decision_making   1283

« earlier    

Trump call with Turkish leader led to US pullout from Syria - AP, Dec 21, 2018
President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from Syria was made hastily, without consulting his national security team or allies, and over strong objections from virtually everyone involved in the fight against the Islamic State group, according to U.S. and Turkish officials.

Pompeo, Mattis and other members of the national security team prepared a list of talking points for Trump to tell Erdogan to back off, the officials said.

But the officials said Trump, who had previously accepted such advice and convinced the Turkish leader not to attack the Kurds and put U.S. troops at risk, ignored the script. Instead, the president sided with Erdogan.

In the following days, Trump remained unmoved by those scrambling to convince him to reverse or at least delay the decision to give the military and Kurdish forces time to prepare for an orderly withdrawal.

“The talking points were very firm,” said one of the officials, explaining that Trump was advised to clearly oppose a Turkish incursion into northern Syria and suggest the U.S. and Turkey work together to address security concerns. “Everybody said push back and try to offer (Turkey) something that’s a small win, possibly holding territory on the border, something like that.”

Erdogan, though, quickly put Trump on the defensive, reminding him that he had repeatedly said the only reason for U.S. troops to be in Syria was to defeat the Islamic State and that the group had been 99 percent defeated. “Why are you still there?” the second official said Erdogan asked Trump, telling him that the Turks could deal with the remaining IS militants.

With Erdogan on the line, Trump asked national security adviser John Bolton, who was listening in, why American troops remained in Syria if what the Turkish president was saying was true, according to the officials. Erdogan’s point, Bolton was forced to admit, had been backed up by Mattis, Pompeo, U.S. special envoy for Syria Jim Jeffrey and special envoy for the anti-ISIS coalition Brett McGurk, who have said that IS retains only 1 percent of its territory, the officials said.

Bolton stressed, however, that the entire national security team agreed that victory over IS had to be enduring, which means more than taking away its territory.

Trump was not dissuaded, according to the officials, who said the president quickly capitulated by pledging to withdraw, shocking both Bolton and Erdogan.

Caught off guard, Erdogan cautioned Trump against a hasty withdrawal, according to one official
TrumpAdministration  Trump  decision_making  Bolton  Turkey  ISIS  Mar15  withdrawal  unnamed_official 
24 days ago by elizrael
Medical Professor Tried to Help Patients Understand Their Odds - WSJ
By James R. Hagerty
Dec. 14, 2018

Together with H. Gilbert Welch, Dr. Schwartz and Dr. Woloshin wrote a 2008 book, “Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics.” They also worked with the National Cancer Institute to create the Know Your Chances website..... Lisa Schwartz [worked towards]... helping people make informed decisions about whether to try a medication or treatment.

She devoted her career to making patients smarter about assessing risks and advising doctors and journalists about how to communicate more clearly on medical issues.... She and her husband, Dr. Steven Woloshin, also coached people on how to assess odds. If a drug was found to reduce the risks of a disease by 80%, that may sound persuasive. But if those chances were only 2% to begin with, the difference made by the drug might not be sufficient to justify the side effects.....Dr. Schwartz taught junior faculty members and post-doctoral students to write and speak more effectively. Clear writing, she often said, required clear thinking. "Our goal has been to give people a realistic sense of what is known and what is not known—how hopeful or worried they should be.”
books  decision_making  medical_communication  obituaries  physicians  plain_English  probabilities  risk-assessment  women  unknowns  doctor's_visits  doctors 
4 weeks ago by jerryking
Get to "Yes" Using 5-Finger Consensus | Leadership Strategies
Reach agreement within your group more effectively with proven facilitation methods to build consensus. Here's how to facilitate a meeting with consensus.
facilitation  meetings  decision_making  leadership 
7 weeks ago by enslrhs82
‘Farsighted’ Review: How to Make Up Your Mind - WSJ
14 COMMENTS
By David A. Shaywitz
Sept. 11, 2018

..mission planners first systematically widened their thinking to define their options as broadly as possible, seeking a “full-spectrum appraisal of the state of things and a comprehensive list of potential choices.” Then they coned down the alternatives by playing out multiple scenarios, exploring all the ways the mission could go wrong........When faced with complex choices we tend to frame problems in a narrow fashion. .......seek participation from as broad and diverse a group as possible.....a diversity of viewpoints isn’t enough. Citing the legal scholar Cass Sunstein, Mr. Johnson observes that, although “groups often possess a rich mix of information distributed among their members,” when they assemble “they tend to focus on shared information.” Thus it is important to design a process that exposes “unshared information”—by meeting individually with stakeholders, for instance, instead of merely convening a town hall. Similarly, he cites research revealing that two-thirds of organizational decisions never contemplate more than a single option. There is a “gravitational pull toward the initial framing of the decision.” To overcome it, he suggests considering what might be done if the presumptive path forward were suddenly blocked....“Uncertainty can’t simply be analyzed out of existence,” ...What scenarios and simulations can offer is a way to “prepare you for the many ways that the future might unexpectedly veer.”..... Linear value modeling, for example, weighs the relative importance of different goals, while a bad-outcomes approach examines worst-case possibilities........given the challenges of making high-stakes global decisions. How should we respond, as a planet, to the challenges of addressing climate change, communicating with alien life forms or managing computers with superintelligence? The answer seems to be: by convening diverse experts and hoping for the best. ....... Great novels matter because “they let us experience parallel lives, and see the complexity of those experiences in vivid detail.”........ fundamentally, choices concern competing narratives, and we’re likely to make better choices if we have richer stories, with more fleshed-out characters, a more nuanced understanding of motives, and a deeper appreciation of how decisions are likely to reverberate and resound.
books  book_reviews  decision_making  far-sightedness  shared_experiences  Steven_Johnson  uncertainty  worst-case  scenario-planning  choices  novels  thinking_tragically  wide-framing  unshared_information  howto  narrow-framing  Cass_Sunstein 
8 weeks ago by jerryking
4 Ways to Pressure-Test Strategic Decisions, Inspired by the U.S. Military
1. Build situational awareness
2. Develop an outside-in perspective
3. Game it out (War Game)
4. Form diverse, strategic groups (strategic initiative groups)
strategic_planning  strategic_analysis  decisioning  decision_making 
9 weeks ago by tom.reeder
As Khashoggi crisis grows, Saudi king asserts authority, checks son's power: sources | Article [AMP] | Reuters
Initially the king, who has handed the day-to-day running of Saudi Arabia to his son, commonly known as MbS, was unaware of the extent of the crisis, according to two of the sources with knowledge of the Saudi royal court. That was partly because MbS aides had been directing the king to glowing news about the country on Saudi TV channels, the sources said.

"Even if MbS wanted to keep this away from the king he couldn't because the story about Khashoggi's disappearance was on all the Arab and Saudi TV channels watched by the king," one of the five sources said.

"The king started asking aides and MbS about it. MbS had to tell him and asked him to intervene when Khashoggi’s case became a global crisis," this source said.
dissident  Assassination  Saudi-Arabia  media  decision_making  MbS 
october 2018 by elizrael
From Anguished Appeal to Presidential Tweet: The Doctor Who Changed U.S. Policy - WSJ. Oct 18, 2018
Dr. Albezem and her group looked for a way to get to the president. Allies suggested they hire Trump fundraiser and lobbyist Brian Ballard.

When meeting him earlier this year, Dr. Albezem laid out in chilling terms what was happening in Syria. She vividly described the last seconds of a dying child’s life after a chemical attack.

Mr. Ballard says he was moved. But he didn’t think he could help them. Mr. Trump wasn’t an interventionist and was pushing to withdraw American troops from Syria as soon as possible.

Dr. Albezem persisted, and Mr. Ballard relented. He laid out various ways they could try to influence the president. If you want to make your case directly to Mr. Trump, Mr. Ballard told them, there are small roundtables where you can meet him. One such fundraiser happened to be coming up in a few weeks in Mar-a-Lago.

Dr. Albezem and her fellow activists raised the cash for two seats at an intimate roundtable at the president’s resort in Palm Beach, Fla. The price tag for two seats, according to activists, was $100,000. Dr. Albezem declined to comment on how much she raised for Mr. Trump and the Republican Party.

At the roundtable, the two women urged Mr. Trump to do more in Syria, and Mr. Trump asked aides to get him more information, Ms. Bouzo said.
Mar15  Idlib  Trump  lobby  Assad  activism  foreign_policy  decision_making 
october 2018 by elizrael
Bob Woodward’s new book, Fear: Trump in the White House, reviewed. - Slate, Sep 9, 2018
Woodward himself seems to suffer one of the same maladies as his sources: namely, the condition of thinking that a better version of Trump might exist out there. He rather solipsistically blames himself for saying some skeptical stuff about the FBI’s handling of the Russia case, which Trump saw and repeated. He even writes, “The episode played a big role in launching Trump’s war with the intelligence world, especially the FBI and Comey,” as if that war could have ever been averted given Trump’s contempt for democratic institutions and obvious corruption (which would inevitably get investigated). And sometimes, his quotes are just simply not believable as told or transcribed, which is a problem in most of his books on the last several presidencies. Of Afghanistan, Trump is reported to have said, “It’s a disaster there. It’s never going to be a functioning democracy.” I’d sooner believe the president sits up late at night reading Martin Luther King Jr. speeches than I would that he uses the phrase “functioning democracy” in casual conversation. I trust Woodward’s ability to decipher whether his sources are being honest more than I do Michael Wolff’s, whose dodgy book on the Trump presidency set a very low bar for works like this, but too much of Woodward’s narrative feels reliant on the firsthand accounts of a group of very untrustworthy people.

Where does all this leave John Kelly, the ultimate adult in the room who is often portrayed in the media as rubbing his temples in frustration with his toddler-like boss? Kelly enters and leaves meetings, gets angry and calms down, rants and raves, all to diminishing returns. He seems to find the president incurious and stupid and potentially dangerous, but nevertheless shares a slightly tamer version of his authoritarian instincts and disdain for immigrants. Despite supposedly exclaiming “We’re in Crazytown,” he also likes to pride himself on being “the only thing protecting the president from the press. … Everyone’s out to get us.” Like the other characters in the book, Kelly is insufficiently concerned about Trump’s contempt for democracy; unable to truly understand—regardless of his strong criticisms—how incapable of restraint Trump is; and compromised by his own sympathy for too much of the president’s agenda, which has a way of dulling any resistance to the worst aspects of it. If Trump won in part because of the bankruptcy of the Republican establishment and the withering of our institutions, it’s no surprise that the figures surrounding him are unequipped—intellectually, practically, and morally—for the current emergency.

Tweet
TrumpAdministration  Trump  decision_making 
october 2018 by elizrael
Turkey's Financial Crisis Shows the Risks of Strongmen - The Atlantic, Sep 24, 2018
Yet the problem with concentrating power is that the appetite tends to grow with the eating. And the more concentrated power gets, the more unaccountable it becomes. Meanwhile, personalized rule almost always subverts the very institutions that provide the real long-term foundation for sound public policy and economic dynamism: an independent, professional judiciary; a free press; and apolitical, qualified civil servants, regulators, and security services.

The result, unsurprisingly, is that while strongman regimes can be successful for a while, sometimes dazzlingly so, they usually end up reproducing the problems they were supposed to solve.

Self-correction also becomes harder in strongman regimes over time, as the information that makes its way to the top is increasingly only what the top wants to hear, creating a vicious feedback loop that reinforces mistakes rather than reverses them.
Turkey  economy  authoritarian_regime  decision_making 
october 2018 by elizrael

« earlier    

related tags

?  2011  2016uselections  accelerated_lifecycles  accountability  activism  advice  agile  ai  aid  algorithms  architecture  artificial_intelligence  assad  assassination  attack  attention_spans  authoritarian_regime  automation  automotive_industry  autonomous_vehicles  availability_bias  awareness  base_rates  bayes  behavioural_economics  biases  boards_&_directors_&_governance  bolton  book  book_reviews  books  brainstorming  bravery  budget  business  career_advice  career_growth  career_paths  cass_sunstein  cathy_o’neil  ceos  certainty  checklist  child-centred  childhood  children  choices  cia  clock_speed  coaching  collaboration  collaborative  colleges_&_universities  communicating_&_connecting  complexity  concentration  contagion  contemplation  creatividad  creativity  critical_thinking  criticism  cse  cyber_security  damascus  daniel_ellsberg  daniel_kahneman  data_driven  data_journalism  data_science  decisioning  decisionmaking  design  development  devil’s_advocates  dissension  dissent  dissident  diversity  doctor's_visits  doctors  documentation  dod  dopost  economia  economy  education  electric_cars  emprendurismo  execution  experimentation  facilitation  failure  fairness  far-sightedness  february_2018  football  ford  foreign_policy  foreignfighters  future  goldman_sachs  greek  groupthink  guardiola  gurus  gut_feelings  habits  hacking  harvard  hbr  health  herd_instincts  heterogeneity  hizbollah  holocaust  howto  idlib  independent_viewpoints  indicadores  influence  information_diffusion  information_overload  inspiration  intelligence  intelligence_assessment  internal_struggle  intervention  intuition  iq  iran.nuclearprogram  iran  iranianproxy  iraq  irving_wladawsky-berger  isis  israel  jerusalem  jim_hackett  khamenai  kodak  kushner  large_companies  leadership  leadership_skills  leak  lean  life_skills  lobby  localgovt  management  mar15  massive_data_sets  mbs  mckinsey  mcmaster  media  medical_communication  meetings  mental_bandwidth  mental_health  metacognition  metricas  metrics  mission+strategy  mistakes  models_of_behavior  mossad  multitasking  narrow-framing  negociacion  netanyahu  networks  neuroscience  new_york_times  novels  nsc  obama  obama_administration  obituaries  open_data  operational_tempo  organisation  organization_structure  outliers  overconfidence  palestine  parliament  peer_pressure  personal_payoffs  philip_delves_broughton  philip_mudd  philosophy  physicians  plain_english  politics  presenting_and_writing  pretense_of_knowledge  probabilities  problem_definition  problem_framing  process  product_management  productivity  psychology  pyd  qatar  questions  racionalidad  refactoring  reflections  research  resources  rextillerson  risk-assessment  robert_rubin  ron_miller(writer)  rouhani  russia  sanctions  saudi-arabia  scenario-planning  science  self-improvement  self_organization  sense-making  september_2018  shared_experiences  smartphones  spiritual_practice  spirituality  state_department  statistics  steven_johnson(writer)  steven_johnson  storytelling  strategic_analysis  strategic_planning  strategic_thinking  strategy  stressful  succession  susan_rice  teamwork  tech_crunch  technology  tension  the_big_picture  thinking_backwards  thinking_deliberatively  thinking_tragically  timing  tool  tools  trade-offs  tradeoffs  transparency  trends  tricia  tricia_wang  troublemakers  trump  trumpadministration  turkey  u.s.treasury_department  uae  unanimity  uncertainty  united_airlines  unknowns  unnamed_official  unshared_information  useatwork  video  visualisation  wall_street  wang  white_house  wide-framing  wisdom-thinking-skepticism  withdrawal  women  work  workplaces  worst-case  yemen  youth 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: