kumbaya-kult   45

Who We Are | West Hunter
I’m going to review David Reich’s new book, Who We Are and How We Got Here. Extensively: in a sense I’ve already been doing this for a long time. Probably there will be a podcast. The GoFundMe link is here. You can also send money via Paypal (Use the donate button), or bitcoins to 1Jv4cu1wETM5Xs9unjKbDbCrRF2mrjWXr5. In-kind donations, such as orichalcum or mithril, are always appreciated.

This is the book about the application of ancient DNA to prehistory and history.

height difference between northern and southern europeans: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/29/who-we-are-1/
mixing, genocide of males, etc.: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/29/who-we-are-2-purity-of-essence/
rapid change in polygenic traits (appearance by Kevin Mitchell and funny jab at Brad Delong ("regmonkey")): https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/rapid-change-in-polygenic-traits/
schiz, bipolar, and IQ: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/rapid-change-in-polygenic-traits/#comment-105605
Dan Graur being dumb: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/02/the-usual-suspects/
prediction of neanderthal mixture and why: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/03/who-we-are-3-neanderthals/
New Guineans tried to use Denisovan admixture to avoid UN sanctions (by "not being human"): https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/04/who-we-are-4-denisovans/
also some commentary on decline of Out-of-Africa, including:
"Homo Naledi, a small-brained homonin identified from recently discovered fossils in South Africa, appears to have hung around way later that you’d expect (up to 200,000 years ago, maybe later) than would be the case if modern humans had occupied that area back then. To be blunt, we would have eaten them."

Live Not By Lies: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/08/live-not-by-lies/
Next he slams people that suspect that upcoming genetic genetic analysis will, in most cases, confirm traditional stereotypes about race – the way the world actually looks.

The people Reich dumps on are saying perfectly reasonable things. He criticizes Henry Harpending for saying that he’d never seen an African with a hobby. Of course, Henry had actually spent time in Africa, and that’s what he’d seen. The implication is that people in Malthusian farming societies – which Africa was not – were selected to want to work, even where there was no immediate necessity to do so. Thus hobbies, something like a gerbil running in an exercise wheel.

He criticized Nicholas Wade, for saying that different races have different dispositions. Wade’s book wasn’t very good, but of course personality varies by race: Darwin certainly thought so. You can see differences at birth. Cover a baby’s nose with a cloth: Chinese and Navajo babies quietly breathe through their mouth, European and African babies fuss and fight.

Then he attacks Watson, for asking when Reich was going to look at Jewish genetics – the kind that has led to greater-than-average intelligence. Watson was undoubtedly trying to get a rise out of Reich, but it’s a perfectly reasonable question. Ashkenazi Jews are smarter than the average bear and everybody knows it. Selection is the only possible explanation, and the conditions in the Middle ages – white-collar job specialization and a high degree of endogamy, were just what the doctor ordered.

Watson’s a prick, but he’s a great prick, and what he said was correct. Henry was a prince among men, and Nick Wade is a decent guy as well. Reich is totally out of line here: he’s being a dick.

Now Reich may be trying to burnish his anti-racist credentials, which surely need some renewal after having pointing out that race as colloquially used is pretty reasonable, there’s no reason pops can’t be different, people that said otherwise ( like Lewontin, Gould, Montagu, etc. ) were lying, Aryans conquered Europe and India, while we’re tied to the train tracks with scary genetic results coming straight at us. I don’t care: he’s being a weasel, slandering the dead and abusing the obnoxious old genius who laid the foundations of his field. Reich will also get old someday: perhaps he too will someday lose track of all the nonsense he’s supposed to say, or just stop caring. Maybe he already has… I’m pretty sure that Reich does not like lying – which is why he wrote this section of the book (not at all logically necessary for his exposition of the ancient DNA work) but the required complex juggling of lies and truth required to get past the demented gatekeepers of our society may not be his forte. It has been said that if it was discovered that someone in the business was secretly an android, David Reich would be the prime suspect. No Talleyrand he.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/12/who-we-are-6-the-americas/
The population that accounts for the vast majority of Native American ancestry, which we will call Amerinds, came into existence somewhere in northern Asia. It was formed from a mix of Ancient North Eurasians and a population related to the Han Chinese – about 40% ANE and 60% proto-Chinese. Is looks as if most of the paternal ancestry was from the ANE, while almost all of the maternal ancestry was from the proto-Han. [Aryan-Transpacific ?!?] This formation story – ANE boys, East-end girls – is similar to the formation story for the Indo-Europeans.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/who-we-are-7-africa/
In some ways, on some questions, learning more from genetics has left us less certain. At this point we really don’t know where anatomically humans originated. Greater genetic variety in sub-Saharan African has been traditionally considered a sign that AMH originated there, but it possible that we originated elsewhere, perhaps in North Africa or the Middle East, and gained extra genetic variation when we moved into sub-Saharan Africa and mixed with various archaic groups that already existed. One consideration is that finding recent archaic admixture in a population may well be a sign that modern humans didn’t arise in that region ( like language substrates) – which makes South Africa and West Africa look less likely. The long-continued existence of homo naledi in South Africa suggests that modern humans may not have been there for all that long – if we had co-existed with homo naledi, they probably wouldn’t lasted long. The oldest known skull that is (probably) AMh was recently found in Morocco, while modern humans remains, already known from about 100,000 years ago in Israel, have recently been found in northern Saudi Arabia.

