marc_faber   5

Marc Faber's Biggest Mistake - WSJ.com
Sept. 20, 2013 | WSJ |By Jamie Lee.


Faber also lent an old buddy $50,000 and never saw it again. "When you want to collect, people don't return emails, they don't call back," he said. Lesson learned: He now only makes family-friend loans that are backed by assets. He has done a lot better buying and keeping a host of memorabilia. Faber, who lives in Thailand and races around on motorbikes, began building a stash of Chairman Mao posters, badges and other collectibles in the '70s when Mao was close to death.

Once worth just a few cents each, some of the 330,000 badges he bought are now worth at least $150 apiece. But Faber is in no hurry to sell. "I don't need the money," he says. "It's an unusual collection, and I have a very large office."
collectors  collectibles  high_net_worth  money_management  Marc_Faber  personal_finance  Thailand  Swiss  financiers  mistakes  investors 
december 2013 by jerryking
Economists Agree: We’re In a Depression
“The Prevailing Debate Among Economists and Historians is Whether the World Economy Faces the ‘Great’ Depression of the 1930s or the ‘Long’ Depression of the 1870s”
Reuters notes:

You know it’s grim when the prevailing debate among economists and historians is whether the world economy faces the “Great” depression of the 1930s or the “Long” depression of the 1870s.

 

***

 

Harvard professor and economic historian Niall Ferguson, a fan of the British government’s austerity drive and skeptic of further stimulus, reckons the world is facing a “slight depression” and favors comparison with the late 19th century rather than 1930s.

 

***

 

Long-term market bear Albert Edwards at Societe Generale has talked more apocalyptically for years of an economic “Ice Age” dominated by household deleveraging, low growth and deflation.

 But now “depression” is very much back in the mainstream lexicon as the small economic bounce from the deep global recession of 2008/09 fades rapidly after little more than two years and Europe’s bank and sovereign debt crisis intensifies.

Economist and doomsayer Nouriel Roubini now says there’s a “huge” risk of 1930s-style depression ….

 

HSBC chief economist Stephen King, who wrote earlier this year of a “new economic permafrost”, warned last week that the systemic financial threat of a euro zone collapse and breakup risked another “Great Depression”.

As I’ve noted for 3 years, we are in a depression, and – because the government has done all of the wrong things – we’re stuck in it.

It Could Be WORSE Than the Great Depression
Indeed, contrary to Reuters’ saying that economists are split on whether it’s a repeat of the Great Depression or a lesser depression, many economists say it could be worse than the Great Depression, including:

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (and see this and this)

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker

Economics scholar and former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin

The head of the Bank of England Mervyn King

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz

Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman

Former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead

Economics professors Barry Eichengreen and and Kevin H. O’Rourke (updated here)

Investment advisor, risk expert and “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Well-known PhD economist Marc Faber

Morgan Stanley’s UK equity strategist Graham Secker

Former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae Edward J. Pinto

Billionaire investor George Soros

Senior British minister Ed Balls

Bad Government Policy Has Us Stuck
We are stuck in a depression because the government has done all of the wrong things, and has failed to address the core problems.

For example:

An economics professor says we’ll have “a never-ending depression unless we repudiate the debt, which never should have been extended in the first place”

Fraud was one of the main causes of the Depression, but nothing has been done to rein in fraud today. Indeed, the only action the government is taking is to help cover up fraud

All leading independent economists have said that the economy cannot recover until the big, insolvent banks are broken up, but the government has just helped them to get bigger

Excessive leverage helped cause the Great Depression and the current crisis, but the government has encouraged more leverage

The Federal Reserve caused the Great Depression and the current crisis, and has done nothing but help the fatcats at the expense of the little guy. And yet the government has given the Fed more power than ever.

The government is doing everything else wrong. See this and this

This isn’t an issue of left versus right … it’s corruption and bad policies which help the top .1% but are causing a depression for the vast majority of the American people.
Alan_Greenspan  Albert_Edwards  Bank_of_England  Ben_Bernanke  Ben_Bernanke  Corruption  Fannie_Mae  Federal_Reserve  George_Soros  Goldman_Sachs  Great_Depression  Joseph_Stiglitz  Krugman  Marc_Faber  Mervyn_King  Niall_Ferguson  Nouriel  Nouriel_Roubini  Paul_Krugman  Paul_Volcker  Recession  Reuters  Sovereign_Debt  United_Kingdom  from google
october 2011 by takshimada
Marc Faber Explains How Even The "Greatest Bear On Earth" Gets It Wrong
Marc Faber was on Bloomberg TV dispensing his traditional sarcastic and sardonic wit in copious quantities. Among the traditional topics touched upon are stocks and specifically trading ranges, "I think a lot of people will say the markets formed a double low and we have some technical indicators that are going to turn positive, so we could rally around 1,250, but as I said before, for me, we reached a high on May 2, 2011. 1,370 on the S&P--that we will not go through", on Operation Twist part 1 (already announced) and part 2 (coming): "To some extent we are in midst of QE3 already, because by announcing the Fed will keep zero interest rates until the middle of 2013, they basically encourage financial institutions to borrow short-term and to buy 10-year Treasuries" on a contrarian outlook on stocks: "I am the greatest bear on earth, but if you compare Treasury bond yields and equities, equities look reasonably attractive", on why Insider "buying" just as we have said repeatedly, is far too much ado about nothing: "Compared to all the selling in the last six months the buying is relatively muted" and lastly, like a gracious loser, Faber admits he was wrong and Rosenberg was right "David Rosenberg was right and I was wrong. The 30-Year has not made a new low.  The low in December 2008 was 2.53%.  Now we're around 3.4%"... although with a caveat: "Basically we have an artificial market." Alas, no strategic observations on what particular precious metal one's girlfriend would appreciate the most in the current gold-platinum parity environment.

 

Faber on whether this is the market rally he’s been expecting:

"We had rally from the low on the ninth of August at 1,101 on the S&P to almost 1,200.  Then we came right down again.  Basically we did not make new lows.  And now I think we can rally again for a while."

Faber on how long his view of the market is:

“I think a lot of people will say the markets formed a double low and we have some technical indicators that are going to turn positive, so we could rally around 1,250, but as I said before, for me, we reached a high on May 2, 2011. 1,370 on the S&P--that we will not go through. My view is you have a lot of people with strategies that are very bullish. They have a year-end target of around 1,400-1,450 on the S&P. Then you have the super bear. I think both camps will be disappointed."

On why the markets won’t come back down again to the lows that were hit in 2009:

"On fundamentals one could make the case that we could go lower to around March 2009 lows at 666 on the S&P. But I think we have to be realistic that if the market dropped here another 10% or 15%, there would be for sure another quantitative easing move and other measures taken to support asset prices."

On what we’ll hear from Bernanke on Friday and whether there will be a selloff of Treasures after that:

"I think what [Bernanke] will say is that they are monitoring the situation, and they will take ‘appropriate measures’ when they are required.  To some extent we are in midst of QE3 already, because by announcing the Fed will keep zero interest rates until the middle of 2013, they basically encourage financial institutions to borrow short-term and to buy 10-year Treasuries."

On how uncertainty on a global level is affecting the markets:

"What I see extremely well is the stock market has traced out a major high between November of last year and June of this year and then fell sharply with very strong momentum and conviction very rapidly by close to 20%.  I think that is a very important signal that we should not overlook.  I think new highs are practically out of the question for the next six months to one year.  We will likely move lower, but as I said, I do not think we will have a complete collapse."

On why he’s not more bearish:

"I agree with you. I am the greatest bear on earth, but if you compare Treasury bond yields and equities, equities look reasonably attractive. I think we will have zero and below zero interest rates for the next 10 years. In other words, inflation adjusted to keep money in cash.  Finally, the mood is so negative right now as a contrarian, you do not take a huge short position when people are as bearish as they are right now and when insider buying has picked up as much. I am as bearish as the greatest bear is.  It is just that I do not believe stocks will implode."

On insider buying:

"The insider buying has picked up, but there is still a lot of insider selling.  Compared to all the selling in the last six months the buying is relatively muted. The insiders in general are a group of people against whom I would not bet against necessarily.  All I am saying is I am very bearish.  I think we will have inflation.  I think the Treasury market is a disaster waiting to happen.  I think the economy will slow down. They’re going to print money and we will go to war at some stage somewhere.  So, you are probably better off in equities than in bonds. My favorite investment remains gold.  As it happens the gold price is coming down, and I hope it will drop $100 or $200.  Not necessarily a prediction.  I think we will go down in a correction because there has been too much enthusiasm recently."

Faber commenting on Gary Schilling's bet against copper:

"I have known Gary Schilling since 1970 when we worked together. He has been a frequent bear about commodities and about copper. I happen to think copper is likely to come down, but I would not bet too heavily on it, because it takes a long time to bring on additional copper mines.  Unless the Chinese economy collapses, the demand for copper will stay relatively high.  If the Chinese economy collapses and Jim Chanos is right, then you want to be short not only copper, but short everything."

Faber where the 10-Year will go:

"I would like to remind you that the 10-year has made a new low. [Gluskin Sheff economist] David Rosenberg was right and I was wrong. The 30-Year has not made a new low.  The low in December 2008 was 2.53%.  Now we're around 3.4%.  Basically we have an artificial market.  The Fed has said we guarantee next to zero interest rates for the next two years. Banks and financial institutions are pouring into the 10-year because of the low rates at the present time. "
Ben_Bernanke  Bond  Copper  David_Rosenberg  Gluskin_Sheff  Insider_Selling  Jim_Chanos  Marc_Faber  Quantitative_Easing  Rosenberg  Technical_Indicators  from google
august 2011 by mshum
Bloomberg 20100503 - China May `Crash' in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says
Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst. Faber joins hedge fund manager Jim Chanos and Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a crash in China. China is “on a treadmill to hell” because it’s hooked on property development for driving growth, Chanos said in an interview last month. As much as 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product relies on construction, he said. Rogoff said in February a debt-fueled bubble in China may trigger a regional recession within a decade. Citigroup Inc. warned in March that in a “worst case scenario,” the non-performing loans of local-government investment vehicles, used to channel money to stimulus projects, could swell to 2.4 trillion yuan by 2011. Housing prices nationwide may fall as much as 20% in the second half of the year on government measures to curb speculation, BNP Paribas said April 23.
economy  China  bubble  Marc_Faber  James_S_Chanos  Kenneth_Rogoff  crash 
may 2010 by mjaniec
RzP 20100121 - Faber i Dumas: Euro upadnie
Przybywa opinii mówiących o nadchodzącym upadku unijnej waluty. Zadłużenie państw członkowskich rośnie, a wraz z nim koszty jego obsługi. Grecja może być niczym innym, jak tylko pierwszą kostką domina. Portugalia, Irlandia, Włochy, Grecja i Hiszpania - to zdaniem Marca Fabera, państwa, które już wkrótce będą miały bardzo poważne kłopoty ze spłacaniem odsetek swojego zadłużenia. O tym, że doświadczające dziś problemów państwa członkowskie Unii doprowadzą do upadku strefy euro przekonany jest Charles Dumas, główny ekonomista cenionej londyńskiej agencji Lombard Street Research. Uważa on, że poszczególne gospodarki unijne nie są do siebie wystarczająco podobne, aby mogły prowadzić jednakową politykę pieniężną. Nie widzi sensu w łączeniu Grecji, Hiszpanii, czy Portugalii, a nawet Włoch, z silnymi gospodarkami Niemiec, Francji, czy Belgii.
economy  EU  forex  Marc_Faber  Charles_Dumas 
january 2010 by mjaniec

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