decision   3430

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The Disproportional Power of Anecdotes
increase your sample size when making decisions. You need enough information to be able to plot the range of possibilities, identify the outliers, and define the average.

"The Canadian Encyclopedia states, “If the nearly 29 million (figure unadjusted) in gold that was recovered during the heady years of 1897 to 1899 [in the Klondike] was divided equally among all those who participated in the gold rush, the amount would fall far short of the total they had invested in time and money.”

How did this happen? Because those miners took anecdotes as being representative of a broader reality. Quite literally, they learned mining from rumor, and didn’t develop any real knowledge. Most people fought for claims along the creeks, where easy gold had been discovered, while rejecting the bench claims on the hillsides above, which often had just as much gold.

You may be thinking that these men must have been desperate if they packed themselves up, heading into unknown territory, facing multiple dangers along the way, to chase a dream of easy money. But most of us aren’t that different. How many times have you invested in a “hot stock” on a tip from one person, only to have the company go under within a year? Ultimately, the smaller the sample size, the greater role the factors of chance play in determining an outcome.”

many scientific psychology studies use college students who are predominantly Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD), and then draw conclusions about the entire human race from these outliers. They reviewed scientific literature from domains such as “visual perception, fairness, cooperation, spatial reasoning, categorization and inferential induction, moral reasoning, and the heritability of IQ. The findings suggest that members of WEIRD societies, including young children, are among the least representative populations one could find for generalizing about humans.”
this particular subpopulation is highly unrepresentative of the species.”
decision  making  against  generalization  bias  gold 
3 days ago by dandv
Site Evaluators Reject Appeal Of Seacoast Power Line Approval | New Hampshire Public Radio
The state’s Site Evaluation Committee says it won’t reconsider its recent approval of a new transmission line on the Seacoast.
nhpr  SRP  sec  appeal  decision 
4 days ago by eversourcenh
The Art of Decision-Making | The New Yorker
In July of 1838, Charles Darwin was twenty-nine years old and single. Two years earlier, he had returned from his voyage aboard H.M.S. Beagle with the observations that would eventually form the basis of “On the Origin of Species.” In the meantime, he faced a more pressing analytical problem. via Pocket
IFTTT  Pocket  decision  making  science 
5 days ago by ChristopherA
SEC won't reconsider Seacoast Reliability Project - News - - Portsmouth, NH
On Thursday, state regulators denied motions to rehear and reconsider their approval of the Seacoast Reliability Project that the town of Durham, the Durham residents group and the Conservation Law Foundation filed in March.
seacoastonline  InDepthNH  SRP  sec  rehearing  decision 
7 days ago by eversourcenh
Who Will Win?
"The wider market is decision support. The goal is to improve organizational decision-making by unleashing the power of analytics. The supply chain planning market is narrow and used by only 3-5% of back office personnel. The new goal is decision support for the masses. The new solutions deliver answers better, faster and easier. Today’s solutions are expensive, long to deploy and hard to use. The greater the M&A activity, the worse the issue. (JDA, E2Open, Infor, and Logility grew through acquisitions.)"
uncategorized  analytics  anaplan  decision  support  supply  chain  excellence  planning 
8 days ago by jonerp
NCAA 2019 Finals 149 Ashnault vs Jordan
<a rel="nofollow" href="">NCAA 2019 Finals 149 Ashnault vs Jordan</a><br />
<a rel="nofollow" href="">NCAA 2019 Finals 149 Ashnault vs Jordan</a><br />
<a rel="nofollow" href="">NCAA 2019 Finals 149 Ashnault vs Jordan</a><br />
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<p>NCAA 2019 Finals 149 Ashnault vs Jordan I do not own the video or clips used in this film. All rights go the rightful owners. NCAA,NCAA WRESTLING,ASHNAULT,JORDAN,MICAH JORDAN,RUTGERS,OHIO STATE,NCAA FINALS,2019,WRESTLING,149,149 FINALS,TAKEDOWN,DECISION,ASHNAULT VS JORDAN,JORDAN VS ASHNAULT  4.74  10:18   2019  source</p>
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8 days ago by snapeplus
Workflow and Decision Automation Platform | Camunda BPM
Open source platform for BPMN workflow and DMN decision automation. Download now.
automation  decision  engine  workflow  bpmn  software  camunda  opensource 
9 days ago by fmjrey
3 Carbon Dioxide | Emergency and Continuous Exposure Guidance Levels for Selected Submarine Contaminants: Volume 1 | The National Academies Press
Hrm, pages 53-55 suggest actual issues only in the 25000 ppm range, not the 1400ppm suggested by the harvard study, derived from submarine crew studies, but some of the studies had not a lot of study participants, and US Navy standards and expectations for crew may be somewhat different (currently they try to keep average 3500ppm and try to keep below 8000ppm, but they are also in a long term exposure environment where the body may adapt)(previously 4,100 ppm average with a range of 300-11,300 ppm)...
CO2  air  quality  health  medicine  safety  decision  navy  submarine  crew 
4 weeks ago by asteroza

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