decision_making   1238

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books  decision_making 
5 days ago by guilleten
What is an Influence Diagram? | Analytica Software
"An influence diagram is an intuitive visual display of a decision problem. It depicts the key elements, including decisions, uncertainties, and objectives as nodes of various shapes and colors. It shows influences among them as arrows."
uncertainty  visualisation  decision_making  dopost 
16 days ago by niksilver
Piecing Together Narratives From the 0′s and 1′s: Storytelling in the Age of Big Data - CIO Journal. - WSJ
Feb 16, 2018 | WSJ | By Irving Wladawsky-Berger.

Probabilities are inherently hard to grasp, especially for an individual event like a war or an election, ......Why is it so hard for people to deal with probabilities in everyday life? “I think part of the answer lies with Kahneman’s insight: Human beings need a story,”....Mr. Kahneman explained their research in his 2011 bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow. Its central thesis is that our mind is composed of two very different systems of thinking. System 1 is the intuitive, fast and emotional part of our mind. Thoughts come automatically and very quickly to System 1, without us doing anything to make them happen. System 2, on the other hand, is the slower, logical, more deliberate part of the mind. It’s where we evaluate and choose between multiple options, because only System 2 can think of multiple things at once and shift its attention between them.

System 1 typically works by developing a coherent story based on the observations and facts at its disposal. Research has shown that the intuitive System 1 is actually more influential in our decisions, choices and judgements than we generally realize. But, while enabling us to act quickly, System 1 is prone to mistakes. It tends to be overconfident, creating the impression that we live in a world that’s more coherent and simpler than the actual real world. It suppresses complexity and information that might contradict its coherent story.

Making sense of probabilities, numbers and graphs requires us to engage System 2, which, for most everyone, takes quite a bit of focus, time and energy. Thus, most people will try to evaluate the information using a System 1 simple story: who will win the election? who will win the football game?.....Storytelling has played a central role in human communications since times immemorial. Over the centuries, the nature of storytelling has significantly evolved with the advent of writing and the emergence of new technologies that enabled stories to be embodied in a variety of media, including books, films, and TV. Everything else being equal, stories are our preferred way of absorbing information.

“It’s not enough to say an event has a 10 percent probability,” wrote Mr. Leonhardt. “People need a story that forces them to visualize the unlikely event – so they don’t round 10 to zero.”.....
storytelling  massive_data_sets  probabilities  Irving_Wladawsky-Berger  metacognition  complexity  uncertainty  Daniel_Kahneman  Communicating_&_Connecting  decision_making 
4 weeks ago by jerryking
How bad decision making could undermine good innovation | TechCrunch
"This example illustrates a classic case of disruption as defined by Clayton Christensen in his seminal book The Innovator’s Dilemma. But Wang sees a different cautionary tale here.

She believes the evidence suggests that, even though Kodak might not have understood the full extent of the digital future in front of it, neither did it completely cast it aside in a fit of blind self-interest.

Wang describes a scenario of decision making, which didn’t ignore disruption, but still resulted in the same unhappy outcome: bankruptcy and the shrinking of a once great industrial giant."
"“This really big idea [the digital camera], got shoehorned into a footnote of a footnote of a footnote as it traveled up the chain of command. Kodak discovered something new, but their decision making process didn’t account for it,” Wang explained. They had the right insight, but the way they invested in it had nothing to do with the original idea of a fully digital world.

To be fair, Wang points out that the kiosk wasn’t the only thing the company did with its digital patents, but it was a particularly telling one. “It illustrates very clearly how corporations can miss out on broad changes in consumer behavior and instead focus on incremental operational improvements to their existing businesses,” Wang said."
ron_miller(writer)  Tricia  Wang  tricia_wang  kodak  united_airlines  decision_making  tech_crunch  february_2018 
6 weeks ago by nickfury21
3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making
Walter Frick
JANUARY 22, 2018

Rule #1: Be less certain.
Nobel-prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman has said that overconfidence is the bias he’d eliminate first if he had a magic wand. It’s ubiquitous, particularly among men, the wealthy, and even experts. Overconfidence is not a universal phenomenon — it depends on factors including culture and personality — but the chances are good that you’re more confident about each step of the decision-making process than you ought to be.

So, the first rule of decision making is to just be less certain — about everything. Think choice A will lead to outcome B? It’s probably a bit less likely than you believe. Think outcome B is preferable to outcome C? You’re probably too confident about that as well.

Once you accept that you’re overconfident, you can revisit the logic of your decision. What else would you think about if you were less sure that A would cause B, or that B is preferable to C? Have you prepared for a dramatically different outcome than your expected one?

Rule #2: Ask “How often does that typically happen?”
....think about how long similar projects typically take....In general, research suggests, the best starting point for predictions ­— a key input into decision making — is to ask “How often does that typically happen?”
This rule, known as the base rate, comes up a lot in the research on prediction, but it might be helpful for the judgment side of decision making, too. If you think outcome B is preferable to outcome C, you might ask: How often has that historically been the case? ...The idea with both prediction and judgment is to get away from the “inside view,” where the specifics of the decision overwhelm your analysis. Instead, you want to take the “outside view,” where you start with similar cases before considering the specifics of your individual case.

Rule #3: Think probabilistically — and learn some basic probability.
The first two rules can be implemented right away; this one takes a bit of time. But it’s worth it. Research has shown that even relatively basic training in probability makes people better forecasters and helps them avoid certain cognitive biases....Improving your ability to think probabilistically will help you with the first two rules. You’ll be able to better express your uncertainty and to numerically think about “How often does this usually happen?” The three rules together are more powerful than any of them alone.

Even though these rules are all things you can start using relatively quickly, mastering them takes practice. In fact, after you use them for a little while, you may become overconfident about your ability to make decisions. Great decision makers don’t follow these rules only when facing a particularly difficult choice; they return to them all the time. They recognize that even seemingly easy decisions can be hard — and that they probably know less than they think
decision_making  pretense_of_knowledge  base_rates  probabilities  Daniel_Kahneman  overconfidence  biases  certainty 
8 weeks ago by jerryking
3 Ways to Improve Your Decision Making
Rule #1: Be less certain.
Rule #2: Ask “How often does that typically happen?”
Rule #3: Think probabilistically — and learn some basic probability.
decisioning  decision_making 
8 weeks ago by tom.reeder
Untangling your organization’s decision making | McKinsey & Company
ABCD Scope & Impact (narrow-broad) v Level of Familiarity (unfamiliar, infrequent- familiar, frequent)
- Ad hoc decisions
- Big-bet decisions
- Cross-cutting decisions (broad collaboration)
- Delegated decisions
decision_making  decisioning 
8 weeks ago by tom.reeder Tempo: timing, tactics and strategy in narrative-driven decision-making eBook: Venkatesh Rao: Kindle Store
Tempo: timing, tactics and strategy in narrative-driven decision-making - Kindle edition by Venkatesh Rao. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading Tempo: timing, tactics and strategy in narrative-driven decision-making.
decision_making  books 
8 weeks ago by guilleten
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business: Douglas W. Hubbard: 9780470539392: Books
Buy How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business on ✓ FREE SHIPPING on qualified orders
management  decision_making  books  metricas  indicadores 
9 weeks ago by guilleten
The Art of Creative Thinking: 89 Ways to See Things Differently: Rod Judkins: 9780399176838: Books
The Art of Creative Thinking: 89 Ways to See Things Differently [Rod Judkins] on *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. <b>Get ready to get inspired</b>   In short and engaging entries, this deceptively simple volume presents examples of creative thinkers from the worlds of writing
books  creatividad  decision_making  productivity 
9 weeks ago by guilleten

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