long-term   545

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What You Need to Know to Pick an IPO
April 7, 2019 | WSJ | By Andy Kessler.
Dig up dirt on the competition and board members, and buy to hold long-term.......How do you know which IPOs to buy? No, not to trade—you’d never get it right. Lyft priced at $72, traded at $85 on its first day, then closed at $78, only to fall to $67 on its second day. It’s now $74. I’m talking about buying and holding for a few years. Yes I know, how quaint.

The trick is to read the prospectus. What are you, crazy? That’s a couple hundred pages. Well, not the whole thing. But remember, where the stock trades on its first day is noise....... So understanding long-term prospects are critical. Here are a few shortcuts.

(1) First, glance at the underwriters along the bottom of the cover. On the top line are the banks putting their reputation on the line. If the one on the far left is Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan , you’re probably OK.
(2) open the management section and study the directors. Forget the venture capitalists or strategic partners with board seats—they have their own agendas. Non-employee directors are the ones who are supposed to be representing you, the public investor. And their value depends on their experience.
(3) OK, now figure out what the company does. You can watch the roadshow video, look at prospectus pictures, and skim the offering’s Business section. Now ignore most of that. Underwriters are often terrible at positioning companies to the market.......when positioning companies, only three things matter: a monster market; an unfair competitive advantage like patents, algorithms or a network effect; and a business model to leverage that advantage. Look for those. If you can’t find them, pass. Commodities crumble........read the Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Companies are forced to give detailed descriptions of each of their sectors and products or services. Then flip back and forth to the Financials, looking at the items on the income statement and matching them up with the operations being discussed. Figure out what the company might look like in five years. And use my “10x” rule: Lyft is worth $25 billion—can they make $2.5 billion after-tax someday? Finally there’s the Risk section, which is mostly boilerplate but can contain good dirt on competition.
(4) Put the prospectus away and save it as a souvenir. Try to figure out the real story of the company. Do some digging.
(5) My final advice: Never, ever put in a market order for shares on the first day of an IPO.
10x  advice  algorithms  Andy_Kessler  boards_&_directors_&_governance  business_models  competitive_advantage  deception  due_diligence  howto  IPOs  large_markets  long-term  Lyft  network_effects  noise  patents  positioning  prospectuses  risks  stock_picking  think_threes  Uber  underwriting  unfair_advantages 
13 days ago by jerryking
Andrew Marshall, Pentagon’s Threat Expert, Dies at 97 - The New York Times
By Julian E. Barnes
March 26, 2019

Andrew Marshall, a Pentagon strategist who helped shape U.S. military thinking on the Soviet Union, China and other global competitors for more than four decades, has died. He was 97. Mr. Marshall, as director of the Office of Net Assessment, was the secretive futurist of the Pentagon, a long-range thinker who prodded and inspired secretaries of defense and high-level policymakers.......Marshall was revered in the DoD as a mysterious Yoda-like figure who embodied an exceptionally long institutional memory.......... Marshall's view of China as a potential strategic adversary, an idea now at the heart of national defense strategy....Through his many hires and Pentagon grants..... Mr. Marshall trained a coterie of experts and strategists in Washington and beyond.....he cultivated thinking that looked beyond the nation’s immediate problems and sought to press military leaders to approach long-term challenges differently......His gift was the framing of the question, the discovery of the critical question..... always picking the least studied and most strategically significant subjects....Marshall’s career as a strategic thinker began in 1949 at the RAND Corporation, where his theory of competitive strategies took root. Borrowing from business school theories of how corporations compete against each other, Mr. Marshall argued that nations are also in strategic competition with one another. “His favorite example was if you can pit your strengths against someone else’s weakness and get them to respond in a way that makes them weaker and weaker, you can put them out of business without ever fighting,”....He had early insight into the economic troubles the Soviet Union was having, and helped develop strategies to exacerbate those problems and help bring about the demise of the Soviet Union....In 2009, Robert M. Gates, the defense secretary at the time, asked Mr. Marshall to write a classified strategy on China with Gen. Jim Mattis, the future defense secretary.
assessments_&_evaluations  China  China_rising  economists  éminence_grise  future  futurists  inspiration  institutional_memory  long-range  long-term  obituaries  Pentagon  policymakers  problem_framing  RAND  rising_powers  Robert_Gates  SecDef  security_&_intelligence  strategic_thinking  threats  trailblazers  uChicago 
25 days ago by jerryking
The U.S. Is Ceding the Pacific to China
March 3, 2019 | WSJ | By Mark Helprin.

While Washington’s focus is elsewhere, Beijing plays the long game—that means preparing for war.

