market-power   44

What Peter Thiel thinks about AI risk - Less Wrong
TL;DR: he thinks its an issue but also feels AGI is very distant and hence less worried about it than Musk.

I recommend the rest of the lecture as well, it's a good summary of "Zero to One"  and a good QA afterwards.

For context, in case anyone doesn't realize: Thiel has been MIRI's top donor throughout its history.

other stuff:
nice interview question: "thing you know is true that not everyone agrees on?"
"learning from failure overrated"
cleantech a huge market, hard to compete
software makes for easy monopolies (zero marginal costs, network effects, etc.)
for most of history inventors did not benefit much (continuous competition)
ethical behavior is a luxury of monopoly
ratty  lesswrong  commentary  ai  ai-control  risk  futurism  technology  speedometer  audio  presentation  musk  thiel  barons  frontier  miri-cfar  charity  people  track-record  venture  startups  entrepreneurialism  contrarianism  competition  market-power  business  google  truth  management  leadership  socs-and-mops  dark-arts  skunkworks  hard-tech  energy-resources  wire-guided  learning  software  sv  tech  network-structure  scale  marginal  cost-benefit  innovation  industrial-revolution  economics  growth-econ  capitalism  comparison  nationalism-globalism  china  asia  trade  stagnation  things  dimensionality  exploratory  world  developing-world  thinking  definite-planning  optimism  pessimism  intricacy  politics  war  career  planning  supply-demand  labor  science  engineering  dirty-hands  biophysical-econ  migration  human-capital  policy  canada  anglo  winner-take-all  polarization  amazon  business-models  allodium  civilization  the-classics  microsoft  analogy  gibbon  conquest-empire  realness  cynicism-idealism  org:edu  open-closed  ethics  incentives  m 
february 2018 by nhaliday
What era are our intuitions about elites and business adapted to? – Gene Expression
Above natural states are open-access orders, which characterize societies that have market economies and competitive politics. Here access to the elite is open to anyone who can prove themselves worthy — it is not artificially restricted in order to preserve large rents for the incumbents. The pie can be made bigger with more people at the top, since you only get to the top in such societies by making and selling things that people want. Elite members compete against each other based on the quality and price of the goods and services they sell — it’s a mercantile elite — rather than based on who is better at violence than the others. If the elites are flabby, upstarts can readily form their own organizations — as opposed to not having the freedom to do so — that, if better, will dethrone the incumbents. Since violence is no longer part of elite competition, homicide rates are the lowest of all types of societies.

OK, now let’s take a look at just two innate views that most people have about how the business world works or what economic elites are like, and see how these are adaptations to natural states rather than to the very new open-access orders (which have only existed in Western Europe since about 1850 or so). One is the conviction, common even among many businessmen, that market share matters more than making profits — that being more popular trumps being more profitable. The other is most people’s mistrust of companies that dominate their entire industry, like Microsoft in computers.
gnxp  scitariat  reflection  farmers-and-foragers  sapiens  instinct  politics  coalitions  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  political-econ  polisci  leviathan  north-weingast-like  unintended-consequences  open-closed  biases  government  markets  market-power  rent-seeking  capitalism  democracy  roots  EEA  inequality  egalitarianism-hierarchy  business  cost-benefit  interests  elite  hari-seldon 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Yale Law Journal - Amazon's Antitrust Paradox
This Note argues that the current framework in antitrust—specifically its pegging competition to “consumer welfare,” defined as short-term price effects—is unequipped to capture the architecture of market power in the modern economy. We cannot cognize the potential harms to competition posed by Amazon’s dominance if we measure competition primarily through price and output. Specifically, current doctrine underappreciates the risk of predatory pricing and how integration across distinct business lines may prove anticompetitive. These concerns are heightened in the context of online platforms for two reasons. First, the economics of platform markets create incentives for a company to pursue growth over profits, a strategy that investors have rewarded. Under these conditions, predatory pricing becomes highly rational—even as existing doctrine treats it as irrational and therefore implausible. Second, because online platforms serve as critical intermediaries, integrating across business lines positions these platforms to control the essential infrastructure on which their rivals depend. This dual role also enables a platform to exploit information collected on companies using its services to undermine them as competitors.
Amazon Must Be Stopped:

Amazon Will Go To Denver:
Real things cities are offering to get Amazon HQ2
*Chicago: Let Amazon keep employees' income tax
*SoCal: Give away $100M in land
*Boston: City employees working just for Amazon
*Fresno: Let Amazon decide how to spend tax dollars
Washington, D.C., might have a leg up, having already hosted Amazon Chief Executive Jeff Bezos for visits when he considered acquiring the Washington Post, which he now owns. Mr. Bezos also purchased the former Textile Museum in Washington’s Kalorama neighborhood for $23 million in 2016 and is currently turning it into a private residence.

28-year-old makes millions buying from Walmart, selling on Amazon:
Thread: Why Amazon’s HQ2 is going to Fairfax County
walmart is the only entity that has even a slim chance at preventing jeff bezos from intermediating every commodity exchange in the world, u must respect
"I tried to save you, but you didn't listen. Now you'll have to face Him alone..."

What Amazon does to wages:
Is the world’s largest retailer underpaying its employees?

Flat or falling industry wages are common in the cities and towns where Amazon opens distribution centres, according to an analysis by The Economist. Government figures show that after Amazon opens a storage depot, local wages for warehouse workers fall by an average of 3%. In places where Amazon operates, such workers earn about 10% less than similar workers employed elsewhere.

What Amazon Does to Poor Cities:
The debate over Amazon’s HQ2 obscures the company’s rapid expansion of warehouses in low-income areas.

The Facts Behind Trump’s Tweets on Amazon, Taxes and the Postal Service:

If Workers Slack Off, the Wristband Will Know. (And Amazon Has a Patent for It.):

auto-management -> automation dystopia:

Amazon’s vision for the future: delivery drone beehives in every city:
article  essay  study  law  business  industrial-org  market-power  rent-seeking  amazon  sv  tech  markets  capitalism  winner-take-all  multi  news  org:mag  org:biz  gnxp  scitariat  commentary  current-events  org:lite  right-wing  corporation  trends  zeitgeist  rhetoric  barons  management  org:rec  usa  the-west  video  profile  arbitrage  entrepreneurialism  microbiz  feudal  prediction  prediction-markets  power  org:local  twitter  social  discussion  speculation  backup  the-south  virginia-DC  planning  career  org:bv  econotariat  marginal-rev  inequality  gnon  🐸  memes(ew)  data  econ-metrics  marginal  malaise  supply-demand  labor  coming-apart  compensation  intervention  branches  org:anglo  automation  techtariat  ai  scifi-fantasy  pessimism  optimism  orwellian  vampire-squid  left-wing  trump  media  propaganda  taxes  government  capital 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Is America Encouraging the Wrong Kind of Entrepreneurship?
Of Baumol’s many contributions to economics, the most famous is cost disease, which explains why high-productivity industries raise costs and therefore prices in low-productivity industries. The insight is particularly relevant now, as economic activity has shifted into low-productivity services like health care and education, where price increases are devouring public and household budgets, and whose continued low productivity has weighed down U.S. productivity growth overall.

But there’s a lesser-known idea of Baumol’s that is equally relevant today and that may help explain America’s productivity slump. Baumol’s writing raises the possibility that U.S. productivity is low because would-be entrepreneurs are focused on the wrong kind of work.
news  org:biz  economics  business  industrial-org  startups  entrepreneurialism  trends  rot  market-power  rent-seeking  winner-take-all  corruption  anomie  government  regulation  usa  stagnation  madisonian  capitalism  class-warfare  zeitgeist  org:mag 
june 2017 by nhaliday
An Economic Analysis of the Protestant Reformation
- Ekelund, Hébert, Tollison

This paper seeks to explain the initial successes and failures of Protestantism on economic grounds. It argues that the medieval Roman Catholic Church, through doctrinal manipulation, the exclusion of rivals, and various forms of price discrimination, ultimately placed members seeking the Z good "spiritual services" on the margin of defection. These monopolistic practices encouraged entry by rival firms, some of which were aligned with civil governments. The paper hypothesizes that Protestant entry was facilitated in emergent entrepreneurial societies characterized by the decline of feudalism and relatively unstable distribution of wealth and repressed in more homogeneous, rent-seeking societies that were mostly dissipating rather than creating wealth. In these societies the Roman Church was more able to continue the practice of price discrimination. Informal tests of this proposition are conducted by considering primogeniture and urban growth as proxies for wealth stability.

Causes and Consequences of the Protestant Reformation:
- Sascha O. Becker, Steven Pfaff, Jared Rubin

The Protestant Reformation is one of the defining events of the last millennium. Nearly 500 years after the Reformation, its causes and consequences have seen a renewed interest in the social sciences. Research in economics, sociology, and political science increasingly uses detailed individual-level, city-level, and regional-level data to identify drivers of the adoption of the Reformation, its diffusion pattern, and its socioeconomic consequences. We take stock of this research, pointing out what we know and what we do not know and suggesting the most promising areas for future research.

Table 1: Studies of the Supply and Demand-Side Factors of the Reformation
Table 2: Studies on the Consequences of the Reformation: Human Capital
Table 3: Studies on the Consequences of the Reformation: Work and Work Ethic
Table 4: Studies on the Consequences of the Reformation: Economic Development
Table 5: Studies on the Consequences of the Reformation: Governance
Table 6: Studies on the “Dark” Consequences of the Reformation

- Murat Iyigun

Various historical accounts have suggested that the Ottomans' rise helped the Protestant Reformation as well as its offshoots, such as Zwinglianism, Anabaptism, and Calvinism, survive their infancy and mature. Utilizing a comprehensive data set on violent confrontations for the interval between 1401 and 1700 CE, I show that the incidence of military engagements between the Protestant Reformers and the Counter-Reformation forces between the 1520s and 1650s depended negatively on the Ottomans' military activities in Europe. Furthermore, I document that the impact of the Ottomans on Europe went beyond suppressing ecclesiastical conflicts only: at the turn of the sixteenth century, Ottoman conquests lowered the number of all newly initiated conflicts among the Europeans roughly by 25 percent, while they dampened all longer-running feuds by more than 15 percent. The Ottomans' military activities influenced the length of intra-European feuds too, with each Ottoman-European military engagement shortening the duration of intra-European conflicts by more than 50 percent. Thus, while the Protestant Reformation might have benefited from - and perhaps even capitalized on - the Ottoman advances in Europe, the latter seems to have played some role in reducing conflicts within Europe more generally.

Religious Competition and Reallocation: The Political Economy of Secularization in the Protestant Reformation:
- Davide Cantoni, Jeremiah Dittmar, Noam Yuchtman*

Using novel microdata, we document an unintended, first-order consequence of the Protestant Reformation: a massive reallocation of resources from religious to secular purposes. To understand this process, we propose a conceptual framework in which the introduction of religious competition shifts political markets where religious authorities provide legitimacy to rulers in exchange for control over resources. Consistent with our framework, religious competition changed the balance of power between secular and religious elites: secular authorities acquired enormous amounts of wealth from monasteries closed during the Reformation, particularly in Protestant regions. This transfer of resources had important consequences. First, it shifted the allocation of upper-tail human capital. Graduates of Protestant universities increasingly took secular, especially administrative, occupations. Protestant university students increasingly studied secular subjects, especially degrees that prepared students for public sector jobs, rather than church sector-specific theology. Second, it affected the sectoral composition of fixed investment. Particularly in Protestant regions, new construction from religious toward secular purposes, especially the building of palaces and administrative buildings, which reflected the increased wealth and power of secular lords. Reallocation was not driven by pre-existing economic or cultural differences. Our findings indicate that the Reformation played an important causal role in the secularization of the West.

look at Figure 4, holy shit

History: Science and the Reformation:
The scientific and religious revolutions that began 500 years ago were not causally related, but were both stimulated by printing, argues David Wootton.
No, the Reformation did not cause the scientific revolution. Nice brief article. 👍

No RCT = No causal claims, for or against ;)
Though I'm open to a regression discontinuity design! cc: @pseudoerasmus
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  broad-econ  history  medieval  early-modern  religion  christianity  protestant-catholic  revolution  institutions  cliometrics  🎩  europe  the-great-west-whale  chart  roots  entrepreneurialism  wealth-of-nations  rent-seeking  inequality  market-power  industrial-org  political-econ  anglosphere  sociology  polisci  egalitarianism-hierarchy  flexibility  supply-demand  models  analysis  path-dependence  divergence  leviathan  theos  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  cultural-dynamics  s:*  multi  pseudoE  piracy  conquest-empire  war  islam  mediterranean  eastern-europe  incentives  modernity  north-weingast-like  open-closed  MENA  time  density  unintended-consequences  correlation  article  survey  marginal  equilibrium  competition  distribution  wealth  comparison  things  homo-hetero  discrimination  legacy  urban  trust  corruption  morality  ethics  n-factor  diversity  redistribution  welfare-state  flux-stasis  data  scale  causation  endo-exo  natural-experiment  meta-analysis  list  education  hum 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Why Are Economists Giving Piketty the Cold Shoulder? | Boston Review
- Marshall Steinbaum (seems like a tool from Twitter)

In a review in Democracy, Lawrence Summers, perhaps the foremost representative of the economics elite at the highest reaches of the recent policymaking apparatus, ushered in what became the academic establishment’s agreed-upon reason for dismissing Capital in the Twenty-First Century, aside from its empirical contribution: that Piketty’s theory that the marginal value of capital diminishes more slowly than capital itself accumulates (hence, the famous formulation, r > g) is at odds with econometric evidence suggesting the opposite conclusion about the “marginal elasticity of substitution” between labor and capital. Hence it cannot be that a rising capital-to-income ratio causes a rising capital share of national income and—since the owners of capital are, to an increasing degree, exclusively among the rich—rising income and wealth inequality.

Matthew Rognlie—then a doctoral student, now an assistant professor at Northwestern—took up that line in even greater detail in an article that eventually appeared in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, to which he added that the rising capital-to-income ratio in Piketty’s data is disproportionately the result of the price appreciation of certain scarce stores of wealth, primarily housing and the land it sits on, not the quantity accumulation of productive capital that is the subject of the neoclassical theory of economic growth.

Finally, Jason Furman and Peter Orszag, two senior economic policymakers in Democratic administrations, released “A Firm-Level Perspective on the Role of Rents in the Rise in Inequality,” which, while not a direct response to Capital in the Twenty-First Century, took indirect issue with foregrounding the shift in national income from labor to capital and with Piketty’s story of rising inequality within the distribution of labor income: that it results from the increased power of top executives in a within-firm bargaining context. Instead they highlight rising dispersion of both firm-level profits and earnings as driving inequality dynamics between an in-group at the highest-profit, highest-earning firms, and everyone else.
Forget article's title/framing! It's a great overview of the theoretical & methodological issues occasioned by Piketty, critics, & followers
news  org:mag  letters  econotariat  economics  growth-econ  labor  class  inequality  social-science  academia  info-dynamics  capital  winner-take-all  debate  reflection  epistemic  essay  books  review  summary  🎩  piketty  article  the-bones  rent-seeking  competition  market-power  modernity  multi  twitter  social  commentary  pseudoE  broad-econ  critique  analysis  distribution  compensation  larry-summers 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Concentration and Growth | Dietrich Vollrath
Ultimately, and this is my impression, not some kind of established fact, concentration likely lowers innovative activity. Put it this way, the null hypothesis should probably be that concentration lowers innovation. An individual industry needs to provide evidence they are on the “right side of the curve” in the first AAH figure to believe concentration would be good for productivity growth in the long run.
econotariat  commentary  links  economics  growth-econ  trends  market-power  business  industrial-org  flexibility  innovation  malaise  stagnation  econ-productivity  madisonian  rent-seeking  competition  correlation  frontier  stylized-facts  chart  🎩  entrepreneurialism  rot  scale  curvature  corporation  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity 
may 2017 by nhaliday

related tags

2016-election  academia  aggregator  agriculture  ai-control  ai  alignment  allodium  amazon  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  anomie  anonymity  anthropology  antidemos  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  apple  arbitrage  aristos  art  article  asia  atmosphere  audio  authoritarianism  automation  autor  backup  barons  being-becoming  benevolence  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  books  branches  brands  broad-econ  business-models  business  california  canada  cancer  canon  capital  capitalism  career  cartoons  causation  censorship  chan  charity  chart  chicago  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class-warfare  class  classic  climate-change  clinton  cliometrics  coalitions  coarse-fine  cocktail  cold-war  collaboration  coming-apart  commentary  communication  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  composition-decomposition  computation  computer-vision  concept  conceptual-vocab  concrete  conquest-empire  context  contracts  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  courage  course  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  critique  crooked  cs  cultural-dynamics  culture  current-events  curvature  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dan-luu  dark-arts  darwinian  data  database  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  deep-materialism  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  density  detail-architecture  developing-world  dimensionality  dirty-hands  discipline  discrimination  discussion  distribution  divergence  diversity  drama  drugs  duplication  early-modern  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden-heaven  education  eea  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  einstein  elections  elite  empirical  ems  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entrepreneurialism  environment  envy  epistemic  equilibrium  essay  essence-existence  estimate  ethics  europe  events  evolution  examples  exit-voice  explanans  exploratory  externalities  extra-introversion  facebook  failure  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  fda  feudal  fiction  finance  flexibility  flux-stasis  focus  foreign-policy  free-riding  frequency  frontier  futurism  gallic  games  garett-jones  general-survey  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  germanic  giants  gibbon  gilens-page  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  god-man-beast-victim  google  government  gray-econ  growth-econ  gt-101  hanson  hard-tech  hari-seldon  harvard  hci  heavy-industry  heterodox  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  honor  housing  hsu  human-capital  human-ml  hypocrisy  ideology  impact  impetus  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  info-dynamics  info-foraging  infrastructure  innovation  input-output  insight  instinct  institutions  intel  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intervention  interview  intricacy  investigative-journo  investing  islam  iteration-recursion  janus  japan  journal-pricing  journos-pundits  justice  knowledge  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  larry-summers  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  lecture-notes  left-wing  legacy  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  limits  links  list  literature  local-global  long-short-run  longevity  longform  longitudinal  love-hate  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  management  managerial-state  manifolds  marginal-rev  marginal  market-failure  markets  math  meaningness  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  mena  meta-analysis  metabuch  metameta  methodology  micro  microbiz  microfoundations  microsoft  migration  minimum-viable  miri-cfar  mobile  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  musk  myth  n-factor  narrative  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  network-structure  neuro  new-religion  news  nietzschean  nl-and-so-can-you  noahpinion  noble-lie  noblesse-oblige  nonlinearity  north-weingast-like  northeast  nuclear  nutrition  nyc  occident  old-anglo  open-closed  optimate  optimism  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bv  org:data  org:econlib  org:edu  org:fin  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:rec  org:sci  organizing  orient  orwellian  outcome-risk  outliers  paradox  parallax  pareto  path-dependence  patience  pdf  peace-violence  people  personality  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  philosophy  physics  piketty  piracy  planning  plots  poast  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  populism  power-law  power  pre-ww2  prediction-markets  prediction  preprint  presentation  primitivism  princeton  privacy  pro-rata  probability  profile  programming  propaganda  properties  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  pseudoe  psych-architecture  psychology  publishing  putnam-like  quantum  questions  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rationality  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  recommendations  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression-to-mean  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  review  revolution  rhetoric  rhythm  right-wing  risk  ritual  robotics  roots  rot  russia  s:*  sampling-bias  sapiens  scale  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  search  securities  shakespeare  shift  signal-noise  signaling  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  sky  slippery-slope  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-science  social-structure  social  sociology  socs-and-mops  software  space  spearhead  speculation  speed  speedometer  spreading  ssc  stagnation  stanford  startups  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stochastic-processes  stock-flow  store  stories  strategy  street-fighting  structure  study  studying  stylized-facts  success  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  synchrony  tactics  tails  taxes  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  temperance  the-bones  the-classics  the-devil  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-south  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theos  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  time-preference  time-series  time  tools  top-n  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  transportation  trends  tribalism  trivia  trump  trust  truth  turchin  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  venture  video  virginia-dc  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  vitality  volo-avolo  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  welfare-state  westminster  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wire-guided  wisdom  within-without  woah  wonkish  workflow  world-war  world  x-not-about-y  yc  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  zooming  🎩  🐸  🖥 

Copy this bookmark: