gambling   4097

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Dan Davies on Twitter: "Some Friday afternoon thorts, on the "Manski Bounds", a really useful piece of maths which tells you how surprisngly little information you can extract from prices (long boring thread ...). Here's a toy model >"
The price, therefore, never needs to move from 50...

But in this case, the actual average market expectation (from a bimodal distribution with peaks at 49 and 99) is 74! The market price isn't telling you very much at all
manski  markets  micro  economics  gambling  prices 
25 days ago by yorksranter
The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code - Bloomberg
Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.
gambling  statistics  horse  racing 
28 days ago by soobrosa
Why most players lose at poker – the rake | Jonathan Little
It is also not uncommon to see the small stakes cash games being raked for a huge amount in terms of big blinds. Notice at $1/$2, assuming the house takes on average $4 per hand and you play 30 hands per hour, the table is raked $120 per hour. If the best players in the game can hope to win about 12 big blinds ($24) per hour before the rake, if each player pays $120/9 = $13 per hour, the biggest winners in the game are only winning $24 – $13 = $11 per hour. If you are merely a good player and win $10 per hour before the rake, you will lose at the rate of $3 per hour despite having a decent edge over your opponents.

4 weeks ago by maoxian
The Supreme Court Made It Easier For More People To Place Bad Sports Bets | FiveThirtyEight
With the Supreme Court’s landmark gambling decision this week, many more Americans might soon be able to place a legal wager on their favorite sport. So what kind of money are we talking about?
The U.S. casino industry says Americans illegally bet at least $150 billion on sports every year. But it’s hard to measure exactly how much of that money might flow into legal establishments as a result of this decision; underground bookies don’t readily publish their balance sheets. But the casinos in Nevada do, and a closer look into the action taken by sportsbooks over the past few decades gives us a window into how Americans bet on sports — and how well they’re doing.
sports  politics  gambling  SCOTUS  538 
4 weeks ago by rgl7194

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