eric-kaufmann   12

Religiosity and Fertility in the United States: The Role of Fertility Intentions
Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), we show that women who report that religion is “very important” in their everyday life have both higher fertility and higher intended fertility than those saying religion is “somewhat important” or “not important.” Factors such as unwanted fertility, age at childbearing, or degree of fertility postponement seem not to contribute to religiosity differentials in fertility. This answer prompts more fundamental questions: what is the nature of this greater “religiosity”? And why do the more religious want more children? We show that those saying religion is more important have more traditional gender and family attitudes and that these attitudinal differences account for a substantial part of the fertility differential. We speculate regarding other contributing causes.

Religion, Religiousness and Fertility in the U.S. and in Europe:

Using Southeast Asian censuses, we show empirically that being Catholic, Buddhist, or Muslim significantly raises fertility, especially for couples with intermediate to high education levels. With these estimates, we identify the parameters of a structural model. Catholicism is strongly pro‐child (increasing total spending on children), followed by Buddhism, whereas Islam is more pro‐birth (redirecting spending from quality to quantity). Pro‐child religions depress growth in its early stages by lowering savings and labor supply. In the later stages of growth, pro‐birth religions impede human capital accumulation.
study  sociology  religion  theos  usa  correlation  fertility  eric-kaufmann  causation  general-survey  demographics  phalanges  intervention  gender  tradition  social-norms  parenting  values  politics  ideology  multi  europe  EU  rot  nihil  data  time-series  distribution  christianity  protestant-catholic  other-xtian  the-great-west-whale  occident  expression-survival  poll  inequality  pro-rata  mediterranean  eastern-europe  wealth  econ-metrics  farmers-and-foragers  buddhism  islam  asia  developing-world  human-capital  investing  developmental  number  quantitative-qualitative  quality  world  natural-experiment  field-study 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Land, history or modernization? Explaining ethnic fractionalization: Ethnic and Racial Studies: Vol 38, No 2
Ethnic fractionalization (EF) is frequently used as an explanatory tool in models of economic development, civil war and public goods provision. However, if EF is endogenous to political and economic change, its utility for further research diminishes. This turns out not to be the case. This paper provides the first comprehensive model of EF as a dependent variable.
study  polisci  sociology  political-econ  economics  broad-econ  diversity  putnam-like  race  concept  conceptual-vocab  definition  realness  eric-kaufmann  roots  database  dataset  robust  endogenous-exogenous  causation  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  tribalism  methodology  world  developing-world  🎩  things  metrics  intricacy  microfoundations 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Is tribalism racist? Antiracism norms and immigration | British Politics and Policy at LSE
"immigration-restrictionism=racism" by demographic and vote

As figure 3 reveals, among White Clinton voters with postgraduate degrees, support for the idea that it’s racist to want reduced immigration for ethnocultural reasons is almost total, at over 91%. By contrast, only 11.2% of Trump voters agree. Minority voters are slightly more likely to back the ‘racist’ interpretation than whites, 45-36, but this 12-point difference is dwarfed by the 62-point gap within White America between Clinton and Trump voters.

There’s no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ America:
- Shadi Hamid
org:edu  news  eric-kaufmann  wonkish  sociology  politics  polisci  elections  poll  values  race  ethnocentrism  identity-politics  migration  usa  2016-election  clinton  trump  polarization  ideology  self-interest  multi  twitter  social  commentary  scitariat  social-norms  correlation  demographics  tribalism  coalitions  class-warfare  westminster  n-factor  patho-altruism  us-them  journos-pundits  interests  gnon 
july 2017 by nhaliday
On Pinkglossianism | Wandering Near Sawtry
Steven Pinker is not wrong to say that some things have got better – or even that some things are getting better. We live longer. We have more food. We have more medicine. We have more free time. We have less chance of dying at another’s hands. My main objection to his arguments is not that some things have got worse as well (family life, for example, or social trust). It is not that he emphasises proportion when scale is more significant (such as with animal suffering). It is the fragility of these peaceful, prosperous conditions.

Antibiotics have made us healthier but antibiotic resistance threatens to plunge us into epidemics. Globalisation has made us richer but is also a powder-keg of cultural unease. Industrialisation has brought material wealth but it is also damaging the environment. Nuclear weapons have averted international conflict but it would only take one error for them to wreak havoc.

At his best, Pinker reminds us of how much we have to treasure, then. At his worst, he is like a co-passenger in a car – pointing out the sunny weather and the beautiful surroundings as it hurtles towards the edge of a cliff.
albion  rhetoric  contrarianism  critique  pinker  peace-violence  domestication  crime  criminology  trends  whiggish-hegelian  optimism  pessimism  cynicism-idealism  multi  news  org:lite  gnon  isteveish  futurism  list  top-n  eric-kaufmann  dysgenics  nihil  nationalism-globalism  nuclear  robust  scale  risk  gnxp  scitariat  faq  modernity  tetlock  the-bones  paleocon  journos-pundits  org:sci 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Levels or changes?: Ethnic context, immigration and the UK Independence party vote
It argues that high levels of established ethnic minorities reduce opposition to immigration and support for UKIP among White Britons. Conversely, more rapid ethnic changes increase opposition to immigration and support for UKIP. Longitudinal data demonstrates that these effects are not produced by self-selection.
study  sociology  politics  polisci  government  elections  britain  eric-kaufmann  causation  endo-exo  migration  diversity  putnam-like  populism  longitudinal  stock-flow  marginal  us-them  identity-politics  flux-stasis  wonkish  phalanges  endogenous-exogenous 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Places and Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Self-Selection and Contextual Effects | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
preferences -> place, not place -> preferences (mostly)
Cosmopolitan immigration attitudes in Europe's large cities: Adaptation or selection:
The myth of London exceptionalism:
London is not as invulnerable to the appeal of UKIP as commonly reported, finds new research from Eric Kaufmann.

Are White British Londoners more accepting of immigration than White British elsewhere? The British Election Study (BES)’s 2015 panel survey asks whether immigration enriches or undermines cultural life. 34.7 per cent of White British outside London say immigration strongly undermines cultural life. But so do 34.4 per cent of White British Londoners. Not much difference there. 44 per cent of White Brits outside London want to leave the EU, but so do 42.3 per cent of White British Londoners. Again, not much in it.


Finally, when we control for a fuller range of demographic and attitudinal characteristics, as in figure 4, London and the South East emerge as significantly more likely than the rest of England and Wales to have voted UKIP in 2014, according to the BES.

Cosmopolitan cities and their country cousins – UK in a changing Europe:
study  sociology  politics  polisci  ideology  elections  data  correlation  null-result  confounding  endo-exo  migration  causation  stylized-facts  selection  britain  urban  polarization  longitudinal  context  intervention  roots  piracy  pdf  class-warfare  multi  eric-kaufmann  brexit  trust  social-capital  race  demographics  org:ngo  summary  values  poll  dropbox  phalanges  geography  wonkish  analysis  variance-components  chart  populism  nationalism-globalism  org:edu  org:anglo  psychology  social-psych  org:mag  news  endogenous-exogenous  preprint  urban-rural  hari-seldon  sentiment 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century | EVOLVING ECONOMICS
Kaufmann’s basic argument is that the higher fertility of fundamentalist religious groups, together with their high rates of retention, is going to shift in the make up of the populations in the West over the next century, profoundly affecting our politics and freedoms.

The important word in that above sentence is fundamentalist. This is not a case of religious groups breeding faster than the irreligious. Fertility levels for many groups are rapidly converging in the West. Muslim family sizes are shrinking. Catholic families are no larger than those of Protestants.

Where the action lies is within each faith. There _the fundamentalists have markedly higher fertility than both the moderates and seculars_. And, if anything, that gap is widening.
trends  sapiens  religion  prediction  contrarianism  demographics  essay  pessimism  econotariat  fertility  dysgenics  protestant-catholic  sociology  demographic-transition  deep-materialism  new-religion  stylized-facts  expression-survival  broad-econ  chart  theos  zeitgeist  rot  the-bones  eric-kaufmann  modernity  hari-seldon 
july 2016 by nhaliday

related tags

2016-election  accelerationism  acm  albion  altruism  analysis  anglosphere  anthropology  art  asia  atoms  authoritarianism  big-peeps  biophysical-econ  brexit  britain  broad-econ  buddhism  causation  characterization  charity  chart  christianity  civil-liberty  civilization  class-warfare  clinton  coalitions  commentary  community  concept  conceptual-vocab  confounding  context  contrarianism  cooperate-defect  coordination  correlation  cost-benefit  crime  criminology  critique  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  culture  cynicism-idealism  data-science  data  database  dataset  deep-materialism  definition  demographic-transition  demographics  developing-world  developmental  discussion  distribution  diversity  domestication  dropbox  duty  dysgenics  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  economics  econotariat  education  elections  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  essay  ethnocentrism  eu  europe  expression-survival  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fertility  field-study  film  flux-stasis  free-riding  futurism  gender-diff  gender  general-survey  geography  gnon  gnxp  government  hari-seldon  history  human-capital  huntington  identity-politics  ideology  incentives  inequality  insight  interdisciplinary  interests  intervention  intricacy  investing  islam  israel  isteveish  journos-pundits  judaism  labor  land  left-wing  list  long-short-run  longitudinal  marginal  markets  media  mediterranean  mena  methodology  metrics  microfoundations  migration  military  models  modernity  mostly-modern  multi  music  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  network-structure  new-religion  news  nihil  nonlinearity  nuclear  null-result  number  occident  optimism  org:anglo  org:edu  org:foreign  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:mat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organizing  other-xtian  paleocon  papers  parenting  patho-altruism  pdf  peace-violence  people  pessimism  phalanges  physics  pinker  piracy  plots  polarization  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  populism  postmortem  power-law  prediction  preprint  pro-rata  probability  profile  protestant-catholic  psychology  public-goodish  putnam-like  quality  quantitative-qualitative  race  realness  religion  rhetoric  right-wing  risk  robust  rock  roots  rot  sapiens  scale  scitariat  selection  self-interest  sentiment  sex  signaling  social-capital  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  social  sociology  statesmen  stochastic-processes  stock-flow  structure  study  stylized-facts  subculture  summary  taxes  tetlock  the-bones  the-great-west-whale  theos  things  time-series  top-n  tradition  trends  tribalism  trump  trust  twitter  urban-rural  urban  us-them  usa  values  variance-components  visualization  wealth  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  wonkish  world  zeitgeist  🌞  🎩 

Copy this bookmark: