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Assessing Soviet Economic Performance During the Cold War: A Failure of Intelligence? - Texas National Security Review
Gregory Grossman, a professor of economics at Berkeley and a leading specialist in this area, was particularly prescient. In an extraordinary article published in 1962, Grossman argued that some of the most basic features of the Soviet economy — the absence of a market mechanism, the limited role that money played in economic life and the limits on labor mobility — were increasingly counterproductive
economichistory  soviet  russia  coldwar  forecasting 
yesterday by yorksranter
[1803.06940] The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years
This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
prediction  forecasting 
yesterday by tonyyet
Data from Google Trends
Datasets from Google Trends provided by Google News Team.
dataset  google-trends  analytics  prediction  forecasting 
7 days ago by mjlassila
Four Future Scenarios for the San Francisco Bay Area | SPUR
This report uses a scenario planning process to look at four uncertainties that the Bay Area will contend with over the next 50 years: the economy, housing, transportation and the physical form that growth takes. The four resulting scenarios serve as “myths of the future,” stories that reveal the potential long-term outcomes of today's choices.
scenario-planning  report  future  forecasting 
10 days ago by lavallee
Forecasting: Principles and Practice
This textbook is intended to provide a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and to present enough information about each method for readers to be able to use them sensibly. We don’t attempt to give a thorough discussion of the theoretical details behind each method, although the references at the end of each chapter will fill in many of those details.
ebook  forecasting  statistics 
14 days ago by drmeme

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