info-econ   34

Linus's Law - Wikipedia
Linus's Law is a claim about software development, named in honor of Linus Torvalds and formulated by Eric S. Raymond in his essay and book The Cathedral and the Bazaar (1999).[1][2] The law states that "given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow";


In Facts and Fallacies about Software Engineering, Robert Glass refers to the law as a "mantra" of the open source movement, but calls it a fallacy due to the lack of supporting evidence and because research has indicated that the rate at which additional bugs are uncovered does not scale linearly with the number of reviewers; rather, there is a small maximum number of useful reviewers, between two and four, and additional reviewers above this number uncover bugs at a much lower rate.[4] While closed-source practitioners also promote stringent, independent code analysis during a software project's development, they focus on in-depth review by a few and not primarily the number of "eyeballs".[5][6]

Although detection of even deliberately inserted flaws[7][8] can be attributed to Raymond's claim, the persistence of the Heartbleed security bug in a critical piece of code for two years has been considered as a refutation of Raymond's dictum.[9][10][11][12] Larry Seltzer suspects that the availability of source code may cause some developers and researchers to perform less extensive tests than they would with closed source software, making it easier for bugs to remain.[12] In 2015, the Linux Foundation's executive director Jim Zemlin argued that the complexity of modern software has increased to such levels that specific resource allocation is desirable to improve its security. Regarding some of 2014's largest global open source software vulnerabilities, he says, "In these cases, the eyeballs weren't really looking".[11] Large scale experiments or peer-reviewed surveys to test how well the mantra holds in practice have not been performed.

Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow? Revisiting Eric Raymond with bug bounty programs:
wiki  reference  aphorism  ideas  stylized-facts  programming  engineering  linux  worse-is-better/the-right-thing  correctness  debugging  checking  best-practices  security  error  scale  ubiquity  collaboration  oss  realness  empirical  evidence-based  multi  study  info-econ  economics  intricacy  plots  manifolds  techtariat  cracker-prog  os  systems  magnitude  quantitative-qualitative  number  threat-modeling 
5 weeks ago by nhaliday
The Constitutional Economics of Autocratic Succession on JSTOR
Abstract. The paper extends and empirically tests Gordon Tullock’s public choice theory of the nature of autocracy. A simple model of the relationship between constitutional rules governing succession in autocratic regimes and the occurrence of coups against autocrats is sketched. The model is applied to a case study of coups against monarchs in Denmark in the period ca. 935–1849. A clear connection is found between the specific constitutional rules governing succession and the frequency of coups. Specifically, the introduction of automatic hereditary succession in an autocracy provides stability and limits the number of coups conducted by contenders.

Table 2. General constitutional rules of succession, Denmark ca. 935–1849

To see this the data may be divided into three categories of constitutional rules of succession: One of open succession (for the periods 935–1165 and 1326–40), one of appointed succession combined with election (for the periods 1165–1326 and 1340–1536), and one of more or less formalized hereditary succession (1536–1849). On the basis of this categorization the data have been summarized in Table 3.

validity of empirics is a little sketchy
The graphic novel it is based on is insightful, illustrates Tullock's game-theoretic, asymmetric information views on autocracy.

Conclusions from Gorton Tullock's book Autocracy, p. 211-215.:
study  polisci  political-econ  economics  cracker-econ  big-peeps  GT-101  info-econ  authoritarianism  antidemos  government  micro  leviathan  elite  power  institutions  garett-jones  multi  econotariat  twitter  social  commentary  backup  art  film  comics  fiction  competition  europe  nordic  empirical  evidence-based  incentives  legacy  peace-violence  order-disorder  🎩  organizing  info-dynamics  history  medieval  law  axioms  stylized-facts  early-modern  data  longitudinal  flux-stasis  shift  revolution  correlation  org:junk  org:edu  summary  military  war  top-n  hi-order-bits  feudal  democracy  sulla  leadership  nascent-state  protocol-metadata 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Health Services as Credence Goods: A Field Experiment by Felix Gottschalk, Wanda Mimra, Christian Waibel :: SSRN
A test patient who does not need treatment is sent to 180 dentists to receive treatment recommendations. In the experiment, we vary two factors: First, the information that the patient signals to the dentist. Second, we vary the perceived socioeconomic status (SES) of the test patient. Furthermore, we collected data to construct several measures of short- and long-term demand and competition as well as dentist and practice characteristics. We find that the patient receives an overtreatment recommendation in _more than every fourth visit_. A low short-term demand, indicating excess capacities, leads to significantly more overtreatment recommendations. Physician density and their price level, however, do not have a significant effect on overtreatment. Furthermore, we observe significantly less overtreatment recommendations for the patient with higher SES compared to lower SES under standard information. More signalled information however does not significantly reduce overtreatment.

How much dentists are ethically concerned about overtreatment; a vignette-based survey in Switzerland:
Are Dentists Overtreating Your Teeth?:
Have you had a rash of fillings after years of healthy teeth? The culprit may be “microcavities,” and not every dentist thinks they need to be treated, reports today’s Science Times.
How Dentists Rip Us Off:
study  economics  micro  field-study  markets  trust  healthcare  dental  crooked  supply-demand  incentives  class  signaling  🎩  trivia  cocktail  europe  germanic  medicine  meta:medicine  integrity  ethics  free-riding  data  scale  inequality  news  org:rec  org:health  info-econ  pdf  org:mag  left-wing  multi 
october 2017 by nhaliday
A Model of Protests, Revolution, and Information
A population considering a revolt must participate in sufficient numbers to succeed. We study how their ability to coordinate is affected by their information. The effects of information are non-monotone: the population may coordinate on a revolt if there is very little information or if they know a lot about each other’s preferences for change, but having each agent know about the the willingness of a few others to revolt can actually make non-participation by all the unique equilibrium. We also show that holding mass protests before a revolution can be an essential step in mobilizing a population. Protests provide costly signals of how many agents are willing to participate, while easier forms of communication (e.g., via social media) may fail to signal willingness to actively participate. Thus, although social media can enhance coordination, it may still be necessary to hold a protest before a revolution in order to measure the size of the population willing to revolt. We also examine how having competing groups involved in a revolution can change its feasibility, as well as other extensions, such as what the minimal redistribution on the part of the government is in order to avoid a revolution, and the role of propaganda.
pdf  study  economics  models  info-econ  preference-falsification  info-dynamics  MENA  revolution  signaling  media  propaganda  coalitions  westminster  polisci  political-econ  redistribution  🎩  leviathan  GT-101  internet  authoritarianism  antidemos  micro  flux-stasis  organizing 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Revealing the Economic Consequences of Group Cohesion
A comprehensive program of new experiments reveals the considerable economic impact of cohesion: higher cohesion groups are significantly more likely to achieve Pareto-superior outcomes in classic weak-link coordination games. We show that effects of cohesion are economically large, robust, and portable. We identify social preferences as a primary mechanism explaining the effects of cohesion.


Our workhorse to study group outcomes is a weak-link coordination game chosen because it captures economically interesting problems endemic to organizations and teams (e.g., Camerer and Weber (2013)). In our version of the weak-link game, inspired by Brandts and Cooper (2006), group members simultaneously choose an effort level. Payoffs to each group member then depend on their own effort and the lowest effort chosen by anyone (the “weakest link”) in the group. The game has multiple strict Pareto-ranked Nash equilibria in material payoffs. This feature makes it particularly interesting for our purposes because it combines two dimensions of group success: features of coordination (choosing the same effort level as other group members) and cooperation (groups achieving Pareto-superior Nash equilibria). We expected our weak-link game to be a “harsh” environment in the sense that most groups who play this game under anonymity and in the absence of pre-existing social relationships will collapse to the Pareto-worst equilibrium and never escape from it (Brandts and Cooper (2006), and own replication).

As we show in Section V, group cohesion is a key determinant of behavior in our experiments: low cohesion groups usually descend rapidly to minimum effort; high cohesion groups fare much better and high cohesion appears necessary (though not sufficient) for achieving Pareto-superior outcomes. Surprisingly, our measure of group cohesion is the only variable that successfully predicts cooperation success; none of more than twenty control variables (demographics and group characteristics) explain minimum effort. Further experiments show that our results are robust to the timing of oneness measurement (before or after play of the weak-link game). By benchmarking our results against the effect of monetary incentives, we also show (Section VI) that the effortenhancing effects of group cohesion are sizeable: large financial incentives are needed to achieve the levels of minimum effort expected for high cohesion groups.

In Section VII we turn to an explanation of our results. A rational choice perspective suggests three natural channels through which group cohesion could operate: it might affect some combination of group members’ social preferences, their beliefs or the form of their strategic reasoning. Considering social preferences, it is plausible to assume that members of highly cohesive groups care about one another and so place weight on each other’s earnings.1 In our weak-link game, if players do draw utility from each other’s earnings, this is tantamount to (some) sharing of earnings, which reduces strategic risk and fosters coordination on Pareto-superior equilibria.2 In relation to beliefs, highly cohesive groups may be more confident in simulating other group members’ thought processes and likely actions, perhaps because of a history of interactions in different (related) situations, which allows for implicit learning (e.g., Holyoak and Spellman (1993), Rick and Weber (2010)). Finally, group cohesion might influence the nature of strategic reasoning in more substantive ways. For instance, according to one model of strategic thinking, “team reasoning” (e.g., Sugden (2003), Bacharach (2006)), people think in terms of what would be best for the team (e.g., picking the Pareto-best equilibrium) and are inclined to do their part in implementing the group-optimal outcome. An interesting possibility is that team reasoning may be more likely the more cohesive the team is. These three channels might operate jointly and potentially reinforce each other in high cohesion groups. By contrast, low cohesion groups may have low levels of social preferences, little implicit learning to draw on from shared situations, and no team perception to facilitate team reasoning.

We probe these possibilities in two steps. We first show that subjects who report high oneness with their fellow group members are indeed more likely to expose themselves to the strategic risk of choosing high initial effort in our weak-link games; they are also less “harsh” in their responses when others’ effort levels are below their own. In highly cohesive groups, these tendencies apply across group members promoting coordination on equilibria above the Pareto-worst.

Our second step is to identify the social preferences channel as a promising route for explaining observed effects of group cohesion. We demonstrate this via additional experiments in which unrelated and anonymous group members play weak-link games but with all earnings shared equally. We interpret this manipulation as inducing a limiting form of social preferences (where all put equal weight on everyone’s material payoffs). The results show patterns of effort (opening levels and dynamics) very comparable to the top third most cohesive groups from our main experiment. Thus, social preferences provide a parsimonious candidate explanation of how group cohesion promotes Pareto-superior equilibria.

Smart groups of smart people: Evidence for IQ as the origin of collective intelligence in the performance of human groups:
Group-IQ almost exclusively reflects individual cognition. (80% variance explained)
pdf  study  org:ngo  economics  growth-econ  behavioral-gen  psychology  social-psych  cohesion  putnam-like  coordination  trust  social-capital  values  tribalism  descriptive  collaboration  pareto  efficiency  anthropology  altruism  🎩  white-paper  info-econ  microfoundations  industrial-org  n-factor  broad-econ  cooperate-defect  axelrod  organizing  roots  interests  hive-mind  multi  iq  gender  contrarianism  critique  management  diversity  individualism-collectivism  objective-measure  biophysical-econ  wealth-of-nations  variance-components  null-result  attaq  intelligence  psychometrics  decision-making  GT-101  public-goodish 
june 2017 by nhaliday
How Transparency Kills Information Aggregation: Theory and Experiment
We investigate the potential of transparency to influence committee decision-making. We present a model in which career concerned committee members receive private information of different type-dependent accuracy, deliberate and vote. We study three levels of transparency under which career concerns are predicted to affect behavior differently, and test the model’s key predictions in a laboratory experiment. The model’s predictions are largely borne out – transparency negatively affects information aggregation at the deliberation and voting stages, leading to sharply different committee error rates than under secrecy. This occurs despite subjects revealing more information under transparency than theory predicts.
study  economics  micro  decision-making  decision-theory  collaboration  coordination  info-econ  info-dynamics  behavioral-econ  field-study  clarity  ethics  civic  integrity  error  unintended-consequences  🎩  org:ngo  madisonian  regularizer  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  white-paper  microfoundations  open-closed  composition-decomposition  organizing  grokkability-clarity 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The More Parents Pass on Earning Power to Offspring, the Weaker the Argument for..., Garett Jones | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
...the welfare state as social insurance.

After all, if you know how your kids are going to turn out, what's there to insure against? Sure, you'd like to grab resources from other people--the raiding party has a long history--but it's only when you're not sure how your kids will turn out that you start fretting over whether insurance markets face major market failures and whether government-mandated redistribution can fix those market failures.


The Great Gatsby Curve has made the rounds recently, showing that in countries with higher income inequality, your parent's income does a better job predicting your income. One version from Chrystia Freeland, author of the new book Plutocrats (source: WonkBlog).


Coda: I'm trying to get in the habit of often using "productivity" instead of "income" or "earnings." I use the term neutrally, referring to private productivity not overall productivity, so a successful raiding party is just as productive as a McDonald's.

Subcoda: I saw Freeland speak about her book earlier this year, and she places substantial weight on productivity-side explanations for the rise of the new plutocracy.
econotariat  spearhead  garett-jones  hmm  trends  politics  polisci  wonkish  inequality  redistribution  government  policy  correlation  insurance  market-failure  economics  mobility  class  plots  org:econlib  age-generation  broad-econ  biodet  info-econ  s-factor  behavioral-gen  welfare-state  bootstraps  elite  envy  X-not-about-Y 
march 2017 by nhaliday

related tags

academia  accretion  acmtariat  adversarial  age-generation  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  analysis  annalee  anthropology  antidemos  aphorism  applicability-prereqs  arbitrage  art  article  attaq  authoritarianism  axelrod  axioms  backup  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  best-practices  big-peeps  biodet  biophysical-econ  books  bootstraps  broad-econ  business  canon  career  censorship  charity  chart  checking  christianity  civic  clarity  class  classic  clever-rats  coalitions  cocktail  cohesion  collaboration  comics  commentary  communication  comparison  competition  composition-decomposition  concentration-of-measure  confusion  conquest-empire  contracts  contrarianism  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correctness  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cracker-econ  cracker-prog  crime  critique  crooked  cultural-dynamics  culture  dan-luu  data  debugging  decision-making  decision-theory  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  density  dental  descriptive  developing-world  discrimination  diversity  duty  early-modern  ecology  economics  econotariat  education  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  egt  elite  empirical  engineering  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  ensembles  entrepreneurialism  envy  equilibrium  error  essay  ethics  ethnocentrism  europe  evidence-based  evolution  expansionism  expectancy  explanation  farmers-and-foragers  feudal  fiction  field-study  film  finance  fluid  flux-stasis  free-riding  frontier  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  game-theory  garett-jones  gedanken  gender  germanic  gotchas  government  gray-econ  grokkability-clarity  group-selection  growth-econ  gt-101  h2o  hanson  hari-seldon  healthcare  henrich  hi-order-bits  history  hive-mind  hmm  homepage  honor  huge-data-the-biggest  ideas  idk  iidness  impetus  impro  incentives  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  inequality  info-dynamics  info-foraging  innovation  insight  institutions  insurance  integrity  intel  intelligence  interests  internet  intervention  intricacy  iq  is-ought  judgement  justice  knowledge  latin-america  law  leadership  left-wing  legacy  lens  lesswrong  leviathan  limits  linux  list  literature  local-global  long-short-run  longitudinal  madisonian  magnitude  malthus  management  manifolds  map-territory  marginal-rev  market-failure  markets  martial  media  medicine  medieval  mena  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:war  methodology  micro  microfoundations  migration  military  miri-cfar  mobility  models  moloch  mostly-modern  multi  n-factor  nascent-state  near-far  news  nl-and-so-can-you  noblesse-oblige  noise-structure  nordic  novelty  null-result  number  objective-measure  open-closed  operational  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:econlib  org:edu  org:health  org:junk  org:mag  org:nat  org:ngo  org:rec  organizing  os  oss  outcome-risk  papers  pareto  paul-romer  pdf  peace-violence  people  persuasion  plots  poetry  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  power  pre-2013  prediction-markets  prediction  preference-falsification  presence  privacy  probability  prof  programming  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  protocol-metadata  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  putnam-like  q-n-a  quantitative-qualitative  quixotic  quotes  random  randy-ayndy  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reference  regularizer  religion  rent-seeking  research-program  research  responsibility  revealed-preference  revolution  rhetoric  risk  ritual  roots  s-factor  sapiens  saxenian  scale  security  selection  sense  shift  signal-noise  signaling  singularity  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social  society  sociology  space  spatial  spearhead  speculation  speed  spock  spreading  ssc  stackex  status  strategy  street-fighting  study  stylized-facts  sulla  summary  supply-demand  systems  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  temperance  the-basilisk  the-watchers  theos  thiel  thinking  threat-modeling  time  top-n  trade  trends  tribalism  tricks  trivia  trust  truth  twitter  ubiquity  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  usa  values  variance-components  vitality  volo-avolo  war  wealth-of-nations  wealth  welfare-state  westminster  white-paper  wiki  wire-guided  wonkish  working-stiff  world-war  worse-is-better/the-right-thing  x-not-about-y  yak-shaving  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🖥  🤖 

Copy this bookmark: