global_imbalance   40

Iryna Stewen & Mathias Hoffmann - Holes in the Dike: the global savings glut, US house prices & the long shadow of banking deregulation (2015 wp)
Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy with number 112834. -- Abstract -- We explore empirically how capital inflows into the US and financial deregulation within the United States interacted in driving the run-up (and subsequent decline) in US housing prices over the period 1990-2010. To obtain an ex ante measure of financial liberalization, we focus on the history of interstate-banking deregulation during the 1980s, i.e. prior to the large net capital inflows into the US from China and other emerging economies. Our results suggest a long shadow of deregulation: in states that opened their banking markets to out-of-state banks earlier, house prices were more sensitive to capital inflows. We provide evidence that global imbalances were a major positive funding shock for US wide banks: different from local banks, these banks held a geographically diversified portfolio of mortgages which allowed them to tap the global demand for safe assets by issuing private-label safe assets backed by the country-wide US housing market. This, in turn, allowed them to expand mortgage lending and lower interest rates, driving up housing prices. -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
banking  financial_crisis  deregulation  US_economy  downloaded  financial_regulation  global_imbalance  capital_markets  post-Cold_War  financial_system  interstate_banking  savings  house_prices  securitization  financial_innovation  interest_rates  mortgages  international_finance  capital_flows  community_banks  paper  21stC  economic_history  competition-interstate  NBFI 
august 2016 by dunnettreader
Willem Thorbecke - “Exports, Exchange Rates, and the Return on China’s Investments” - Econbrowser - May 2016
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke , Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The…
Instapaper  China  China-economy  industrialization  global_imbalance  economic_growth  supply_chains  exports  trade-policy  trade  global_economy  FX  from instapaper
may 2016 by dunnettreader
Coppola Comment: Debt hysteria - September 30, 2014
The global debt glut described in the Geneva 16 report, and the global saving glut described by Bernanke, are the same thing. The authors note that growth has been slowing in developed countries since 1980. Indeed it has - and during that time capital ownership and indebtedness have been increasing in tandem, as we might expect since they are opposite sides of the same coin. The report cites numerous analyses that show high debt levels - public AND private - tending to impede growth as resources that could have been turned to productive investment are spent on debt service. Secular stagnation is as much a consequence of over-indebtedness as it is of excess capital. -- When the private sector is highly indebted, saving can take the form of paying off debt. If the government runs a surplus, therefore, it impedes deleveraging in the private sector, and may even force some sectors (typically the poor) to increase debt. Reducing the sovereign debt not only reduces saving in the private sector, it comes at the price of continued and possibly rising indebtedness. The report rightly notes that transferring debt from the private to the public sector, as the US has done, isn't deleveraging. But transferring it back again isn't deleveraging either. And as transferring it back again is likely only to be possible with extensive sovereign guarantees (the UK's Help to Buy, for example), whose debt is it really, anyway? Reports such as this, that look on debt as a problem and ignore the associated savings, fail to address the real issue. The fact is that households, corporations and governments like to have savings and are terrified of loss. Writing down the debt in which people invest their savings means that people must lose their savings. THIS is the real "shock, horror". This is what people fear when they worry about a catastrophic debt default. This is what the world went to great lengths to prevent in 2008. The problem is not the debt, it is the savings.
