gwern   216

Β« earlier    

Laws of Tech: Commoditize Your Complement -
> Joel Spolsky in 2002 identified a major pattern in technology business & economics: the pattern of commoditizing your complement, an alternative to vertical integration, where companies seek to secure a chokepoint or quasi-monopoly in products composed of many necessary & sufficient layers by dominating one layer while fostering so much competition in another layer above or below its layer that no competing monopolist can emerge, prices are driven down to marginal costs elsewhere in the stack, total price drops & increases demand, and the majority of the consumer surplus of the final product can be diverted to the quasi-monopolist. A classic example is the commodification of PC hardware by the Microsoft OS monopoly, to the detriment of IBM & benefit of MS. This pattern explains many otherwise odd or apparently self-sabotaging ventures by large tech companies into apparently irrelevant fields, such as the high rate of releasing open-source contributions by many Internet companies or the intrusion of advertising companies into smartphone manufacturing & web browser development & statistical software & fiber-optic networks & municipal WiFi & radio spectrum auctions & DNS (Google): they are pre-emptive attempts to commodify another company elsewhere in the stack, or defenses against it being done to them
economics  business  internet  gwern 
4 days ago by porejide
Notes -
a great long list of ways ordinary life has improved over the decades

riding lawn mowers are affordable & common for rural people
gwern  nice-thinking 
6 weeks ago by mozzarella
Complexity no Bar to AI -
Critics of AI risk suggest diminishing returns to computing (formalized asymptotically) means AI will be weak; this argument relies on a large number of questionable premises and ignoring additional resources, constant factors, and nonlinear returns to small intelligence advantages, and is highly unlikely. (computer science, transhumanism, AI, R)
created: 1 June 2014; modified: 01 Feb 2018; status: finished; confidence: likely; importance: 10
ratty  gwern  analysis  faq  ai  risk  speedometer  intelligence  futurism  cs  computation  complexity  tcs  linear-algebra  nonlinearity  convexity-curvature  average-case  adversarial  article  time-complexity  singularity  iteration-recursion  magnitude  multiplicative  lower-bounds  no-go  performance  hardware  humanity  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  iq  distribution  moments  complement-substitute  hanson  ems  enhancement  parable  detail-architecture  universalism-particularism  neuro  ai-control  environment  climate-change  threat-modeling  security  theory-practice  hacker  academia  realness  crypto  rigorous-crypto  usa  government 
10 weeks ago by nhaliday
Modified "docs/zeo/gwern-zeodata.csv"
gwern  spike 
11 weeks ago by edan
On the Existence of Powerful Natural Languages -
Modified "", Added "docs/culture/"
gwern  spike 
january 2018 by edan
2017 news -
Modified "newsletter/2017/"
gwern  spike 
january 2018 by edan
The Algernon Argument -
Modified "", Modified "Redirects.hs", Deleted "docs/psychology/2005-patrick-handbookpsychopathy.pdf"
gwern  spike 
january 2018 by edan
Flaws in mainstream science and psychology [Dual N-Back FAQ]
A summary of the problems with current scientific research in all aspects.

Also see , "A summary of standard non-Bayesian criticisms of common frequentist statistical practices, with pointers into the academic literature."
research  gwern 
january 2018 by mx_psi
Are Sunk Costs Fallacies? -
But to what extent is the sunk cost fallacy a real fallacy?
Below, I argue the following:
1. sunk costs are probably issues in big organizations
- but maybe not ones that can be helped
2. sunk costs are not issues in animals
3. sunk costs appear to exist in children & adults
- but many apparent instances of the fallacy are better explained as part of a learning strategy
- and there’s little evidence sunk cost-like behavior leads to actual problems in individuals
4. much of what we call sunk cost looks like simple carelessness & thoughtlessness
ratty  gwern  analysis  meta-analysis  faq  biases  rationality  decision-making  decision-theory  economics  behavioral-econ  realness  cost-benefit  learning  wire-guided  marginal  age-generation  aging  industrial-org  organizing  coordination  nature  retention  knowledge  iq  education  tainter  management  government  competition  equilibrium  models  roots  chart 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Added "docs/rl/2017-arulkumaran.pdf", Added "docs/sociology/1940-thorndike-144smallercities.djvu"
gwern  spike 
december 2017 by edan
Modified "images/logo.png"
gwern  spike 
november 2017 by edan

Β« earlier    

related tags

ability-competence  academia  accuracy  acm  adhd  adna  adversarial  advertisement  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  agriculture  ai-control  ai  american-nations  analysis  anglo  anglosphere  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  arbitrage  archaeology  archaics  article  asia  atoms  attention  authoritarianism  autism  automation  average-case  bayesian  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-right  benchmarks  best-practices  bias-variance  biases  big-picture  big-yud  bio  biodet  biohacking  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  bitcoin  blockchain  blowhards  books  bounded-cognition  brain-scan  britain  broad-econ  business  c:**  calculation  cancer  capital  capitalism  cardio  carmack  causation  cause  chart  china  christianity  civil-liberty  class  classification  climate-change  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  commentary  communism  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complexity  composition-decomposition  computability-theory  computation  concentration-of-measure  confounding  conquest-empire  contracts  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  correlation  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  crispr  criticism  critique  crypto  cryptocurrency  cs  cultural-dynamics  culture  curvature  data-science  data  dataset  death  debate  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-learning  deep-materialism  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  detail-architecture  developing-world  developmental  diet  dimensionality  direct-indirect  discipline  discovery  discussion  disease  distributed  distribution  divergence  domestication  done  dropbox  drugs  dysgenics  early-modern  eastern-europe  economics  econotariat  eden  education  effective-altruism  efficiency  egt  embedded-cognition  embeddings  embodied-pack  embodied-street-fighting  embodied  emotion  empirical  ems  endo-exo  endocrine  endogenous-exogenous  engineering  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  environment  environmental-effects  epidemiology  epigenetics  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethanol  eugenics  europe  evidence-based  evolution  expectancy  explanans  explanation  extra-introversion  extrema  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fertility  fiction  finance  fitness  flexibility  flynn  focus  food  foreign-policy  frequentist  frontier  futurism  gallic  galor-like  garett-jones  gelman  gender-diff  gender  gene-drift  gene-flow  generalization  genetic-algorithms  genetic-correlation  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  germanic  gnon  google  gotchas  government  graphical-models  graphs  gray-econ  gregory-clark  growth-econ  gwas  gxe  hacker  hanson  hard-tech  hardware  hari-seldon  hashing  health  healthcare  hetero-advantage  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  hsu  human-capital  humanity  hypothesis-testing  ideas  ideology  idk  iidness  immune  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  info-dynamics  info-foraging  inhibition  init  innovation  institutions  insurance  intelligence  internet  intervention  intricacy  investing  iq  iraq-syria  iron-age  iteration-recursion  kinship  knowledge  labor  language  large-factor  law  learning  lens  lesswrong  letters  life-history  limits  linear-algebra  linearity  links  list  lol  loneliness  longevity  longitudinal  lower-bounds  lsd  machine-learning  magnitude  malaise  malthus  management  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  maxim-gun  measurement  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memory  mena  mendel-randomization  meta-analysis  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metabolic  metabuch  metameta  methodology  microdosing  microfoundations  migration  mindful  minimum-viable  missing-heritability  ml  model-organism  models  modernity  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  monte-carlo  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  mutation  n-back  natural-experiment  nature  neural-networks  neuro-nitgrit  neuro  new-religion  news  nibble  nice-thinking  nihil  nitty-gritty  no-go  nonlinearity  nordic  novelty  null-result  nutrition  obesity  oceans  open-closed  orders  org:anglo  org:edge  org:lite  org:mag  org:nat  org:rec  org:sci  organizing  outliers  p2p  parable  parasites-microbiome  parenting  paternal-age  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  perceptron  performance  personality  pharma  philosophy  piracy  planning  plots  poast  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  pop-diff  pop-structure  popsci  population-genetics  power  pragmatic  prediction  preference-falsification  preprint  priors-posteriors  pro-rata  probability  productivity  programming  project  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  protocol  pseudoe  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-health  qtl  quantitative-qualitative  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  rant  rationality  ratty  realness  realpolitik  recent-selection  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regression  regularization  regularizer  religion  replication  research  retention  retrofit  review  reward-hacking  rhetoric  rhythm  right-wing  rigorous-crypto  risk  ritual  roots  rot  s-factor  s:*  safety  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  science-anxiety  science  scitariat  search  securities  security  selection  self-control  self-report  selfish-gene  sex  shalizi  shipping  sib-study  signal-noise  similarity  singularity  sinosphere  skunkworks  sleep  sleuthin  social-science  social  society  solid-study  spearhead  speculation  speedometer  spike  spock  spreading  ssc  stack-overflow  stagnation  stat-power  state-of-art  statistics  stats  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  study  studying  stylized-facts  success  summary  surgery  survey  synchrony  szabo  tails  tainter  tbi  tcs  teaching  technology  techtariat  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-trenches  theory-practice  thinking  threat-modeling  tidbits  tightness  time-complexity  time-series  tools  toxo-gondii  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  training  transportation  trends  trivia  trust  truth  tumblr  twin-study  twitter  unaffiliated  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  usa  values  variance-components  visualization  visuo  vocab  volo-avolo  war  wealth-of-nations  west-hunter  westminster  wiki  wire-guided  within-group  working-memory  world-war  world  writing  yvain  zeitgeist  🌞  🎩  πŸ‘½  πŸ”¬  πŸ€–  πŸ¦‰ 

Copy this bookmark: