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Bruce Campbell: The Great Transition, Lecture 1 of 4 - Ellen McArthur Lectures 2013, Faculty of History, University of Cambridge
See his 2016 book with CUP - The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Medieval World - kindle-available
Lecture schedule
Lecture 1 - The 14th century as tipping point: From one socio-ecological status quo to another
Lecture 2 - The enabling environment: The Medieval Solar Maximum and Latin Christendom's high-medieval efflorescence
Lecture 3 - A precarious balance: Mounting economic vulnerability in an era of increasing climatic instability
Lecture 4 - Disease intervenes: The Black Death and the 'Great Transition' to an alternative socio-ecological equilibrium
video  lecture  economic_history  social_history  environmental_history  disease  Black_Death  medieval_history  12thC  13thC  14thC  15thC  Italy  urbanization  foreign_trade  Mongols  Mamluks  spice_trade  Central_Asia  genetics  weather  agriculture  demography  economic_growth  climate-history  climate_change  Little_Ice_Age  Italy-cities  international_finance 
november 2017 by dunnettreader
What determines when states adopt war taxes to finance the cost of conflict? We address this question with a study of war taxes in the United States between 1789 and 2010. Using logit estimation of the determinants of war taxes, an analysis of roll-call votes on war tax legislation, and a historical case study of the Civil War, we provide evidence that partisan fiscal differences account whether the United States finances its conflicts through war taxes or opts for alternatives such as borrowing or expanding the money supply. Because the fiscal policies implemented to raise the revenues for war have considerable and often enduring redistributive impacts, war finance—in particular, war taxation—becomes a high-stakes political opportunity to advance the fiscal interests of core constituencies. Insofar as the alternatives to taxation shroud the actual costs of war, the findings have important implications for democratic accountability and the conduct of conflict. - Downloaded via iphone
US_history  downloaded  politics-and-money  US_military  deficit_finance  sovereign_debt  business_cycles  international_finance  fiscal_policy  Congress  US_foreign_policy  capital_markets  fiscal-military_state  political_history  article  political_economy  monetary_policy  taxes  US_politics  accountability  financial_system  redistribution  business-and-politics 
july 2017 by dunnettreader
Ricardo J. Caballero, Alp Simsek - A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment: Global Liquidity Creation and Reach for Safety and Yield - NBER - October 2016
Gross capital flows are very large and highly cyclical. They are a central aspect of global liquidity creation and destruction. They also exhibit rich internal dynamics that shape fluctuations in domestic liquidity, such as the fickleness of foreign capital inflows and the retrenchment of domestic capital outflows during crises. In this paper we provide a model that builds on these observations to address some of the main questions and concerns in the capital flows literature. Within this model, we find that for symmetric economies, the liquidity provision aspect of capital flows vastly outweighs their fickleness cost, so that taxing capital flows, while could prove useful for a country in isolation, backfires as a global equilibrium outcome. However, if the system is heterogeneous and includes economies with abundant (DM) and with limited (EM) natural domestic liquidity, there can be scenarios when global liquidity uncertainty is high and EM's reach for safety can destabilize DMs, as well as risk-on scenarios in which DM's reach for yield can destabilize EMs.
paper  paywall  NBER  capital_flows  capital_markets  yield  liquidity  emerging_markets  capital_controls  financial_stability  international_finance 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Iryna Stewen & Mathias Hoffmann - Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, US house prices & the long shadow of banking deregulation (2015 wp)
Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy with number 112834. -- Abstract -- We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
banking  financial_crisis  deregulation  US_economy  downloaded  financial_regulation  global_imbalance  capital_markets  post-Cold_War  financial_system  interstate_banking  savings  house_prices  securitization  financial_innovation  interest_rates  mortgages  international_finance  capital_flows  community_banks  paper  21stC  economic_history  competition-interstate  NBFI 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
R. Esteves - The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective (2011) Oxford Economic and Social Sciences WP
This paper is a first attempt to garner the theory and evidence on the political economy of the first wave of financial liberalisation during the nineteenth and early twentieth century, and of its demise after World War I. Not everyone gained from the process of globalisation (of trade, labour, and finance), which brought about important changes in the structure of the economy and the distribution of income in nations across the world. This paper explores how the economic incentives generated by these dislocations translated, through the political system, into choices about openness to foreign capital and financial integration. The period before World War I is remarkable by the almost absence of restrictions on cross-border capital flows, which may explain the little attention it has received in the historical literature, compared to the extensive study of trade protectionism in this period. After the War, many countries experimented with capital controls which varied in nature and intensity and were intensified during the Depression. Despite the attempt made here to reconcile these stylized facts to models of political economy, the analysis requires a better empirical foundation and some suggestions for further research are also proposed. - Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX.