While work by Nick Patterson suggests that modern humans were formed by a fusion between two long-isolated populations, a bit less than half a million years ago.

So: genomics had made recent history Africa pretty clear. Bantu agriculuralists expanded and replaced hunter-gatherers, farmers and herders from the Middle East settled North Africa, Egypt and northeaat Africa, while Nilotic herdsmen expanded south from the Sudan. There are traces of earlier patterns and peoples, but today, only traces. As for questions back further in time, such as the origins of modern humans – we thought we knew, and now we know we don’t. But that’s progress.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/reichs-journey/
David Reich’s professional path must have shaped his perspective on the social sciences. Look at the record. He starts his professional career examining the role of genetics in the elevated prostate cancer risk seen in African-American men. Various social-science fruitcakes oppose him even looking at the question of ancestry ( African vs European). But they were wrong: certain African-origin alleles explain the increased risk. Anthropologists (and human geneticists) were sure (based on nothing) that modern humans hadn’t interbred with Neanderthals – but of course that happened. Anthropologists and archaeologists knew that Gustaf Kossina couldn’t have been right when he said that widespread material culture corresponded to widespread ethnic groups, and that migration was the primary explanation for changes in the archaeological record – but he was right. They knew that the Indo-European languages just couldn’t have been imposed by fire and sword – but Reich’s work proved them wrong. Lots of people – the usual suspects plus Hindu nationalists – were sure that the AIT ( Aryan Invasion Theory) was wrong, but it looks pretty good today.

Some sociologists believed that caste in India was somehow imposed or significantly intensified by the British – but it turns out that most jatis have been almost perfectly endogamous for two thousand years or more…

It may be that Reich doesn’t take these guys too seriously anymore. Why should he?

varnas, jatis, aryan invastion theory: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/22/who-we-are-8-india/

europe and EEF+WHG+ANE: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/05/01/who-we-are-9-europe/

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/book-review-david-reich-human-genes-reveal-history/
The massive mixture events that occurred in the recent past to give rise to Europeans and South Asians, to name just two groups, were likely “male mediated.” That’s another way of saying that men on the move took local women as brides or concubines. In the New World there are many examples of this, whether it be among African Americans, where most European ancestry seems to come through men, or in Latin America, where conquistadores famously took local women as paramours. Both of these examples are disquieting, and hint at the deep structural roots of patriarchal inequality and social subjugation that form the backdrop for the emergence of many modern peoples.
west-hunter  scitariat  books  review  sapiens  anthropology  genetics  genomics  history  antiquity  iron-age  world  europe  gavisti  aDNA  multi  politics  culture-war  kumbaya-kult  social-science  academia  truth  westminster  environmental-effects  embodied  pop-diff  nordic  mediterranean  the-great-west-whale  germanic  the-classics  shift  gene-flow  homo-hetero  conquest-empire  morality  diversity  aphorism  migration  migrant-crisis  EU  africa  MENA  gender  selection  speed  time  population-genetics  error  concrete  econotariat  economics  regression  troll  lol  twitter  social  media  street-fighting  methodology  robust  disease  psychiatry  iq  correlation  usa  obesity  dysgenics  education  track-record  people  counterexample  reason  thinking  fisher  giants  old-anglo  scifi-fantasy  higher-ed  being-right  stories  reflection  critique  multiplicative  iteration-recursion  archaics  asia  developing-world  civil-liberty  anglo  oceans  food  death  horror  archaeology  gnxp  news  org:mag  right-wing  age-of-discovery  latin-america  ea 
march 2018 by nhaliday
And your little dog, too! | West Hunter
It sure looks as if we’re talking near-complete replacement – which means that the historical process involved does not look much like a peaceful, diffusion-style range expansion.  Perhaps more like the Death Song of Ragnar Lodbrok, which abounds in phrases like this: “Where the swords were whining while they sundered helmets”

Interestingly, there is a very similar  pattern in canine mtDNA.  Today Europeans dogs fall into four haplotypes: A (70%), B(16%), C (6%), and D(8%).  But back in the day, it seems that the overwhelming majority of dogs (88%)  were type C,  12% were in group A, while B and D have not been detected at all.

The ancestors of today’s Europeans didn’t fool around.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  ideas  speculation  history  antiquity  europe  sapiens  gavisti  farmers-and-foragers  genetics  genomics  gene-flow  migration  conquest-empire  peace-violence  kumbaya-kult  nature  nihil  death  archaeology  nietzschean  traces 
august 2017 by nhaliday
The “Hearts and Minds” Fallacy: Violence, Coercion, and Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare | International Security | MIT Press Journals
The U.S. prescription for success has had two main elements: to support liberalizing, democratizing reforms to reduce popular grievances; and to pursue a military strategy that carefully targets insurgents while avoiding harming civilians. An analysis of contemporaneous documents and interviews with participants in three cases held up as models of the governance approach—Malaya, Dhofar, and El Salvador—shows that counterinsurgency success is the result of a violent process of state building in which elites contest for power, popular interests matter little, and the government benefits from uses of force against civilians.

https://twitter.com/foxyforecaster/status/893049155337244672
https://archive.is/zhOXD
this is why liberal states mostly fail in counterinsurgency wars

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-why-are-we-still-in-afghanistan/

contrary study:
Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention: Evidence from Discontinuities in Military Strategies: https://academic.oup.com/qje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/qje/qjx037/4110419
This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It identifies the effects of bombing by exploiting rounding thresholds in an algorithm used to target air strikes. Bombing increased the military and political activities of the communist insurgency, weakened local governance, and reduced noncommunist civic engagement. The study also exploits a spatial discontinuity across neighboring military regions that pursued different counterinsurgency strategies. A strategy emphasizing overwhelming firepower plausibly increased insurgent attacks and worsened attitudes toward the U.S. and South Vietnamese government, relative to a more hearts-and-minds-oriented approach. JEL Codes: F35, F51, F52

anecdote:
Military Adventurer Raymond Westerling On How To Defeat An Insurgency: http://www.socialmatter.net/2018/03/12/military-adventurer-raymond-westerling-on-how-to-defeat-an-insurgency/
study  war  meta:war  military  defense  terrorism  MENA  strategy  tactics  cynicism-idealism  civil-liberty  kumbaya-kult  foreign-policy  realpolitik  usa  the-great-west-whale  occident  democracy  antidemos  institutions  leviathan  government  elite  realness  multi  twitter  social  commentary  stylized-facts  evidence-based  objektbuch  attaq  chart  contrarianism  scitariat  authoritarianism  nl-and-so-can-you  westminster  iraq-syria  polisci  🎩  conquest-empire  news  org:lite  power  backup  martial  nietzschean  pdf  piracy  britain  asia  developing-world  track-record  expansionism  peace-violence  interests  china  race  putnam-like  anglosphere  latin-america  volo-avolo  cold-war  endogenous-exogenous  shift  natural-experiment  rounding  gnon  org:popup  europe  germanic  japan  history  mostly-modern  world-war  examples  death  nihil  dominant-minority  tribalism  ethnocentrism  us-them  letters 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Information Processing: The Pivot and American Statecraft in Asia
Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, critiques the Obama administration's so-called pivot to Asia. Australian strategists are a good source of analysis on this issue because they are caught in the middle and have to think realistically about the situation.

Whenever I see a book or article on this topic I quickly search for terms like DF-21, ASBM, ASCM, cruise missiles, satellite imaging, submarines, etc. The discussion cannot be serious or deep without an understanding of current military and technological capabilities of both sides. (See High V, Low M.)

...

This Aug 2016 RAND report delves into some of the relevant issues (see Appendix A, p.75). But it is not clear whether the 2025 or 2015 scenarios explored will be more realistic over the next few years. A weakness of the report is that it assumes US forces will undertake large scale conventional attack on the Chinese mainland (referred to as Air Sea Battle by US planners) relatively early in the conflict, without fear of nuclear retaliation. A real decision maker could not confidently make that assumption, PRC "no first use" declaration notwithstanding.

