gwern   197

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Added "docs/rl/1963-michie.pdf", Added "docs/rl/1982-michie.pdf", Added "docs/rl/1991-gardner-ch8amatchboxgamelearningmachine.pdf"
gwern  spike 
18 hours ago by edan
Embryo selection for intelligence -
Modified "", Added "docs/iq/1990-hunter.pdf"
gwern  spike 
18 hours ago by edan
Archiving-URLs -
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18 hours ago by edan
Added "docs/genetics/correlation/2015-pettersson.pdf", Added "docs/genetics/selection/2017-murray.pdf", Added "docs/sr/2017-ladegaard-2.pdf"
gwern  spike 
18 hours ago by edan
Banner Ads Considered Harmful (Here) -
> Power analysis of historical traffic data demonstrates that the high autocorrelation yields very low statistical power with standard tests & regressions but acceptable power with ARIMA models. I design a long-term time-series approach in which a A/B-test running January-October 2017 in 2-day blocks of ads/no-ads uses client-local JS to determine whether to load & display ads. The final results yields a strong estimate of 14% traffic loss if all traffic were exposed to ads (95% credible interval: -13-16%) and an expected traffic loss of ~9.7%, far exceeding the decision threshold for disabling ads and rendering profitless further experimentation. Thus, banner ads on appear to be quite harmful and AdSense has been removed.
gwern  statistics 
9 days ago by porejide
Fish on Friday | West Hunter
There are parts of Europe, Switzerland and Bavaria for example, that are seriously iodine deficient. This used to be a problem. I wonder if fish on Friday ameliorated it: A three-ounce serving size of cod provides your body with 99 micrograms of iodine, or 66% of the recommended amount per day.

Thinking further, it wasn’t just Fridays: there were ~130 days a years when the Catholic Church banned flesh.

Gwern on modern iodine-deficiency:
population surveys indicate lots of people are iodine-insufficient even in the US or UK where the problem should’ve been permanently solved a century ago
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24 days ago by nhaliday
Dual N-Back FAQ -
A compendium of DNB, WM, IQ information up to 2015
n-back  iq  working-memory  gwern  productivity 
4 weeks ago by gorekee
A history of the neural net/tank legend in AI, and other examples of reward hacking
@gwern: "A history of the neural net/tank legend in AI: (Feel free to suggest more sightings or examples of reward hacking!)"
gwern  history  ai  machine-learning  ml  genetic-algorithms  neural-networks  perceptron  learning  training  data  reward-hacking 
5 weeks ago by jm
trees are harlequins, words are harlequins — bayes: a kinda-sorta masterpost
lol, gwern:
> What sort of person thinks “oh yeah, my beliefs about these coefficients correspond to a Gaussian with variance 2.5″? And what if I do cross-validation, like I always do, and find that variance 200 works better for the problem? Was the other person wrong? But how could they have known?
> ...Even ignoring the mode vs. mean issue, I have never met anyone who could tell whether their beliefs were normally distributed vs. Laplace distributed. Have you?
I must have spent too much time in Bayesland because both those strike me as very easy and I often think them! My beliefs usually are Laplace distributed when it comes to things like genetics (it makes me very sad to see GWASes with flat priors), and my Gaussian coefficients are actually a variance of 0.70 (assuming standardized variables w.l.o.g.) as is consistent with field-wide meta-analyses indicating that d>1 is pretty rare.
ratty  ssc  core-rats  tumblr  social  explanation  init  philosophy  bayesian  thinking  probability  stats  frequentist  big-yud  lesswrong  synchrony  similarity  critique  intricacy  shalizi  scitariat  selection  mutation  evolution  priors-posteriors  regularization  bias-variance  gwern  reddit  commentary  GWAS  genetics  regression  spock  nitty-gritty  generalization  epistemic  🤖  rationality  poast  multi  best-practices  methodology  data-science 
august 2017 by nhaliday
A combined analysis of genetically correlated traits identifies 107 loci associated with intelligence | bioRxiv
We apply MTAG to three large GWAS: Sniekers et al (2017) on intelligence, Okbay et al. (2016) on Educational attainment, and Hill et al. (2016) on household income. By combining these three samples our functional sample size increased from 78 308 participants to 147 194. We found 107 independent loci associated with intelligence, implicating 233 genes, using both SNP-based and gene-based GWAS. We find evidence that neurogenesis may explain some of the biological differences in intelligence as well as genes expressed in the synapse and those involved in the regulation of the nervous system.


Finally, using an independent sample of 6 844 individuals we were able to predict 7% of intelligence using SNP data alone.
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july 2017 by nhaliday

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