financial_regulation  economic_growth  pre-WWI  20thC  protectionism  downloaded  gold_standard  international_finance  financial_system  trade-policy  trade  19thC  capital_flows  capital_controls  globalization  deregulation  free_trade  paper  economic_history  financial_innovation  political_economy 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Dewatripont, M. and Rochet, J., Tirole, J. - Balancing the Banks: Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis (orig 2010) - Princeton University Press
The financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.

While some recent policy moves go in the right direction, others, the book argues, are not sufficient to prevent another crisis. The authors show the necessity of an adaptive prudential regulatory system that can better address financial innovation. Stressing the numerous and complex challenges faced by politicians, finance professionals, and regulators, and calling for reinforced international coordination (for example, in the treatment of distressed banks), the authors put forth a number of principles to deal with issues regarding the economic incentives of financial institutions, the impact of economic shocks, and the role of political constraints.

Offering a global perspective, Balancing the Banks should be read by anyone concerned with solving the current crisis and preventing another such calamity in the future.
Downloaded Chapters 1 & 2 to Tab S2
books  kindle-available  downloaded  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  bank_runs  shadow_banking  capital_markets  capital_flows  capital_adequacy  liquidity  risk_management  incentives-distortions  incentives  international_finance  global_governance  regulatory_arbitrage  regulatory_avoidance  regulation-costs  regulation-enforcement  regulation-harmonization  regulation 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Jean Tirole - Financial Crises, Liquidity, and the International Monetary System (eBook, Paperback 2016 and Hardcover 2002) - Princeton University Press
Written post Asia crisis but eternally applicable - he was focusing on capital flows when it still was heterodoxy -- Once upon a time, economists saw capital account liberalization--the free and unrestricted flow of capital in and out of countries--as unambiguously good. Good for debtor states, good for the world economy. No longer. Spectacular banking and currency crises in recent decades have shattered the consensus. In this remarkably clear and pithy volume, one of Europe's leading economists examines these crises, the reforms being undertaken to prevent them, and how global financial institutions might be restructured to this end. Jean Tirole first analyzes the current views on the crises and on the reform of the international financial architecture. Reform proposals often treat the symptoms rather than the fundamentals, he argues, and sometimes fail to reconcile the objectives of setting effective financing conditions while ensuring that a country "owns" its reform program. A proper identification of market failures is essential to reformulating the mission of an institution such as the IMF, he emphasizes. Next he adapts the basic principles of corporate governance, liquidity provision, and risk management of corporations to the particulars of country borrowing. Building on a "dual- and common-agency perspective," he revisits commonly advocated policies and considers how multilateral organizations can help debtor countries reap enhanced benefits while liberalizing their capital accounts.

Based on the Paolo Baffi Lecture the author delivered at the Bank of Italy, this refreshingly accessible book is teeming with rich insights that researchers, policymakers, and students at all levels will find indispensable. -- downloaded excerpt to Tab S2
books  kindle-available  downloaded  financial_system  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  banking  capital_adequacy  contagion  sovereign_debt  international_monetary_system  international_finance  international_political_economy  IMF  emerging_markets  globalization  global_governance  global_system 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson & Summers - How secular stagnation in open economies spreads and how it can be cured |, 22 July 2016
Secular stagnation in the open economies: How it spreads, how it can be cured - Gauti Eggertsson, Lawrence Summers - The secular stagnation hypothesis suggests that low interest rates may be the new normal in years to come. This column argues that this prospect should not only lead to a major rethinking of policy from the perspective of individual economies, but also a major rethinking about monetary and fiscal policy in the international context, the role of international capital flows, and the role of policy coordination across borders. In times of secular stagnation, events such as Brexit or the recent turbulence in Turkey have much larger spillover effects than under normal circumstances. -- Much of previous work, including our own writings (Summers 2014, Eggertsson and Mehotra 2014), focuses on the secular stagnation hypothesis in the context of the US. Our two recent papers, however, written jointly with Neil Mehrotra (Eggertsson et al. 2016a, hereafter EMS) and with Neil Mehrotra and Sanjay Singh (Eggertsson et al. 2016b, hereafter EMSS), highlight the importance of real exchange rates and especially international capital movements in spreading secular stagnation, and the resulting policy spillovers across countries. -- downloaded to Tab S2
paper  downloaded  international_political_economy  international_finance  monetary_policy  central_banks  fiscal_policy  investment  savings  capital_flows  contagion  stagnation  interest_rates 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Stitching together the global financial safety net | Bank Underground - July 2016 - Very useful sketch of the various mechanisms, especially central bank swaps, that were put in place during the early part of the financial crisis that kept liquidity shocks from turning into a global crash - additional mechanism designed since then, with lots of attention on regional arrangements, and a boost to the IMF's capital. Still concerns re holes in the safety net - especially if there's contagion that's region-wide - and concerns that developing economies may not have access to sufficient resources to manage sudden stops. .
Instapaper  global_economy  international_monetary_system  international_finance  financial_crisis  capital_flows  central_banks  IMF  emerging_markets  contagion  from instapaper
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Eggertsson, Mehrotra, Singh & Summers - A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation | NBER June 2016
Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Sanjay R. Singh, Lawrence H. Summers - Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation.
economic_theory  interest_rates  stagnation  economic_growth  OECD_economies  paywall  capital_flows  paper  international_finance  global_economy  contagion  monetary_policy  FX-rate_management  international_political_economy  competition-interstate  fiscal_policy  fiscal_multipliers  trade-policy  Labor_markets  austerity  competiveness-labor  wages  labor_standards 
july 2016 by dunnettreader
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian - Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? | IMF Staff Papers - Jan 2009
IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009 -- The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong. - downloaded pdf to Note
international_political_economy  paper  IMF  macroeconomics  access_to_finance  LDCs  FX-rate_management  downloaded  emerging_markets  investment  economic_theory  economic_growth  development  capital_controls  international_finance  capital_flows  investment-government  FX-misalignment  international_economics  economic_policy  global_economy  financial_sector_development  financial_economics  economic_reform 
june 2016 by Werderbach
Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian - Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? | IMF Staff Papers - Jan 2009
IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 112–138. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.29; published online 6 January 2009 -- The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment- than savings-constrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  downloaded  IMF  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  emerging_markets  LDCs  capital_flows  investment  investment-government  development  economic_growth  economic_policy  economic_reform  access_to_finance  capital_controls  FX-misalignment  FX-rate_management  economic_theory  macroeconomics  international_economics  financial_economics  financial_sector_development 
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Coppola Comment: Debt hysteria - September 30, 2014
The global debt glut described in the Geneva 16 report, and the global saving glut described by Bernanke, are the same thing. The authors note that growth has been slowing in developed countries since 1980. Indeed it has - and during that time capital ownership and indebtedness have been increasing in tandem, as we might expect since they are opposite sides of the same coin. The report cites numerous analyses that show high debt levels - public AND private - tending to impede growth as resources that could have been turned to productive investment are spent on debt service. Secular stagnation is as much a consequence of over-indebtedness as it is of excess capital. -- When the private sector is highly indebted, saving can take the form of paying off debt. If the government runs a surplus, therefore, it impedes deleveraging in the private sector, and may even force some sectors (typically the poor) to increase debt. Reducing the sovereign debt not only reduces saving in the private sector, it comes at the price of continued and possibly rising indebtedness. The report rightly notes that transferring debt from the private to the public sector, as the US has done, isn't deleveraging. But transferring it back again isn't deleveraging either. And as transferring it back again is likely only to be possible with extensive sovereign guarantees (the UK's Help to Buy, for example), whose debt is it really, anyway? Reports such as this, that look on debt as a problem and ignore the associated savings, fail to address the real issue. The fact is that households, corporations and governments like to have savings and are terrified of loss. Writing down the debt in which people invest their savings means that people must lose their savings. THIS is the real "shock, horror". This is what people fear when they worry about a catastrophic debt default. This is what the world went to great lengths to prevent in 2008. The problem is not the debt, it is the savings.