See also Future Warfare in the Western Pacific (International Security, Summer 2016) for a detailed analysis of A2AD capability, potentially practiced by both sides. I disagree with the authors' claim that the effectiveness of A2AD in 2040 will be limited to horizon distances (they assume all satellites have been destroyed). The authors neglect the possibility of large numbers of stealthy drone radar platforms (or micro-satellites) which are hard to detect until they activate to provide targeting data to incoming missiles.

This article by Peter Lee gives a realistic summary of the situation, including the role of nuclear weapons. As a journalist, Lee is not under the same political restrictions as RAND or others funded by the US military / defense industry. The survivability of the surface fleet (=aircraft carriers) and the escalatory nature of what is known as Air Sea Battle (=ASB) are both highly sensitive topics.
hsu  scitariat  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  world  foreign-policy  realpolitik  geopolitics  anglo  info-foraging  track-record  statesmen  books  review  military  technology  arms  war  meta:war  oceans  journos-pundits  realness  kumbaya-kult  strategy  tactics  thucydides  great-powers  expansionism  sky  dirty-hands 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Majors | West Hunter
Sometimes we touch upon the question of what people know or don’t know. Probably this has something to do with what they study, assuming that they remember any of what they are exposed to in school.

So what do college students major in?

I have national figures, as well as recent numbers for Harvard.

College as signaling – exceptin’ always Steam: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/08/27/college-as-signaling-exceptin-always-steam/
Some economists [like Bryan Caplan] are now arguing that the benefits of college are almost entirely signaling – showing that you can learn and how much crap you can swallow – rather than conferring knowledge that makes you better at doing something people would pay you for. Ideally, something genuinely useful.

This cannot be entirely true, at least if you consider education in the broadest sense. Once upon a time nobody knew how to build a decent steam engine. After James Watt developed one, other people learned about it at some point in their lives – maybe not in college, but somewhere. Acquiring that knowledge increased their human capital.

But it’s mostly true. If you look at college majors, it is easy to see most college instruction is not very useful. 21% business majors, 10% social sciences and history, 7% educational majors, 6% psych majors, 5% in visual and performing arts, 5% in “communication, journalism, and related programs”, 3% English and literature – well over half at first cut. When I looked at a more detailed breakdown, I had a hard time arguing that the useful fraction was as high as 20%. Even when someone studies a subject that is potentially useful, there’s a significant probability that they’ll end up doing something entirely different. And then there’s forgetting – I don’t think most people retain much of what they studied in school, unless they use it in their work or happen to find a subject fascinating.

Majors, II: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/07/majors-ii/
I talked about what people major in earlier, but this is useful, I think. I’m revving up for some posts about education.

A question: I’d like to hear some thoughts about which degrees are worthless. Define you terms. For example< I can imagine degrees that teach you to do things that are useful but somehow out of fashion, useless but highly in demand, useful to you but worse than useless to society as a whole, etc.
west-hunter  scitariat  trends  higher-ed  harvard  education  institutions  data  distribution  knowledge  kumbaya-kult  elite  multi  signaling  realness  cracker-econ  human-capital  counter-revolution  phalanges  retention  impact  quality 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Book Review: Singer on Marx | Slate Star Codex
But in fact Marx was philosophically opposed, as a matter of principle, to any planning about the structure of communist governments or economies. He would come out and say “It is irresponsible to talk about how communist governments and economies will work.” He believed it was a scientific law, analogous to the laws of physics, that once capitalism was removed, a perfect communist government would form of its own accord. There might be some very light planning, a couple of discussions, but these would just be epiphenomena of the governing historical laws working themselves out. Just as, a dam having been removed, a river will eventually reach the sea somehow, so capitalism having been removed society will eventually reach a perfect state of freedom and cooperation.

...

Conservatives always complain that liberals “deny human nature”, and I had always thought that complaint was unfair. Like sure, liberals say that you can make people less racist, and one could counterargue that a tendency toward racism is inborn, but it sure seems like you can make that tendency more or less strongly expressed and that this is important. This is part of the view I argue in Nature Is Not A Slate, It’s A Series Of Levers.

But here I have to give conservatives their due. As far as I can tell, Marx literally, so strongly as to be unstrawmannable, believed there was no such thing as human nature and everything was completely malleable.

Feuerbach resolves the essence of religion into the essence of man. But the essence of man is no abstraction inherent in each single individual. In reality, it is the ensemble of the social relations.
ratty  yvain  ssc  books  review  summary  critique  big-peeps  philosophy  history  early-modern  europe  germanic  communism  roots  economics  left-wing  civilization  whiggish-hegelian  -_-  definite-planning  kumbaya-kult  biodet  class-warfare  polanyi-marx  peter-singer 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Information Processing: History repeats
Brad Delong, in his course on economic history, lists the following among the reasons for the decline of the British empire and its loss of industrial superiority to Germany and the US.

British deficiencies:
* low infrastructure investment
* poor educational system
* lags behind in primary education
* teaches its elite not science and engineering, but how to write Latin verse

Sound familiar? What is the ratio of Harvard students who have studied Shakespeare, Milton or (shudder) Derrida to the number who have thought deeply about the scientific method, or know what a photon is? Which knowledge is going to pay off for America in the long haul?

Most photon experts are imported from abroad these days. We're running a search in our department for a condensed matter experimentalist (working on things ranging from nanoscale magnets to biomembranes). The last three candidates we've interviewed are originally from (1) the former Soviet Union (postdoc at Cornell), (2) India (postdoc at Berkeley) and (3) China (postdoc at Caltech).

Of course, these Harvard kids may be making a smart decision - why fight it out in an efficiently globalized meritocracy (i.e. science), when there are more lucrative career paths available? Nevertheless, I think we would be better off if our future leaders had at least some passing familiarity with the science and technology that will shape our future.

The future of US scientific leadership: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/07/future-of-us-scientific-leadership.html
Does Globalization of the Scientific/Engineering Workforce Threaten US Economic Leadership?: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11457
Note Freeman's Proposition 2: Despite perennial concerns over shortages of scientific and engineering specialists, the job market in most S&E specialties is too weak to attract increasing numbers of US students. Nevertheless, US S&E pay rates are still high enough to attract talented foreigners. This competition further reduces the attractiveness of S&E careers to US students.

Foreign Peer Effects and STEM Major Choice: http://ftp.iza.org/dp10743.pdf
Results indicate that a 1 standard deviation increase in foreign peers reduces the likelihood native-born students graduate with STEM majors by 3 percentage points – equivalent to 3.7 native students displaced for 9 additional foreign students in an average course. STEM displacement is offset by an increased likelihood of choosing Social Science majors. However, the earnings prospects of displaced students are minimally affected as they appear to be choosing Social Science majors with equally high earning power. We demonstrate that comparative advantage and linguistic dissonance may operate as underlying mechanisms.

fall of Rome: https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/886075755364360192
But if the gradualness of this process misled the Romans there were other and equally potent reasons for their blindness. Most potent of all was the fact that they mistook entirely the very nature of civilization itself. All of them were making the same mistake. People who thought that Rome could swallow barbarism and absorb it into her life without diluting her own civilization; the people who ran about busily saying that the barbarians were not such bad fellows after all, finding good points in their regime with which to castigate the Romans and crying that except ye become as little barbarians ye shall not attain salvation; the people who did not observe in 476 that one half of the Respublica Romanorum had ceased to exist and nourished themselves on the fiction that the barbarian kings were exercising a power delegated from the Emperor. _All these people were deluded by the same error, the belief that Rome (the civilization of their age) was not a mere historical fact with a beginning and an end, but a condition of nature like the air they breathed and the earth they tread Ave Roma immortalis, most magnificent most disastrous of creeds!_

The fact is that the Romans were blinded to what was happening to them by the very perfection of the material culture which they had created. All around them was solidity and comfort, a material existence which was the very antithesis of barbarism. How could they foresee the day when the Norman chronicler would marvel over the broken hypocausts of Caerleon? How could they imagine that anything so solid might conceivably disappear? _Their roads grew better as their statesmanship grew worse and central heating triumphed as civilization fell._

