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6.5 million voted tactically at the 2017 General Election .

Our 1st campaign was called…
GE2017  FBPE  from twitter_favs
11 weeks ago by sabatini
RT : If Sarah Newton has resigned as a junior minister at DWP, that's:
- 24 ministerial resignations since (25 u…
GE2017  from twitter_favs
march 2019 by danbri
Then you need to get rid of who lost and is so consistently behind in tehnpolls that he will…
GE2017  from twitter_favs
march 2019 by sabatini
Nick Timothy is wrong – he is the one who killed Brexit, not Theresa May
I know that looking for self-awareness from Nick Timothy is like looking for moral philosophy from a cow, but hang about: “the week that Brexit was finally killed” was the week of 18 May 2017: when Theresa May launched her manifesto, a politically toxic document that insulted the young, offended the elderly and alienated the middle-aged. The most damaging policy of all was that concerning social care: one authored by Nick Timothy, the object of concern to his co-chief, Fiona Hill, and the then health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

The damage that did to Theresa May’s popularity and to the Conservative campaign was decisive in the election result – which returned a Parliament which will only be able to agree a Norway-type Brexit. That is the clear and inescapable truth of every serious post-mortem of what happened to the Conservative Party in the final weeks of the campaign.

The reason why May can't make this argument personally is that it means returning to the scene of the crime: telling Conservative MPs that not only did her maladroit conduct of the 2017 campaign cost them their majority and the careers of their colleagues and friends, but that it locks them into a Brexit trajectory in which the only available exits are ones that most Conservative MPs fear will be politically disastrous. But if Nick Timothy wants to identify the week that Brexit was “killed”, he should look to the past: and if he wants to know the culprit, he should look in the mirror.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  politics  DUP  Ireland  NorthernIreland  borders  Norway  MayTheresa  ToryParty  ge2017  socialCare  manifesto  TimothyNick  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
december 2018 by petej
General election polling goes geographical: the accuracy and value of constituency-level estimates | British Politics and Policy at LSE
Interesting. Both YouGov and Ashcroft's MRP models did well. Hanretty's bbombed. Nobody picked up the SNP reversion. Q: what does this say about Hanretty's massively consequential leave/remain plot?
hanretty  mrp  statistics  polling  ge2017 
may 2018 by yorksranter
UK Polling Report
the BES data released today – using a random sample and checked against the electoral register – does not find evidence of any increase in turnout among under 25s, thought does find some evidence of an increase in turnout among those between 25 and 44. The boost in youth turnout that people have been using to explain the 2017 elec
polls  turnout  ge2017 
february 2018 by yorksranter

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