methodology-quantitative   12

Andrew Gelman - The problems with p-values are not just with p-values: My comments on the recent ASA statement - March 2016
His blog Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science -- The American Statistical Association just released a committee report on the use of p-values. I was one of the members of the committee but I did not write the…
Instapaper  quantitative_methods  statistics  social_sciences  uncertainty  probability  methodology-quantitative  scientific_culture  research  publishing-academic  pharma  causation  evidence  from instapaper
march 2016 by dunnettreader
Dan Priel - Toward Classical Legal Positivism (Symposium - Jurisprudence and (Its) History) | Virginia Law Review - 101 Va. L. Rev. 987 (2015)
I have two major aims: (1) set the historical record straight(...) Hobbes’s and Bentham’s work that seeks to understand their views on law not by isolating it from the rest of their wide-ranging body of work, but by understanding their jurisprudential work as part of a broader project. (2) My main aim is to contribute to contemporary jurisprudential debates and to suggest that the largely neglected approach of earlier positivists is superior to the view held by most contemporary legal positivists. (...) to what extent it is useful for us to call Hobbes and Bentham “legal positivists.” My answer to this question consists of three interrelated points. The first is that we draw an explicit link between their ideas and the view that (some time later) would come to be known as “positivism,” roughly the view that the methods of the “human sciences” are essentially the same as those of the natural sciences. The second point is that the classical legal positivists’ decisive break with natural law ideas prevalent in their day is to be found exactly here, in their views about metaphysics and nature. The third point is that this aspect of their work has been, in my view regrettably, abandoned by contemporary legal positivists. Though all three points are related, in this Article I will say relatively little about the first point, as I discussed it in greater detail elsewhere. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  philosophy_of_law  jurisprudence  political_philosophy  intellectual_history  intellectual_history-distorted  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  Hobbes  Bentham  natural_law  natural_rights  positivism-legal  analytical_philosophy  metaphysics  natural_philosophy  nature  human_nature  scientific_method  social_theory  social_sciences  positivism  positive_law  Methodenstreit  methodology-quantitative  epistemology  sociology_of_knowledge  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Jeffrey A. Pojanowski - Positivism(s): A Commentary on Priel's "Toward Classical Legal Positivism" | Virginia Law Review - 101 Va. L. Rev. 1023 (2015)
Anglo-American jurisprudence, before it insulated itself in conceptual analysis and defined itself in opposition to broader questions, was properly a “sociable science,” to use Professor Postema’s phrase from his symposium article. And, in part due to the exemplars of history, so it may become again. By drawing on Bentham and Hobbes, Professor Dan Priel’s Toward Classical Positivism points forward toward more fruitful methods of jurisprudence while illuminating the recent history and current state of inquiry. His article demonstrates the virtues and promise of a more catholic approach to jurisprudence. It also raises challenging questions about the direction to take this rediscovered path, and I am not sure I always agree with his suggested answers. Any misgivings I have about Priel’s particular approach, however, do not diminish my appreciation; I find even the points of disagreement to be live and meaningful, and that itself is refreshing. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  philosophy_of_law  jurisprudence  political_philosophy  intellectual_history  intellectual_history-distorted  17thC  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  Hobbes  Bentham  natural_law  natural_rights  positivism-legal  analytical_philosophy  metaphysics  natural_philosophy  nature  human_nature  scientific_method  social_theory  social_sciences  positivism  positive_law  Methodenstreit  methodology-quantitative  epistemology  sociology_of_knowledge  downloaded 
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Andrew W. Lo - Reconciling Efficient Markets with Behavioral Finance: The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - 2005 :: SSRN - Journal of Investment Consulting, Forthcoming
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- The battle between proponents of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and champions of behavioral finance has never been more pitched, and there is little consensus as to which side is winning or what the implications are for investment management and consulting. In this article, I review the case for and against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and describe a new framework - the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - in which the traditional models of modern financial economics can co-exist alongside behavioral models in an intellectually consistent manner. Based on evolutionary principles, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis implies that the degree of market efficiency is related to environmental factors characterizing market ecology such as the number of competitors in the market, the magnitude of profit opportunities available, and the adaptability of the market participants. Many of the examples that behavioralists cite as violations of rationality that are inconsistent with market efficiency - loss aversion, overconfidence, overreaction, mental accounting, and other behavioral biases - are, in fact, consistent with an evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via simple heuristics. Despite the qualitative nature of this new paradigm, I show that the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis yields a number of surprisingly concrete applications for both investment managers and consultants. -- Pages in PDF File: 44 Keywords: Efficient markets, behavioral finance, adaptive markets
paper  SSRN  financial_economics  EMH  behavioral_economics  markets-structure  markets-psychology  rationality-economics  rationality-adaptive  efficiency  heuristics  methodology-qualitative  methodology-quantitative  complex_adaptive_systems  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Liggio, Leonard P. "Richard Cantillon and the French Economists: Distinctive French Contributions to J.B. Say." - The Journal of Libertarian Studies ( 1985) | Mises Institute
Liggio, Leonard P. "Richard Cantillon and the French Economists: Distinctive French Contributions to J.B. Say." Journal of Libertarian Studies 7, No. 2 (1985): 295–304. Richard Cantillon's life and his Essai occurred at a time of transition in European political, economic and intellectual history. The late seventeenth century had experienced the crisis in European thought which paralleled the Scientific Revolution. Accompanying the scientific revolution was a revolution in economic thought. Criticisms of mercantilism began to lay the groundwork for the Economic Revolution of the eighteenth century. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  intellectual_history  17thC  18thC  Europe-Early_Modern  Cantillon  Scientific_Revolution  social_theory  political_economy  IR_theory  mercantilism  economic_theory  economic_growth  methodology-quantitative  political_arithmetick  social_order  financial_system  banking  cross-border  capital_flows  capital_markets  sovereignty  sovereign_debt  downloaded 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Carl Menger - Investigations into the Method of the Social Sciences - Books | Mises Institute
The famed Methodenstreit of the late 19th century was the battle of method. It pitted the emerging Austrian School against the German Historical School over a critically important question: what is the proper way to do social science? Here, Carl Menger, the founder of the School, vindicates the importance of theory, and lays the foundation for later developments by Mises and others. The book was written twelve years after his principles book, and it sought to deal with the hostility with which that book was greeted in the German world. Menger argues that economics can and must be more than an effort at observing, collecting, and assembling data. It can make general observations about the laws of economics that operate independently of time and place. -- No Austrian can overlook this very important treatise on method. This edition includes an introduction by Lawrence White that frames up the debate over method in light of modern trends in economic theory. -- This edition copyright NYU in 1960s and Mises Institute 2009 -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  19thC  intellectual_history  Germany  German_historical_school  German_scholarship  historicism  economic_theory  economic_sociology  social_theory  social_sciences  Methodenstreit  methodology-quantitative  causation-social  covering_laws  Austrian_economics  downloaded 
february 2015 by dunnettreader
Ansar, Flyvbjerg, Budzier, Lunn - Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development (Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.) :: SSRN
Atif Ansar - University of Oxford - Blavatnik School of Government -- Bent Flyvbjerg - University of Oxford - Said Business School -- Alexander Budzier - University of Oxford - Saïd Business School.-- Daniel Lunn - University of Oxford - Department of Statistics *--* A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the “outside view” or “reference class forecasting” based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams — excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects. - Number of Pages in PDF File: 14 - Keywords: Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside -- didn't download
article  SSRN  development  energy  IFIs  business-and-politics  statistics  social_sciences  methodology-quantitative  decision_theory  international_finance  institutional_economics  business-forecasts 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Jon Elster - One Social Science or Many? - 2009 | Scribd
Discusses his version of methodological individualism and aggregated units of analysis as "second best" -- example of household as unit distorts behavior because doesn't capture social dynamics within hiusehold -- ends with appeal to the various social sciences reading classics of history -- jn other wirds, "history is philosophy teaching by example"
paper  Scribd  social_theory  social_sciences-post-WWII  behavioral_economics  methodology-quantitative  methodology  individualism-methodology  Bolingbroke  historical_sociology  history-as_experiment  history-and-social_sciences 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Nancy Cartwright on RCTs | LARS P. SYLL - July 2014
I’m fond of science philosophers like Nancy Cartwright. With razor-sharp intellects they immediately go for the essentials. They have no time for bullshit. And neither should we. In Evidence: For Policy — downloadable here — Cartwirght has assembled her papers on how better to use evidence from the sciences “to evaluate whether policies that have been tried have succeeded and to predict whether those we are thinking of trying will produce the outcomes we aim for.” Many of the collected papers center around what can and cannot be inferred from results in well-done randomised controlled trials (RCTs). A must-read for everyone with an interest in the methodology of science -- downloaded pdf to Note
methodology  methodology-quantitative  philosophy_of_science  epistemology  evidence  downloaded 
august 2014 by dunnettreader
Joel Lieske - The Changing Regional Subcultures of the American States and the Utility of a New Cultural Measure | JSTOR: Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 63, No. 3 (SEPTEMBER 2010), pp. 538-552
This study analyzes changes in the regional subcultures of the United States using 2000 census and religious survey data. The results suggest a remarkable degree of continuity with those the authors identified in an earlier study. In addition, they demonstrate that a new multidimensional measure of state culture does a much better job in predicting social and political behavior than other frequently used indicators. Finally, they show how their new measure of state culture significantly reduces and often eliminates the problem of spatial autocorrelation in many state-level indicators that cannot be explained by differences in economic development and racial—ethnic diversity. -- Some useful discussion re that "political culture" is real, but how to measure it. Distinguishes ideology (the what of policies) from political culture (the how of government). Compares approach with work that stemmed from Fischer 4 British folkways traced through immigration and subsequent migration patterns. -- didn't download
article  jstor  political_science  political_culture  ideology  immigration  migration  US_politics  US_history  US_government  methodology-quantitative  EF-add 
february 2014 by dunnettreader

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