OECD_economies  Evernote  global_economy  risk-systemic  creditors  deleverage  international_political_economy  credit  debtors  debt  risk  leverage  investment  economic_growth  institutional_investors  equity  capital_adequacy  capital_markets  international_finance  equity-corporate  banking  default  pensions  inflation  government_finance  global_imbalance  debt-restructuring  sovereign_debt  emerging_markets  stagnation  savings  property_rights  austerity  interest_rates 
april 2016 by Werderbach
Brad DeLomg - German Economic Thought and the European Crisis - Washington Center for Equitable Growth - July 2017
It is a commonplace among Anglo-Saxon economists that Saxon-Saxon “ordoliberalism” was a post-World War II success only because somebody else–the United… DeLong remarks on his link to the article on why the European Crisis was inevitable given German economic theory -- that the German economists have attributed the country's economic success to ordoliberalism and German virtue when it was based on an incredibly favorable environment and policy postures by the US as global hegemon. Instapaper
Instapaper  economic_history  Germany  international_monetary_system  global_economy  post-WWII  trade-policy  global_imbalance  hegemony  Marshall_Plan  sovereign_debt  export-led  Germany-Eurozone  ordoliberalism  Keynesianism  austerity  budget_deficit  FX  FX-misalignment  Greece-Troika  economic_theory  economic_culture  economic_policy  macroeconomics  from instapaper
july 2015 by dunnettreader
Lars Syll - The Bernake-Summers Imbroglio | RWER April 2015
As no one interested in macroeconomics has failed to notice, Ben Bernanke is having a debate with Larry Summers on what’s behind the slow recovery of growth rates since the financial crisis of 2007. To Bernanke it’s basically a question of a savings glut. To Summers it’s basically a question of a secular decline in the level of investment. To me the debate is actually a non-starter, since they both rely on a loanable funds theory and a Wicksellian notion of a “natural” rate of interest — ideas that have been known to be dead wrong for at least 80 years … Let’s start with the Wicksellian connection and consider what Keynes wrote in General Theory: -- helpful re Keynes' rejection of "natural rate" (in effect there's a different natural rate for each level of employment - income, so it's comparative statics that blows up when savings or investment change, rather than being able to derive new equilibrium natural rate) -- and the problems with loanable funds theory - looks especially at Minsky and Kalecki - credit creation isn't result of increased savings but increased investment. Good snips and links -- saved to Pocket
economic_theory  Instapaper  central_banks  economic_models  monetary_theory  investment  global_imbalance  monetary_policy  Minsky  links  macroeconomics  credit  Keynes  accounting_IDs  financial_system  interest_rate-natural  equilibrium  savings_glut  stagnation  loanable_funds  financial_economics  Kalecki 
may 2015 by Werderbach
Lars Syll - The Bernake-Summers Imbroglio | RWER April 2015
As no one interested in macroeconomics has failed to notice, Ben Bernanke is having a debate with Larry Summers on what’s behind the slow recovery of growth rates since the financial crisis of 2007. To Bernanke it’s basically a question of a savings glut. To Summers it’s basically a question of a secular decline in the level of investment. To me the debate is actually a non-starter, since they both rely on a loanable funds theory and a Wicksellian notion of a “natural” rate of interest — ideas that have been known to be dead wrong for at least 80 years … Let’s start with the Wicksellian connection and consider what Keynes wrote in General Theory: -- helpful re Keynes' rejection of "natural rate" (in effect there's a different natural rate for each level of employment - income, so it's comparative statics that blows up when savings or investment change, rather than being able to derive new equilibrium natural rate) -- and the problems with loanable funds theory - looks especially at Minsky and Kalecki - credit creation isn't result of increased savings but increased investment. Good snips and links -- saved to Pocket
economic_theory  macroeconomics  stagnation  savings_glut  global_imbalance  interest_rate-natural  monetary_policy  monetary_theory  central_banks  credit  financial_system  financial_economics  loanable_funds  investment  accounting_IDs  equilibrium  economic_models  Keynes  Minsky  Kalecki  links  Instapaper 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review by Andrew W. Lo :: SSRN
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- The recent financial crisis has generated many distinct perspectives from various quarters. In this article, I review a diverse set of 21 books on the crisis, 11 written by academics, and 10 written by journalists and one former Treasury Secretary. No single narrative emerges from this broad and often contradictory collection of interpretations, but the sheer variety of conclusions is informative, and underscores the desperate need for the economics profession to establish a single set of facts from which more accurate inferences and narratives can be constructed. -- Pages in PDF File: 41 -- Keywords: Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, Book Review -- downloaded pdf to Note
fraud  financial_crisis  economic_history  financial_system  housing  NBFI  rent-seeking  financial_regulation  financial_economics  21stC  risk_management  global_system  securitization  shadow_banking  debt  bank_runs  capital_flows  bubbles  paper  Minsky  reviews  Glass-Steagal  Great_Recession  financialization  debtors  SSRN  derivatives  banking  banking-universal  global_imbalance  regulation-enforcement  risk-systemic  capital_markets  downloaded  books  institutional_investors  institutional_economics 
april 2015 by Werderbach
Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review by Andrew W. Lo :: SSRN
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) -- The recent financial crisis has generated many distinct perspectives from various quarters. In this article, I review a diverse set of 21 books on the crisis, 11 written by academics, and 10 written by journalists and one former Treasury Secretary. No single narrative emerges from this broad and often contradictory collection of interpretations, but the sheer variety of conclusions is informative, and underscores the desperate need for the economics profession to establish a single set of facts from which more accurate inferences and narratives can be constructed. -- Pages in PDF File: 41 -- Keywords: Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, Book Review -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  reviews  books  economic_history  21stC  Great_Recession  financial_crisis  financial_system  financial_regulation  financialization  capital_markets  banking  NBFI  shadow_banking  regulation-enforcement  rent-seeking  fraud  debt  debtors  housing  securitization  derivatives  bank_runs  banking-universal  Glass-Steagal  risk_management  risk-systemic  financial_economics  global_system  global_imbalance  capital_flows  institutional_investors  institutional_economics  bubbles  Minsky  downloaded 
april 2015 by dunnettreader
Eric Rauchway, review - Martin Wolf, The Shifts and the Shocks (2014) | TLS Jan 2015
... his analysis, which holds that we knew how to avoid, counter and cure these troubles; we have simply – largely out of wilful ignorance and lack of courage – failed to do more than the barest minimum of what was necessary. Governments, banks and international institutions did “just enough, almost too late” to prevent the worst possible result, which would have been a note-for-note replay of the 1930s including a slide into fascism and world war. But having done no more than avoid world-historic catastrophe, we find ourselves mired in a dim morass of our own making, with no sunlit uplands in sight. Wolf offers a persuasive account that is also clear, though he relies on no single factor but several: hence the title of the book. It took both long-term shifts and a series of shocks to cause a crisis of such magnitude. Our world was born in the end of the Cold War. With capitalism triumphant, the victors liberalized their economies and so did the Communist nations, particularly China. Yet all was not well in this brave new world; international finance and trade threatened the stability of smaller, emerging economies, as the crises of the 1990s demonstrated.
financialization  bad_history  shadow  banking  Pocket  risk  global  economy  money  markets  global_imbalance  keynesian  business_influence  bad_economics  books  financial_regulation  liquidity  deregulation  minsky  investment  economic_growth  reviews  fed  Bank_of_England  great_recession  us_politics  leverage  capital_flows  race-to-the-bottom  business  ethics  political_economy  ecb  rents  uk  central_banks  investors  financial  crisis  financial_system  austerity  capital  economic_theory  us_economy  eurozone 
january 2015 by dunnettreader
Bianca De Paoli and Anna Lipinska - Capital Controls: A Normative Analysis | FRBNY Staff Reports Number 600 - February 2013
Countries' concerns about the value of their currency have been studied and documented extensively in the literature. Capital controls can be--and often are--used as a tool to manage exchange rate fluctuations. This paper investigates whether countries can benefit from using such a tool. We develop a welfare-based analysis of whether (or, in fact, how) countries should tax international borrowing. Our results suggest that restricting international capital flows through the use of these taxes can be beneficial for individual countries, although it would limit cross-border pooling of risk. The reason is because, while consumption risk-pooling is important, individual countries also care about domestic output fluctuations. Moreover, the results show that countries decide to restrict the international flow of capital exactly when this flow is crucial to ensure cross-border risk sharing. Our findings point to the possibility of costly "capital control wars" and thus to significant gains from international policy coordination. -- enfin! We're making progress in clearing away the accumulated layers of free market ideology. Not sure about the likelihood of "capital control wars" so have to read the thing to see if their global cross-border risk-pooling ("consumption risk-pooling? ) is a significant "common good" for anybody other than financial institutions or the beneficiaries of windfall surpluses like Saudi petrodollars that need recycling. Downloaded pdf to Note
paper  Fed  international_political_economy  international_finance  global_economy  global_imbalance  global_governance  capital_flows  FX  FX-misalignment  emerging_markets  hot_money  contagion  capital_controls  FDI  debt  macroeconomics  central_banks  FX-rate_management  monetary_policy  downloaded  EF-add 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Coppola Comment: Debt hysteria - September 30, 2014
The global debt glut described in the Geneva 16 report, and the global saving glut described by Bernanke, are the same thing. The authors note that growth has been slowing in developed countries since 1980. Indeed it has - and during that time capital ownership and indebtedness have been increasing in tandem, as we might expect since they are opposite sides of the same coin. The report cites numerous analyses that show high debt levels - public AND private - tending to impede growth as resources that could have been turned to productive investment are spent on debt service. Secular stagnation is as much a consequence of over-indebtedness as it is of excess capital. -- When the private sector is highly indebted, saving can take the form of paying off debt. If the government runs a surplus, therefore, it impedes deleveraging in the private sector, and may even force some sectors (typically the poor) to increase debt. Reducing the sovereign debt not only reduces saving in the private sector, it comes at the price of continued and possibly rising indebtedness. The report rightly notes that transferring debt from the private to the public sector, as the US has done, isn't deleveraging. But transferring it back again isn't deleveraging either. And as transferring it back again is likely only to be possible with extensive sovereign guarantees (the UK's Help to Buy, for example), whose debt is it really, anyway? Reports such as this, that look on debt as a problem and ignore the associated savings, fail to address the real issue. The fact is that households, corporations and governments like to have savings and are terrified of loss. Writing down the debt in which people invest their savings means that people must lose their savings. THIS is the real "shock, horror". This is what people fear when they worry about a catastrophic debt default. This is what the world went to great lengths to prevent in 2008. The problem is not the debt, it is the savings.
global_imbalance  global_economy  international_political_economy  international_finance  savings  investment  institutional_investors  debt  debt-restructuring  debtors  credit  creditors  equity  equity-corporate  sovereign_debt  default  risk  risk-systemic  inflation  austerity  economic_growth  stagnation  OECD_economies  emerging_markets  banking  capital_markets  capital_adequacy  government_finance  leverage  deleverage  property_rights  pensions  interest_rates  Evernote 
october 2014 by dunnettreader
Jonathan E. Leightner - Asia's Financial Crisis, Speculative Bubbles, and Under-Consumption Theory | JSTOR: Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 34, No. 2 (Jun., 2000), pp. 385-392
He looks at Asian high savings rates (and global imbalances) in 1990s and returns to Mummery& Hobson theory of under-consumption from late 19thC -- Mummery, A. F., and J. A. Hobson. The Physiology of Industry: Being an Exposure of Certain Fallacies in Existing Theories of Economics. London: J. Murray, 1889, reprint Fairfield, N.J.: Augustus M. Kelley Publishers -- His doctoral work looks to have focused on comparative growth patterns and importance of balanced growth of social and economic classes in providing consumer demand that pushes new technology and productivity gains -- dangers of inequality and benefits of more equal distribution -- Leightner, Jonathan E. "The Compatibility of Growth and Increased Equality: Evidence from Thailand, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and South Africa." Unpublished part of Ph.D. diss -- short article, didn't download
article  jstor  economic_history  political_economy  1990s  Asian_crisis  international_political_economy  international_finance  financial_crisis  consumer_demand  inequality  savings  global_imbalance  economic_growth  economic_theory  19thC  Victorian  demand-side  development  bubbles  speculative_finance  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Coen Teulings, Richard Baldwin - Secular stagnation: Facts, causes, and cures – a new Vox eBook | vox 10 September 2014
