meta:war   135

« earlier    

Chickenhawks – Gene Expression
I know I seem like a warblogger, and I promise I’ll shift to something more esoteric and non-current-eventsy very soon, but check this table out on fatalities by profession. It ranges from 50 per 100,000 for cab-drivers to 100 per 100,000 for fisherman & loggers. Granted, there have surely been work related fatalities in the American military in the past year, but we’ve had about 30 fatalities so far, and perhaps we’ll go up to 200-300 in the current campaign if we don’t get into house-to-house fighting. How many fatalities occurred during the Afghan campaign? Look at this table of historic casualty rates. I don’t do this to say that being a soldier is something that isn’t a big deal-but for me, the “chickenhawk” insult seems less resonant taking into the account the changes that have been wrought by technology in the post-Vietnam era. Casualty rates seem to be approaching the order of magnitude of some of the more cvil dangerous professions. That is most certainly a good thing.
gnxp  scitariat  commentary  war  meta:war  usa  iraq-syria  MENA  military  death  pro-rata  data  comparison  fighting  outcome-risk  uncertainty  martial  time-series  history  early-modern  mostly-modern  pre-ww2  world-war  europe  gallic  revolution  the-south  germanic  israel  scale  magnitude  cold-war 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Sources on Technical History | Salo Forum - Chic Nihilism
This is a thread where people can chip in and list some good sources for the history of technology and mechanisms (hopefully with illustrations), books on infrastructure or industrial geography, or survey books in engineering. This is a thread that remains focused on the "technical" and not historical side.

Now, on the history of technology alone if I comprehensively listed every book, paper, etc., I've read on the subject since childhood then this thread would run well over 100 pages (seriously). I'll try to compress it by dealing with entire authors, journals, and publishers even.

First, a note on preliminaries: the best single-volume primer on the physics, internal components and subsystems of military weapons (including radar, submarines) is Craig Payne's Principles of Naval Weapons Systems. Make sure to get the second edition, the first edition is useless.
gnon  🐸  chan  poast  links  reading  technology  dirty-hands  the-world-is-just-atoms  military  defense  letters  discussion  list  books  recommendations  confluence  arms  war  heavy-industry  mostly-modern  world-war  history  encyclopedic  meta:war  offense-defense  quixotic 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Austria-Hungary | West Hunter
Diversity is our strength? I’m Hungarian, and I can tell you one thing: in the case of Austria-Hungary, diversity was a weakness.

It was much different from the modern US & Western Europe, where it is indeed a strength. At least, that’s what politicians and cultural Marxist intellectuals over there are saying, and I’m sure I can trust them, because if you can’t trust politicians and cultural Marxist intellectuals, who can you trust at all?
--
It’s a hodgepodge of languages, like “mi” is “we” in Hungarian (and if you say “a mi erőnk”, it’d mean “our strength”, so I guess it stands for “our” here), or “Stärke” is “strength” in German. The first word is some Slavic language, could be Czech or Slovakian.
--
Resilient until a serious war came around with a mass conscripted army. It did better in the 18th century with small professional armies. It’d do better again in the 21st century, with the return of the small professional armies.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  troll  europe  eastern-europe  diversity  putnam-like  conquest-empire  aphorism  lol  history  mostly-modern  pre-ww2  world-war  cohesion  early-modern  cost-benefit  war  military  context  germanic  meta:war  defense 
november 2017 by nhaliday
The “Hearts and Minds” Fallacy: Violence, Coercion, and Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare | International Security | MIT Press Journals
The U.S. prescription for success has had two main elements: to support liberalizing, democratizing reforms to reduce popular grievances; and to pursue a military strategy that carefully targets insurgents while avoiding harming civilians. An analysis of contemporaneous documents and interviews with participants in three cases held up as models of the governance approach—Malaya, Dhofar, and El Salvador—shows that counterinsurgency success is the result of a violent process of state building in which elites contest for power, popular interests matter little, and the government benefits from uses of force against civilians.

https://twitter.com/foxyforecaster/status/893049155337244672
https://archive.is/zhOXD
this is why liberal states mostly fail in counterinsurgency wars

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-why-are-we-still-in-afghanistan/

contrary study:
Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies: https://academic.oup.com/qje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/qje/qjx037/4110419
This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced noncommunist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions that pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes toward the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a more hearts-and-minds-oriented approach. JEL Codes: F35, F51, F52

anecdote:
Military Adventurer Raymond Westerling On How To Defeat An Insurgency: http://www.socialmatter.net/2018/03/12/military-adventurer-raymond-westerling-on-how-to-defeat-an-insurgency/
study  war  meta:war  military  defense  terrorism  MENA  strategy  tactics  cynicism-idealism  civil-liberty  kumbaya-kult  foreign-policy  realpolitik  usa  the-great-west-whale  occident  democracy  antidemos  institutions  leviathan  government  elite  realness  multi  twitter  social  commentary  stylized-facts  evidence-based  objektbuch  attaq  chart  contrarianism  scitariat  authoritarianism  nl-and-so-can-you  westminster  iraq-syria  polisci  🎩  conquest-empire  news  org:lite  power  backup  martial  nietzschean  pdf  piracy  britain  asia  developing-world  track-record  expansionism  peace-violence  interests  china  race  putnam-like  anglosphere  latin-america  volo-avolo  cold-war  endogenous-exogenous  shift  natural-experiment  rounding  gnon  org:popup  europe  germanic  japan  history  mostly-modern  world-war  examples  death  nihil  dominant-minority  tribalism  ethnocentrism  us-them  letters 
august 2017 by nhaliday
William Tecumseh Sherman - Wikiquote
You people of the South don't know what you are doing. This country will be drenched in blood, and God only knows how it will end. It is all folly, madness, a crime against civilization! You people speak so lightly of war; you don't know what you're talking about. War is a terrible thing! You mistake, too, the people of the North. They are a peaceable people but an earnest people, and they will fight, too. They are not going to let this country be destroyed without a mighty effort to save it … Besides, where are your men and appliances of war to contend against them? The North can make a steam engine, locomotive, or railway car; hardly a yard of cloth or pair of shoes can you make. You are rushing into war with one of the most powerful, ingeniously mechanical, and determined people on Earth — right at your doors. You are bound to fail. Only in your spirit and determination are you prepared for war. In all else you are totally unprepared, with a bad cause to start with. At first you will make headway, but as your limited resources begin to fail, shut out from the markets of Europe as you will be, your cause will begin to wane. If your people will but stop and think, they must see in the end that you will surely fail.

...

I’ve been where you are now and I know just how you feel. It’s entirely natural that there should beat in the breast of every one of you a hope and desire that some day you can use the skill you have acquired here.
Suppress it! You don’t know the horrible aspects of war. I’ve been through two wars and I know. I’ve seen cities and homes in ashes. I’ve seen thousands of men lying on the ground, their dead faces looking up at the skies. I tell you, war is Hell!

https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/852526306839470080
https://archive.is/UB737
Perhaps not Abraham Lincoln but William Tecumseh Sherman ushered in the new America, knowing that USA would rule through ruthless total war.
big-peeps  old-anglo  aristos  statesmen  quotes  people  wiki  list  aphorism  war  martial  death  nihil  peace-violence  multi  twitter  social  discussion  pic  backup  ratty  unaffiliated  links  military  meta:war  history  early-modern  usa  northeast  the-south  american-nations  optimate  nietzschean  zeitgeist  pre-ww2  conquest-empire  alien-character  nascent-state  anglosphere 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Language, Religion, and Ethnic Civil WarJournal of Conflict Resolution - Nils-Christian Bormann, Lars-Erik Cederman, Manuel Vogt, 2017
Our findings indicate that intrastate conflict is more likely within linguistic dyads than among religious ones. Moreover, we find no support for the thesis that Muslim groups are particularly conflict-prone.
study  foreign-policy  realpolitik  polisci  war  meta:war  peace-violence  diversity  race  ethnocentrism  us-them  world  evidence-based  language  religion  putnam-like 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Over the long term civilization matters – Gene Expression
This sort of dynamic has been used to argue that Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order is not a useful framework. But on the contrary what Turchin and colleagues have shown is that over the long run civilizational fissures tend to result in the most vicious and dehumanizing wars.
gnxp  scitariat  discussion  turchin  broad-econ  cultural-dynamics  religion  theos  anthropology  civilization  tribalism  long-short-run  huntington  things  big-picture  history  early-modern  europe  gallic  the-great-west-whale  christianity  islam  mediterranean  cohesion  coalitions  protestant-catholic  war  meta:war  great-powers  occident  orient  walls  the-bones  hari-seldon 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Has war been declining? | OUPblog
People have always alternated between the three behavioural options of cooperation, peaceful competition, and violence to attain evolution-shaped human desires. Developments since the onset of the industrial age from 1815 onwards have radically shifted the calculus of war and peace towards the two peaceful options, sharply decreasing belligerency in the parts of the world affected by the process of modernization. Rather than war becoming more costly in terms of life and resources, as many believe to be the case (not so), the real change is that peace has become more rewarding. The Modernization Peace concept scrutinizes, contextualizes, and encompasses within a comprehensive framework the various peace theories advanced over the past few decades, and shows the more valid ones to be elements of a greater whole. By now, war has disappeared within the world’s most developed areas and survives only in its less developed, developing, and undeveloped parts.

Finally, the Modernization Peace concept has been disrupted in the past, most conspicuously during the two world wars, and challenges to it still arise. Challenges include claimants to alternative modernity—such as China and Russia, still much behind in levels of development and affluence—anti-modernists, and failed modernizers that may spawn terrorism, potentially unconventional. While the world has become more peaceful than ever before, with war unprecedentedly disappearing in its most developed parts, there is still much to worry about in terms of security and there is no place for complacency.
essay  article  expert  war  meta:war  peace-violence  martial  cooperate-defect  china  asia  russia  modernity  pinker  trends  the-bones  zeitgeist  broad-econ  org:edu  anthropology  tetlock  incentives  cost-benefit  roots  expert-experience 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Information Processing: The Pivot and American Statecraft in Asia
Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, critiques the Obama administration's so-called pivot to Asia. Australian strategists are a good source of analysis on this issue because they are caught in the middle and have to think realistically about the situation.

Whenever I see a book or article on this topic I quickly search for terms like DF-21, ASBM, ASCM, cruise missiles, satellite imaging, submarines, etc. The discussion cannot be serious or deep without an understanding of current military and technological capabilities of both sides. (See High V, Low M.)

...

This Aug 2016 RAND report delves into some of the relevant issues (see Appendix A, p.75). But it is not clear whether the 2025 or 2015 scenarios explored will be more realistic over the next few years. A weakness of the report is that it assumes US forces will undertake large scale conventional attack on the Chinese mainland (referred to as Air Sea Battle by US planners) relatively early in the conflict, without fear of nuclear retaliation. A real decision maker could not confidently make that assumption, PRC "no first use" declaration notwithstanding.

See also Future Warfare in the Western Pacific (International Security, Summer 2016) for a detailed analysis of A2AD capability, potentially practiced by both sides. I disagree with the authors' claim that the effectiveness of A2AD in 2040 will be limited to horizon distances (they assume all satellites have been destroyed). The authors neglect the possibility of large numbers of stealthy drone radar platforms (or micro-satellites) which are hard to detect until they activate to provide targeting data to incoming missiles.

This article by Peter Lee gives a realistic summary of the situation, including the role of nuclear weapons. As a journalist, Lee is not under the same political restrictions as RAND or others funded by the US military / defense industry. The survivability of the surface fleet (=aircraft carriers) and the escalatory nature of what is known as Air Sea Battle (=ASB) are both highly sensitive topics.
hsu  scitariat  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  world  foreign-policy  realpolitik  geopolitics  anglo  info-foraging  track-record  statesmen  books  review  military  technology  arms  war  meta:war  oceans  journos-pundits  realness  kumbaya-kult  strategy  tactics  thucydides  great-powers  expansionism  sky  dirty-hands 
june 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

2017  ability-competence  academia  acemoglu  adversarial  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  agriculture  ai-control  ai  alien-character  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  american-nations  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  applications  archaeology  aristos  arms  article  asia  attaq  audio  authoritarianism  automation  axioms  backup  barons  behavioral-gen  being-becoming  being-right  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  biophysical-econ  biotech  books  bootstraps  bounded-cognition  branches  britain  broad-econ  business  canada  canon  capital  causation  chan  charity  chart  checklists  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class-warfare  class  climate-change  clinton  cliometrics  clown-world  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  commentary  communism  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  confluence  confucian  conquest-empire  context  contrarianism  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  courage  cracker-econ  crime  criminal-justice  critique  crooked  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  culture  curiosity  current-events  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  database  dataset  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  deep-materialism  deepgoog  defense  definite-planning  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  descriptive  deterrence  developing-world  differential  dirty-hands  discipline  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  dominant-minority  drugs  duty  dynamic  early-modern  earth  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  economics  econotariat  eden  education  eea  effect-size  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  ego-depletion  egt  elections  electromag  elite  embedded-cognition  embodied-cognition  embodied  emotion  encyclopedic  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  environment  envy  epidemiology  epigenetics  epistemic  error  essay  ethanol  ethics  ethnocentrism  ethnography  europe  events  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  examples  exit-voice  expansionism  experiment  expert-experience  expert  explanans  explanation  expression-survival  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fermi  fertility  feudal  fighting  finance  flux-stasis  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  frontier  futurism  gallic  games  gavisti  gedanken  gender-diff  gender  gene-flow  genetics  geoengineering  geography  geometry  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gibbon  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  government  gravity  gray-econ  great-powers  group-selection  growth-econ  gt-101  guilt-shame  gwern  hanson  hari-seldon  heavy-industry  heuristic  higher-ed  history  hmm  homo-hetero  honor  hsu  human-capital  human-ml  humility  huntington  ideas  identity-politics  identity  ideology  idk  illusion  impact  impetus  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  info-dynamics  info-foraging  infographic  infrastructure  inhibition  innovation  institutions  intel  interests  internet  intervention  interview  iq  iran  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  islam  israel  japan  jargon  journos-pundits  judaism  kinship  kissinger  knowledge  korea  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  latin-america  law  leadership  leaks  left-wing  legacy  legibility  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  lexical  links  list  literature  lived-experience  lol  long-short-run  low-hanging  machiavelli  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malthus  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  markets  martial  maxim-gun  measure  measurement  mechanics  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  mena  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  microfoundations  microsoft  migrant-crisis  migration  military  models  modernity  moloch  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  murray  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  neocons  network-structure  news  nibble  nietzschean  nihil  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  noahpinion  nordic  north-weingast-like  northeast  nuclear  nyc  obama  objektbuch  occident  oceans  offense-defense  old-anglo  open-closed  optimate  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:data  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edu  org:foreign  org:gov  org:junk  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orient  oscillation  outcome-risk  papers  parallax  parasites-microbiome  parenting  parsimony  path-dependence  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  persuasion  pessimism  pharma  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  pic  piketty  pinker  piracy  plots  poast  podcast  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  pop-diff  popsci  population  populism  power  pre-2013  pre-ww2  prediction  prepping  presentation  pro-rata  profile  project  property-rights  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoe  psychiatry  psychology  public-goodish  public-health  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  quality  quixotic  quotes  race  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  realpolitik  reason  recommendations  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression-to-mean  regulation  relativity  religion  rent-seeking  replication  research  responsibility  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  risk  robotics  roots  rot  rounding  russia  s:*  safety  sapiens  scale  science  scitariat  security  selection  self-control  selfish-gene  sex  sexuality  shift  signal-noise  signaling  simulation  sinosphere  skunkworks  sky  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  social  sociology  space  spatial  speaking  speculation  spock  spreading  ssc  stackex  stagnation  stamina  statesmen  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  study  stylized-facts  subculture  sulla  summary  survey  survival  systematic-ad-hoc  tactics  taxes  technology  techtariat  temperature  terrorism  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-south  the-trenches  the-world-is-just-atoms  theos  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time-preference  time-series  time  top-n  track-record  trade  tradecraft  trends  tribalism  trivia  troll  trust  truth  turchin  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  video  vitality  volo-avolo  walls  walter-scheidel  war  water  wealth-of-nations  wealth  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  woah  wonkish  world-war  world  writing  x-not-about-y  yarvin  yoga  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  👽  🔬 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: