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400 care home operators collapse in five years as cuts bite | Society | The Guardian
BDO’s research said care homes, already struggling with debts racked up before the credit crunch, had “suffered as a result of the reduced spending by central government”.

It warned that further pain lay ahead, highlighting research from the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services showing that councils had £700m of social care cuts planned in 2018-19, despite growing demand.
UK  Austerity  social  care  adult  sickcare  elderly  demographic  bubble  NHS  Council  Rentnerrepublik 
14 days ago by asterisk2a
China’s demographic danger grows as births fall far below forecast • WSJ
<p>Chinese leaders in 2016 scrapped the decades-old one-child policy after economists warned it was creating a demographic time bomb for China, contributing to a shrinking workforce and a rapidly aging population.

New data show the reversal isn’t having the anticipated impact. The number of newborns in China dropped to 15.23 million in 2018, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s two million less than 2017 and 30% below the median official forecast of more than 21 million.

It was also the lowest level of births since 1961, when millions were struggling to survive during China’s Great Famine. Newborns eventually become workers, making them essential to economic growth in the long run.

“The demographic outlook does appear to be deteriorating faster than officials had expected,” analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a recent research note.

That’s making it harder for officials to lower taxes much to stimulate growth, since doing so could make it tougher to shore up underfunded pension programs. It’s also making it harder to encourage consumers to boost spending, as more people worry over health and retirement costs.

The demographic outlook is fueling fears China could grow old before it gets rich, leaving it with too few workers to cover the cost of its aging population. That could stoke economic troubles that far outlast turbulence from trade battles this year.</p>

China's median age is about to cross over the US's (at 38 years old) and start catching up with Japan's 48 years old. The proportion over 65 compared to those of working age is forecast to pass the US in 2040, though still be behind Japan.
demographic  china 
6 weeks ago by charlesarthur
At the heart of this NHS cash boost lies a dishonesty: tax | Rafael Behr | Opinion | The Guardian
Theresa May’s boast that extra funding won’t involve tax rises should set alarm bells ringing [...] Stevens knows that £20.5bn is a lot, yet not enough. It repairs some of the damage inflicted by austerity – a problem denied for years by ministers who insisted the NHS budget was ring-fenced. That was true in a narrow technical sense. But rising costs and a displaced burden from deep cuts elsewhere imposed an unbearable strain on hospitals and GPs. [...] Phased in over five years, the £20.5bn uplift temporarily restores health spending to something like its pre-austerity trajectory. But it is unclear where the next £20.5bn comes from. Or the £20.5bn after that. The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that budgets should rise by 3.3% over 15 years to keep services at their current level. If the ambition is to make them better, the annual increase would be more like 5%, taking health spending to around 10% of national income. That is the level maintained by countries like the Netherlands and Sweden. May has no plan to keep Britain in that league. [...] The dishonest part is making it sound like a self-sustaining process when it is a one-off event.
NHS  Theresa  May  Conservative  Austerity  sickcare  demand  long-term  plan  demographic  bubble  chronic  sick  population  staff  staffing  crisis  Cancer  diabetes  CVD  obesity  ageing  premature 
11 weeks ago by asterisk2a
How Generation X Ruined the World - VICE
Millenials have been accused of being oblivious to the real shit sandwich the 21st century is shaping up to be. But how can we do otherwise? If the Gen X cultural expression of the 90s taught us anything, it is that not giving a fuck is the only truly meaningful personal act. Don’t get me wrong: not giving a fuck is always cool, but it isn’t a political statement, and there’s nothing constructive about it. Stop believing there ever was. Ethan Hawke’s character in Reality Bites is not an outsider hero. He’s just a privileged white dude living in the best decade this part of the world has ever seen.

So, yeah. We get it Gen X. Evian is naïve spelled backwards. Thanks.
generation  demographic 
december 2018 by fallond
£20.5bn NHS funding boost not enough to improve care – study | Society | The Guardian
Ageing population and hospital deficits will take up much of new funds, thinktank says
report by the IPPR thinktank and former senior NHS staff says.
NHS  ageing  population  chronic  sick  premature  Rentnerrepublik  demographic  bubble  sickcare  demand 
december 2018 by asterisk2a
Use of internet, social media, digital devices plateaus in US • Pew Research Center
<p>The shares of US adults who say they use the internet, use social media, own a smartphone or own a tablet computer are all nearly identical to the shares who said so in 2016. The share who say they have broadband internet service at home currently stands at 65% – nearly identical to the 67% who said this in a survey conducted in summer 2015. And when it comes to desktop or laptop ownership, there has actually been a small dip in the overall numbers over the last two years – from 78% in 2016 to 73% today.

<img src="" width="100%" />

A contributing factor behind this slowing growth is that parts of the population have reached near-saturation levels of adoption of some technologies. Put simply, in some instances there just aren’t many non-users left. For example, nine-in-ten or more adults younger than 50 say they go online or own a smartphone. And a similar share of those in higher-income households have laptops or desktops.</p>

Notice that dip in desktop/laptop use, while tablet use inched up. Although I suspect that tablets plus smartphones have consumed that gap in PC use.

If that's continued in two years' time, it'll be a clear trend. Check back in 2020!
pc  tablet  smartphone  us  demographic 
september 2018 by charlesarthur
(10204) Are We Destined for a Slow Growth Future? - YouTube
- shortage on the demand side. but demand can't be more leveraged and borrowed. ALL economic indicators point against a thriving of the UK bottom up (from household finances, are stretched thinly) //&! Gross wages lower than 10 years ago! Lost decade of earnings. In real terms people are NOT better off.
secular  stagnation  Brexit  household  debt  consumer  UK  USA  loan  GFC  recovery  Productivity  output  gap  economic  history  leverage  underinvestment  banking  property  bubble  housing  demographic  immigration  working  poor  poverty  Austerity  Trickle-down  Gesellschaft  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  inequality  social  mobility  income  Society  inflation  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  debt-servicing  OECD  IMF  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Fed  globalisation  globalization  trap  credit  card  creditcard  creditcrunch  student  auto 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
Bowel cancer screening could shed light on other conditions - BBC News
The 2,714 patients with a positive result had a 58% higher risk of death from other conditions.

Having a positive result was significantly associated with increased risk of dying from circulatory disease, respiratory disease, digestive diseases excluding bowel cancer, neuropsychological disease, blood and endocrine disease.
chronic  sick  population  sickcare  demand  NHS  Obesity  Cancer  CVD  public  health  demographic  bubble  rationing  diabetes  overweight  inflammation 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
New leadership, same old problems - BBC News
new money won't be seen till next year, new winter crisis is coming for sure, and the wait lists will get even longer. - Health think tanks argue that the 3.4% is really only enough to cope with rising demand, never mind improving care.

Hospital sources point out that the new money won't come to the NHS until next year.

Nothing extra so far has been allocated for this winter and the intense pressure seen in the first months of this year is likely to be repeated.

There is every chance that waiting lists for routine surgery will get longer and accident and emergency performance won't get better.

Even with the £6bn cash boost next year, there are warnings that there won't be any rapid improvement. His instincts will be to tell the service to get on with job with the money it has. But that conviction will be tested in the depths of winter if hospitals are struggling to cope. [...] Also plays with part-privatisation of Elderly Care - asking people to take out a private insurance ... or lose their home ...
Matt  Hancock  Jeremy  Hunt  Simon  Stevens  NHS  Austerity  sick  care  demand  chronic  population  ageing  premature  demographic  bubble  CVD  diabetes  Cancer  Council  Social  adult  elderly  rationing  mental  health  Privatisation 
july 2018 by asterisk2a

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