The CEPR Press eBook on secular stagnation has been viewed over 80,000 times since it was published on 15 August 2014. -- Six years after the Crisis and the recovery is still anaemic despite years of zero interest rates. Is ‘secular stagnation’ to blame? Introduction - Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin **--** I. Opening the debate -- 1. Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis’, Laurence H Summers. **--** II. Three issues: Potential growth, effective demand, and sclerosis -- 2. Secular stagnation: A review of the issues, Barry Eichengreen -- 3. The turtle’s progress: Secular stagnation meets the headwinds, Robert J Gordon -- 4 Four observations on secular stagnation, Paul Krugman. -- 5. Secular joblessness, Edward L Glaeser. **--** III. Further on potential growth. -- 6. Secular stagnation? Not in your life - Joel Mokyr. -- 7 Secular stagnation: US hypochondria, European disease?, Nicholas Crafts. **--** IV. Further on effective demand. -- 8. A prolonged period of low real interest rates?, Olivier Blanchard, Davide Furceri and Andrea Pescatori. -- 9. On the role of safe asset shortages in secular stagnation, Ricardo J Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi. -- 10. A model of secular stagnation, Gauti B. Eggertsson and Neil Mehrotra. -- 11. Balance sheet recession is the reason for secular stagnation, Richard C Koo. -- 12. Monetary policy cannot solve secular stagnation alone
Guntram B Wolff. **--** V. Further on sclerosis -- 13. Secular stagnation: A view from the Eurozone, Juan F. Jimeno, Frank Smets and Jonathan Yiangou -- downloaded pdf to Note
books  etexts  kindle-available  economic_history  18thC  19thC  20thC  21stC  economic_theory  economic_growth  Great_Recession  stagnation  international_political_economy  capitalism  financialization  productivity  investment  technology  Labor_markets  unemployment  demand-side  supply-side  infrastructure  welfare_state  sovereign_debt  fiscal_policy  monetary_policy  central_banks  leverage  risk  uncertainty  macroeconomics  macroprudential_policies  international_monetary_system  global_economy  global_imbalance  interest_rates  profit  wages  Eurozone  US_economy  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
Aluisio Gomien De Lima-Campos - Currency Misalignments and Trade: A Path to a Solution :: SSRN June 16, 2014
American University - Washington College of Law -- Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/11 **--** The debate about currency misalignments (CMs) and trade is not new. It was already being discussed in the 1940s. What is new is that the existing mechanisms to deal with CMs at the IMF, under its Article IV, and at the WTO, under its Article XV, have proven to be ineffective. This article seeks to show the problems with these mechanisms, understand the reasons of why so, explore available options to resolve them and suggest a path to a lasting sustainable solution. - downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  international_political_economy  global_governance  international_monetary_system  international_organizations  economic_history  diplomatic_history  IMF  entre_deux_guerres  post-WWII  FX  FX-misalignment  global_imbalance  trade-policy  trade-agreements  capital_markets  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader
R. Michael Gadbaw - Existential Risks to the Global Trading System and the Problem of Currency Intervention as a Case Study :: SSRN June 16, 2014
Institute of International Economic Law, Georgetown University Law Center -- Fourth Biennial Global Conference of the Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) - Society of International Economic Law (SIEL) Working Paper No. 2014/10. *&--** As countries seek to promote growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis, currency intervention has become more prevalent and distortions in exchange rates with their resulting imbalances in trade flows have prompted call for new initiatives to address them, including in the negotiations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Both economic and legal experts have brought new insight into the impact of currency intervention on trade and a fresh legal perspective on the application of the rules in the WTO against measures that frustrate the intent of the GATT/WTO agreements. This paper reviews the underlying legal and policy issues and provides possible language for inclusion in the TPP or TTIP, and eventually in the WTO, that would build on the existing disciplines in the WTO and IMF agreements by authorizing remedial action in the form of safeguard and countervailing duties in response to a finding of actionable currency intervention. -- Number of Pages: 10 -- downloaded pdf to Note
paper  SSRN  international_law  international_economics  law-and-economics  international_political_economy  global_governance  international_monetary_system  international_organizations  IMF  FX  FX-misalignment  WTO  trade-agreements  global_imbalance  trade-policy  Trans-Pacific-Partnership  Transatlantic_Trade_and_InvestmentPartnership  competition  capital_flows  investment-bilateral_treaties  central_banks  downloaded  EF-add 
september 2014 by dunnettreader

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