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Scientists link Hurricane Harvey’s record rainfall to climate change • The New York Times
Henry Fountain:
<p>Two research groups found that the record rainfall as Harvey stalled over Texas in late August, which totaled more than 50 inches in some areas, was as much as 38% higher than would be expected in a world that was not warming.

While many scientists had said at the time that Harvey was probably affected by climate change, because warmer air holds more moisture, the size of the increase surprised some.

“The amount of precipitation increase is worse than I expected,” said Michael J. Wehner, a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and an author of <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075888/full">a paper on his group’s findings</a>, which included the 38% figure. Based on how much the world has warmed, Dr. Wehner said, before the analysis he had expected an increase of only about 6 or 7%.

The other study, by an international coalition of scientists known as World Weather Attribution, found that Harvey’s rainfall was 15% higher than would be expected without climate change. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the lead author of the second study, said that climate change also made such an extreme rainstorm much more likely.</p>

Important finding - this sort of determinism is unusual. (But did it have to be Henry <em>Fountain</em>?)
climatechange  harvey 
9 weeks ago by charlesarthur
Harris County proposing dramatic overhaul of floodplain regulations - Houston Chronicle
Nearly three months after Hurricane Harvey, Harris County is proposing a dramatic overhaul of its floodplain regulations that could force developers to build new homes up to 10 feet above current requirements.

County officials are largely intent on swapping out the use of 100-year flood levels for regulations and use 500-year flood levels instead, opting to force new building construction to prepare for much more severe storms.

A 100-year event refers to a storm so severe that it has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year, and would equate to between 12 and 14 inches of rainfall in 24 hours.

A 500-year event has a 0.2 percent chance of occurring in any year, and would equate to between 17 and 20 inches of rainfall in 24 hours.
houston  harvey  flood  flooding 
12 weeks ago by pdiddie

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