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“Recalculating Route”: A Realistic Risk Assessment for GPS
Complete denial of GPS — via kinetic or cyber attack — while maybe technically possible, is implausible as it would connote an enormous, perhaps even apocalyptic, escalation.
GPS  satellite  space  deterrence  strategy 
5 weeks ago by yorksranter
Reasoning with the Greeks - Tocqueville21 : Tocqueville21
In Plato’s Republic, Glaucon may represent Plato thinking in the guise of a rational choice theorist, or a sophist who was able to make the best possible rational choice argument. And, of course, there’s Thucydides. But there’s a difference between those sorts of thinkers and, say, John von Neumann, or any contemporary game theorist. One obvious difference is that Greeks didn’t do the right sort of math; they didn’t show an interest in expressing problems of choice in algebraic form. There was a lot of sophisticated math done in the Greek world, so it’s not impossible that someone back then was connecting Thucydidean thinking and international affairs through mathematical expression, but we don’t have any surviving evidence of that.

There is something lost in trying to do choice theory without algebra, but, arguably, something is gained: the Greeks are not limited in the ways choice theorists are limited. Mathematically, it’s hard to model games with multiple players. The Greeks might not have anything to teach a contemporary game theorist in terms of formalization, but they allow us to say that there may be some advantages to thinking about how choice, preference and belief work out, in terms of generalizable conditions about human behavior. The Greeks may add some complexity to the story because they were not bound by algebra.
strategy  reason  rationality  greece  classics  history  deterrence  gametheory 
8 weeks ago by yorksranter
The Fox Project - Southern Wildlife Ambulance Network
- "A pragmatic approach to conservation."
- Rehabilitating & Fostering Foxes for Release Back Into the Wild
- Caring for 800 Foxes per Year, Including 250 Cubs
- Here to Assist you on fox Deterrence & Nuisance
FOX  charity  rehabilitation  fostering  care  release  deterrence  nuisance  conservation  pragmatic 
11 weeks ago by gdw
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
Nov 2018 Rand report
The study stems from a specific research question: What are the requirements of effective extended deterrence of large-scale military aggression? The focus is therefore on the criteria that tend to distinguish successful from unsuccessful efforts to deter interstate aggression.
rand  deterrence 
december 2018 by strohps
The Role of Anti-Access/Area Denial in Controlling Escalation in Gaza - War on the Rocks
First, Hamas’s success in raising the perceived price for an Israeli offensive operation has moderated the Israeli predisposition for maneuvering warfare and put the country in a defensive posture. Rather than escalating, it has relied on airstrikes, the interception of rockets and mortars, and heightened border security. The defensive postures adopted by both sides have increased the space for escalation control and permitted a dialogue led by the Egyptians for a return to calm.
to_blog  israel  atgw  a2ad  deterrence  strategy  defence 
september 2018 by yorksranter
Meet the scholar challenging the cyber deterrence paradigm
Much U.S. cyber policy is/has been focused on the concept of deterrence, but in a paper coauthored with Fischerkeller and published in May, you argue "deterrence is not a credible strategy for cyberspace." Why not?

Deterrence does not map to the realities of cyberspace as an operational environment. It is an environment of constant action, while the measure of effectiveness of deterrence is the absence of action. We have come to forget how radical a departure deterrence represented as the central organizing principle for national security.


The convergence of expectations about behavior comes from behaving. Right now, there is an increasing degree of cyber aggression. That is becoming an unwanted norm, in my view.

A strategy of cyber persistence, in which security is sought through anticipatory behavior across the full range of operations — resiliency through countering — will better position the U.S. to shape cyberspace toward both more secure contexts and less aggressive behaviors. The form of normalization has a chance to stabilize over time.

Applying a legacy framework that defines success as the absence of action, deterrence, in an environment of constant action will never advance our cybersecurity, which ultimately has to be our goal.
cybersecurity  strategy  policy  deterrence  resiliency 
may 2018 by bwiese
RT : If you want to enhance it is useful to publicly suggest what you might use a capability for.

On the le…
deterrence  from twitter
march 2018 by jmkorhonen
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios
Would you endorse choosing policy to max the expected duration of civilization, at least as a good first approximation?
Can anyone suggest a different first approximation that would get more votes?
How useful would it be to agree on a relatively-simple first-approximation observable-after-the-fact metric for what we want from the future universe, such as total life years experienced, or civilization duration?

We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction:
An Oxford philosopher argues that we are not adequately accounting for technology's risks—but his solution to the problem is not for Luddites.

Anderson: You have argued that we underrate existential risks because of a particular kind of bias called observation selection effect. Can you explain a bit more about that?

Bostrom: The idea of an observation selection effect is maybe best explained by first considering the simpler concept of a selection effect. Let's say you're trying to estimate how large the largest fish in a given pond is, and you use a net to catch a hundred fish and the biggest fish you find is three inches long. You might be tempted to infer that the biggest fish in this pond is not much bigger than three inches, because you've caught a hundred of them and none of them are bigger than three inches. But if it turns out that your net could only catch fish up to a certain length, then the measuring instrument that you used would introduce a selection effect: it would only select from a subset of the domain you were trying to sample.

Now that's a kind of standard fact of statistics, and there are methods for trying to correct for it and you obviously have to take that into account when considering the fish distribution in your pond. An observation selection effect is a selection effect introduced not by limitations in our measurement instrument, but rather by the fact that all observations require the existence of an observer. This becomes important, for instance, in evolutionary biology. For instance, we know that intelligent life evolved on Earth. Naively, one might think that this piece of evidence suggests that life is likely to evolve on most Earth-like planets. But that would be to overlook an observation selection effect. For no matter how small the proportion of all Earth-like planets that evolve intelligent life, we will find ourselves on a planet that did. Our data point-that intelligent life arose on our planet-is predicted equally well by the hypothesis that intelligent life is very improbable even on Earth-like planets as by the hypothesis that intelligent life is highly probable on Earth-like planets. When it comes to human extinction and existential risk, there are certain controversial ways that observation selection effects might be relevant.
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march 2018 by nhaliday
Fermi paradox - Wikipedia
Rare Earth hypothesis:
Fine-tuned Universe:
something to keep in mind:
Puddle theory is a term coined by Douglas Adams to satirize arguments that the universe is made for man.[54][55] As stated in Adams' book The Salmon of Doubt:[56]
Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, “This is an interesting world I find myself in, an interesting hole I find myself in, fits me rather neatly, doesn't it? In fact, it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!” This is such a powerful idea that as the sun rises in the sky and the air heats up and as, gradually, the puddle gets smaller and smaller, it's still frantically hanging on to the notion that everything's going to be all right, because this World was meant to have him in it, was built to have him in it; so the moment he disappears catches him rather by surprise. I think this may be something we need to be on the watch out for.
article  concept  paradox  wiki  reference  fermi  anthropic  space  xenobio  roots  speculation  ideas  risk  threat-modeling  civilization  nihil  🔬  deep-materialism  new-religion  futurism  frontier  technology  communication  simulation  intelligence  eden  war  nuclear  deterrence  identity  questions  multi  explanans  physics  theos  philosophy  religion  chemistry  bio  hmm  idk  degrees-of-freedom  lol  troll  existence 
january 2018 by nhaliday
National Defense Strategy of the United States of America
National Defense Strategy released with clear priority: Stay ahead of Russia and China:
A saner allocation of US 'defense' funds would be something like 10% nuclear trident, 10% border patrol, & spend the rest innoculating against cyber & biological attacks.
and since the latter 2 are hopeless, just refund 80% of the defense budget.
Monopoly on force at sea is arguably worthwhile.
Given the value of the US market to any would-be adversary, id be willing to roll the dice & let it ride.
subs are part of the triad, surface ships are sitting ducks this day and age
But nobody does sink them, precisely because of the monopoly on force. It's a path-dependent equilibirum where (for now) no other actor can reap the benefits of destabilizing the monopoly, and we're probably drastically underestimating the ramifications if/when it goes away.
can lethal autonomous weapon systems get some
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january 2018 by nhaliday
Nuclear deterrence is more ideology than theory | Aeon Essays
The above describes only some of the inadequacies and outright dangers posed by deterrence, the doctrinal fulcrum that manipulates nuclear hardware, software, deployments, accumulation and escalation. Undoing the ideology – verging on theology – of deterrence won’t be easy, but neither is living under the threat of worldwide annihilation. As the poet T S Eliot once wrote, unless you are in over your head, how do you know how tall you are? And when it comes to nuclear deterrence, we’re all in over our heads.
nuclearweapons  deterrence  conflict  internationalrelations  review  critique  Aeon  2018 
january 2018 by inspiral
When Deterrence Simply Will Not Work: The Case of Job
To illustrate both what deterrence means at the most fundamental level and for just how long intellectually engaged people have been thinking about how deterrence functions, we turn to what many moderns might consider an unlikely source: the biblical Book of Job. Job comes to modern readers as one of the Ketuvim (כְּתוּבִים), the so-called “Writings” or “Hagiographa”—the third and final section of the Tanakh (תַּנַ”ךְ, what many non-Jewish readers refer to as the Old Testament). It is the account of a “perfect and upright” man from whom God allows Satan to take away everything of apparent value to him—his substantial wealth and livelihood, his health, his children, and the love and encouragement of those around him—in short, every external thing that one could possibly value. The only thing Satan is not allowed to take from Job was his life. Satan is certain that while Job’s righteousness is rare among men, even he canbe deterred from continued faith in God. Satan is wrong.

The following excerpts from the Book of Job[*] provide thoughtful national security policy practitioners with occasion to reflect upon the question, “Just how many ‘Jobs’ are there—whether individuals or states—in the world today?” Whatever the precise answer, Satan seems to have been right about one thing: There aren’t very many. Almost every individual person or collectivity of persons has something the loss of which is so unacceptable that the individual or collectivity will modify behavior rather than risk its loss. To discover that thing is to discover that upon which all meaningful deterrence efforts must focus.


Not one to give up, Satan co-opts Job’s wife to alter her husband’s cost-benefit analysis. She mocks him, “Dost thou still retain thine integrity? Curse God, and die.” But Job will not be moved, “What?”, he asks, “Shall we receive good at the hand of God, and shall we not receive evil?” He cannot be persuaded to curse the Lord.

Next, up step three friends, Eliphaz, Bildad, and Zophar, who seek to comfort Job by trying to persuade him that his afflictions are the result of evil he has done and must acknowledge because, by their account, God would never afflict a righteous man with the terrible suffering and loss that has come to Job. He simply must have sinned. That is the only possible explanation for his wretched condition. (How “comforting” these friendly observations actually are to Job is left for the reader to ponder.)

Job, however, simply will not assent to the proposition that his misery is the natural—perhaps inevitable—result of wrongdoing on his part. He knows in his heart that he has been a righteous and upright man. Indeed, Job, who has lost practically everything except his life, continues to be unwilling to surrender the one thing over which he still has control: his integrity. In this respect, there are two things Job simply will not compromise: his insistence that he has done nothing wrong and his insistence that he must not foolishly blame God for his suffering. His unfailing faith is characterized by such exclamations as, “Though he slay me, yet will I trust in him.”

Job “demands” (i.e., earnestly seeks) from God an explanation for why the afflictions have occurred without any wrongdoing being committed. When God responds with a challenge to Job’s prerogative to demand such a thing, Job “repents” (which implies not only sorrow or regret but also an actual turn in direction or a change of one’s mind) and acknowledges his subservience before his Creator. No matter what Satan throws at him, no matter how the enemy tries to alter his behavior, Job will not denounce God nor cease to follow him. In the end, God rewards Job for his integrity, chastises Job’s friends for their insistence that his suffering could only have been the result of his wrongdoing, and blesses him with greater abundance than anything he had prior to Satan’s intervention.

However, it is not this happy ending that has principal claim on the attention of national security practitioners. Rather, it is Job’s response to not only the threat of loss but, indeed, to the actual loss of practically everything he has. This is so for several reasons.

First, it illustrates the principle that in order for deterrence to work, the one seeking to deter another must discover and put at risk the thing that the other essentially values. If one can hold at risk that thing which the other essentially values, the other can be deterred. If not, the other cannot be deterred.

It also strongly suggests that it’s the risk to value that deters. The fear of losing things valued is often harder to endure than actually losing them. (Moreover, deterrence presumably only works so long as one’s adversary retains hope that he can preserve what he values.)

It also demonstrates that it is likely easier to deter an adversary from a particular action rather than to coerce an adversary to a particular behavior.

Second, it invites students of national security studies to ponder the following questions about Job. What is Job willing and not willing to give up? Alternatively put, what does Job truly value? What are the limits of the other to influence Job’s decisions and conduct?

Finally, it provides a point de départ to extrapolate from Job’s experiences and reflect upon contemporary problems of national security, such as the following:

+ If X (i.e., state or otherwise) believes it is effectively “deterring” Y but does not know what Y essentially values, is X actually deterring Y at all?

+ If X correctly identifies that which Y essentially values, does the deterrence method X has chosen effectively threaten Y with the loss of that essentially valued thing?

+ If X correctly identifies that which Y essentially values but is unable to effectively threaten Y with the loss of that thing, what other security options does X have?
IR  Religion  deterrence  Job  Political.Philosophy 
december 2017 by lukemperez
What Causes War: Appeasement, Weakness Postpone War, Invite Future Aggression | National Review
As tensions mount with North Korea, fears arise that President Trump’s tit-for-tat bellicose rhetoric with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un might lead to miscalculations — and thus an accidental war that could have been prevented.
trump  war  korea  deterrence 
october 2017 by Jswindle
The PLA and China's Rejuvenation National Security and Military Strategies, Deterrence Concepts, and Combat Capabilities
Dec 2016 Rand report
The information in this report assesses the perceptions of China's leaders on many critical issues — from their views of the international security environment and domestic and international threats, to their approaches to crisis management and escalation control, to the development of military capabilities and deterrence concepts. As this study indicates, these Chinese assessments are not static; they evolve as China's standing in the world increases and its national interests grow, and the conclusions Chinese planners draw from such assessments also change. The necessity of continuing to monitor and analyze emerging literature and assessments on concepts discussed in this report — particularly those with broader implications for current events, such as China's defense of territorial claims in the South China Sea and prospects for crisis management — will be crucial.
rand  china  military  strategy  deterrence  security 
october 2017 by strohps

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