OECD_economies  Evernote  global_economy  risk-systemic  creditors  deleverage  international_political_economy  credit  debtors  debt  risk  leverage  investment  economic_growth  institutional_investors  equity  capital_adequacy  capital_markets  international_finance  equity-corporate  banking  default  pensions  inflation  government_finance  global_imbalance  debt-restructuring  sovereign_debt  emerging_markets  stagnation  savings  property_rights  austerity  interest_rates 
april 2016 by Werderbach
Pari Passu Closing Ceremonies Quote Parade - Credit Slips - Feb 2016
Lifting the Argentina injunction - the initial rationale(s) and the rationale(s) for what's changed for all the (old and new "me too" players) that changes the calculation of who's entitled to what equitable relief - like, what took so long?
Pocket  international_finance  capital_markets  sovereign_debt  default  international_law  equitable_relief  judiciary  common_law  common_law-equity  transnational_power  from pocket
february 2016 by dunnettreader
Avinash Persaud - A blueprint for overcoming systemic risk | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal - 20 November 2015
As the recent Financial Stability Board decision on loss-absorbing capital shows, repairing the financial system is still a work in progress. This column reviews the author’s new book on the matter, Reinventing Financial Regulation: A Blueprint for Overcoming Systemic Risks. It argues that financial institutions should be required to put up capital against the mismatch between each type of risk they hold and their natural capacity to hold that type of risk. -- downloaded as pdf to Note
books  financial_regulation  financial_crisis  risk-systemic  risk_shifting  risk_management  risk_assessment  leverage  hedging  capital_adequacy  shadow_banking  liquidity  risk_premiums  firesales  banking  banking-universal  credit_ratings  balance_sheet  international_finance  maturity_transformation  downloaded 
november 2015 by dunnettreader
Marcos Chsmon - Guest Contribution: “Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective” | Ecinbrowser - Sept 2015
Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Marcos Chamon, Senior Economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund,… Surprise, surprise!
Instapaper  international_political_economy  international_finance  international_monetary_system  FX-rate_management  capital_flows  contagion  hot_money  capital_controls  Brazil  from instapaper
september 2015 by dunnettreader
Timothy W. Guinnane -A pragmatic approach to external debt: The write-down of Germany’s debts in 1953 | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal -13 August 2015
Greece’s crisis has invited comparisons to the 1953 London Debt Agreement, which ended a long period of German default on external debt. This column suggests that looking back, the 1953 agreement was unnecessarily generous given that Germany’s rapid growth lightened the debt repayment burden. Unfortunately for Greece, the motivations driving the 1953 agreement are nearly entirely absent today. -- downloaded pdf to Note
article  sovereign_debt  default  20thC  post-WWII  Germany  international_political_economy  international_finance  international_monetary_system  Greece-Troika  creditors  EU_governance  IMF  international_organizations  structural_adjustment  austerity  economic_growth  downloaded 
august 2015 by dunnettreader
Arvind Subramanian - How the IMF Failed Greece | Project Syndicate August 2015
Grexit should have been on the menu as a realistic option, properly supported with financing the transition, instead of the horrifying unknown for Greece and the Eurozone. Better start planning, since it's likely to come up again, certainly for Greece and possibly other EZ members.
Pocket  Eurozone  Eurocrsis  Greece-Troika  EU_governance  IMF  international_organizations  international_political_economy  international_finance  international_monetary_system  sovereign_debt  from pocket
august 2015 by dunnettreader

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