effect-size   68

« earlier    

Equivalence Tests: A Practical Primer for t Tests, Correlations, and Meta-Analyses - Daniël Lakens, 2017
Scientists should be able to provide support for the absence of a meaningful effect. Currently, researchers often incorrectly conclude an effect is absent based...
null-findings  effect-size 
october 2018 by dougleigh
Estimation of effect size distribution from genome-wide association studies and implications for future discoveries
We report a set of tools to estimate the number of susceptibility loci and the distribution of their effect sizes for a trait on the basis of discoveries from existing genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We propose statistical power calculations for future GWASs using estimated distributions of effect sizes. Using reported GWAS findings for height, Crohn’s disease and breast, prostate and colorectal (BPC) cancers, we determine that each of these traits is likely to harbor additional loci within the spectrum of low-penetrance common variants. These loci, which can be identified from sufficiently powerful GWASs, together could explain at least 15–20% of the known heritability of these traits. However, for BPC cancers, which have modest familial aggregation, our analysis suggests that risk models based on common variants alone will have modest discriminatory power (63.5% area under curve), even with new discoveries.

later paper:
Distribution of allele frequencies and effect sizes and their interrelationships for common genetic susceptibility variants: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/44/18026.full

Recent discoveries of hundreds of common susceptibility SNPs from genome-wide association studies provide a unique opportunity to examine population genetic models for complex traits. In this report, we investigate distributions of various population genetic parameters and their interrelationships using estimates of allele frequencies and effect-size parameters for about 400 susceptibility SNPs across a spectrum of qualitative and quantitative traits. We calibrate our analysis by statistical power for detection of SNPs to account for overrepresentation of variants with larger effect sizes in currently known SNPs that are expected due to statistical power for discovery. Across all qualitative disease traits, minor alleles conferred “risk” more often than “protection.” Across all traits, an inverse relationship existed between “regression effects” and allele frequencies. Both of these trends were remarkably strong for type I diabetes, a trait that is most likely to be influenced by selection, but were modest for other traits such as human height or late-onset diseases such as type II diabetes and cancers. Across all traits, the estimated effect-size distribution suggested the existence of increasingly large numbers of susceptibility SNPs with decreasingly small effects. For most traits, the set of SNPs with intermediate minor allele frequencies (5–20%) contained an unusually small number of susceptibility loci and explained a relatively small fraction of heritability compared with what would be expected from the distribution of SNPs in the general population. These trends could have several implications for future studies of common and uncommon variants.

...

Relationship Between Allele Frequency and Effect Size. We explored the relationship between allele frequency and effect size in different scales. An inverse relationship between the squared regression coefficient and f(1 − f) was observed consistently across different traits (Fig. 3). For a number of these traits, however, the strengths of these relationships become less pronounced after adjustment for ascertainment due to study power. The strength of the trend, as captured by the slope of the fitted line (Table 2), markedly varies between traits, with an almost 10-fold change between the two extremes of distinct types of traits. After adjustment, the most pronounced trend was seen for type I diabetes and Crohn’s disease among qualitative traits and LDL level among quantitative traits. In exploring the relationship between the frequency of the risk allele and the magnitude of the associated risk coefficient (Fig. S4), we observed a quadratic pattern that indicates increasing risk coefficients as the risk-allele frequency diverges away from 0.50 either toward 0 or toward 1. Thus, it appears that regression coefficients for common susceptibility SNPs increase in magnitude monotonically with decreasing minor-allele frequency, irrespective of whether the minor allele confers risk or protection. However, for some traits, such as type I diabetes, risk alleles were predominantly minor alleles, that is, they had frequencies of less than 0.50.
pdf  nibble  study  article  org:nat  🌞  biodet  genetics  population-genetics  GWAS  QTL  distribution  disease  cancer  stat-power  bioinformatics  magnitude  embodied  prediction  scale  scaling-up  variance-components  multi  missing-heritability  effect-size  regression  correlation  data 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Does Learning to Read Improve Intelligence? A Longitudinal Multivariate Analysis in Identical Twins From Age 7 to 16
Stuart Richie, Bates, Plomin

SEM: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4354297/figure/fig03/

The variance explained by each path in the diagrams included here can be calculated by squaring its path weight. To take one example, reading differences at age 12 in the model shown in Figure​Figure33 explain 7% of intelligence differences at age 16 (.262). However, since our measures are of differences, they are likely to include substantial amounts of noise: Measurement error may produce spurious differences. To remove this error variance, we can take an estimate of the reliability of the measures (generally high, since our measures are normed, standardized tests), which indicates the variance expected purely by the reliability of the measure, and subtract it from the observed variance between twins in our sample. Correcting for reliability in this way, the effect size estimates are somewhat larger; to take the above example, the reliability-corrected effect size of age 12 reading differences on age 16 intelligence differences is around 13% of the “signal” variance. It should be noted that the age 12 reading differences themselves are influenced by many previous paths from both reading and intelligence, as illustrated in Figure​Figure33.

...

The present study provided compelling evidence that improvements in reading ability, themselves caused purely by the nonshared environment, may result in improvements in both verbal and nonverbal cognitive ability, and may thus be a factor increasing cognitive diversity within families (Plomin, 2011). These associations are present at least as early as age 7, and are not—to the extent we were able to test this possibility—driven by differences in reading exposure. Since reading is a potentially remediable ability, these findings have implications for reading instruction: Early remediation of reading problems might not only aid in the growth of literacy, but may also improve more general cognitive abilities that are of critical importance across the life span.

Does Reading Cause Later Intelligence? Accounting for Stability in Models of Change: http://sci-hub.tw/10.1111/cdev.12669
Results from a state–trait model suggest that reported effects of reading ability on later intelligence may be artifacts of previously uncontrolled factors, both environmental in origin and stable during this developmental period, influencing both constructs throughout development.
study  albion  scitariat  spearhead  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  iq  intelligence  eden  language  psych-architecture  longitudinal  twin-study  developmental  environmental-effects  studying  🌞  retrofit  signal-noise  intervention  causation  graphs  graphical-models  flexibility  britain  neuro-nitgrit  effect-size  variance-components  measurement  multi  sequential  time  composition-decomposition  biodet  behavioral-gen  direct-indirect  systematic-ad-hoc  debate  hmm  pdf  piracy  flux-stasis 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Autocratic Rule and Social Capital: Evidence from Imperial China by Melanie Meng Xue, Mark Koyama :: SSRN
This paper studies how autocratic rule affects social capital. Between 1660-1788, individuals in imperial China were persecuted if they were suspected of holding subversive attitudes towards the state. A difference-in-differences approach suggests that these persecutions led to a decline of 38% in social capital, as measured by the number of charitable organizations, in each subsequent decade. Investigating the long-run effect of autocratic rule, we show that persecutions are associated with lower levels of trust, political engagement, and the under provision of local public goods. These results indicate a possible vicious cycle in which autocratic rule becomes self-reinforcing through a permanent decline in social capital.
study  economics  broad-econ  econotariat  history  early-modern  growth-econ  authoritarianism  antidemos  china  asia  sinosphere  orient  n-factor  social-capital  individualism-collectivism  charity  cliometrics  trust  cohesion  political-econ  polisci  public-goodish  correlation  intervention  unintended-consequences  iteration-recursion  cycles  effect-size  path-dependence  🎩  leviathan  endogenous-exogenous  control  branches  pseudoE  slippery-slope  counter-revolution  nascent-state  microfoundations  explanans  the-great-west-whale  occident  madisonian  hari-seldon  law  egalitarianism-hierarchy  local-global  decentralized  the-watchers  noblesse-oblige  benevolence 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Social Animal House: The Economic and Academic Consequences of Fraternity Membership by Jack Mara, Lewis Davis, Stephen Schmidt :: SSRN
We exploit changes in the residential and social environment on campus to identify the economic and academic consequences of fraternity membership at a small Northeastern college. Our estimates suggest that these consequences are large, with fraternity membership lowering student GPA by approximately 0.25 points on the traditional four-point scale, but raising future income by approximately 36%, for those students whose decision about membership is affected by changes in the environment. These results suggest that fraternity membership causally produces large gains in social capital, which more than outweigh its negative effects on human capital for potential members. Alcohol-related behavior does not explain much of the effects of fraternity membership on either the human capital or social capital effects. These findings suggest that college administrators face significant trade-offs when crafting policies related to Greek life on campus.

- III. Methodology has details
- it's an instrumental variable method paper

Table 5: Fraternity Membership and Grades
study  economics  econometrics  natural-experiment  endo-exo  policy  wonkish  higher-ed  long-term  planning  social-capital  human-capital  labor  gender  cohesion  sociology  social-structure  trivia  cocktail  🎩  effect-size  intervention  compensation  money  education  ethanol  usa  northeast  causation  counterfactual  methodology  demographics  age-generation  race  curvature  regression  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  cost-benefit  endogenous-exogenous  branches 
september 2017 by nhaliday
National hiring experiments reveal 2:1 faculty preference for women on STEM tenure track
Here we report five hiring experiments in which faculty evaluated hypothetical female and male applicants, using systematically varied profiles disguising identical scholarship, for assistant professorships in biology, engineering, economics, and psychology. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, men and women faculty members from all four fields preferred female applicants 2:1 over identically qualified males with matching lifestyles (single, married, divorced), with the exception of male economists, who showed no gender preference. Comparing different lifestyles revealed that women preferred divorced mothers to married fathers and that men preferred mothers who took parental leaves to mothers who did not.

Double-blind review favours increased representation of female authors: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534707002704
Double-blind peer review, in which neither author nor reviewer identity are revealed, is rarely practised in ecology or evolution journals. However, in 2001, double-blind review was introduced by the journal Behavioral Ecology. Following this policy change, there was a significant increase in female first-authored papers, a pattern not observed in a very similar journal that provides reviewers with author information. No negative effects could be identified, suggesting that double-blind review should be considered by other journals.

Teaching accreditation exams reveal grading biases favor women in male-dominated disciplines in France: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6298/474
This bias turns from 3 to 5 percentile ranks for men in literature and foreign languages to about 10 percentile ranks for women in math, physics, or philosophy.
study  org:nat  science  meta:science  gender  discrimination  career  progression  planning  long-term  values  academia  field-study  null-result  effect-size  🎓  multi  publishing  intervention  biases 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Out-of-Town Home Buyers and City Welfare by Jack Y Favilukis, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh :: SSRN
An inflow of OOT real estate buyers pushes up prices, rents, and wages. It increases the concentration of young, high-productivity, and wealthy households in the city center (gentrification). When OOT investors buy 10% of the housing stock, city welfare goes down by 0.3% of permanent consumption levels. The average renter suffers a large welfare loss while the average owner gains modestly. We calibrate the model to the New York metro area using data on OOT purchases.The observed increase in OOT purchases is associated with 1.1% higher house prices and a 0.1% welfare loss.
study  economics  growth-econ  econometrics  urban  housing  foreign-policy  usa  wonkish  data  intervention  nyc  🎩  trends  policy  cost-benefit  rent-seeking  effect-size  urban-rural 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Polygyny, Fertility, and Savings
For reasonable parameter values, I find that banning polygyny decreases fertility by 40 percent, increases savings by 70 percent, and increases output per capita by 170 percent.

also interesting:
Table A1 shows that almost all men do marry by age 50 in these countries. Thus the common perception that two wives for some men means no wives for equally many men is wrong. Since the sex ratios in most countries do not deviate much from one, one may wonder how such a high incidence of polygyny is possible. The answer to this puzzle lies in extremely high spousal age gaps coupled with high population growth (Tertilt 2004).7 Table 1 shows that the average age gap at first marriage is almost seven years in highly polygynous countries. Annual population growth in this area is 2.7 percent, which amounts to a 20 percent increase in cohort size over seven years. On average, each man could therefore marry 1.2 wives, or, put differently, 20 percent of the population could marry two wives.8

AFRICAN POLYGAMY: PAST AND PRESENT: http://voxeu.org/article/african-polygamy-past-and-present
https://www.dartmouth.edu/~neudc2012/docs/paper_3.pdf
https://twitter.com/FinchesofDarwin/status/903319029732884481
http://voxeu.org/article/understanding-long-run-effects-africa-s-slave-trades
This has led the authors to conclude that Africa’s history of the slave trades is the primary explanation for why today polygyny is much more prevalent in West Africa than in East Africa.
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  world  developing-world  africa  incentives  social-structure  fertility  time-preference  temperance  anthropology  sociology  econ-productivity  intervention  effect-size  demographics  gender  age-generation  life-history  broad-econ  capitalism  patience  wealth-of-nations  multi  org:ngo  article  econotariat  cliometrics  history  age-of-discovery  roots  society  path-dependence  maps  data  conquest-empire  microfoundations  twitter  social  commentary  scitariat  west-hunter  genetic-load  genetics  population-genetics  🎩 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The Distance Between Mars and Venus: Measuring Global Sex Differences in Personality
something other than Big Five

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20161011-do-men-and-women-really-have-different-personalities
In an email, Del Giudice explained his approach to me with an analogy. “Gender differences in personality are very much like gender differences in facial appearance,” he said. “Each individual trait (nose length, eye size, etc) shows small differences between men and women, but once you put them all together... differences become clear and you can distinguish between male and female faces with more than 95% accuracy.”

Gender Differences in Personality across the Ten Aspects of the Big Five: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3149680/
Replicating previous findings, women reported higher Big Five Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism scores than men. However, more extensive gender differences were found at the level of the aspects, with significant gender differences appearing in both aspects of every Big Five trait. For Extraversion, Openness, and Conscientiousness, the gender differences were found to diverge at the aspect level, rendering them either small or undetectable at the Big Five level.

some moderation by ethnicity and aging
study  psychology  cog-psych  personality  data  gender  gender-diff  psych-architecture  multi  news  org:rec  summary  evopsych  org:anglo  similarity  comparison  dimensionality  effect-size  degrees-of-freedom  race  aging  canada  anglo  self-report  discipline  extra-introversion  pop-diff  chart 
april 2017 by nhaliday
DOES MARRIAGE REDUCE CRIME? A COUNTERFACTUAL APPROACH TO WITHIN-INDIVIDUAL CAUSAL EFFECTS
Although marriage is associated with a plethora of adult outcomes, its causal status remains controversial in the absence of experimental evidence. We address this problem by introducing a counterfactual lifecourse approach that applies inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to yearly longitudinal data on marriage, crime, and shared covariates in a sample of 500 high-risk boys followed prospectively from adolescence to age 32. The data consist of criminal histories and death records for all 500 men plus personal interviews, using a lifehistory calendar, with a stratified subsample of 52 men followed to age 70. These data are linked to an extensive battery of individual and family background measures gathered from childhood to age 17—before entry into marriage. Applying IPTW to multiple specifications that also incorporate extensive time-varying covariates in adulthood, being married is associated with an average reduction of approximately 35 percent in the odds of crime compared to nonmarried states for the same man. These results are robust, supporting the inference that states of marriage causally inhibit crime over the life course.

Does marriage inhibit antisocial behavior?: An examination of selection vs causation via a longitudinal twin design: https://sci-hub.tw/10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2010.159
Mean differences in antisocial behavior across marital status at age 29 years were present even at 17 and 20 years of age, suggesting a selection process. However, the within-pair effect of marriage was significant for MZ twins, such that the married twin engaged in less antisocial behavior following marriage than his unmarried co-twin. Results were equivalent to those in dizygotic twins and persisted when controlling for prior antisocial behavior.

Our findings are generally consistent with prior literature. Previous studies1-4 within the field of criminology have pointed to a causal effect of marriage on desistence from AAB. Perhaps the strongest such study found that the average reduction in crime with entry into marriage was approximately 35%.2 Our own results were very consistent with these findings. At 29 years of age, the Cohen’s d effect size for differences in AAB by marital status was 0.48, which corresponds to slightly more than a 30% reduction in AAB with marriage.

Figure 2. Adult antisocial behavior (AAB) by marital status at 29 years of age.

looks like roughly half the effect is causal
pdf  study  wonkish  sociology  criminology  crime  social-structure  social-capital  counterfactual  causation  endo-exo  longitudinal  intervention  effect-size  gender  dignity  life-history  tradition  endogenous-exogenous  multi  twin-study  biodet  behavioral-gen  piracy  selection  regularizer  data  time  age-generation  chart  branches  institutions 
april 2017 by nhaliday

« earlier    

related tags

a/b  abstraction  academia  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  akrasia  albion  anglo  anova  anthropology  antidemos  article  asia  attention  authoritarianism  aversion  backup  base-rate  bayesian  behavioral-gen  benevolence  best  bias  biases  biodet  bioinformatics  books  bootstrap  bootstraps  bounded-cognition  brain-scan  brain  branches  britain  broad-econ  c:**  calculator  canada  cancer  capitalism  career  causation  cellphone  charity  chart  china  class  cliometrics  cocktail  cog-psych  cohen  cohesion  collaboration  commentary  comparison  compensation  competing-hypotheses  composition-decomposition  concept  confidence-interval  conflict-of-interest  confounding  conquest-empire  contrarianism  control  convexity-curvature  cooking  coordination  correlation  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  counterfactual  creative  crime  criminology  critique  curvature  cycles  data  death  debate  decentralized  decision-making  degrees-of-freedom  demographics  developing-world  developmental  diet  dignity  dimension  dimensionality  direct-indirect  discipline  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  diversity  early-modern  ebm  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden  education  eea  effect  egalitarianism-hierarchy  ego-depletion  elections  electromag  elite  embodied-cognition  embodied-street-fighting  embodied  emotion  empirical  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  environmental-effects  epidemiology  error  esp  eta  ethanol  eu  europe  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  experiment  explanans  extra-introversion  fertility  field-study  fighting  finance  fitness  fitsci  flexibility  flux-stasis  flynn  food  foreign-policy  gedanken  gelman  gender-diff  gender  generalization  genetic-load  genetics  germanic  gotchas  government  graphical-models  graphs  growth-econ  growth  gtd  gwas  gwern  gxe  habit  hari-seldon  health  higher-ed  history  hmm  housing  hsu  huge-data-the-biggest  human-bean  human-capital  human-study  hypochondria  hypotheses  hypothesis-testing  ideas  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  info-dynamics  info-foraging  innovation  input-output  institutions  integrity  intelligence  internet  intervention  ioannidis  iq  israel  iteration-recursion  kinship  labor  language  large-factor  latin-america  law  learning  legacy  leviathan  life-history  links  list  local-global  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  longitudinal  madisonian  magnitude  map-territory  maps  marginal-rev  marginal  marketing  math  measurement  medicine  mena  mental-math  meta-analysis  meta:science  meta:war  metabolic  metabuch  methodology  metrics  micro  microfoundations  missing-heritability  mobility  modeling  money-for-time  money  multi  mutation  n-factor  nascent-state  natural-experiment  network-structure  neuro-nitgrit  neuro  neuroscience  news  nhst  nibble  nitty-gritty  noblesse-oblige  nondimensional  nonlinearity  nordic  northeast  notes  null-findings  null-result  nutrition  nyc  obesity  objektbuch  occident  odds  oly  omega  open-closed  operational  optimate  optimism  org:anglo  org:lite  org:local  org:nat  org:ngo  org:rec  org:sci  orient  oscillation  outliers  p-hacking  p-value  p-values  papers  parenting  paternal-age  path-dependence  patience  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  personality  phalanges  pic  piracy  pkg  planning  plots  poast  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  pop-diff  population-genetics  power-analysis  power  prediction  preprint  prioritizing  procrastination  productivity  progression  pseudoe  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  publication-bias  publishing  qtl  quantitative-qualitative  r  race  ratty  realness  recent-selection  reference  registration  regression  regularizer  rent-seeking  replication  research  retention  retrofit  rhetoric  rhythm  right-wing  roots  s-factor  s:**  sales  sample-size  sample  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  science-anxiety  science  scitariat  selection  self-control  self-report  sequential  serene  sex  sexuality  shift  signal-noise  significance  similarity  sinosphere  sleep  sleuthin  slippery-slope  small-effects  social-capital  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  social  society  sociology  solid-study  spatial  spearhead  speculation  ssc  standardization  stat-power  statistical-power  statistics  stats  street-fighting  stress  study  studying  stylized-facts  success  summary  survey  systematic-ad-hoc  tails  taubes-guyenet  temperance  terrorism  test  testing  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-watchers  things  time-preference  time-use  time  top-n  tradeoffs  tradition  transitions  trends  trivia  trust  twin-study  twitter  type-i-error  type-ii-error  unintended-consequences  units  urban-rural  urban  usa  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  video  virtu  visualisation  visualization  visuo  volo-avolo  war  wealth-of-nations  welfare-state  west-hunter  wiki  wonkish  workflow  working-stiff  world  yvain  🌞  🎓  🎩  🐸  🔬  🦉 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: