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Laws of Tech: Commoditize Your Complement - Gwern.net
> Joel Spolsky in 2002 identified a major pattern in technology business & economics: the pattern of commoditizing your complement, an alternative to vertical integration, where companies seek to secure a chokepoint or quasi-monopoly in products composed of many necessary & sufficient layers by dominating one layer while fostering so much competition in another layer above or below its layer that no competing monopolist can emerge, prices are driven down to marginal costs elsewhere in the stack, total price drops & increases demand, and the majority of the consumer surplus of the final product can be diverted to the quasi-monopolist. A classic example is the commodification of PC hardware by the Microsoft OS monopoly, to the detriment of IBM & benefit of MS. This pattern explains many otherwise odd or apparently self-sabotaging ventures by large tech companies into apparently irrelevant fields, such as the high rate of releasing open-source contributions by many Internet companies or the intrusion of advertising companies into smartphone manufacturing & web browser development & statistical software & fiber-optic networks & municipal WiFi & radio spectrum auctions & DNS (Google): they are pre-emptive attempts to commodify another company elsewhere in the stack, or defenses against it being done to them
economics  business  internet  gwern 
june 2018 by porejide
Notes - Gwern.net
a great long list of ways ordinary life has improved over the decades

riding lawn mowers are affordable & common for rural people
gwern  nice-thinking 
may 2018 by mozzarella
Complexity no Bar to AI - Gwern.net
Critics of AI risk suggest diminishing returns to computing (formalized asymptotically) means AI will be weak; this argument relies on a large number of questionable premises and ignoring additional resources, constant factors, and nonlinear returns to small intelligence advantages, and is highly unlikely. (computer science, transhumanism, AI, R)
created: 1 June 2014; modified: 01 Feb 2018; status: finished; confidence: likely; importance: 10
ratty  gwern  analysis  faq  ai  risk  speedometer  intelligence  futurism  cs  computation  complexity  tcs  linear-algebra  nonlinearity  convexity-curvature  average-case  adversarial  article  time-complexity  singularity  iteration-recursion  magnitude  multiplicative  lower-bounds  no-go  performance  hardware  humanity  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  iq  distribution  moments  complement-substitute  hanson  ems  enhancement  parable  detail-architecture  universalism-particularism  neuro  ai-control  environment  climate-change  threat-modeling  security  theory-practice  hacker  academia  realness  crypto  rigorous-crypto  usa  government 
april 2018 by nhaliday
www.gwern.net
Modified "docs/zeo/gwern-zeodata.csv"
gwern  spike 
april 2018 by edan
On the Existence of Powerful Natural Languages - Gwern.net
Modified "Language.page", Added "docs/culture/1983-wolfe-thecitadeloftheautarch-thejustman.page"
gwern  spike 
january 2018 by edan
2017 news - Gwern.net
Modified "newsletter/2017/13.page"
gwern  spike 
january 2018 by edan
The Algernon Argument - Gwern.net
Modified "Drug-heuristics.page", Modified "Redirects.hs", Deleted "docs/psychology/2005-patrick-handbookpsychopathy.pdf"
gwern  spike 
january 2018 by edan
Flaws in mainstream science and psychology [Dual N-Back FAQ]
A summary of the problems with current scientific research in all aspects.

---
Also see http://lesswrong.com/lw/g13/against_nhst , "A summary of standard non-Bayesian criticisms of common frequentist statistical practices, with pointers into the academic literature."
research  gwern 
january 2018 by mx_psi
Are Sunk Costs Fallacies? - Gwern.net
But to what extent is the sunk cost fallacy a real fallacy?
Below, I argue the following:
1. sunk costs are probably issues in big organizations
- but maybe not ones that can be helped
2. sunk costs are not issues in animals
3. sunk costs appear to exist in children & adults
- but many apparent instances of the fallacy are better explained as part of a learning strategy
- and there’s little evidence sunk cost-like behavior leads to actual problems in individuals
4. much of what we call sunk cost looks like simple carelessness & thoughtlessness
ratty  gwern  analysis  meta-analysis  faq  biases  rationality  decision-making  decision-theory  economics  behavioral-econ  realness  cost-benefit  learning  wire-guided  marginal  age-generation  aging  industrial-org  organizing  coordination  nature  retention  knowledge  iq  education  tainter  management  government  competition  equilibrium  models  roots  chart 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Spaced-repetition - Gwern.net
Efficient memorization using the spacing effect: literature review of widespread applicability, tips on use & what it's good for.
brain  memory  gwern 
december 2017 by karlicoss
www.gwern.net
Added "docs/rl/2017-arulkumaran.pdf", Added "docs/sociology/1940-thorndike-144smallercities.djvu"
gwern  spike 
december 2017 by edan

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