thought of the lack of assumed exponential tech progress. Thus seasteading is absolutely necessary, the alternative is for all of us to gently go into that good night, which Thiel says he refuses to do.
technology  peter_thiel  future  finance  seasteading  pascal's_wager  VC  2010 
august 2010 by porejide
Pascal's Wager and Climate Change - O'Reilly Radar
"1. We've made major investments in renewable energy. ... 2. We've invested in a potent new source of jobs. ... 3. We've improved our national security by reducing our dependence on oil from hostile or unstable regions. 4. We've mitigated the enormous "off the books" economic losses from pollution. ... 5. We've renewed our industrial base, investing in new industries rather than propping up old ones. Climate critics like Bjorn Lomborg like to cite the cost of dealing with global warming. But the costs are similar to the "costs" incurred by record companies in the switch to digital music distribution, or the costs to newspapers implicit in the rise of the web. That is, they are costs to existing industries, but ignore the opportunities for new industries that exploit the new technology. I have yet to see a convincing case made that the costs of dealing with climate change aren't principally the costs of protecting old industries."
environment  climate_change  global-warming  Pascal's_Wager  Tim_O'Reilly  2009 
january 2009 by Preoccupations
Stephen Fry » Blog Archive » Getting Overheated
"Doing nothing risks everything and gains comparatively little, doing something risks comparatively little and gains the whole world."
global-warming  Stephen_Fry  2007  climate_change  Pascal's_Wager 
may 2008 by Preoccupations

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