The only effective leverage on China, and by extension North Korea—which otherwise will retain nuclear weapons whether overtly or covertly but certainly—is to alter the correlation of military forces in the Western Pacific, and indeed in the world, so that it no longer moves rapidly and inevitably in China’s favor, which is what China cares about, the essence of its policy, its central proposition. Though with some effort the U.S. is perfectly capable of embarking upon this strategy, it has not. It seems we lack the awareness, political will, intelligence, probity, discipline, leadership, and habit of mind to do so.
America_in_Decline?  Asia_Pacific  balance_of_power  China  China_rising  geopolitics  hard_power  long-term  long-range  maritime  Mark_Helprin  North_Korea  nuclear  PACOM  political_geography  rivalries  South_China_Sea  strategic_geography  submarines  trade_wars  U.S.  U.S._Navy  USMC  U.S.-China_relations  Xi_Jinping  zero-sum_games 
6 weeks ago by jerryking
Is the NHS's long-term plan workable? - BBC News
Bleak picture
Budgets for public health (including prevention) and training of nurses, doctors and other staff have not yet been set out and, if less generous than the NHS settlement, they could affect the ability of the service to deliver the long-term plan, in the view of the report authors.

And what of the short term? The watchdog paints a bleak picture.

The financial health of some trusts, it says, is getting worse.
NHS  social  care  Council  elderly  adult  long-term  plan  Theresa  May  Conservative  Austerity  chronic  sickcare  sick  population  ageing  demographics  Cancer  Obesity  CVD  diabetes  rationing  mental  health  staff  crisis  hiring  locum  CAMHS  prevention  public  Privatisation 
12 weeks ago by asterisk2a
Are Andrew Lansley's NHS reforms being binned? - BBC News
But Nigel Edwards, the influential chief executive of the Nuffield Trust think tank, believes a "significant unpicking" of Mr Lansley's reforms are on the cards and in time they will be judged as "one of the most major public policy failures" of all time.

If that is the case, it begs the question: why did the government go to all the trouble of pushing ahead with them in the first place?
NHS  Privatisation  long-term  plan  sickcare  ageing  population  Conservative  Party  premature  chronic  sick  prevention  public  health  CVD  dementia  Cancer  Austerity  social  care  Council  elderly  CCG  GP 
january 2019 by asterisk2a
At the heart of this NHS cash boost lies a dishonesty: tax | Rafael Behr | Opinion | The Guardian
Theresa May’s boast that extra funding won’t involve tax rises should set alarm bells ringing [...] Stevens knows that £20.5bn is a lot, yet not enough. It repairs some of the damage inflicted by austerity – a problem denied for years by ministers who insisted the NHS budget was ring-fenced. That was true in a narrow technical sense. But rising costs and a displaced burden from deep cuts elsewhere imposed an unbearable strain on hospitals and GPs. [...] Phased in over five years, the £20.5bn uplift temporarily restores health spending to something like its pre-austerity trajectory. But it is unclear where the next £20.5bn comes from. Or the £20.5bn after that. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that budgets should rise by 3.3% over 15 years to keep services at their current level. If the ambition is to make them better, the annual increase would be more like 5%, taking health spending to around 10% of national income. That is the level maintained by countries like the Netherlands and Sweden. May has no plan to keep Britain in that league. [...] The dishonest part is making it sound like a self-sustaining process when it is a one-off event.
NHS  Theresa  May  Conservative  Austerity  sickcare  demand  long-term  plan  demographic  bubble  chronic  sick  population  staff  staffing  crisis  Cancer  diabetes  CVD  obesity  ageing  premature 
january 2019 by asterisk2a
NHS long-term plan: Focus on prevention 'could save 500,000 lives' - BBC News
MISTAKE. PREVENTION SHOULD BE ON TOP OF THE BUDGET, NOT TAKEN AWAY FROM THE BUDGET. That after the conservatives cut prevention (Public Health)
The government and NHS England are publishing the long-waited 10-year plan for healthcare later today. From what we know so far, it aims to reduce reliance on hospitals, giving them a smaller cut of the overall budget, and puts a greater emphasis on preventing ill health. Ahead of the publication, NHS England confirmed that a third of the extra £20bn a year the NHS will receive by 2023 will be spent on GPs, community care and mental health. Its chief executive, Simon Stevens, called the plan a "practical, costed and phased route map". However, senior doctors have complained that hospitals are facing a "near-on impossible" task over the next few years.
__ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46783621 - Will NHS long-term plan deliver the goods?
++ https://www.longtermplan.nhs.uk/publication/nhs-long-term-plan/
Document demands repeal of 2012 legislation on automatic tendering of care contracts https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/07/nhs-chiefs-tell-theresa-may-time-to-curb-privatisation-automatic-tendering-care-contract
&! NHS considers scrapping four-hour A&E waiting time targets Hospitals are unlikely to recover previous performance levels, health leaders believe https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/07/nhs-waiting-time-targets-minor-ailments
&! Despite extra funding, central idea of plan for NHS England is to do more with less https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/07/what-is-the-nhs-long-term-plan-and-can-it-achieve-its-aims
& Key commitments at a glance, from reducing stillbirths to diagnosing cancers earlier
& NHS long-term plan: Are there enough staff to make it happen?
NHS  prevention  sickcare  demand  Austerity  ageing  premature  population  obesity  CVD  cancer  diabetes  Conservative  Theresa  May  staff  crisis  public  health  Brexit  long-term  plan 
january 2019 by asterisk2a
Tristan Walker on the Roman Empire and Selling a Start-Up to Procter & Gamble - The New York Times
By David Gelles
Dec. 12, 2018

Tristan Walker founded Walker & Company, a maker of health and beauty products for people of color, in 2013. On Wednesday, the company was acquired by Procter & Gamble for an undisclosed sum. The deal represents a successful exit for Mr. Walker and his investors. It also signals an effort by Procter & Gamble, the maker of Gillette, to reach new markets with its shaving products. But while many start-up founders make a hasty exit after getting acquired, Mr. Walker is planning to stay on and grow Bevel, his men’s shaving brand, and Form, his women’s hair care brand. “We’re a team of 15 with very grandiose ambitions,” he said of Walker & Company, which is based in Palo Alto, Calif., but will move to Atlanta as part of the deal. “We want this company and its purpose to still be around 150 years from now.”

What’s that book you’ve got there?

It’s “Parallel Lives” by Plutarch. I’ve really been getting into Greek and Roman mythology. I’m reading something right now about the history of Rome during the 53 years when they really came into power, and this idea of the Roman state growing, the Greek state growing, and the differences therein fascinate me beyond belief. I’ve just been devouring it for the past few weeks now.

Walker attended the Hotchkiss School in Lakeville, Conn. And from there, he got to see how the other half lived. It completely changed his life. He got to see what success could look like. He got to see what wealth was. And it completely changed his worldview.

How so?

I would walk down the halls and see last names like Ford, go to some classes and realize they’re Rockefellers. These are names that were in my imagination. It taught me the importance of name and what that can mean, not only for you but your progeny. When I started at Hotchkiss, I didn’t know what a verb was. So I spent all of my time in the library studying. I spent all of my time thinking about what I wanted to be when I grew up.

What are your priorities as you keep building the company?

I’m dedicating my life to the demographic shift happening in this country. Not only for Silicon Valley. Not only for business. But for this country’s competitiveness. It’s changing. And folks need to respect that and they need to celebrate it.
African-Americans  Bevel  biographies  books  demographic_changes  entrepreneur  entrepreneurship  exits  Form  insights  long-term  P&G  Romans  Silicon_Valley  start_ups  Tristan_Walker  wealth_creation  black-owned  brands  consumer_goods  personal_care_products  personal_grooming  founders 
december 2018 by jerryking
Opinion | Playing the Long Game for the Supreme Court - The New York Times
By Linda Greenhouse
Contributing Opinion Writer

Oct. 25, 2018

Consider two news items from last week that serve to illuminate the current reality. One was the revelation that the Heritage Foundation, a deeply conservative policy shop in Washington that has partnered with the Federalist Society in providing President Trump with judicial nominees, was running a secretive training academy for ideologically vetted judicial law clerks. The foundation suspended the program after the report.

The other was the confirmation hearing the Republicans of the Senate Judiciary Committee held (the Democratic senators boycotted it) for Allison Jones Rushing, the president’s nominee for a vacancy on the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit. Ms. Rushing’s conservative credentials are impeccable, including ties to the Alliance Defending Freedom, a religious-right litigating organization. Ms. Rushing clerked for Justice Clarence Thomas and for Neil Gorsuch when he was a federal appeals court judge; those clerkships evidently accounted for the “incredible wealth of judicial experience” praised by one of her Judiciary Committee supporters, Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina. She graduated from law school 11 years ago. She is 36 years old.

How do those two developments relate to each other and to the legacy of the Bork battle? Following Judge Bork’s defeat, conservatives didn’t waste time licking their wounds. They got busy building the infrastructure necessary to accomplish their thwarted goals. The Federalist Society had been founded five years earlier by a handful of law students; Robert Bork and Antonin Scalia, then a law professor, both spoke at its first symposium.

The organization offered the perfect vehicle for cultivating a new generation of young conservative lawyers to enter the pipeline, serving as law clerks by the side of growing numbers of conservative judges and — like Justice Gorsuch and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, both former Supreme Court law clerks — becoming judges themselves.
conservatism  GOP  law  political_infrastructure  Robert_Bork  U.S._Supreme_Court  talent_pipelines  long-term 
october 2018 by jerryking

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