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The semiconductor industry and economic growth theory – Soft Machines
"...This long story suggests that the ambition of economics to “endogenise” innovation is a bad idea, because history tells us that the motivations for some of the most significant innovations weren’t economic. To understand innovation in the past, we don’t just need economics, we need to understand politics, history, sociology … and perhaps even natural science and engineering. The corollary of this is that devising policy solely on the basis of our current theories of economic growth is likely to lead to disappointing outcomes. At a time when the remarkable half-century of exponential growth in computing power seems to be coming to an end, it’s more important than ever to learn the right lessons from history."
economic_growth  computers  moores_law  innovation  jones.richard 
january 2019 by cshalizi
Forecasting Instability: The Case of the Arab Spring and the Limitations of Socioeconomic Data | Wilson Center, Feb 8, 2018
“Judging by economic data alone, the revolutions of the 2011 Arab Spring should have never happened. The numbers from the decades before had told a glowing story: the region had been making steady progress toward eliminating extreme poverty, boosting shared prosperity, increasing school enrollment, and reducing hunger, child and maternal mortality,” a World Bank article from 2015 concluded.[iii] Most MENA societies had reached Millennium Development Goals related to poverty reduction and access to infrastructure services prior to 2010 and 2011 and had made important strides in reducing hunger and infant mortality and in increasing school enrollment. Separate World Bank research indicates all countries within the MENA region showed significant educational achievement from 1970 to 2010, and collectively, the rate of growth in educational attainment was faster than other developing regions.[iv]
ArabUprisings  arab_world  Economic_growth  poli-sci  economy 
december 2018 by elizrael
Bruce Campbell: The Great Transition, Lecture 1 of 4 - Ellen McArthur Lectures 2013, Faculty of History, University of Cambridge
See his 2016 book with CUP - The Great Transition: Climate, Disease and Society in the Medieval World - kindle-available
Lecture schedule
Lecture 1 - The 14th century as tipping point: From one socio-ecological status quo to another
Lecture 2 - The enabling environment: The Medieval Solar Maximum and Latin Christendom's high-medieval efflorescence
Lecture 3 - A precarious balance: Mounting economic vulnerability in an era of increasing climatic instability
Lecture 4 - Disease intervenes: The Black Death and the 'Great Transition' to an alternative socio-ecological equilibrium
video  lecture  economic_history  social_history  environmental_history  disease  Black_Death  medieval_history  12thC  13thC  14thC  15thC  Italy  urbanization  foreign_trade  Mongols  Mamluks  spice_trade  Central_Asia  genetics  weather  agriculture  demography  economic_growth  climate-history  climate_change  Little_Ice_Age  Italy-cities  international_finance 
november 2017 by dunnettreader
Chartering the trajectory of the Syrian poultry industry | openDemocracy, Aug 23, 2017
While momentary decline in price offers a short-term reprieve for Syria’s struggling citizens, the future of a staple food source in Syria grows increasingly uncertain.
agriculture  food  Mar15  Economic_growth 
september 2017 by elizrael
Displaced residents return to southern Syria but fear violence is again headed their way – الصوت السوري – The Syrian Voice, june 7, 2017
He told the Syrian Voice that the returnees are coming from regime-held areas of the country, camps for displaced persons along the southern border and the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan.

He noted the economy has “recovered” and that many others are also now repairing damage to their homes.

Abo Mahdi, a restaurant owner in another northern city, Inkhil, says the region has been calm since the beginning of the year and that business has increased significantly in the same period.

“I was preparing about five or six kilograms of shwarma each day [previously], but during the last six months the amount has exceeded 14 kilograms. Requests for grilled chicken have also increased three-fold.”
Daraa  IDPs  ceasefire  refugees  Economic_growth 
june 2017 by elizrael
Can Economic Growth Last? | Do the Math
5% economic growth means any given year will have an economy 5%  larger than the year before.  This leads to exponential behavior, which is what drives the conclusions.  If you object that exponentials are unrealistic, then we’re in agreement.  But such growth is the foundation of our current economic system, so we need to explore the consequences.  If you think we could save ourselves much of the mess by transitioning to linear growth, this indeed dramatically shifts the timeline—but it’s also a death knell for economic growth.

Let’s say we lock in today’s 5% growth and make it linear, so that we increase by a fixed absolute amount every year—not by a fixed fraction of that year’s level.  We would then double in 20 years, and in a century would be five times bigger (as opposed to 132 times bigger under exponential 5% growth).  But after just 20 years, the fractional growth rate is 2.5%, and after a century, it’s 1%.  So linear growth starves the economic beast, and would force us to abandon our current debt-based financial system of interest and loans. This post is all about whether we can maintain our current, exponential trajectory. [JP: we can't]
environmentalism  sustainable_growth  economic_growth  capitalism  late_stage_capitalism 
june 2017 by perich
הכלכלה שלא מציעה הרבה סיבות לאופטימיות - מגזין TheMarker - TheMarker
הצמיחה הכלכלית בעזה ב־2015 לא היתה קשורה לשיפור בייצור, שהיה יכול לסלול את הדרך לפיתוח יציב. היא היתה מרוכזת במגזר הבנייה, וליתר דיוק, בבנייה מחדש של תשתיות שנהרסו במלחמה. גם בגדה המערבית הצמיחה לא היתה בת־קיימא. היא התרכזה במגזר השירותים ובסחר קמעוני וסיטוני והתבססה על צריכה, שקיבלה רוח גבית מהרחבת האשראי לרשות ולעובדי הציבור שלה.

לפי דו"ח של ועידת האו"ם לסחר ופיתוח מהשנה שעברה, שעסק בחקלאות הפלסטינית, בערך 20% מהיצוא הפלסטיני, שהיקפו השנתי כמיליארד דולר, מבוסס על חקלאות – בעיקר על זיתים, שמן זית, ירקות ופרחים. ואולם, החקלאות הפלסטינית לא מצליחה להיות מנוע צמיחה – למרות הביקוש והעלייה בערכו של שמן הזית מאז תחילת שנות ה־2000. העובדה שישראל מפקחת על כל היצוא החקלאי הפלסטיני, ושהסחורות לשווקים האזוריים והגלובליים חייבים לעבור דרך נמליה ודרך אדמה שנמצאת בשליטת ישראל, הופכת את החיוניות, התחרותיות והרווחיות של היצוא החקלאי לתלויות במידה רבה בקובעי המדיניות הישראלים. הענף רחוק מלממש את הפוטנציאל שלו, נטען בדו"ח, כתוצאה מנישול מתמשך של הפלסטינים מאדמות וממקורות מים. זאת גם הסיבה, על פי הדו"ח, לכך שבמונחי גודל מוחלט, חלקה של התפוקה החקלאית התכווץ בשליש בין 1987 ל־2011.
economy  Gaza  West_Bank  trade  Israel  Economic_growth 
february 2017 by elizrael
G. Clark & N. Cummins - Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879 (2015)
Journal of Population Economics
January 2015, Volume 28, Issue 1, pp 3–29
Abstract -- A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth.
Keywords: Fertility transition, Demographic transition, Preindustrial fertility
economic_growth  middle_class  article  19thC  paywall  16thC  British_history  fertility  marriage-age  social_history  18thC  status  economic_history  elites  17thC  demography  marriage  birth_control 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Liberalization and Conflict in the Syrian Economy | SyriaUntold. Dec 22, 2016
Yet Syrian officials have prided themselves for  being able to avoid economic collapse despite five years of conflict and economic sanctions[28]. Syria’s economic resilience is manifested through the survival of a largely functioning state, which continues to provide public services (including bread supplies), despite the deterioration of their geographical outreach and quality. Unlike neighboring and relatively stable Lebanon, Syria has not faced a ‘garbage crisis’ and still manages waste quite effectively. The country has also avoided  defaulting on state salaries, and a collapse in the financial system.

Finally, the Syrian economy began to adapt with the new situation, especially fall 2013, following the Ghutah chemical attack. Government-controlled areas became better linked as the so-called ‘useful Syria’ emerged, linking the coast with Damascus and Syria’s centre with Aleppo.

Businesses relocated from war-torn rural Damascus to the capital[38] and from Aleppo to the coastal region[39], while new businesses started to emerge in safer Sweida and Hama[40]. And even though a manifold of businesses fled to Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and UAE[41], many of them were designed to serve the Syrian market, thus creating complex commercial networks[42].

The prime minister even announced the launch of a new phase in the Syrian economy termed ‘National Partnership’ (ash-Sharakah al-Wataniyyah) to replace the ‘Social Market Economy’. The new phase implied more involvement of the private sector in rebuilding the country’s infrastructure and thus represented a further step towards liberalization.

Nevertheless, with the stumbling of the peace process, this new phase was rendered obsolete and the main focus of the Syrian economic policy was redirected towards stymieing the dramatic depreciation in the value of the Syrian Pound (more than 600 SYP per Dollar in May 2016[51]). Consequently, the government introduced restrictions on import licenses and liquidity supply in the market[52].
economy  inflation  Economic_growth  Mar15  Syria  neo-liberalism  Russia  Iran  foreign_aid 
january 2017 by elizrael
Brad DeLong - link to WP - Robert Allen (2004): Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe
Robert Allen (2004): Progress and Poverty in Early Modern Europe: "At the end of the middle ages, the urban, manufacturing core of Europe was on the Mediterranean with an important offshoot in Flanders... -- downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
improvement  development  urbanization  social_history  Europe-Early_Modern  paper  economic_history  inequality  poverty  progress  downloaded  trade  economic_growth 
january 2017 by dunnettreader
Globalization and Wage Polarization | Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press Journals
"In the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. labor market experienced a remarkable polarization along with fast technological catch-up as Europe and Japan improved their global innovation performance. Is foreign technological convergence an important source of wage polarization? To answer this question, we build a multicountry Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous workers, endogenous skill formation, and occupational choice. We show that convergence produces polarization through business stealing and increasing competition in global innovation races. Quantitative analysis shows that these channels can be important sources of U.S. polarization. Moreover, the model delivers predictions on the U.S. wealth-income ratio consistent with empirical evidence."
globalization  to:NB  inequality  economic_growth  economics 
december 2016 by Werderbach
Globalization and Wage Polarization | Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press Journals
"In the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. labor market experienced a remarkable polarization along with fast technological catch-up as Europe and Japan improved their global innovation performance. Is foreign technological convergence an important source of wage polarization? To answer this question, we build a multicountry Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous workers, endogenous skill formation, and occupational choice. We show that convergence produces polarization through business stealing and increasing competition in global innovation races. Quantitative analysis shows that these channels can be important sources of U.S. polarization. Moreover, the model delivers predictions on the U.S. wealth-income ratio consistent with empirical evidence."
to:NB  economics  inequality  economic_growth  globalization 
december 2016 by cshalizi
Adair Turner - The Skills Delusion | Project Syndicate - Oct 2016
LONDON – Everybody agrees that better education and improved skills, for as many people as possible, is crucial to increasing productivity and living standards…
economic_growth  economic_models  economic_history  inequality  social_mobility  education-higher  education-training  skills  Labor_markets  wages  student_debt  from instapaper
october 2016 by dunnettreader
P Aghion, C Hepburn, A Teytelboym, D Zenghelis - Path dependence, innovation and the economics of climate change (Policy Report 2014) | Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at London School of Economics and Political Science.
The authors of the report – Professor Philippe Aghion (Harvard University), Professor Cameron Hepburn (University of Oxford), Dr Alexander Teytelboym (University of Oxford) and Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE)Innovation is required to transform our fossil-fuelled economy into a clean, low-carbon economy. But economic models of climate change have overlooked the role of innovation. By taking innovation fully into account, a whole new set of policy conclusions are drawn. This report finds that the longer governments wait to promote clean energy innovation, the greater the eventual cost to the environment and the economy. Increased public support for clean innovation should therefore be a priority. Government policies to promote low-carbon innovation may only need to be in place for a limited time because, once a low-carbon pathway has been kick-started, the economy will become ‘locked-in’ to that low-carbon pathway with no further intervention needed. -- downloaded via Air - added to Evernote
paper  downloaded  Evernote  climate  Innovation  green_economy  green_finance  path-dependence  technology  innovation-government-supported  infrastructure  renewables  economic_growth  economic_sociology  economic_policy  energy  energy-markets 
october 2016 by dunnettreader
Acemoglu, Cantoni, Johnson
The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution
Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson
The American Economic Review
Vol. 101, No. 7 (DECEMBER 2011), pp. 3286-3307
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
commerce  urbanization  guilds  elites  republicanism  reform-legal  Rhineland  reform-political  Germany  economic_growth  political_economy  reform-economic  jstor  political_history  civil_code  French_Revolution  rule_of_law  institutional_economics  bourgeoisie  aristocracy  trade  article  downloaded  feudalism  economic_history 
september 2016 by dunnettreader
Paolo Malanima - When did England overtake Italy? Medieval and early modern divergence in prices and wages - European Review of Economic History
When did England overtake Italy? Medieval and early modern divergence in prices and wages PAOLO MALANIMA Institute of Studies on Mediterranean Societies (National Research Council), ISSM-CNR, malanima@issm.cnr.it According to Allen, between 1500 and 1750, a “great divergence” among countries in the level of wages occurred in Europe. Italian real wages were already among the lowest in the late medieval and early modern age. Their relative level diminished even more from the seventeenth century. An analysis of prices and wages in Italy and England does not support this view. Actually, until the beginning of the eighteenth century, Italian real wages were either higher than in England (fourteenth and fifteenth centuries) or more or less equal (sixteenth and seventeenth). It was not until the eighteenth century that England began to overtake Italy. However, the disparity in wages before 1800 was modest. It increased fast from then onwards. Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
labor_history  Italy  15thC  medieval_history  labor_force_structure  competiveness-labor  wages  economic_history  British_history  14thC  economic_growth  downloaded  Renaissance  16thC  Labor_markets  17thC  article  prices  18thC  England 
september 2016 by dunnettreader
Paolo Malanima - The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913 (2013) - European Economic History Review
The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913 PAOLO MALANIMA Institute of Studies on Mediterranean Societies (Naples) Italian National Research Council (CNR), malanima@issm.cnr.it The purpose of the article is to present the statistical reconstruction of a series of per capita output in central–northern Italy between 1300 and 1913. The various phases of both the statistical procedure and the results are presented and discussed. From the Renaissance until the 1880s, when modern growth starts, the curve of per capita GDP is downward bent. Output series together with three robustness tests, are collected in the Appendices.
Downloaded via iPhone to DBOX
productivity  economic_growth  17thC  agriculture  18thC  16thC  Renaissance  economic_history  14thC  stats  urbanization  Italy  GDP  manufacturing  GDP-per_capita  economic_decline  downloaded  article  proto-industry  agriculture-productivity  19thC  commerce  15thC 
september 2016 by dunnettreader

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