But still more responsible for their unawareness was the educational system in which they were reared. Ausonius and Sidonius and their friends were highly educated men and Gaul was famous for its schools and universities. The education which these gave consisted in the study of grammar and rhetoric, which was necessary alike for the civil service and for polite society; and it would be difficult to imagine an education more entirely out of touch with contemporary life, or less suited to inculcate the qualities which might have enabled men to deal with it. The fatal study of rhetoric, its links with reality long since severed, concentrated the whole attention of men of intellect on form rather than on matter. _The things they learned in their schools had no relation to the things that were going on in the world outside and bred in them the fatal illusion that tomorrow would be as yesterday that everything was the same, whereas everything was different._
hsu  scitariat  commentary  rhetoric  prediction  trends  history  early-modern  mostly-modern  pre-ww2  britain  anglosphere  usa  europe  germanic  human-capital  education  higher-ed  science  kumbaya-kult  the-world-is-just-atoms  technology  rot  analogy  cycles  elite  definite-planning  culture  cultural-dynamics  conquest-empire  great-powers  civilization  infrastructure  capital  allodium  modernity  counter-revolution  thucydides  multi  twitter  social  gnon  gibbon  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  quotes  lived-experience  the-bones  realness  microfoundations  aristos  pdf  study  economics  migration  diversity  tech  career  intervention  natural-experiment  labor  org:ngo  white-paper  bounded-cognition  socs-and-mops  incentives  summary  innovation  china  asia  india  grad-school  uncertainty  meta:rhetoric  nascent-state  dirty-hands  zeitgeist  alt-inst  duty  long-short-run  leadership  local-global  interests  heavy-industry 
june 2017 by nhaliday
I hate every ape I see | West Hunter
Chimpanzees, although expensive, are really useful for medical research, since they’re much closer to humans than any other experimental animal. Yet the Feds are phasing out chimp research, and are sending them off to Club Chimp. Francis Collins, director of NIH, says that “new scientific methods and technologies have rendered their use in research largely unnecessary.” Collins is full of crap, as usual.
west-hunter  scitariat  rant  ideas  science  medicine  model-organism  meta:medicine  realness  westminster  kumbaya-kult  is-ought  people  track-record  commentary  current-events  ethics 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Why China Cannot Rise Peacefully - YouTube
- unexpected accent/tone lol
- principles: states as unit of action/global anarchy, uncertainty (fog-of-war), states as rational, selfish actors
- consequences: need to become as powerful as possible, regional hegemon, prevent peer competitors (no other regional hegemon in world, eg, China)
- future: China as giant Hong Kong
- future coalition: India, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, and the USA
- does he actually think Brazil coulda gotten as powerful as the US? lol.
- his summary of American grand strategy (lol):
1. Europe (great powers)
2. NE Asia (great powers)
3. Persian Gulf (oil)
- "Europe will become distant 3rd, Europe is a museum, lotta old people." lol
- "not gonna help us with Asia, got their own problems, bankrupting themselves"
- counterarguments: "not gonna grow, China's a Confucian culture (don't pay attention to those), economic interdependence." doesn't buy the last either.
- best counterarguments: nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence, "age of nationalism"
- mass-murder usually strategic (eg, maintaining power) not ideological

debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd-1LymXXX0

interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXSkY4QKDlA
- Clinton's a realist
- plenty of economic independence prior to world wars
- nukes makes WW3 unlikely, but do not rule out limited war (eg, over East/South China Sea)
- Confucian pacifism argument is ahistorical
rhetoric  video  presentation  foreign-policy  realpolitik  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  expansionism  war  great-powers  defense  statesmen  world  prediction  contrarianism  org:edu  org:davos  trends  martial  politics  polisci  nihil  nationalism-globalism  tetlock  kumbaya-kult  meta:war  intel  strategy  history  mostly-modern  russia  communism  cold-war  signal-noise  meta:prediction  🎩  civilization  rationality  realness  thinking  systematic-ad-hoc  uncertainty  outcome-risk  nyc  geopolitics  speaking  order-disorder  GT-101  chart  canada  latin-america  early-modern  world-war  japan  power  india  coalitions  zero-positive-sum  winner-take-all  germanic  europe  mediterranean  zeitgeist  the-bones  developing-world  korea  obama  MENA  pre-2013  energy-resources  economics  top-n  big-picture  trade  stylized-facts  debate  water  business  confucian  nuclear  deterrence  iraq-syria  africa  iran  oceans  climate-change  leviathan  death  cynicism-idealism  multi  interview  clinton  peace-violence  legibility  orient  flux-stasis  conquest-empire  c 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Shoot to Kill | West Hunter
Some people claim that it is really, really difficult for humans to psych themselves up to kill another human. They often cite a claim by S. L. A. Marshall that only a small fraction – less than 25% – of WWII American combat infantrymen fired their weapons in battle.

Other people (Dave Grossman in particular) have built major theoretical structures on this observation, saying that humans have a built-in mental module than inhibits us from killing conspecifics (presumably for the good of the species). Grossman parlayed this line of thought into a stint as a professor of psychology at West Point.

Which is pretty impressive, especially when you consider that it’s all bullshit. S.L.A Marshall’s ‘data’ is vapor; there was and is nothing to it. He made shit up, not just on this topic. There’s every to reason to think that the vast majority of infantrymen throughout history did their level best to kill those on the other side – and there’s a certain satisfaction in doing so, not least because it beats them killing you.

You have to wonder about a universal human instinct that apparently misfired in every battle in recorded history.

more: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2015/01/06/bad-war/
doesn't think much of John Keegan: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2015/01/06/bad-war/#comment-65138
scrapping: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/05/13/public-intellectuals-pundits-and-all-that/#comment-79192
west-hunter  scitariat  rant  critique  psychology  social-psych  war  meta:war  martial  vitality  nihil  crooked  realness  social-science  error  military  history  mostly-modern  world-war  usa  kumbaya-kult  peace-violence  truth  multi  poast  track-record  letters  iraq-syria  intel  japan  asia  lol  stories  medieval  europe  germanic  death  pic  alt-inst  people  domestication  prudence  westminster  courage  defense 
may 2017 by nhaliday
War Before Civilization | West Hunter
When you think of war, you usually think of organized states, or at minimum peoples with moderately sophisticated modes of production, agriculturalists or pastoralists. But hunter-gatherers manage as well. Not just war, but decisive war, the kind that that obliterates the enemy and results in a major geographic expansion. Before the Eskimos, there was a different population living in arctic North America and Greenland, the Dorset culture. Over a fairly short period, between 1000 AD and 1500 AD, the Thule (ancestors of modern Inuit) moved east, replacing the Dorset. It looks as if the Thule didn’t mix much with the previous occupants either: we have an early Dorset genome that looks very Na-dene-like, while the Eskimos are not. The conflict was recent enough to leave legends among the Eskimo: they say the first inhabitants were giants, taller and stronger but easily scared off.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/deguello/
There’s a new paper out on the genetic prehistory of the Canadian Arctic. Basically, it says that existing Eskimos replaced a genetically different population less than 700 years ago, and that those earlier Paleo-Eskimos (Dorset culture) represent yet another separate migration from Asia (in addition to the PaleoIndians, the Na-Dene, and the Eskimo). They put this in such a nice way: “the genetic continuity characterizing the Paleo-Eskimo period was interrupted by the arrival of a new population.”

Which likely means that the neo-Eskimos killed off the Dorset people. Obviously they weren’t farmers, the usual suspects in replacement, but the new guys had a more sophisticated technology ( and probably greater numbers) , with bows, large skin boats, dog sleds, whale-hunting gear, etc. The neo-Eskimos have certainly done their share of fighting in recent historical times – they went at it hammer-and-tongs with various Amerindian tribes.

This is fairly obvious, so much so that even the New York Times and the Washington Post mentioned extermination by the newcomers as a possible explanation. There is no mention of that possibility in the original research article, but I’m sure that some of the authors were quite aware of it. What they said is probably influenced by the fear that saying anything negative, no matter how true, might cause the Eskimos to refuse cooperation in the future.

This pre-agricultural genocide makes you wonder just how often similar wipeouts may happened in the past. Maybe the Gravettians and Aurignacians weren’t the same people.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  sapiens  genetics  gene-flow  migration  history  antiquity  farmers-and-foragers  canada  usa  multi  archaeology  peace-violence  conquest-empire  war  kumbaya-kult  aDNA  traces 
may 2017 by nhaliday
China Overtakes US in Scientific Articles, Robots, Supercomputers - The Unz Review
gnon  commentary  trends  usa  china  asia  comparison  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  innovation  robotics  automation  latin-america  india  russia  scale  military  defense  foreign-policy  realpolitik  great-powers  kumbaya-kult  thucydides  multi  hsu  scitariat  heavy-industry  news  org:nat  org:sci  data  visualization  list  infographic  world  europe  EU  org:mag  dynamic  ranking  top-n  britain  anglo  japan  meta:science  anglosphere  database  germanic  org:biz  rhetoric  prediction  tech  labor  human-capital  education  higher-ed  money  compensation  idk  org:lite  expansionism  current-events  🔬  the-world-is-just-atoms  🎓  dirty-hands  org:rec  org:anglo  speedometer  track-record  time-series  monetary-fiscal  chart  quality 
may 2017 by nhaliday

related tags

-_-  2016-election  ability-competence  academia  adna  adversarial  africa  age-of-discovery  agriculture  albion  allodium  alt-inst  analogy  analytical-holistic  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anomie  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  archaeology  archaics  aristos  arms  article  asia  attaq  audio  authoritarianism  automation  axelrod  backup  barons  being-right  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  biotech  books  bounded-cognition  brexit  britain  broad-econ  business  c:**  canada  cancer  candidate-gene  canon  capital  capitalism  career  causation  chart  china  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class-warfare  class  climate-change  clinton  clown-world  coalitions  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  commentary  communication  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  concrete  confluence  confucian  conquest-empire  consilience  contracts  contradiction  contrarianism  cooperate-defect  coordination  correlation  corruption  counter-revolution  counterexample  courage  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  crooked  crosstab  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  culture  current-events  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  data-science  data  database  death  debate  debt  decision-making  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  democracy  density  descriptive  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  dignity  dirty-hands  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  dominant-minority  douthatish  duplication  duty  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  economics  econotariat  eden  education  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  egt  elite  embodied  empirical  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  environment  environmental-effects  envy  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  ethics  ethnocentrism  eu  europe  evidence-based  evolution  examples  exit-voice  expansionism  expert-experience  explanans  facebook  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  fiction  finance  fisher  fluid  flux-stasis  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  forms-instances  free-riding  frontier  gallic  gavisti  gedanken  gender-diff  gender  gene-flow  genetics  genomics  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gibbon  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  god-man-beast-victim  government  grad-school  great-powers  group-level  group-selection  growth-econ  gt-101  gwas  gwern  hari-seldon  harvard  heavy-industry  heuristic  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  horror  housing  hsu  human-capital  huntington  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  illusion  impact  incentives  india  inequality  inference  info-dynamics  info-foraging  infographic  infrastructure  innovation  institutions  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intervention  interview  intricacy  investigative-journo  iq  iran  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  isteveish  iteration-recursion  japan  jargon  journos-pundits  judaism  justice  kissinger  knowledge  korea  labor  language  large-factor  latin-america  law  leadership  left-wing  legibility  len:short  letters  leviathan  lexical  life-history  list  literature  lived-experience  local-global  lol  long-short-run  longform  machiavelli  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malthus  managerial-state  marginal-rev  market-power  martial  math  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  mena  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metabuch  methodology  microfoundations  migrant-crisis  migration  military  model-organism  models  modernity  moloch  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  neocons  network-structure  neuro-nitgrit  neuro  news  nibble  nietzschean  nihil  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  noahpinion  noblesse-oblige  nordic  nuclear  nyc  obama  obesity  objektbuch  occam  occident  oceans  offense-defense  old-anglo  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bv  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edu  org:foreign  org:junk  org:lite  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organizing  orient  outcome-risk  paleocon  parable  parallax  parasites-microbiome  parsimony  patho-altruism  pdf  peace-violence  people  persuasion  peter-singer  phalanges  philosophy  physics  pic  piracy  poast  podcast  polanyi-marx  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  pop-diff  pop-structure  population-genetics  population  populism  postmortem  power  pre-2013  pre-ww2  prediction  preference-falsification  presentation  priors-posteriors  privacy  pro-rata  profile  propaganda  property-rights  prudence  pseudoe  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  putnam-like  quality  quantitative-qualitative  quotes  race  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  real-nominal  realness  realpolitik  reason  recent-selection  recommendations  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression  regulation  reinforcement  rent-seeking  retention  review  rhetoric  right-wing  risk  robotics  robust  roots  rot  rounding  russia  s:*  sapiens  scale  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  selection  sex  shift  signal-noise  signaling  simulation  sinosphere  sky  smoothness  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social  society  socs-and-mops  space  spatial  speaking  spearhead  speculation  speed  speedometer  spreading  ssc  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stories  strategy  straussian  street-fighting  structure  study  stylized-facts  subculture  summary  sv  symmetry  systematic-ad-hoc  tactics  taxes  tech  technocracy  technology  terrorism  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-trenches  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theory-practice  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  thucydides  time-series  time  top-n  traces  track-record  trade  trends  tribalism  troll  trump  trust  truth  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  universalism-particularism  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  values  vampire-squid  video  visualization  visuo  vitality  volo-avolo  von-neumann  war  water  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wisdom  wonkish  world-war  world  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎓  🎩  🐸  🔬 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: