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The secret in B.C.'s forests | National Observer
Both the 2017 and 2018 wildfires burned more than 1.2 million hectares of the province, eight times more than the 10-year-average. B.C.’s 2017 fires caused an estimated 190 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. 2018 will be similar.

According to the last annual inventory (quietly released in December 2017) B.C.’s total emissions were about 63 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2015. Uncounted annual emissions from destructive logging were about 47 million tonnes in the last few years. In addition, there were roughly 8 million tonnes annually from slash burning in past years (they disappeared as "under review" in the last data released).

Fire emissions have skyrocketed and we must now expect to add roughly 190 million tonnes to the annual tally, for a yearly total of about 245 million tonnes of uncounted forest emissions (47+8+190). Our suffering forests were only capable of absorbing 28 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2015. The numbers we are able to access demonstrate that we can expect about 217 (47+8+190-28) million tonnes of "uncounted" annual carbon dioxide emissions from B.C.’s forests, once data becomes available.
bc  ghgs  forests  extremeweather 
14 days ago by badeconomist
Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities - ScienceDirect
Sillman et al 2017

Abstract

Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in climate research and have thus been selected as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. In general, the development of an extreme event depends on a favorable initial state, the presence of large-scale drivers, and positive local feedbacks, as well as stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate on the scientific challenges related to large-scale drivers and local-to-regional feedback processes leading to extreme events. A better understanding of the drivers and processes will improve the prediction of extremes and will support process-based evaluation of the representation of weather and climate extremes in climate model simulations. Further, we discuss how to address these challenges by focusing on short-duration (less than three days) and long-duration (weeks to months) extreme events, their underlying mechanisms and approaches for their evaluation and prediction.c
climate_modeling  attribution  extremeweather  climate_science_primer 
11 weeks ago by huntercutting

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