economic_stagnation   30

Did Burnham err in nationalising sugar and rice? –
Sep 07, 2019 |Kaieteur News | by Peeping Tom.

Did Forbes Burnham err when he nationalised the commanding heights of the economy and removed foreign involvement from the local financial sector?.....If Forbes Burnham erred, it means that the socialist experiment pursued by the PNC was ill-conceived. The fundamental basis of the socialist experiment was both national ownership and control of the main pillars of the Guyanese economy, namely sugar and bauxite. If it was an error to nationalise, then the socialist experiment was a colossal mistake........In making a decision as to whether Guyana should have nationalised the commanding heights of the economy, Forbes Burnham must have considered the ability of locals to manage the industries. Did Guyana at the time have the capacity to manage the industries? Was it a blunder by Forbes Burnham to have concluded that we did when we did not? Forbes Burnham was never in doubt as to the ability of Guyanese. ......Ownership of the commanding sectors of the economy had to be complemented by the Guyanese managing these enterprises. Burnham believed this and died believing this.
He cannot ever be described as a visionary if he was wrong on this score, because this was the main plank of his economic policies and his political beliefs.......If today, however, the PNCR wishes to concede that Burnham erred when he nationalised the commanding heights of the economy, it should then ask itself whether in a globalised world, where the managerial demands are greater, Guyanese can effectively manage their own affairs, more so considering oil and gas will be a major contributor to economic growth over the next 40 years.
It is posited that if Burnham erred by overestimating the local capacity to manage the bauxite and sugar industries, then is it safe to say that Guyanese will be unable to cope with an oil economy.
economic_development  economic_stagnation  Guyana  Guyanese  history  ineptitude  LFSB  nationalizations  oil_industry  PNC 
september 2019 by jerryking
Where Has All The Skewness Gone? The Decline In High-Growth (Young) Firms In The U.S.
The pace of business dynamism and entrepreneurship in the U.S. has declined over recent decades. We show that the character of that decline changed around 2000. Since 2000 the decline in dynamism and entrepreneurship has been accompanied by a decline in high-growth young firms. Prior research has shown that the sustained contribution of business startups to job creation stems from a relatively small fraction of high-growth young firms. The presence of these high-growth young firms contributes to a highly (positively) skewed firm growth rate distribution. In 1999, a firm at the 90th percentile of the employment growth rate distribution grew about 31 percent faster than the median firm. Moreover, the 90-50 differential was 16 percent larger than the 50-10 differential reflecting the positive skewness of the employment growth rate distribution. We show that the shape of the firm employment growth distribution changes substantially in the post-2000 period. By 2007, the 90-50 differential was only 4 percent larger than the 50-10, and it continued to exhibit a trend decline through 2011. The overall decline reflects a sharp drop in the 90th percentile of the growth rate distribution accounted for by the declining share of young firms and the declining propensity for young firms to be high-growth firms.
economic_stagnation 
february 2016 by ldrutman
Jeffrey Simpson: Slow growth now, no growth later - The Globe and Mail
JEFFREY SIMPSON
Slow growth now, no growth later
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jan. 13,2016

The population is aging. Commodity prices are low. Oil and natural gas prices are hitting rock-bottom. The Canadian dollar has plummeted. Most governments are in deficit, or heading into deficit (read Ottawa). Innovation and the commercialization of research lag that of other countries. Productivity, the country’s long-term bugbear, remains sluggish....all the green traffic signals have turned to yellow or red. Yet this slow-growth economy, which might persist for a long time, is wrapped in a political culture that seems to favour slow or no growth, or seems to think that government infrastructure programs, useful in themselves, will solve the long-run problems.....Everywhere, projects are blocked or delayed, because environmentalists, aboriginal people, non-governmental organizations or even provincial governments oppose them....Many of these blocked or delayed projects with large-scale economic spinoffs are natural resource projects, which the federal government says might be saved with more “robust” oversight. The government is kidding itself in this belief, since the opponents don’t care what the regulatory process is. They oppose development pure, simple and always.

Far beyond natural resource constipation, the contradiction arises between slow growth and the huge desire of citizens for more government services, without higher taxes. Of special concern is Canada’s persistent low productivity, to which no easy answer exists, except that a slow-growth mentality doesn’t help.

...Don Drummond, working with Evan Capeluck, recently explained the challenge in a paper for the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, which looked at productivity trends in all provinces. Projecting these trends forward, they said most provinces and territories will not be able to balance revenue growth with new spending demands (especially for health care) without higher taxes or spending cuts.

Put another way, unless long-term growth can be improved – a trend that will require productivity improvements – Canada is heading for a poorer future with fewer programs and/or higher taxes.
growth  Jeffrey_Simpson  economic_downturn  anti-development  natural_resources  economic_stagnation  megaprojects  productivity  Don_Drummond  slow_growth  low_growth  weak_dollar  signals 
january 2016 by jerryking
My country is what it is because…
JULY 13, 2014 | BY KNEWS | Adam Harris.

Ever since a friend loaned me the book ‘From Third World to First—The Singapore Story: 1965-2000’ I have been looking at my country with a range of emotions. I have felt anger, pity, sorrow, disappointment and shame….Last week, I read a news report prepared by one of my reporters. Using information supplied by the Indian Arrival Committee (IAC) – who culled statistics from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database and some other international sources – it was concluded that Guyana is 254 years behind Singapore….The economic policies of that Asian giant boggled my mind. For one, its leader bought foreign talent when the country had none, but there was a caveat. For every two foreigners there needed to be one Singaporean. There was no attempt to get the foreigner to pay a bribe….The strange thing is that we have examples to follow; instead we have opted to do our own thing. The result is stagnation and a people who merely want to leave the country by any means possible. In this day and age we have skilled Guyanese running to other countries to peddle their ability.
Singapore  Guyana  Guyanese  Lee_Kuan_Yew  books  city-states  disappointment  economic_development  economic_stagnation 
july 2015 by jerryking
Big Business Is Getting Bigger | FiveThirtyEight
The overall revenues of Fortune 500 companies have risen from 58 percent of nominal GDP in 1994 to 73 percent in 2013. While that ratio of big business revenue to GDP has ticked down over the last two years, the upward trend over two decades is clear.
economic_stagnation  inequality 
june 2015 by ldrutman
Don’t Be So Sure the Economy Will Return to Normal - NYTimes.com
If a reset is underway, we might have to accept that public policy cannot reverse it easily. Once unsustainable economic structures begin to fail, it takes a significant improvement to make them viable again. Yet because of the difficulty of making major changes under our current political alignment, most new government policies today are no more than changes at the margin. Perhaps the most basic problem is that it is difficult to be sure when a reset is underway, and it is harder yet to raise public alarm about changes that seem to be gradual and slow.
economic_stagnation 
may 2015 by ldrutman
In the age of disruptive innovation, adaptability is what matters most - The Globe and Mail
May. 13 2015 | The Globe and Mail |by EAMONN PERCY.

William Gibson, who coined the term Cyberspace, “The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet.”

It is not the innovation itself that matters, but its implications during this transition. For the individual, the key will be how to take advantage of these changes, while protecting one’s family, business, career, investments and way of life.....In 2013, a study authored by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McFee at the MIT Sloan School of Management argued that advances in technology are largely behind the sluggish job growth and flattening median incomes over the last 10 to 15 years. They believe that the recent rapid advances in technology are destroying jobs more quickly than they are being created, contributing to the recent stagnation in income and the growth of inequality in the U.S. ... However, around the year 2000, this correlation diverged, with productivity continuing to rise but employment levels stagnating. They call the gap between increasing productivity and employment ‘the Great Decoupling,’ and the authors believe technology is behind it....the best way to both survive and then thrive in this coming transition is simple; embrace it as an Age of Adaptability. There is nothing an individual can do to stop these massive global trends in technology, economics, and demographics, other than adapt. Even reacting to the trends is insufficient, since their scale and velocity are will leave you scrambling to catch up, not mind getting ahead. The only solution is to adapt by becoming a lifelong learner, failing fast if necessary, and learning to get ahead of the changes.

This ability to adapt starts with a mindset that the status quo is not a safe haven, but the place of greatest risk. It means accepting complete responsibility for your destiny, rather than subordinating your well-being to other groups or people. It requires you to take 100 per cent control of your circumstances, particularly if you are responsible for a family, or other people in the form of a business. It entails moving to a state of absolute clarity and awareness of the coming onslaught of change, and then taking a personal leadership role in making incremental, but permanent, changes to your life now.
mindsets  information_overload  disruption  the_Great_Decoupling  Erik_Brynjolfsson  MIT  Andrew_McFee  economic_stagnation  adaptability  innovation  William_Gibson 
may 2015 by jerryking
Tyler Cowen on inequality, Canada, and the state of global superpowers
Eva Salinas | May 1, 2015.

Tyler Cowen is an economist, academic and writer. His popular blog, Marginal Revolution, co-written with Alex Tabarrok, a colleague at George Mason University, turned Cowen into “an economics celebrity,” in the words of one LA Times writer. More recently, Cowen and Tabarrok ventured into the world of online education with their creation of Marginal Revolution University in 2012.
The author of ‘Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation’ was in Toronto earlier this year as the keynote speaker at the University of Toronto’s conference on Inequality.
Tyler_Cowen  economists  income_inequality  Canada  innovation  Silicon_Valley  averages  digital_economy  knowledge_economy  economic_stagnation  clusters  polymaths  the_Great_Decoupling 
may 2015 by jerryking
Economic stagnation is here to stay - The Globe and Mail
LAWRENCE MARTIN
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Apr. 14 2015

The bleak economic predicament hasn’t received much attention. Seems we’re living under an illusion that we’re doing reasonably well, the reason being that until the recent oil price plunge the Conservatives pushed out a lot of feel-good messaging about Canada faring better in the wake of the global financial crisis than other major economies. But doing better than some rivals doesn’t necessarily mean you’re doing well yourself.

Over and above the energy price fall, experts cite a range of causes for the inertia. A major one is productivity. “On that, we’re doing terribly relative to our own historic rate,” said economist Don Drummond, “and we’re doing terrible relative to the rate of almost every developed country.”

Our business class, he added, is neither aggressive nor entrepreneurial, consumer demand is inhibited by high household debt and we have an aging labour force that is only going to grow at about 1 per cent a year. The small increase will come from immigrants, who make lower wages.

“I don’t look for growth to be above 2 per cent on an average basis, I’d say, for the next 10 years,” Mr. Drummond said.
economics  Lawrence_Martin  economic_stagnation  slow_growth  Don_Drummond  productivity  economists  Christopher_Ragan  the_Great_Decoupling 
april 2015 by jerryking
Singapore reminds us of Burnham and the PNC’s colossal failure
AUGUST 23, 2014 | : Kaieteur News| M. Maxwell.

Guyana and Singapore started at fairly similar points of economic development in the early sixties. Guyana had the advantage of far greater resources and a smaller population base. Today, Singapore is a developed nation and economic powerhouse while Guyana paddles around in the gutter economically.
Singapore  Guyana  PNC  economic_development  economic_stagnation  Lee_Kuan_Yew  LFSB 
march 2015 by jerryking
Lawrence H. Summers: ‘There are many ways of burdening our future’ - The Globe and Mail
RUDYARD GRIFFITHS
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Mar. 20 2015

Lawrence Summers: confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus.

If a young person asked you, ‘How do I thrive in a low-growth economy?’ what would your advice be?

It’s never been more important to be comfortable with technology, to be well-educated, to not just know things, but know how to learn, and develop a set of distinctive skills that employers can value. For people who are able to do those things, the combination of technology and global markets will make this a moment of immense opportunity........There are many ways of burdening the future. One is to borrow money – though, given how low interest rates are, those burdens aren't that great. Another is to defer maintenance. Those costs accumulate at a much greater rate, and that's why I think infrastructure investment is so very important. Another way to burden future generations is to scrimp on education. Another way is to fail to invest in basic scientific research. Another way is to saddle them with huge pension liabilities for those who are working, serving the public today. We are doing all those things.
Rudyard_Griffiths  America_in_Decline?  growth  economy  technology  automation  deferred_maintenance  downward_mobility  infrastructure  skills  advice  new_graduates  economic_stagnation  the_Great_Decoupling  low_growth  slow_growth  confidence  economic_stimulus  leaps_of_faith  Larry_Summers 
march 2015 by jerryking
Robots are hurting middle class workers, and education won’t solve the problem, Larry Summers says - The Washington Post
Whether it is robots in manufacturing, automated check-out of retail establishments, e-shopping taking people out of distribution networks, information technology replacing what used to be done by low-level, white-collar managerial and clerical labor, the ability to take blood pressure and perform other medical tests with much less human labor input, automated call-center systems – it appears that technology is permitting very large-scale substitutions.

we need a commitment to running a high-pressure economy. When jobs are scarce, companies have the power. When workers are scarce, they have the power. That's why I've put such emphasis in recent years on overcoming secular stagnation, by promoting demand, especially through public investment.
robots  economic_stagnation 
march 2015 by ldrutman
Why companies are rewarding shareholders instead of investing in the real economy - The Washington Post
Here’s the data at the center of the report: In the 1960s, 40 percent of earnings and borrowing used to go into investment. In the 1980s, that figure fell to less than 10 percent, and hasn’t risen since. Instead of investment, borrowing is now closely correlated with shareholder payouts, which have nearly doubled as a share of corporate assets since the 1980s.
economic_stagnation 
february 2015 by ldrutman

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